Get more in-depth analysis for all races and enjoy many other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!
Don’t forget Pick Pony’s Expert Picks, AI Picks, and Past Performance Sheets/Racing Forms!
The Pick Pony Handicapper’s Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts and are generally more accurate.
The Stars of Tomorrow II card at Churchill Downs presents one of the most exciting juvenile showcases of the season, featuring 12 races exclusively for two-year-olds. The card is highlighted by the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and Grade 2 Golden Rod Stakes, both offering valuable Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks qualifying points on a 10-5-3-2-1 scale. The $225,000 Ed Brown Stakes and $225,000 Fern Creek Stakes add additional stakes quality to this exceptional program.
The racing program begins at 1:00 PM ET with first post, and the featured Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes is scheduled for 5:25 PM ET. This penultimate day of the Fall Meet has drawn significant attention from connections eyeing the Triple Crown trail next spring.
Weather and Track Conditions
Weather forecasts for Louisville on Saturday, November 29, call for mostly cloudy skies with temperatures in the low 40s to low 50s Fahrenheit. Some forecasts suggest the possibility of snow showers later in the day, though the morning and early afternoon should remain dry. The current track conditions are listed as Fast for the dirt and Firm for the turf, ideal for racing.
The relatively cool temperatures and dry morning conditions should provide a fair racing surface throughout the day. However, horseplayers should monitor conditions closely as the day progresses, particularly for the later stakes races, as any precipitation could affect the track bias and running styles that succeed.
Track Bias and Post Position Notes
Churchill Downs during the Fall Meet has shown some notable tendencies. Through the first three weeks of the meet, early speed has been favored in sprint races on dirt, with approximately 31-35% of winners coming wire-to-wire at six furlongs. Middle posts, particularly posts 4 and 5, have produced strong win percentages across all distances, with post 5 accounting for 22% of sprint winners on the dirt.
In route races at 1 1/16 miles on dirt, the inside paths have been more productive, with roughly 15% of winners emerging from the inside stalls. Closers have found it more difficult to win at the route distances, making pace and trip projections critical for the two-turn maiden races and stakes events on today’s card.
The turf course has played fairly, with firm conditions allowing multiple running styles to succeed. Inside posts tend to save ground on the tight turns, giving those horses a slight tactical advantage.
Race 1: Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/16 Miles Dirt, $120,000
Post Time: 1:00 PM ET
This opening contest for two-year-old fillies features a deep field of 12 with several first-time starters and lightly raced runners stretching out to two turns.
Pace Analysis
The pace scenario looks moderate with no overwhelming front-runner in the field. Several horses have shown tactical versatility in their prior starts, suggesting a reasonable pace that should favor horses with position and turn of foot rather than extreme closers.
Key Contenders
Sticker Shock (8) represents the formidable Brad Cox-Irad Ortiz Jr. combination that has dominated the Fall Meet. Cox leads all trainers with 14 wins during the meet, and Ortiz leads all jockeys with 38 victories through 21 days of racing. This filly is bred to improve stretching out, and the connections have patiently waited for this two-turn debut. The 4-1 morning line reflects legitimate win potential.
Search Party (11) races for Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse with Jose Ortiz in the irons. The Ortiz brothers have combined for 70 wins at the meet, and Jose Ortiz has been particularly effective with the Casse stable. The outside post is less concerning in a two-turn race, and this filly has the breeding and connections to factor prominently.
Secondary Choices
Glow of a Rose (1) breaks from the rail for Wesley Ward and Joel Rosario. Ward’s juveniles typically show sharp speed, and this filly may be the early pacesetter. The 3-1 morning line indicates strong play is expected.
All About You (5) gives Kenny McPeek and Brian Hernandez Jr. a live chance in this maiden. McPeek won both the Derby and Oaks last year and continues to develop promising juveniles. The 5-1 odds offer value if this filly can handle the two-turn distance.
Longshots
Bisclavret (7) represents the George Weaver barn with Tyler Gaffalione riding. Gaffalione has won 20 races during the meet and recently captured the Grade 2 Mrs. Revere Stakes. This longshot could outrun her 12-1 odds with a forward trip.
Selections
Win: Sticker Shock (8)
Place: Search Party (11)
Show: Glow of a Rose (1)
Race 2: Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile Turf, $120,000
Post Time: 1:28 PM ET
A large field of 16 juvenile males contests this one-mile turf maiden, with the race potentially moving to the main track if weather deteriorates.
Pace Analysis
The turf distance and field size suggest an honest pace with several horses likely to vie for early position. Mid-pack runners with tactical speed should benefit from any pace meltdown in the stretch.
Key Contenders
Happy Prince (1) for Mark Casse draws the rail and gets Irad Ortiz Jr., the meet’s leading rider. First-time starters from this barn require respect, and the rail draw saves ground on the tight turns.
Untethered (11) ships from Cherie DeVaux with Jose Ortiz riding. DeVaux has developed into one of the elite trainers of young horses, and this Irish-bred has the pedigree to handle the turf distance.
Empire West (15) represents Brad Cox and Irad Ortiz Jr. in their second pairing of the day. Cox’s juveniles have been well-prepared throughout the meet, though the outside post presents tactical challenges.
Secondary Choices
Flaming Rainbow (3) gives Kenny McPeek and Brian Hernandez Jr. a strong chance. This combination has been effective at the meet, and the McPeek-Hernandez partnership produces at a high rate.
Gairloch (4) debuts for Brendan Walsh, whose juveniles have been impressive recently. Walsh’s first-time starters merit serious consideration given the barn’s current form.
Longshots
Light Cav (9) represents up-and-coming trainer Whit Beckman with regular rider Jose Ramos. Beckman has emerged as a formidable conditioner and could produce an upset at 10-1 odds.
Selections
Win: Untethered (11)
Place: Happy Prince (1)
Show: Flaming Rainbow (3)
Race 3: Maiden Special Weight, 7 Furlongs Dirt, $120,000
Post Time: 1:56 PM ET
Sixteen two-year-old fillies compete in this seven-furlong dirt sprint, featuring several well-bred first-time starters and second-timers with upside.
Pace Analysis
Several fillies have shown early speed in previous starts, suggesting a contested pace that could set up for horses with tactical position just off the lead. The seven-furlong distance rewards horses that can rate early and sustain a rally through the lane.
Key Contenders
Presumptuous (12) draws attention as a Godolphin homebred for Brendan Walsh. This filly adds blinkers after a fifth-place debut at Keeneland and gets a significant rider upgrade to Tyler Gaffalione. Walsh’s barn is running well, and the equipment change suggests connections expect improvement.
Noble Glow (8) debuts as a Juddmonte homebred for Chad Brown with Flavien Prat riding. This Gun Runner filly is out of Argentinian Mare of the Year Summer of Love, giving her exceptional pedigree credentials. Brown rarely brings first-timers to Churchill without high expectations.
Powered by Family (5) represents Cherie DeVaux with Jose Ortiz. This Quality Road filly is out of Grade 1 Personal Ensign winner Icon Project, providing elite bloodlines. DeVaux’s first-time starters have been competitive throughout 2025.
Secondary Choices
Private Debbie (3) gives Steve Asmussen and Joel Rosario a live chance. Asmussen has entered 11 two-year-olds across Saturday’s program and has been particularly effective with this distance and surface.
Majestical (11) ships from California for Peter Eurton with Irad Ortiz Jr. riding. The meet’s leading jockey adds significant value to any contender, and California shippers to Churchill often perform well.
Longshots
White Smoke (10) represents DeVaux’s second entry with Luis Saez aboard. This Essential Quality filly comes from an accomplished family and could provide value at longer odds.
Selections
Win: Presumptuous (12)
Place: Noble Glow (8)
Show: Powered by Family (5)
Race 4: Ed Brown Stakes, 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt, $225,000
Post Time: 2:24 PM ET
The first stakes of the afternoon features a compact but talented field of six juvenile colts sprinting six and a half furlongs.
Pace Analysis
This small field lacks an overwhelming speed horse, though several runners have shown tactical quickness. The pace should be honest without being suicidal, giving the classiest horse every opportunity to demonstrate superiority.
Key Contenders
Boyd (6) headlines this field for Bob Baffert with Flavien Prat riding. This Violence colt won impressively at Del Mar in September and has been freshened for this engagement. Baffert shipped Boyd, Cherokee Nation, and Tour Player to Churchill earlier in the week, demonstrating confidence in their readiness. The 1-1 morning line reflects his dominance on paper, and his 106 Equibase Speed Figure is the best in this field.
Stradale (5) represents Steve Asmussen and Joel Rosario. This $1.3 million yearling purchase has hit the board in three of four career starts and has the breeding and connections to compete at the highest level. Asmussen has entered 11 juveniles across Saturday’s program, demonstrating the barn’s depth with young stock.
Secondary Choices
Gallivant (1) won the Bowman Mill Stakes impressively and brings tactical speed from the rail for trainer Ben Colebrook. The step up in class presents challenges, but this colt has shown steady improvement.
Big Dom (3) gives Tom Amoss and Jose Ortiz a contender, though this colt is cutting back after a disappointing effort in the Breeders’ Futurity. The distance reduction should help, and Amoss has been effective with his juvenile string.
Longshots
Bobrovsky (2) exits a graded stakes effort and brings experience that some rivals lack. At double-digit odds, this colt offers value for exotic wagers.
Selections
Win: Boyd (6)
Place: Stradale (5)
Show: Gallivant (1)
Race 5: Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 Mile Dirt, $127,000
Post Time: 2:55 PM ET
Nine two-year-old colts contest this one-mile allowance race, featuring several promising runners stretching out around two turns.
Pace Analysis
It’s Our Time and Valiant both possess tactical speed, suggesting an honest early pace. The one-mile distance rewards horses that can position themselves within striking distance while conserving energy for the stretch run.
Key Contenders
Valiant (1) draws the rail for Brad Cox and Irad Ortiz Jr. This colt has won two of four starts and shows versatility in running style. The Cox-Ortiz combination leads all trainer-jockey tandems at the meet, and Valiant’s class and recent form make him the logical favorite.
It’s Our Time (4) finished fourth in the Champlain Stakes for trainer Tom Amoss with Jose Ortiz riding. This colt brings stakes experience and should appreciate the cutback in class.
Misinformation (6) gives Mark Casse and Flavien Prat a live chance at 8-1 odds. Casse has developed numerous top juveniles, and Prat’s presence suggests the connections expect a strong effort.
Secondary Choices
Stop the Car (2) represents Brendan Walsh and Tyler Gaffalione. Walsh’s juveniles have been competitive throughout the meet, and this first-time route runner could improve significantly stretching out.
Time for Music (3) gives Asmussen and Rosario another chance after an encouraging debut. The barn’s juveniles continue to develop through the fall.
Longshots
Bust Out (9) ships from Michael McCarthy with Luis Saez riding. McCarthy has shown an ability to develop young horses, and this colt could provide value at longer odds.
Selections
Win: Valiant (1)
Place: It’s Our Time (4)
Show: Misinformation (6)
Race 6: Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/16 Miles Turf, $120,000
Post Time: 3:25 PM ET
Sixteen two-year-old fillies compete in this 1 1/16-mile turf maiden, with the race subject to being moved to the main track if conditions warrant.
Pace Analysis
The large field and route distance suggest multiple horses will attempt to establish position early, though no overwhelming speed horse emerges from the entries. Mid-pack runners with strong finishes should benefit from a pace that figures to be contested.
Key Contenders
Kentucky Belle (4) represents Brad Cox and Irad Ortiz Jr. This filly draws a favorable inside post and benefits from the meet’s leading connections. The 5-2 morning line indicates strong support.
Core Memories (5) gives Cherie DeVaux another chance with Jose Ortiz riding. DeVaux has excelled with young fillies, and this maiden stretching out to two turns could show significant improvement.
Secondary Choices
Alone Time (12) represents DeVaux’s second entry with Flavien Prat. The trainer’s patience with young horses often produces results when they finally surface in stakes-quality maiden races.
Market Chill (16) debuts for Chad Brown with Flavien Prat. Brown’s turf maidens at this level typically require respect, though the outside post presents challenges.
Longshots
Karma Cat (2) offers exceptional value at 20-1 for trainer Whit Beckman. This barn has emerged as a force during the Fall Meet, and any first-timer from this operation merits consideration.
Selections
Win: Kentucky Belle (4)
Place: Core Memories (5)
Show: Karma Cat (2)
Race 7: Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/16 Miles Dirt, $120,000
Post Time: 3:55 PM ET
Sixteen juvenile colts and geldings contest this two-turn dirt maiden, featuring several well-bred runners and promising second-timers.
Pace Analysis
Maximum Effort and several other runners have shown early speed, suggesting an honest pace that should set up for horses with tactical position and finishing ability. The two-turn distance rewards those that can handle the configuration while maintaining stamina.
Key Contenders
Maximum Effort (6) represents Steve Asmussen and Jose Ortiz after a narrow second-place finish at Keeneland in his debut. This Maxfield colt showed professionalism beyond his experience and should improve with that race under his belt.
Swift Blade (12) debuts for Brad Cox from the outside post. This Quality Road colt is a Juddmonte homebred whose second dam is champion mare Close Hatches, the dam of Tacitus and multiple stakes winners. Cox has patiently developed this colt for his debut.
Secondary Choices
Stirring Words (3) returns for Cherie DeVaux after a troubled debut at Churchill in September. This $975,000 Fasig-Tipton August purchase encountered traffic issues and should improve significantly with a cleaner trip.
Liberty National (2) gives Kenny McPeek and Brian Hernandez Jr. a live chance. McPeek has entered multiple juveniles across the day’s stakes races, demonstrating his depth with this crop.
Longshots
Tiernanogue (7) represents Brendan Walsh and Tyler Gaffalione. Walsh’s juveniles have been competitive throughout the meet, and this colt offers value at 8-1 odds.
Selections
Win: Maximum Effort (6)
Place: Swift Blade (12)
Show: Stirring Words (3)
Race 8: Fern Creek Stakes, 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt, $225,000
Post Time: 4:25 PM ET
Ten two-year-old fillies sprint six and a half furlongs in this stakes event, featuring the top three finishers from the Myrtlewood Stakes at Keeneland.
Pace Analysis
Several fillies possess early speed, including Solemn Vow and On Time Girl. The pace should be honest, potentially setting up for the proven closer A Fine Chardonnay to employ her late-running style.
Key Contenders
A Fine Chardonnay (6) won impressively at Keeneland in her stakes debut and returns with Tyler Gaffalione for trainer Ian Wilkes. This filly has demonstrated the ability to close into a pace and should benefit from the speed expected in this field. Handicappers note that Wilkes typically does not push his young horses, making this filly’s early success even more impressive.
On Time Girl (7) represents Brad Cox and Irad Ortiz Jr., bringing the meet’s most successful combination to the stakes arena. This filly finished third in the Myrtlewood and figures to improve with added seasoning.
Secondary Choices
Solemn Vow (1) draws the rail for trainer Al Stall Jr., who is one win away from 300 Churchill Downs victories. Brian Hernandez Jr. picks up the mount, and this filly’s tactical speed could carry her a long way from the inside.
Paige Turner (2) gives Cherie DeVaux and Jose Ortiz a chance. DeVaux has been excellent with juvenile fillies, and this runner brings competitive form.
Longshots
Go to Girl (8) represents Kenny McPeek with Flavien Prat riding. McPeek’s stakes horses often outperform their odds, and this filly could factor at double-digit prices.
Selections
Win: A Fine Chardonnay (6)
Place: On Time Girl (7)
Show: Solemn Vow (1)
Race 9: Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile Turf, $120,000
Post Time: 4:55 PM ET
Sixteen juvenile colts and geldings contest this one-mile turf maiden, setting up the feature stakes races that follow.
Pace Analysis
The large field and one-mile distance suggest multiple runners will compete for early position. Horses that can secure a ground-saving trip while maintaining tactical flexibility should have the best chance.
Key Contenders
Kilo Tango (9) represents Brad Cox and Irad Ortiz Jr., continuing the day’s most successful combination. This colt benefits from the meet-leading jockey and trainer pairing.
Supercharger (11) gives Cherie DeVaux and Jose Ortiz another opportunity. DeVaux has been particularly effective with turf maidens, and this colt draws attention at 10-1 odds.
Gotcha (2) represents Brendan Walsh and Tyler Gaffalione. Walsh’s juveniles have been competitive throughout the meet, and this colt shows the breeding for the turf distance.
Secondary Choices
Race Ready (12) gives Norm Casse and Junior Alvarado a contender at 12-1 odds. This colt brings experience that some rivals lack and could outperform his odds.
No Joke Joe (3) returns for Joe Sharp with Luis Saez riding. This colt has shown improvement in recent works and could factor with a forward trip.
Longshots
High Honors (15) offers value at 8-1 for trainer Anna Meah with Luis Saez. Meah recently won at the meet, demonstrating her ability to develop young horses.
Selections
Win: Kilo Tango (9)
Place: Supercharger (11)
Show: Gotcha (2)
Race 10: Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2), 1 1/16 Miles Dirt, $400,000
Post Time: 5:25 PM ET
Seven juvenile colts compete for Kentucky Derby qualifying points (10-5-3-2-1) in this Grade 2 stakes, the highlight of the Stars of Tomorrow II card.
Pace Analysis
The pace scenario presents intriguing possibilities. Dr. Kapur has flashed speed in both starts sprinting, Soldier N Diplomat set the pace in the Grade 1 Hopeful, and Cherokee Nation was recently run down after leading through six furlongs. This contested pace could favor Further Ado, who displayed a devastating turn of foot when stretching out in his maiden victory.
Key Contenders
Further Ado (6) enters as the dominant favorite after his sensational 20-length maiden victory at Keeneland, where he earned a 114 Equibase Speed Figure (98 Beyer) that ranks among the best juvenile figures of 2025. The Gun Runner colt disappointed in his first two sprint starts but exploded when stretching out to two turns. Trainer Brad Cox has kept him sharp with impressive morning workouts at Churchill, and Irad Ortiz Jr. retains the mount.
Cox noted that Further Ado will need to break well and establish position to be successful, acknowledging that the pace could be livelier than what he faced in his maiden. Despite the short 7-5 odds, this colt has the talent to dominate if he reproduces his maiden effort.
Cherokee Nation (2) ships from Southern California for Bob Baffert with Flavien Prat riding. This colt lost by only a nose to Mr. A.P., who went on to finish second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. The 106 Equibase Speed Figure from that effort makes Cherokee Nation competitive on figures, and Baffert’s ability to point horses for big days cannot be discounted.
Universe (7) represents Kenny McPeek with Brian Hernandez Jr. riding. This colt has hit the board in all three starts, including a third in the Grade 1 Champagne and a second in the Grade 3 Street Sense. McPeek won both the Derby and Oaks last year, and Universe offers the best value among the top contenders at 9-2 odds.
Secondary Choices
Soldier N Diplomat (4) gives Steve Asmussen a strong chance with Tyler Gaffalione riding. This colt won his allowance start by nine lengths last month and has shown improvement throughout his campaign. The step up to two turns presents a question, but Asmussen has been excellent with his juvenile string.
Dr. Kapur (3) makes his route debut for Saffie Joseph Jr. with Jose Ortiz riding. This McKinzie colt has shown brilliant speed in both sprint starts, but the distance increase presents significant uncertainty. Joseph rarely ships a horse without confidence, making this colt worth including in exotics.
Longshots
Very Connected (5) offers value at 15-1 as Universe’s stablemate from the McPeek barn. This colt has gone the distance twice and closed well in the Street Sense despite traffic trouble. Emmanuel Esquivel rides.
Spice Runner (1) won the Grade 3 Iroquois at this track and distance, demonstrating he can handle the configuration. His recent workouts have been pedestrian, but proven class at the level makes him impossible to dismiss entirely.
Selections
Win: Further Ado (6)
Place: Universe (7)
Show: Cherokee Nation (2)
Race 11: Golden Rod Stakes (G2), 1 1/16 Miles Dirt, $400,000
Post Time: 5:54 PM ET
Thirteen two-year-old fillies compete for Kentucky Oaks qualifying points (10-5-3-2-1) in this Grade 2 stakes. The field lost expected favorite Explora when the Bob Baffert-trained filly did not make the flight from Southern California earlier in the week.
Pace Analysis
With Explora’s scratch, the race loses a significant speed presence. Life of Joy figures to track a moderate pace and employ her tactical speed, while Letmecounttheways and Atropa could close from off the pace. The tempo should be honest without being excessively fast.
Key Contenders
Life of Joy (6) seeks to give Brad Cox back-to-back Golden Rod victories after Good Cheer won the 2024 edition en route to the Kentucky Oaks. This filly is undefeated in two starts, including a 14 3/4-length maiden win at Horseshoe Indianapolis and a 2 1/4-length victory in the Rags to Riches Stakes at this track and distance. Irad Ortiz Jr. rides for Cox, who noted this is a deeper field than her previous competition.
Letmecounttheways (5) invades from New York for Mike Maker with Joel Rosario riding. This undefeated filly has won both starts by a combined margin of nearly 12 lengths, including the one-mile Maid of the Mist Stakes at Aqueduct. The step up in class presents a challenge, but her dominant performances suggest significant talent.
Atropa (9) gives Cherie DeVaux and Jose Ortiz a contender after her 10-length maiden victory at Keeneland. DeVaux has been exceptional with juvenile fillies, and this daughter of Quality Road has the pedigree to handle the distance increase.
Secondary Choices
Bella Ballerina (11) represents Brendan Walsh and Tyler Gaffalione after winning her maiden special weight at first asking. Walsh’s two-horse entry also includes Baracca (1), giving the barn multiple chances in this important stakes.
The Grumpy Rabbit (13) finished second to Life of Joy in the Rags to Riches and seeks to turn the tables. Kenny McPeek and Brian Hernandez Jr. team up on this filly, who showed improvement in her stakes debut.
Longshots
Baracca (1) offers value as the second Walsh entry with Axel Concepcion riding. This filly recently won an allowance race and could outperform her odds from the rail.
Essential Coffee (2) gives Steve Asmussen a chance at extended odds with Corey Lanerie riding.
Selections
Win: Life of Joy (6)
Place: Letmecounttheways (5)
Show: Atropa (9)
Race 12: Maiden Special Weight, 7 Furlongs Dirt, $120,000
Post Time: 6:26 PM ET
The card concludes with sixteen juvenile colts sprinting seven furlongs on the dirt, featuring two expensive second-timers and several promising debuts.
Pace Analysis
Several runners have shown early speed, suggesting an honest pace that should benefit horses with tactical position. The seven-furlong distance rewards those that can rate off the pace while maintaining energy for a sustained stretch run.
Key Contenders
Regeneration (5) debuts for Chad Brown with Flavien Prat riding. Brown’s first-time starters at this level typically require significant respect, and the jockey commitment suggests confidence from the connections.
Cannoneer (8) returns for Brad Cox with Irad Ortiz Jr. after finishing third in his debut at Churchill going five and a half furlongs. This $1.75 million Keeneland September purchase should improve stretching out, and the meet-leading connections add value.
Dragones (11) gives Steve Asmussen another chance with Tyler Gaffalione riding. This $1.7 million Fasig-Tipton August purchase finished second at Saratoga in his debut and should benefit from the experience.
Secondary Choices
Different Gravy (12) represents Eddie Kenneally with Luis Saez riding. Kenneally has been competitive with his juvenile string, and this colt offers value at 15-1 odds.
Stakeholder (3) gives Ian Wilkes a contender with Abel Cedillo riding. Wilkes has been patient with his young horses, and this debut runner merits attention.
Longshots
Fatguyinlittlecoat (14) offers value for Mike Maker with Flavien Prat. Maker’s juveniles often outperform their odds, and the jockey commitment suggests confidence.
Selections
Win: Cannoneer (8)
Place: Regeneration (5)
Show: Dragones (11)
Jockey Notes and Insights
Irad Ortiz Jr. dominates the Fall Meet jockey standings with 38 wins through 21 days of racing, maintaining a narrow lead over his brother Jose Ortiz (32 wins). Irad has been particularly effective with Brad Cox’s stable, and the combination has produced multiple stakes victories during the meet. His aggressive riding style suits Churchill’s configuration, and he has multiple opportunities on Saturday’s stakes-heavy card.
Jose Ortiz has been nearly as effective, winning 32 races and recently guiding Magnitude to victory in the Grade 2 Clark Stakes on Friday. His ability to rate horses and produce sustained rallies makes him especially dangerous in route races.
Tyler Gaffalione has accumulated 20 wins during the meet and captured two graded stakes within the final week, including the Mrs. Revere Stakes aboard Lush Lips for Brendan Walsh. His familiarity with the Walsh barn makes Gaffalione’s mounts from that operation particularly dangerous.
Brian Hernandez Jr. returns to prominence after recovering from injury and rides exclusively for Kenny McPeek in Saturday’s feature races. Hernandez piloted Thorpedo Anna and Mystic Dan to Derby and Oaks victories last year for McPeek, and the partnership remains formidable.
Flavien Prat has been selective with his mounts at Churchill but delivers when committed. His presence aboard Cherokee Nation in the Kentucky Jockey Club and multiple other stakes contenders reflects confidence from the connections.
Luis Saez ranks third in the jockey standings with 24 wins and has been effective across all surfaces and distances during the meet.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Brad Cox leads all trainers with 14 wins through 21 days of the Fall Meet, maintaining a four-win margin over Joe Sharp. Cox needs just six more victories to reach 500 career wins at Churchill Downs, and Saturday’s card provides multiple opportunities with Further Ado in the Kentucky Jockey Club, Life of Joy in the Golden Rod, and several other runners throughout the card. His juveniles have been particularly impressive this meet, and the barn’s patience with young horses continues to produce results.
Kenny McPeek enters the Kentucky Jockey Club and Golden Rod with multiple live contenders after winning both the Derby and Oaks in 2024. McPeek’s Universe offers the best value among Kentucky Jockey Club favorites, and The Grumpy Rabbit could improve in the Golden Rod. The McPeek-Hernandez partnership has been deadly in stakes races.
Steve Asmussen has entered 11 two-year-olds across Saturday’s program, demonstrating the barn’s depth with juveniles. His entries include Soldier N Diplomat and Spice Runner in the Kentucky Jockey Club, Maximum Effort in Race 7, and Stradale in the Ed Brown Stakes.
Brendan Walsh has emerged as a force during the Fall Meet with nine wins. His juveniles have been particularly competitive, and Walsh enters Bella Ballerina and Baracca in the Golden Rod while also sending out promising runners in maiden races throughout the card.
Bob Baffert shipped Boyd, Cherokee Nation, and Tour Player to Churchill earlier in the week, demonstrating confidence in his juvenile string. Boyd figures prominently in the Ed Brown Stakes, while Cherokee Nation presents the primary challenge to Further Ado in the Kentucky Jockey Club.
Cherie DeVaux has developed into one of the elite trainers of young horses, particularly fillies. Her entries throughout Saturday’s card merit serious consideration, and Atropa could upset in the Golden Rod.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The Stars of Tomorrow II card presents numerous wagering opportunities across stakes and maiden races. The concentrated juvenile talent creates volatility that savvy handicappers can exploit.
The most confident plays center on the Brad Cox-Irad Ortiz Jr. combination, which has dominated the meet. Valiant in Race 5 and Kentucky Belle in Race 6 represent relatively straightforward singles, while Further Ado in the Kentucky Jockey Club and Life of Joy in the Golden Rod are legitimate favorites despite their short prices.
The Ed Brown Stakes offers a potential single with Boyd at likely 1-1 odds, though spreading in exotics to include Stradale provides protection against an upset. An exacta box of Boyd with Stradale and Gallivant offers reasonable value while maintaining coverage.
The Kentucky Jockey Club provides the best value opportunity of the stakes races. While Further Ado deserves favoritism, Universe at 9-2 offers excellent win value given his consistent form in Grade 1 and Grade 3 company. Pairing Universe with Further Ado and Cherokee Nation in exacta boxes and trifectas provides coverage against a potential upset while maintaining reasonable cost.
The Golden Rod lost significant value when Explora scratched, making Life of Joy a clear-cut favorite. However, spreading to include Letmecounttheways and Atropa in exactas and trifectas offers protection against potential improvement from the closers.
For Pick 4 and Pick 5 sequences, the following structures offer strong coverage:
Late Pick 4 (Races 9-12): Single Kilo Tango in Race 9, use Further Ado and Universe in Race 10, spread Life of Joy, Letmecounttheways, and Atropa in Race 11, and spread Cannoneer, Regeneration, and Dragones in Race 12.
The maiden races throughout the card offer significant upset potential given the inexperience of the runners. First-time starters from the Cox, Walsh, DeVaux, and Brown barns merit automatic inclusion, while the McPeek-Hernandez combination in the juvenile stakes races provides consistent value.
Best Bet of the Day: Further Ado in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. Despite the short price, this colt’s 20-length maiden victory represents the most impressive juvenile performance of the season, and Brad Cox has kept him sharp through Churchill workouts.
Value Play of the Day: Universe at 9-2 in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. This McPeek-trained colt has hit the board in all three starts against top company and benefits from Brian Hernandez Jr.’s return. The price offers excellent value against a beatable favorite.
Upset Special: Karma Cat at 20-1 in Race 6. Whit Beckman has emerged as a force during the Fall Meet, and any first-timer from this barn offers legitimate upset potential at boxcar odds.
