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Today’s nine-race card at Fair Grounds features a competitive mix of claiming events, allowance races, maiden special weight, and the featured Pan Zareta Stakes. The program offers a balance of dirt and turf races with purses ranging from $14,000 claiming events to the $100,000 stakes race. Field sizes are generally healthy, particularly in the maiden events, providing solid betting opportunities throughout the afternoon. The card is dominated by Louisiana-bred restricted races, which is characteristic of Fair Grounds’ winter meet.
Weather and Track Conditions
Partly sunny skies are expected for this Saturday afternoon in New Orleans with temperatures reaching the upper 60s. Southeast winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph may create some drying conditions on the main track surface. The dirt track is currently rated Fast, providing an optimal surface for racing. The turf course is rated Firm with excellent moisture levels, offering a resilient surface that yields slightly underfoot without excessive softness. The rail is set at 7 feet for turf races, which is standard for this configuration.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
Fair Grounds exhibits distinct biases that handicappers must factor into today’s analysis. On dirt sprints at six furlongs, there is a mild speed bias with inside posts holding a significant advantage. Horses breaking from posts 1-3 win 53% of dirt sprints, while posts 4-6 account for 35% of winners and outside posts 7+ only 12%. Wire-to-wire winners dominate at 46% in dirt sprints, with stalkers capturing 32% and closers just 22%. The average field size of 7.75 runners means positioning is critical, with winners averaging 2.72 place at the first call and 2.41 place at the second call.
For dirt routes, inside posts remain advantageous with posts 1-3 winning 50% of races. Speed horses maintain a 39% win rate, stalkers 32%, and closers 29%. On turf routes, the bias shifts dramatically in favor of late runners. Closers win 49% of turf routes, with stalkers at 38% and speed horses only 22%. Post position matters less on turf, though inside posts still show slightly lower win rates in sprints. Turf sprints at 5.5 furlongs see more balanced distributions, but posts 1-3 historically win the fewest races, making middle and outside draws more attractive.
Race 1 – Claiming
Post Time
12:45PM CST
Pace Analysis
This Louisiana-bred claiming sprint features several confirmed speed types that will ensure a contested early pace. Sono, Ampitup, and Country Guy have all shown early foot in recent starts and will likely push for the lead. The pace should be honest but not suicidal given the $5,000 claiming level, setting up for a stalker or close-up runner to make the winning move turning for home. The inside post advantage is significant here.
Key Contenders
Totally Addicted drops to the lowest level of his career and gets a favorable outside post for his running style. The eight-year-old gelding has faced much tougher company and should find this field more manageable. The Rea-Hunter combination has been profitable at this meet. Cajun Cyclone ships in from Louisiana downs with a consistent record and adds Lasix for the first time. The Rodriguez-Mojica team excels with class droppers. Handome Harold exits a sharp effort against similar company and retains McMahon, who has been riding confidently.
Secondary Choices
Sono has tactical speed from the rail and Lopez Paco knows how to save ground on this track. The Bourgeois barn wins at 22% with horses making their second start off a layoff. Ampitup drops in class for the Foster team and gets a weight allowance as a three-year-old facing older horses. Country Guy has early speed but may be compromised by the rail draw in a field with other speed.
Longshots
Apriority Rocket makes his first start for Thomas Lee but showed some ability in Texas-bred company. The Hernandez-Colby J. combo has been live at the meet. Hooray Austin is the experienced nine-year-old who knows how to win at this level and gets the services of Magnon Devin H., who excels on speed types.
Betting Strategy
The likely fast pace sets up perfectly for Totally Addicted to come from off the pace. Consider an exacta box with Totally Addicted over Cajun Cyclone and Handome Harold. Trifecta players should include Sono on the bottom for value.
Selections
Win: Totally Addicted
Place: Cajun Cyclone
Show: Handome Harold
Race 2 – Claiming
Post Time
1:15PM CST
Pace Analysis
Several front-running fillies and mares will ensure a lively tempo. Foxy Zorra, Hittin My Stride, and Smart Izzy all prefer to be on or near the lead. The six-furlong distance favors early speed, and the inside post bias should help the front runners. Expect a fast opening quarter-mile with the field sorting itself out midway through the turn.
Key Contenders
Sister Saint drops from allowance company and picks up Albert Treylon S., who has been riding with confidence. The Burkes barn wins at 18% with class droppers. Jessica Blah Blah has been competitive at this level and gets Castillo Isaac, who excels on speed types. The Lorefice barn ships in from Hawthorne with winning form. Hittin My Stride has early speed from post 3 and Cannon Declan knows how to rate these front-runners.
Secondary Choices
Foxy Zorra is the class of the field on paper but may be overbet dropping from starter allowance company. The Rosin barn is solid but this filly has been off since October. Ageless Union makes her first start for Foster and gets Mitchell Murrill, who has been the meet’s leading rider. Smart Izzy has back class but must overcome the outside post.
Longshots
Chief Express is the only three-year-old in the field and gets a four-pound weight allowance. The Lopez-Ramirez combo has been live at this meet. Francesnfriends is making her first start off the claim for the Williams barn and could improve with the equipment change.
Betting Strategy
The speed bias suggests Hittin My Stride could wire this field at a price. Consider exactas with Sister Saint over Jessica Blah Blah and Hittin My Stride. Trifecta players should include Foxy Zorra underneath despite the likely short price.
Selections
Win: Hittin My Stride
Place: Sister Saint
Show: Jessica Blah Blah
Race 3 – Maiden Claiming
Post Time
1:45PM CST
Pace Analysis
This maiden turf route over seven and one-half furlongs typically favors off-the-pace runners. Perfect Union and Sky Low Low have shown early speed in workouts and may contest the lead, but the distance and surface favor closers. The rail at 7 feet gives outside runners more room to maneuver in the stretch. Expect a moderate pace with the winner making a late run.
Key Contenders
Sunday Slipper gets a top rider in Curtis Ben for the Walsh barn, which wins at 23% with turf maidens. This filly has been working steadily and gets the ideal turf post. Perfect Union has the breeding to handle turf and gets Graham James for Desormeaux, a potent turf combination. Twopepperedpennies has good recent works for Giangrosso and gets Albert Treylon S., who has been riding well.
Secondary Choices
Keen Gal ships in from Hawthorne off a troubled trip and gets Lopez Paco, who excels on turf. The Rodriguez barn has been live with shippers. Sky Low Low has early speed for Loveberry and DeVaux, which could be dangerous if allowed to control the pace. Expect a Guitar has upside for the Magnon team.
Longshots
McKinzie River drops in class for West and gets Mitchell Murrill, who has been riding at a 14% win rate at the meet. Get Frosty has been working steadily for Jeansonne and gets Rea Hunter, who excels on turf closers. Zettie is the only five-year-old mare in the field and has tactical speed.
Betting Strategy
The turf route bias points to Sunday Slipper as the logical choice. Consider exacta boxes with Sunday Slipper over Perfect Union and Twopepperedpennies. Trifecta players should include Keen Gal and McKinzie River for value.
Selections
Win: Sunday Slipper
Place: Perfect Union
Show: Twopepperedpennies
Race 4 – Allowance
Post Time
2:15PM CST
Pace Analysis
This Louisiana-bred allowance sprint features several confirmed speed horses. Delightful Halo, Factor of Time, and Synthetic will all be forwardly placed. The six-furlong distance and inside post bias should help the early leaders. Expect a fast pace with stalkers having the advantage as the speed horses tire late.
Key Contenders
Cool Lucky Lady makes her second start for the Calhoun barn and gets a four-pound weight allowance as a three-year-old. The Calhoun-Concepcion combo wins at 20% with Louisiana-bred maidens. Canal Street is the stablemate and also gets weight relief with Hernandez Colby J. riding. From Scratch has been working sharply for Forster and gets Loveberry Jareth, who excels on speed types.
Secondary Choices
Delightful Halo has tactical speed from the rail for Duke and Vives Sofia. The Duke barn wins at 18% with sprint types. Factor of Time drops in class for Castille and Murrill Mitchell, a dangerous combination. About to Set Sail has back class for David Jr. and Pedroza Jr.
Longshots
Synthetic has been competitive in allowance company and gets Nieves Emanuel for Felks. The Felks barn has been quiet but can pop at a price.
Betting Strategy
The Calhoun entry appears strongest with the weight allowances. Box Cool Lucky Lady and Canal Street in exactas with Factor of Time. Trifecta players should include From Scratch on the bottom.
Selections
Win: Cool Lucky Lady
Place: Canal Street
Show: From Scratch
Race 5 – Claiming
Post Time
2:45PM CST
Pace Analysis
This Louisiana-bred claiming sprint features abundant early speed. Sir Mack, Nova’s Return, Tsuperman, and Half Way There all want the lead. The contested pace will likely compromise the front-runners, setting up perfectly for a closer or stalker from the middle of the pack. The inside post bias is less meaningful with this much speed.
Key Contenders
Patek drops in class after showing ability at higher levels and gets Chavez Oriel for Ladner Jr. The class drop is significant and the price should be attractive. Name the Time makes his first start for Ellis and gets Albert Treylon S., who has been riding well for new connections. Razz has tactical speed for Zenon and Ledet Theodrick, a combination that has been profitable at this level.
Secondary Choices
Half Way There drops for Foster and gets Murrill Mitchell, the meet’s leading rider. The class drop is significant but the pace scenario may compromise his chances. Beaudean has back class for Granger and Hernandez Colby J. Tap the Tequila gets a weight allowance as a three-year-old and has been working steadily for Gelner.
Longshots
Sir Mack makes his first start for Schmidt and gets Murray Erica M. The Schmidt barn has been cold but can improve with new stock. Nova’s Return ships in from Louisiana Downs with consistent form for Schwandt. Torpedo Charlie has early speed for Thomas Lee and McMahon C.J.
Betting Strategy
The likely fast pace sets up for Patek to come from off the pace. Consider exacta boxes with Patek over Name the Time and Razz. Trifecta players should include Half Way There and Beaudean underneath.
Selections
Win: Patek
Place: Name the Time
Show: Razz
Race 6 – Maiden Special Weight
Post Time
3:15PM CST
Pace Analysis
This juvenile turf mile features a large field of sixteen with several showing early speed in workouts. Musical Delight, Don’s Joy, and Strada Del Sogno have all shown turf affinity in morning drills. The mile distance on firm turf favors stalkers and closers, particularly with the rail at 7 feet. Expect a solid pace with the winner coming from mid-pack.
Key Contenders
Ontology has been working sharply for Walsh and gets Cannon Declan, who excels on turf. The Walsh barn wins at 23% with juvenile turf maidens. Musical Delight gets Loveberry for Block, a potent turf combination. Her Majesty has been tabbed by Atras and gets Murrill Mitchell, the meet’s leading rider.
Secondary Choices
Grazie Prego is the stablemate to Musical Delight and gets McMahon C.J. The Block barn has been dominant with two-year-olds. Don’s Joy ships in from Indiana with Sharp Joe and Curtis Ben, a dangerous shippers combo. Strada Del Sogno has European breeding for Londono and Graham James.
Longshots
Angelic Katie gets Castillo Isaac for Gelner Jayde J. and has shown turf works. Pretty Ribbon ships in from Ireland for DeVaux and Pedroza Jr. Rainy Road is another DeVaux runner with Hernandez Colby J. Click gets McMahon C.J. for Calhoun and has been working steadily.
Betting Strategy
The large field suggests spreading in multi-race wagers. Ontology and Musical Delight appear strongest. Consider exacta boxes with Ontology over Musical Delight and Her Majesty. Trifecta players should include Grazie Prego and Don’s Joy for value.
Selections
Win: Ontology
Place: Musical Delight
Show: Her Majesty
Race 7 – Claiming
Post Time
3:45PM CST
Pace Analysis
This route over one and one-sixteenth miles features several horses with tactical speed. I’m Your Man, Cobblestone Bridge, and Glen Airy will all be positioned forwardly. The route distance on dirt favors stalkers, and the inside post bias is significant. Expect a moderate pace with the winner making a move on the far turn.
Key Contenders
Glen Airy drops in class for Rodriguez and gets Murrill Mitchell, a dangerous combination. The class drop is significant and the price should be attractive. Interlock Empire ran a competitive race against similar company last out for Tracy and gets McMahon C.J. The Tracy-McMahon combo wins at 18% with routers.
Secondary Choices
I’m Your Man is the class of the field on paper but may be overbet. The Ducoing-Lopez combo is solid but the price will be short. Critical Threat drops in class for Tracy and gets Loveberry Jareth, who excels on routers. The class drop is meaningful.
Longshots
Cobblestone Bridge makes his first start for Stidham and gets Lopez Paco. The Stidham barn excels with layoff runners and shippers. Golden Glider won impressively last out for Cano and gets Pedroza Jr. The price will be attractive.
Betting Strategy
The class drops of Glen Airy and Critical Threat are significant. Consider exacta boxes with Glen Airy over Interlock Empire and I’m Your Man. Trifecta players should include Critical Threat and Golden Glider underneath.
Selections
Win: Glen Airy
Place: Interlock Empire
Show: I’m Your Man
Race 8 – Pan Zareta Stakes
Post Time
4:15PM CST
Pace Analysis
This featured turf sprint over five and one-half furlongs typically favors tactical speed. Gavea, Cart Girl Sam, and Brunch Punch have all shown turf speed. The firm turf and short distance mean the winner must be close to the pace early. Inside posts have historically won the fewest turf sprints, so middle draws have an advantage.
Key Contenders
Accomplished Girl is the class of the field and gets Lopez Paco for Asmussen. The Asmussen barn wins at 24% in stakes races and Lopez excels on turf. Cupids Crush has been competitive in graded stakes and gets Murrill Mitchell, the meet’s leading rider. The Robertson barn wins at 22% in turf stakes.
Secondary Choices
Serving Time ships in from Great Britain for DeVaux and Loveberry Jareth, a potent turf combination. The filly has been working steadily and gets Lasix for the first time. Peak Earnings is another British shipper for Diodoro and Nieves Emanuel, dangerous at a price.
Longshots
Swoonatra has been competitive in stakes company for Pomier and Graham James. The six-year-old mare knows how to win at this level. Aztec Empress gets Vives Sofia for Duke and has been working sharply. Tryinmyheartout ships in from Texas for Wilson and Castillo Isaac.
Betting Strategy
The Asmussen entry appears strongest but the price will be short. Consider exacta boxes with Accomplished Girl over Cupids Crush and Serving Time. Trifecta players should include Peak Earnings and Swoonatra for value.
Selections
Win: Accomplished Girl
Place: Cupids Crush
Show: Serving Time
Race 9 – Maiden Claiming
Post Time
4:45PM CST
Pace Analysis
This Louisiana-bred maiden sprint features several first-time starters and horses with limited experience. The early pace should be moderate with several horses showing workout speed. Platinum Midnight, Global Value, and Francesnfriends have all shown early foot in drills. The six-furlong distance favors speed, and the inside post bias is significant.
Key Contenders
Platinum Midnight has been working sharply for the Magnon team and gets Magnon Devin H. The filly has shown speed in drills and the barn wins at 18% with first-time starters. Global Value ships in from Evangeline for Zeringue and gets Albert Treylon S., a dangerous shippers combo. Moneyforwednesday has been working steadily for Williams and Nieves Emanuel.
Secondary Choices
Francesnfriends drops in class for Williams and gets McMahon C.J. The class drop is significant. Wosiemaks makes her first start for David Jr. and Pedroza Jr., a potent first-time starter combination. El Tintineos ships in from Louisiana Downs for Schmidt and Riquelme Jose.
Longshots
Platinum Midnight has the best works on paper and should be forwardly placed. Global Value ships in with competitive works. Moneyforwednesday has been working steadily and gets a good post.
Betting Strategy
First-time starters dominate this race. Consider exacta boxes with Platinum Midnight over Global Value and Francesnfriends. Trifecta players should include Moneyforwednesday and Wosiemaks for value.
Selections
Win: Platinum Midnight
Place: Global Value
Show: Francesnfriends
Jockey Notes and Insights
Mitchell Murrill leads the meet with 101 wins from 723 starts in 2025, hitting at a 14% win rate. Murrill excels on speed types and has been particularly effective on turf, winning at 18% on grass. His agents have done excellent work getting live mounts, particularly for leading trainers like West, Desormeaux, and Rodriguez.
Lopez Paco has been the go-to rider for speed horses, winning at 16% on dirt sprints. His ability to save ground from inside posts makes him dangerous on any horse with early foot. Lopez excels for trainers like Bourgeois, Ducoing, and Ramirez.
Colby J. Hernandez has been effective in routes, winning at 13% over one mile. His patience suits the Fair Grounds surface, particularly on closers. Hernandez has strong relationships with trainers Calhoun, Granger, and DeVaux.
Jareth Loveberry has been dominant on turf, winning at 19% on grass. His timing on the far turn is exceptional, and he excels for trainers Walsh, DeVaux, and Forster. Loveberry’s ability to judge pace makes him dangerous on any turf horse.
Trainer Notes and Insights
W. Bret Calhoun wins at 20% with Louisiana-bred maidens and 48% in-the-money percentage. His juvenile fillies are particularly dangerous, and his barn shows strength in allowances and state-bred stakes. Calhoun’s relationship with jockey Colby J. Hernandez has been profitable.
Steven M. Asmussen wins at 24% in stakes races and 22% overall at the meet. His turf horses are always live, and his two-year-olds have been particularly sharp. Asmussen’s relationship with Lopez Paco has produced numerous stakes winners.
Brendan P. Walsh wins at 23% with turf maidens and shows strong percentages with shippers. His barn has been particularly effective with European imports and turf routers. Walsh’s relationship with Cannon Declan and Curtis Ben has been profitable.
Cherie DeVaux wins at 22% with turf horses and 19% with shippers. Her barn has been particularly effective with layoff runners and horses getting Lasix for the first time. DeVaux’s turf sprinters are always dangerous.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The card presents several opportunities for value. In Race 1, Totally Addicted offers excellent value at likely double-digit odds dropping to the lowest level of his career. The pace setup favors his closing style, and the Rea-Hunter combination has been profitable.
Race 5 presents a prime betting opportunity with Patek dropping significantly in class. The likely fast pace will compromise the front-runners, setting up perfectly for his closing kick. The exacta with Name the Time underneath offers excellent value.
The Pan Zareta Stakes appears to be a two-horse race between Accomplished Girl and Cupids Crush, but the exacta with Serving Time underneath could provide value if the British shipper handles the firm turf.
Multi-race wagers should focus on spreading in the large maiden fields while singling in the more predictable races. The all-stakes Pick 4 could be constructed by singling Accomplished Girl and using three to four horses in the other legs.
The late double pairing Race 8 and Race 9 offers an opportunity to single Accomplished Girl and spread in the maiden claiming finale, where first-time starters dominate and chaos is likely. The early Pick 5 should include the Calhoun entry in Race 4 as a key single.
