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The Harvest Stakes Festival headlines today’s card at Laurel Park, featuring the $100,000 Safely Kept Stakes for three-year-old fillies and the $100,000 City of Laurel Stakes for three-year-old males. Both stakes races attracted full fields with quality entries, making for an exciting afternoon of racing. First post time is 12:00 PM ET, with a nine-race card offering several competitive wagering opportunities including a Chesapeake Jackpot Pick 6 carryover of $356 in races 4-9.
Weather and Track Conditions
Today’s weather forecast calls for sunny skies with a high temperature around 42-46°F and overnight lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. Winds will be light out of the west-northwest. The dry conditions should produce a fast main track surface, which has been the predominant condition throughout November at Laurel. The lack of precipitation over the past few days suggests the track will remain sealed and favorable for speed horses who can control the early pace.
Track superintendent crews have maintained excellent conditions throughout the fall meeting. The rail is positioned in its standard location, and no significant maintenance changes are expected for today’s card.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
Laurel Park’s one-mile track exhibits a notable inside post position bias, particularly at the 1 1/16-mile distance. Historical data demonstrates that the rail position produces a statistically significant advantage, with horses breaking from post one showing win rates that would generate a profit of approximately 16% per wagered dollar over time. This bias intensifies with front-running horses, as early speed combined with the rail creates a compounding advantage.
At sprint distances, the inside posts remain favorable but to a lesser degree. In sprints at six and seven furlongs, the outside posts are not as detrimental provided horses can establish early position. However, horses drawn widest in full fields still face disadvantages in longer races around two turns.
Recent racing at Laurel has shown a tendency toward speed-favoring conditions when the track is fast, though several sessions in November showed closer-friendly surfaces when the track was wet. Today’s expected fast surface should generally favor horses who can establish tactical position early.
Race 1 – Maiden Claiming $12,500
Post Time: 12:00 PM ET
Fillies and Mares, 3-6 Years Old, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $22,000
Pace Analysis
This twelve-horse field features modest early speed with Tea Rose, Justtakethecannoli, and Amadea likely to contest the early fractions. The pace scenario projects to be honest but manageable, with multiple runners showing tactical speed that should create a moderate tempo through opening fractions of around 23 seconds and 46 seconds to the half.
Key Contenders
Over My Cents enters this spot with the sharpest recent figures in the field, having finished third in her last two starts against $25,000 maidens. She ran Brisnet figures of at least 69 in both of those efforts, which surpasses almost anything her rivals have accomplished on dirt. The drop to career-low claiming level should position her favorably, though the extreme outside draw (post 12) presents a tactical challenge in a full field. Trainer Rodolfo Sanchez-Salomon has been effective with class drops, and Yan Rodriguez takes the mount.
Justtakethecannoli was claimed out of her last start at Keeneland by Jamie Ness and makes her Maryland debut with Yedsit Hazlewood aboard. She showed speed in her most recent effort before stopping badly, but her two-back performance at Churchill Downs was much stronger. She sat just off the pace, pulled clear late, but got caught in the final stages. The addition of Ness, who wins at 21% at the current meet, and leading rider Hazlewood creates an attractive combination.
Tea Rose is listed as the morning line favorite at 4.5-1 and will likely show early speed from the rail position. The veteran five-year-old mare from the W. Thomas McMahon barn has the tactical advantage of the inside draw but must prove she can sustain her speed against these rivals.
Secondary Choices
Irish B Goode comes off a second-place effort behind the heavily-favored Destination, who won by eleven lengths. That runner was clearly much the best, and Irish B Goode got up for second after a wide trip with a respectable 65 figure. She has consistently run in the 60s throughout the year and represents value at her projected 20-1 morning line price if she gets a cleaner trip today.
Autumn in Vermont ran fourth in her most recent effort while racing extremely wide and trying to close into a slow pace on a speed-favoring surface. She deserves an upgrade off that trip and is making her second start off a layoff, which should produce improvement. The Carlos Mancilla trainee fits with these and could be live at a price.
Longshots
Fifth Gear deserves mention at a big price after a troubled debut where she bumped at the start, raced extremely wide, and faded while attempting to close into a slow pace on a speed-favoring track. This was her first start off a layoff, and second-time starters typically improve. The Phillip Capuano trainee has shown ability to race more prominently and could surprise if everything goes right.
Gotta Be Da Shoes has encountered significant traffic trouble in her last two starts, including being forced to check sharply when a rival plummeted into her path on the far turn last out. She finished closer than expected under the circumstances and has shown enough to warrant inclusion on exotic tickets at a long price. The switch to dirt is an unknown factor.
Selections
Win: Over My Cents (12)
Place: Justtakethecannoli (3)
Show: Irish B Goode (8)
Race 2 – Claiming $7,500 (Conditioned)
Post Time: 12:32 PM ET
Three Year Olds and Upward, 1 1/16 Miles Dirt, Purse $18,000
Pace Analysis
Masakado projects as the likely speed from the rail, with Energy Efficient potentially showing early interest. Hay Chief possesses the best sustained speed figures in the field and should sit just off the pace early before launching his run on the far turn. The pace setup appears honest, which should benefit the late-running types.
Key Contenders
B Dawk ran a solid 82 Brisnet figure first off a three-and-a-half-month layoff last out, finishing third behind a pair of next-out winners in Uncle Irish and Passioned, both of whom returned to win as favorites. This one has consistently run in the 80s throughout 2025 and should turn in an improved effort second off the bench. Trainer Hugh McMahon has positioned this horse well after dropping from upper-level allowance company where he couldn’t make a dent.
Hay Chief earned the best last-out figure in the field despite a troubled trip where he was squeezed back at the start and forced to close from over fifteen lengths behind on a speed-favoring track while racing four to seven paths wide throughout. He took a big drop to this level last out and overcame early traffic to finish third behind Passioned. His sustained speed figures are the best in the field, and third off the layoff pattern suggests further improvement.
Masakado goes first off the re-claim by Anthony Farrior, who had him earlier this year and won with him at Mahoning Valley. He looks like the primary speed on the rail and benefits significantly from the inside post position bias at this distance. If he gets loose on an uncontested lead, he could prove difficult to catch.
Secondary Choices
Energy Efficient may show tactical speed from post eight and has been competitive at this level. The Richard Sillaman trainee has the right running style to be dangerous if the pace sets up for him.
Mr. Hustle is an interesting contender for Jamie Ness at 9-2 morning line despite his age (8). He was scratched by the trainer from his most recent engagement and enters fresh for this spot. The veteran has shown class throughout his career and could be live if properly spotted here.
Longshots
Running River at 15-1 represents a bomb possibility for Samuel Davis. The five-year-old gelding has tactical speed and could surprise if overlooked by the wagering public.
Selections
Win: Hay Chief (7)
Place: B Dawk (4)
Show: Masakado (1)
Race 3 – Maiden Special Weight
Post Time: 1:03 PM ET
Two Year Olds, 7 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $47,000
Pace Analysis
Pont Aven and Awesome Andy both figure to show early speed, creating a potentially contested pace scenario. The two can battle through moderate fractions while Gotta Get It Right and others track from stalking positions. The pace should be honest enough to allow late runners a chance.
Key Contenders
Awesome Andy enters as the 8-5 morning line favorite after impressive performances in his first two starts. He improved to an 80 Brisnet figure second time out but was no match for a pair of impressive first-time starters in Hometown Bound and Crossingthechannel. The Gary Capuano trainee has a legitimate chance to break through in this field provided no one else shows significant improvement.
Pont Aven was scratched sick from a similar spot two weeks ago and resurfaces with blinkers added. He was bet like a good thing on debut, going off as the 11-10 favorite, and battled on the lead before finishing third behind the well-regarded Tartabull. He contested the pace between horses throughout in his debut, which is a trickier position than it appears. A solid debut effort that he can improve upon second time out with equipment changes.
Gotta Get It Right went off favored on debut but missed the break and finished fourth in a grass race despite traffic trouble. Graham Motion runners tend to do better at second asking than first. He gave away ground racing wide, was bumped twice in the stretch, and looked green throughout. The stretch out to seven furlongs on dirt is an unknown, but Motion has shown he can develop talent.
Secondary Choices
Rhodes represents the Brittany Russell barn at 6-1 morning line with Jevian Toledo aboard. Russell’s excellent 33% win rate at the current meet makes any runner from her barn worth respect.
Very Volatile carries an 8-1 morning line for Gary Capuano and Yedsit Hazlewood. He was a main-track-only entry in his last appearance and is entered with the same condition again. The Capuano-Hazlewood combination has been excellent during the fall meet.
Longshots
House of David and King of Salsa at longer odds could surprise if the favorites falter. Both Michelle Nihei trainees are making their debuts and represent unknowns in the field.
Selections
Win: Awesome Andy (6)
Place: Pont Aven (3)
Show: Gotta Get It Right (5)
Race 4 – Allowance (N/W1X), MD-Restricted
Post Time: 1:32 PM ET
Fillies and Mares, 3 Years Old and Upward, 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $48,000
Pace Analysis
Rina Is Fire projects to show early speed and may attempt to cross over and take control from post ten. Yo Adrian has tactical speed as well, and the pace scenario should develop into a moderate to honest tempo. The short sprint distance means early position will be crucial.
Key Contenders
Rina Is Fire crushed a maiden field first off an eight-and-a-half-month layoff last out, running in the 80s for the second time in as many career starts. She faces a relatively easy field for her first start against winners and appears fast enough to cross from her outside draw, clear, and draw away. The Gary Capuano trainee benefits from the potent Capuano-Hazlewood combination that has been so successful at the meet.
She’s a Gem set an ambitious early pace last out and held second behind Pinotslilgirl, who’s much better than almost everyone in this field. This one won twice in a row earlier in the year with stalk-and-pounce trips and might be best off trying to work out something similar today. At 8-1 morning line, she offers value with Yan Rodriguez in the irons.
Society Ball races first off the Jamie Ness claim and is one of two in here for the Ness barn. Handicappers give her the edge over stablemate Yo Adrian, considering this one is more experienced on dirt and has good closing speed that should earn her at least a share.
Secondary Choices
Yo Adrian is the other Jamie Ness entrant in the field. She makes her second start off the claim for the powerful Ness operation and benefits from Martin Chuan in the irons. The three-year-old filly has shown enough early to warrant consideration.
Touisset was a trainer scratch in her last outing and may be freshened up for this spot. The Allard trainee has tactical ability and fits with these Maryland-breds.
Longshots
Sheherhers at 20-1 represents a price play from post one. The rail draw is advantageous at Laurel, and if she breaks sharply, she could steal away on the inside while the favorites sort themselves out.
Selections
Win: Rina Is Fire (10)
Place: She’s a Gem (8)
Show: Society Ball (4)
Race 5 – Starter Optional Claiming $20,000
Post Time: 2:02 PM ET
Three Year Olds and Upward, 1 1/16 Miles Dirt, Purse $29,000
Pace Analysis
This race lacks significant early speed, which creates an intriguing pace scenario. Tidal Forces has the best early pace figures and will likely be sent to establish position, but no other runners are committed to pressing the pace. Dolice Vita could have the race fall into his lap if he gets loose on the lead. The lack of early pace should benefit front-runners and stalkers.
Key Contenders
Tidal Forces enters as the 2-1 morning line favorite with the best early pace figures in the field. The seven-year-old gelding has shown the ability to run well from on or off the pace and is likely to be put into play early by Mychel Sanchez. Trainer Jamie Ness has positioned this veteran well throughout his career.
Armando R struggled for a while against stakes-quality competition but has found his niche at this level with back-to-back wins. The nine-year-old veteran typically sits well off the early pace and times his run perfectly. Note that regular rider Horacio Karamanos is not aboard, but replacement Yedsit Hazlewood is more than capable.
Dolice Vita rallied well for second in the Maryland Million Starter Handicap last out, his second start off a five-and-a-half-month break. He won twice at Laurel over the winter against slightly softer and is clearly in fine form. His exceptional 5-3-2 record from 13 starts at 1 1/16 miles at Laurel speaks for itself. With the lack of early pace, he could wire this field if allowed an easy lead.
Secondary Choices
Be Better at 7-2 morning line has shown competitiveness at this level and could be a factor in the stretch run with Carlos Lopez aboard for trainer Kieron Magee.
Style Me Royal at 6-1 was a trainer scratch from his last engagement and enters fresh for Edward Maher. The four-year-old gelding fits with these.
Longshots
Catatumbo earned an upgrade off his last effort where he endured a wide trip and closed on a speed-favoring racetrack. At 12-1 morning line, he represents value if the pace scenario sets up for closers.
Selections
Win: Dolice Vita (4)
Place: Tidal Forces (7)
Show: Armando R (3)
Race 6 – Maiden Claiming $16,000
Post Time: 2:32 PM ET
Two Year Old Fillies, 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $24,000
Pace Analysis
Several runners in this juvenile filly field should show early speed, including Only Maria and Back Wall Bandit. The pace scenario projects to be honest with multiple runners likely to contest the early fractions. The Super High Five carryover of $1,053 adds wagering interest.
Key Contenders
Only Maria ran no worse than a 58 Brisnet figure in three dirt starts to begin her career, all against higher-priced rivals. She regressed in her last two starts on grass but should improve switching back to the main track. The W. Thomas McMahon trainee has the experience edge over many in this field and draws well in post six with Jevian Toledo aboard.
Back Wall Bandit takes a career-low drop in class with a similar figure pattern to Only Maria. She ran a big race on the lead two starts back, holding second while outfinishing dueling partner Fiesta La Luna, who broke her maiden next out. She was a main-track-only entry in her most recent start.
Spring Training won a blanket finish for second on debut behind Fiesta La Luna, a strong effort considering she was the only first-time starter in the field. She faces a tougher bunch than last time but has room for improvement second out.
Secondary Choices
Maxpower at 6-1 represents Claudio Gonzalez with Kevin Gomez up. The two-year-old filly has been working steadily and could improve in her second career start.
Bulma showed some ability in her most recent start before being shuffled back and not staying a mile. The cutback to 5 1/2 furlongs makes sense provided she has pace to run at. The Gonzalez-Hazlewood combination has been potent.
Longshots
Fortune Seer at a big price for Anthony Farrior could surprise if overlooked. The lightly weighted two-year-old filly has been training steadily.
Selections
Win: Back Wall Bandit (9)
Place: Only Maria (6)
Show: Spring Training (2)
Race 7 – The Safely Kept Stakes
Post Time: 3:02 PM ET
Three Year Old Fillies, 7 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $100,000
This stakes race honors the Maryland-bred winner of the 1990 Breeders’ Cup Sprint. The field of eleven three-year-old fillies features several accomplished runners. Note that Mega Mil ran at Parx on Wednesday and is expected to scratch.
Pace Analysis
The pace scenario projects to be contentious with Tap Dancin Cowgirl, Reputation, and Zip Start all possessing tactical speed. This should create honest fractions that favor late-running types like Grayson’s Girl and Passage East. The predicted fast pace scenario could set up perfectly for closers.
Key Contenders
Reputation ran away with the Tyson Gilpin Stakes at Colonial Downs two starts back, then held her own against older rivals with a third-place effort in Gulfstream Park’s Princess Rooney Stakes in her most recent start. The Gustavo Delgado trainee is primed to get a great trip and draw away with ease. Conditioned by the Kentucky Derby-winning trainer, Reputation is the 3-1 favorite on the morning line and has the class edge.
Onyx Ten scratched from last Saturday’s Willa On the Move Stakes in favor of this race. She took the step forward she needed second off the bench in the Maryland Million Distaff, rallying down the center of the track to earn her third stakes win at Laurel this year. The Gary Capuano trainee should be even better third off the layoff for the incredible duo of Capuano and Yedsit Hazlewood. Her three stakes wins in 2025 include the Xtra Heat Stakes and the Maryland Million Distaff.
Grayson’s Girl has hit the board in each of her eight career starts, including a determined win last out against first-level Maryland-restricted rivals. She hasn’t run a bad race at Laurel this year, has great late pace figures, and should be a great price at her 15-1 morning line. The Brittany Russell trainee represents excellent value with Jevian Toledo aboard.
Secondary Choices
Zip Start at 5-1 morning line represents the Jeff Runco barn with Arnaldo Bocachica aboard. The West Virginia shipper has tactical speed and fits with these at the distance.
Conquerthosewecan at 8-1 gives Brittany Russell a second entrant in the stakes. The homebred for Sycamore Hall Thoroughbreds has been competitive at this level with husband Sheldon Russell in the irons.
Passage East was pace-compromised in her last start, finishing third in a four-horse field while wide throughout. She produced an even finish but lacked the gears to truly threaten late against a slow pace. Expect more if the predicted fast pace materializes this afternoon.
Longshots
Think Fast at 12-1 represents Hugh McMahon and has shown enough to be dangerous if overlooked. She was a main-track-only scratch in her most recent engagement.
Late Nite Call at 30-1 could surprise at a huge price if the pace melts down and chaos ensues.
Selections
Win: Reputation (2)
Place: Onyx Ten (4)
Show: Grayson’s Girl (7)
Race 8 – The City of Laurel Stakes (Listed)
Post Time: 3:33 PM ET
Three Year Olds, 7 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $100,000
This listed stakes for three-year-olds features a talented field of twelve. Note that Saxton ran against older rivals on Friday and will not go today.
Pace Analysis
Several runners possess early speed including Light Forever, Spotafreeone, and Pay Billy, which should create an honest to fast pace scenario. Slam Notion can sit just off the leaders before making his move, while closers like Pascaline and Bold Diversion will benefit from any speed duel up front.
Key Contenders
Slam Notion sat off the pace and pulled away in the stretch to win the Maryland Million Sprint last out, running in the 90s for the third consecutive dirt race. The W. Robert Bailes trainee loves Laurel Park and has improved throughout his sophomore campaign. Jevian Toledo has the call again after their successful partnership on Maryland Million Day.
Chipotle looked like a star in the waiting for most of the year, winning five of six races with improving figures. He finished a game fourth in the New Castle Stakes in September, then got some time off after a flat fifth in early October. Considering his figures aren’t far off from Slam Notion’s but he’ll be a much better price at 12-1, he offers significant value.
Bold Diversion was fourth to Slam Notion in the Maryland Million Sprint, then came back to swoop a Maryland-restricted group last out. He has the best late pace figures in the race and endured a very wide trip in his last victory, warranting an upgrade. He could prove especially dangerous with the right trip today.
Secondary Choices
Otter Mischief at 7-2 morning line represents the Guadalupe Preciado barn. The three-year-old colt has been competitive at this level and fits with these.
Spotafreeone at 6-1 ships from the Jeff Runco barn with Arnaldo Bocachica aboard. He won the race where Pascaline was boxed in and troubled, so he enters with a solid chance.
Pay Billy at 10-1 won the Tesio Stakes earlier this year and represents Michael Gorham. The seven-furlong distance may be a bit short for his best.
Longshots
Pascaline may look overmatched at first glance, but his one-turn resume suggests he’s a much livelier longshot than his 12-1 morning line implies. He’s run three times around one turn, finishing first, first, and third while earning improving Beyers. His most recent start at Charles Town was better than it reads on paper; he was bottled up behind horses on the far turn and had to wait, then angle out to the four path for running room, costing him momentum. Now gelded since that effort, he could show improvement. Trainer Arnaud Delacour won consecutive Laurel Futurities with this colt in 2024.
Selections
Win: Slam Notion (8)
Place: Chipotle (9)
Show: Bold Diversion (5)
Race 9 – Starter Optional Claiming $20,000
Post Time: 4:04 PM ET
Three Year Olds and Upward, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $29,000
Pace Analysis
Several runners possess early speed in this finale, including Magic Spin, Monday Morning Qb, and Freeze the Fire. The pace scenario should develop into an honest tempo with multiple runners vying for position through the opening quarter.
Key Contenders
Monday Morning Qb improved twelve points to an 87 Brisnet figure second off an eight-month layoff last out, where he rallied well and just missed against a similar field. The classy veteran looks poised to put it together this time for trainer Henry Walters.
Magic Spin was fifth behind Monday Morning Qb last out in a game effort. He closed down the center of the track and briefly had his nose in front, only to be done in by the effects of his overland journey. He also had to steady slightly in deep stretch, costing him position. He’s been consistently sharp all year and should pack a stronger punch with a better trip. Jevian Toledo takes the call for Jonathan Maldonado.
Freeze the Fire has found his best self lately with back-to-back wins after starting the year 0-for-8. He defeated B West in his last start, who returned to beat a field similar in quality to this one. The John Salzman trainee draws well in post three.
Secondary Choices
Brother Conway at 7-2 morning line represents Anthony Farrior with apprentice Warren Ebow claiming five pounds. The six-year-old gelding has shown competitiveness at this level.
Noble Jon was traveling well in a nice position when forced to check sharply at a crucial stage of his last race, losing all chance. He was not persevered with in the final furlong, exaggerating the margin of defeat. This race should be tossed, and at 6-1 he could surprise if forgiven for that troubled effort.
Longshots
El Divino Nino at 8-1 represents Rodolfo Sanchez-Salomon and could factor if the pace sets up for him.
Executive Power at 12-1 for Ferris Allen III rounds out the field and has shown enough ability to be considered on exotic tickets.
Selections
Win: Monday Morning Qb (5)
Place: Magic Spin (6)
Show: Freeze the Fire (3)
Jockey Notes and Insights
Yedsit Hazlewood leads the current Laurel Park fall meeting jockey standings with 46 wins from 206 mounts, good for a 22% win rate and 52% in-the-money percentage with over $1.6 million in purse earnings. The teenage apprentice from Panama has been the story of the fall meet, having posted his first winners in early April and quickly establishing himself as one of the most reliable riders in the colony. He was named Jockey of the Week by the Jockeys’ Guild and earned his first stakes win aboard Onyx Ten in the Maryland Million Distaff. Today he has quality mounts throughout the card including Justtakethecannoli in Race 1, Armando R in Race 5, Rina Is Fire in Race 4, and Onyx Ten in the Safely Kept Stakes.
Jorge Ruiz ranks second with 33 wins from 139 mounts at a 24% clip. The Argentine native turns 40 in November and has shown excellent late-race judgment throughout the meet. He has the call on the morning line favorite Reputation in the Safely Kept Stakes.
Jevian Toledo sits third with 26 wins from 178 mounts (15% win rate). He has developed a strong partnership with trainer Robbie Bailes and will ride Slam Notion in the City of Laurel Stakes, where the duo won the Maryland Million Sprint. Toledo became the all-time leading jockey in Maryland Million history with 21 victories on Maryland Million Day.
Sheldon Russell is fourth with 25 wins from 95 mounts, an excellent 26% strike rate. He primarily rides for wife Brittany Russell and will be aboard Conquerthosewecan in the Safely Kept Stakes and potentially Saxton (if he runs) in the City of Laurel.
Mychel Sanchez rounds out the top five with 22 wins from 158 mounts. He has quality assignments today including Tidal Forces in Race 5 and Light Forever in Race 8.
Kevin Gomez continues his comeback from a broken collarbone suffered in October 2024 and has the call on Maxpower in Race 6 and Amadea in Race 1.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Brittany Russell leads all trainers at the current Laurel Park meeting with a dominant 35 wins from 105 starters, good for a remarkable 33% win rate and 59% in-the-money percentage. She won her second consecutive annual Maryland training title in 2024 with 113 victories at Laurel and Pimlico. Russell saddles Grayson’s Girl and Conquerthosewecan in the Safely Kept Stakes. Her runners always deserve respect, and she has positioned both fillies well for this stakes engagement.
Jamie Ness sits second with 21 wins from 100 starters (21% win rate, 53% in-the-money). The South Dakota State graduate has been a mainstay in Maryland for years, accumulating over 4,800 career victories nationwide. He has multiple entrants today including Justtakethecannoli, Tidal Forces, Yo Adrian, and Society Ball. His claim horses typically improve upon joining the barn.
Gary Capuano ranks among the leading trainers with an exceptional 32% win rate and 79% in-the-money percentage from 34 starters. His partnership with apprentice Yedsit Hazlewood has been extraordinarily successful. Today he saddles Awesome Andy in Race 3, Rina Is Fire in Race 4, and Onyx Ten in the Safely Kept Stakes. Onyx Ten seeks her third consecutive victory and fourth stakes win of 2025.
W. Robert Bailes conditions Maryland Million Sprint winner Slam Notion, who is the morning line favorite in the City of Laurel Stakes. The partnership with Eric Rizer has produced multiple stakes winners including both Slam Notion and Slewpertitus on Maryland Million Day.
Gustavo Delgado trains Safely Kept Stakes favorite Reputation. The Kentucky Derby-winning conditioner (2023 with Mage) has developed this Bolt d’Oro filly patiently and positions her to peak today.
Hugh McMahon has B Dawk in Race 2 and Think Fast and Passage East in the Safely Kept Stakes. His runners often improve second off layoffs and merit respect when dropped in class.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The Chesapeake Jackpot Pick 6 carryover of $356 covering races 4-9 offers an excellent opportunity for serious bettors willing to spread in the two stakes races. The key to attacking this sequence lies in identifying vulnerable favorites and spreading to live longshots in the stakes events.
In Race 4, Rina Is Fire appears formidable but may be overbet. Singling her is acceptable, but including She’s a Gem at 8-1 and Society Ball at 10-1 provides protection.
Race 5 presents an excellent spreading opportunity. Dolice Vita at 9-2 offers value as a single given the lack of early pace, but including Tidal Forces and Armando R provides backup.
The Safely Kept Stakes (Race 7) requires spreading to multiple runners. Reputation deserves respect, but Onyx Ten at 4-1 and Grayson’s Girl at 15-1 offer value. The McMahon runners Think Fast (12-1) and Passage East (8-1) could benefit from the expected fast pace.
The City of Laurel Stakes (Race 8) is another race to spread. Slam Notion is logical but beatable. Chipotle at 12-1 offers excellent value, and Pascaline at 12-1 represents a live longshot who was better than his last effort suggests.
Race 9 offers a competitive finale where spreading to multiple runners is advisable. Monday Morning Qb, Magic Spin, and Freeze the Fire all have legitimate chances.
Best Bets:
- Hay Chief (Race 2) at 5-2 offers value off an upgradable effort where he closed from fifteen lengths back on a speed-favoring track while seven paths wide.
- Dolice Vita (Race 5) at 9-2 with no speed to press him in this field and an excellent record at 1 1/16 miles at Laurel.
- Chipotle (Race 8) at 12-1 offers significant overlay value given his figures aren’t far off the favorite.
Value Plays:
- Grayson’s Girl (Race 7) at 15-1 has hit the board in all eight career starts and has excellent late pace figures.
- Pascaline (Race 8) at 12-1 was better than his last effort suggests and is now gelded for trainer Arnaud Delacour.
- Catatumbo (Race 5) at 12-1 closed on a speed-favoring track while wide last out and deserves an upgrade.
Exotic Suggestions:
- Early Pick 5 (Races 1-5): Key Hay Chief in Race 2 and Dolice Vita in Race 5, spreading in the opener and Race 4.
- Late Pick 5 (Races 5-9): Spread extensively in both stakes races while singling Dolice Vita in Race 5 and Monday Morning Qb in Race 9.
- Pick 4 (Races 4-7): Spread in both the allowance and stakes races, keying the most logical winners while including value plays at longer odds.
