Laurel Park – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News, Analysis, Expert Picks, and AI Predictions for December 5, 2025

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The Pick Pony Handicapper's Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

Laurel Park presents an eight-race card today with first post time at 12:00 PM ET. The card features a mix of claiming, maiden special weight, starter optional claiming, and allowance races on the main dirt track. With the turf season having concluded on Thanksgiving Day, all races today will be contested over the main dirt surface.​

Notable carryovers include a Chesapeake Jackpot Pick 6 carryover of $1,812 covering races 3-8 and a Jackpot Super High 5 carryover of $1,895 in race 6. The early and late Pick 5 wagers feature the popular 12% takeout rate.​

The scratch watch shows several recent scratches to monitor, including Mose Smokin and My Boy Bud in Race 1 (both private vet-illness), Cross of Valor in Race 2 (main-track-only), and potential scratches in later races due to vet issues and main-track-only preferences.

Weather and Track Conditions

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the Laurel, Maryland area from 4:00 AM to 4:00 PM today. Forecasts call for snow before 11:00 AM, transitioning to a chance of snow and freezing rain, with temperatures reaching only 31-33°F. Morning precipitation is expected with an 80% chance, though accumulations should be minimal with less than half an inch of new snow possible.​

The dirt track is currently listed as Good due to the wintry conditions. Given the precipitation forecast, the track may play differently than a typical fast surface. Horses with experience on off-tracks and those with tactical speed that can avoid trouble may have an advantage. The cold temperatures and potentially wet surface could favor runners that handle give in the ground.​

Track maintenance crews at Laurel have been diligent in maintaining surface quality throughout the fall meet, and adjustments will be made as weather conditions evolve throughout the card.​

Track Bias and Post Position Tendencies

Based on meet-to-date statistics from September 5 through November 30, 2025, the following biases have been observed at Laurel Park.​

At 6 furlongs on dirt, 28% of races have been won wire-to-wire, with early and pace-pressing running styles (E/P) performing best. Middle to outside posts have shown a slight advantage.​

At 7 furlongs on dirt, the wire-to-wire percentage increases to 32%, again favoring E/P running styles. The wider configuration of Laurel's one-mile oval generally allows for fair racing where closers can make up ground, though tactical speed from middle posts has performed well.​

In route races, outside posts (7 and 8) have demonstrated a clear advantage, with only 18% of winners coming from the two inside posts. The long stretch at Laurel gives closers opportunities to make moves, but mid-pack stalkers who can secure position have shown the best results.​

For today's conditions with potential precipitation, expect the track to play more kindly to speed than a typical fast surface, as off-tracks often carry more kickback that hinders closers.


Race 1: Claiming $16,000 for 2-Year-Olds at 7 Furlongs

Post Time: 12:00 PM ET

Eight two-year-olds contest this claiming sprint that serves as a solid opener for the card.

Pace Analysis

The pace scenario presents some intrigue. Boss Mode (PP1) and Sticktothesystem (PP8) both have shown gate speed in their previous starts. My Boy Bud (PP6) has also displayed early foot. Expect an honest pace with multiple horses vying for the lead through the opening quarter, which could set up for closers if the fractions become too quick. The 7-furlong distance around two turns may favor horses with tactical positioning rather than pure front-running speed.​

Key Contenders

Sticktothesystem drew the rail in this spot and comes off a maiden victory in similar fashion going 1 1/16 miles in his most recent outing. The Brittany Russell trainee earned a 73 Brisnet figure that day while showing the ability to rate kindly. From the outside post 8, he should have every opportunity to clear and get his preferred trip on the lead. The Russell barn has been dominant at the meet with a 33% win rate and over $1.3 million in purses.​

Boss Mode breaks from the inside post 1 for trainer Brittany Russell, giving the barn a potent one-two punch in this race. He was an impressive maiden winner last out, breaking on top and holding on to win with a career-best Brisnet mark of 82. That figure is the best last-out number in the race by nine points and far and away the highest figure earned by anyone in this field. While he may face more pressure today, his high ceiling makes him dangerous.​

Tucker Tiki has shown steadily improving form, including a maiden-breaking effort in his last start on September 12. He is coming off the longest layoff in the field but has worked very well recently at Charles Town. At 8-1 morning line odds, he offers value if he can handle the class rise.​

Secondary Choices

Mose Smokin is listed on the scratch watch but if he runs, the Jose Corrales trainee showed promise in his previous outings. In Honor of Jeff gets a jockey switch and has shown some late interest in his races. Red Spitfire has posted some competitive speed figures and should not be overlooked at a price.

Longshots

My Boy Bud has been on the scratch watch with illness issues but if healthy, represents the Corrales barn that has been effective with juveniles. At 20-1 morning line, he would be a value play if scratches reduce the field.​

Selections

Win: Sticktothesystem (8)
Place: Boss Mode (1)
Show: Tucker Tiki (5)


Race 2: Maiden Special Weight for Fillies and Mares 3-6-Year-Olds at 1 Mile

Post Time: 12:30 PM ET

A small but competitive field of six maiden fillies and mares contest this one-mile route.

Pace Analysis

Handsintheair projects as the likely speed with her early foot shown at Woodbine. Chilly Girl has displayed some tactical presence and could press. The pace scenario appears moderate with Handsintheair likely controlling things early, setting up a chase style for the rest of the field. The one-turn mile configuration should favor the horse closest to the pace with the best kick.​

Key Contenders

Handsintheair is the heavy 1-1 morning line favorite for the Russell barn and Sheldon Russell combination. She chased the pace and faded in her last few starts against better maidens at Woodbine, but those races were against stiffer competition than what she faces here. This half-sister to multiple stakes winner Fulmineo makes her first start in her home state this afternoon. The Russell barn hits at 34% with first-time starters at one mile, making this one extremely dangerous.​

Chilly Girl returns at 3-1 after adding blinkers following a troubled trip last out. She veered in during the stretch in her previous start, resulting in disqualification from second to third. Jockey Yedsit Hazlewood picked off of her to ride victorious Rina is Fire that day, who subsequently finished second in a first-level sprint as the favorite. This time, Hazlewood stays aboard and gets the leading rider aboard. Hamilton Smith has his charge well-meant here.​

Secondary Choices

Always Authentic improved to a 74 second time out in late August. She struggled on grass last out but has had 2.5 months off since then and takes blinkers off in her first start for the Kelly Rubley barn. At 6-1, she is the value player in this field if the top two disappoint.​

Henry Gondorff is the other A. Ferris Allen III trainee in the field with hot pilot Martin Chuan aboard. Chuan has been riding at a 20% clip at the meet and has developed a rapport with several top barns.​

Longshots

Secret Journey is listed on the scratch watch but if she runs, comes in at 15-1 with some late speed shown in her recent outings at Penn National. Cross of Valor may scratch as a main-track-only entrant.

Selections

Win: Handsintheair (4)
Place: Chilly Girl (6)
Show: Always Authentic (5)


Race 3: Starter Optional Claiming $16,000 for 3-Year-Olds and Up at 7 Furlongs

Post Time: 1:00 PM ET

Eight horses contest this starter optional claiming race that kicks off the Pick 6 sequence.

Pace Analysis

Ecumenical projects as the main speed with his recent front-running win. Valleyshark showed a new dimension last out by showing speed. Blo By'em has some early foot as well. The pace could be contested between these three, potentially setting up for late runners like Brighty if the fractions get fast.​

Key Contenders

Valleyshark breaks from the rail at 6-1 for trainer Milan Milosevic. He broke his maiden on debut from off the pace in February 2024, then went to the sidelines for over a year and a half. He returned going long on grass last out and showed a new dimension by displaying speed and leading almost the whole way before flattening out in the last eighth. The switchback to dirt should help, and he should improve second off the layoff.​

Ecumenical is the 9-5 favorite after going off as the even-money choice against bottom-level maidens last out and living up to the hype to win with a career-best 88. Trainer Hugh McMahon has been effective at the meet, and if Valleyshark does not show speed today, this one will be in prime position to take them gate-to-wire.​

Brighty closed for third against a slightly better field last out and has by far the best average late pace figures in the race. The Milosevic trainee could rally if the speed duels up front.​

Secondary Choices

Roberts Moon comes in at 4-1 and has shown consistency in his recent starts for Jonathan Maldonado. Jevian Toledo picks up the mount and has been riding effectively. Minister could scratch as a main-track-only entrant but if he runs, represents the Anthony Pecoraro barn with Martin Chuan aboard.​

Longshots

Brindano at 15-1 has shown flashes and gets weight off with Pedro Pena claiming 5 pounds. Dats Tap has been inconsistent but posted a competitive effort two back.​

Selections

Win: Valleyshark (1)
Place: Ecumenical (2)
Show: Brighty (8)


Race 4: Claiming $40,000 for 2-Year-Old Fillies at 5 1/2 Furlongs

Post Time: 1:30 PM ET

Seven juvenile fillies contest this higher-level claimer that should see competitive wagering.

Pace Analysis

J Candy, Last Gift, and Fiesta La Luna all have shown early speed in their previous starts. The pace could be hotly contested through the opening quarter, which would favor closers like Knickoletta if the speed burns itself out. The 5.5-furlong sprint distance typically favors tactical speed horses that can settle behind a fast pace and kick on in the stretch.​

Key Contenders

Tipmanee is the 8-5 favorite coming off a non-threatening effort in the Smart Halo Stakes last out. She now drops back to a more realistic level and gets Yedsit Hazlewood, who rode her in her maiden win, back in the saddle. Hazlewood leads the jockey colony with a 23% win rate and over $1.8 million in purses. The Corrales trainee should appreciate the class relief.​

Knickoletta crushed the field first off the Jerry Robb claim last out, breaking her maiden in style with a career-best 76. Trainer John Robb has had a strong meet with his 2-year-olds, including victories in his last two starters in juvenile races for winners. Robb hits at 25-27% at the meet and has been particularly effective with claimed horses.​

Secondary Choices

Last Gift is the only one in the field who has defeated winners, having beaten $25,000 rivals two starts back. She is looking for a rebound after fading on the lead last out. At 10-1, she represents excellent value if she can regain her early-season form.​

J Candy shows good early speed figures and could be forwardly placed. The Ramirez trainee has tactical versatility that could prove useful in this spot.​

Longshots

Rerun Table and Pichu both appear on the scratch watch but if either runs, they would represent prices worth considering in exotics. Fiesta La Luna for Claudio Gonzalez has shown competitiveness and Angel Cruz gets the call.​

Selections

Win: Tipmanee (2)
Place: Knickoletta (4)
Show: Last Gift (3)


Race 5: Maiden Special Weight for 2-Year-Olds at 1 Mile

Post Time: 2:00 PM ET

Eight maiden juveniles contest this one-mile route that begins the late Pick 4 and Pick 5 sequences.

Pace Analysis

The pace figures to be moderate with Paintmymasterpeace showing the ability to be forwardly placed. Virginia Gentry and Twin Lakes have some early foot as well. This race sets up well for horses that can rate kindly behind a moderate pace and kick on in the stretch. The one-mile distance around one turn rewards tactical positioning.​

Key Contenders

Paintmymasterpeace is the 5-1 morning line choice after improving significantly to a 69 second time out, finishing a clear-cut second to the impressive, well-bet winner Lets Go Lando. His improvement coincided with a stretchout from 5.5 furlongs to 1 1/16 miles, and it stands to reason that he would like more distance. His dam, Artful Splatter, was a two-time stakes winner at a mile or longer. Despite having a troubled trip last time, he still ran a solid number.​

Dynacito is the 5-2 morning line favorite for Brittany Russell and consistently ran in the mid/upper-60s throughout the summer and fall, stalking the pace and holding on for a share each time. He is facing a fairly soft field in his dirt debut, and will be tough if he runs back to his usual race. Sheldon Russell gets aboard for the premier Russell barn.​

Hixon is a first-timer for the Russell barn. His workouts have not been spectacular, and his worktab is dangerously long. However, trainer Brittany Russell hits at a remarkable 12-for-39 with first-time starters at one mile, and any Russell firster is dangerous in these maiden events.​

Secondary Choices

Virginia Gentry for Michael Trombetta has shown steady improvement and could be dangerous off the pace. Future Blues shows some late foot in his races and gets weight off with Jose Vargas claiming 7 pounds. Twin Lakes could show some early speed for the Madison Meyers barn.​

Longshots

West Mountain at 30-1 is a massive price for the Caitlin Keil barn. Pendar blinks on at 20-1 and could show improvement if the headgear helps focus him.​

Selections

Win: Paintmymasterpeace (2)
Place: Dynacito (4)
Show: Hixon (3)


Race 6: Claiming $12,500 (Conditioned) for 3-Year-Olds and Up at 5 1/2 Furlongs

Post Time: 2:29 PM ET

A large field of 11 contests this claiming sprint that features the Jackpot Super High 5 carryover of $1,895.

Pace Analysis

This race features multiple speed types. Nola Boss, Kissling, and Docsgotallthecandy all have shown early foot. The presence of multiple pace factors should create honest fractions, potentially setting up for mid-pack stalkers and closers. The wide Laurel surface allows plenty of room to maneuver in the stretch, making late runners like Bright Charger and Candycrumbs interesting.​

Key Contenders

Bright Charger is the 9-2 morning line and looks like excellent value. At first glance, he appears up against it having lost his last two starts by 29 lengths each. However, his last race can be easily excused as his first race off a 6.5-month break where he stumbled very badly at the start. He ran no worse than a 79 in his first three starts of the year, and a return to that form wins this. He gets the hot pilot Yedsit Hazlewood for the Anthony Farrior barn.​

Nola Boss is the 2-1 favorite after battling on the lead last out and holding third while outfinishing his dueling partner by nine lengths. The Russell trainee has shown that he can run well from on or off the pace and brings class from his $40,000 maiden win. Sheldon Russell rides for his wife Brittany.​

Secondary Choices

Candycrumbs can launch a contending rally if his slow-starting habit does not resurface. The 6-1 shot has shown the ability to close effectively when he gets clear running. Kissling has speed and six wins as the lone 3-year-old facing all non-winners of 3 types at 10-1.​

Find Faith worked in 48 2/5 since an improved second start off a long layoff and could be rounding to a winning effort at his 8-1 price. City Panda rallied into a fast pace and won going away two back, now changing riders and getting in light-weighted at 8-1.​

Longshots

Imagine It All at 8-1 is 8/2-1-1 on the main track but has been entered in turf races the last three years. The switch back to dirt is interesting. Bigtonten at 15-1 finished second at this level two starts back, beating a few of today's rivals in the process.​

Selections

Win: Bright Charger (10)
Place: Nola Boss (1)
Show: Candycrumbs (8)


Race 7: Allowance (N/W1X) for Fillies and Mares 3-Years-Old and Up at 1 1/16 Miles

Post Time: 2:59 PM ET

Nine fillies and mares (with one coupled entry) contest this competitive two-turn allowance.

Pace Analysis

The pace could be contested with How Sweet She Is and Paradise Wins both showing early foot in their recent outings. If those two lock up in a speed duel, it could set up for closers like Isle Blue and Audibly. The 1 1/16-mile distance around two turns typically rewards tactical speed and horses that can rate behind a moderate pace.​

Key Contenders

Intrepid Mo is the 2-1 favorite and has run at least an 85 in each of her last three starts. That is faster than anyone else has run at any point within their last three dirt races. She was second to Hazlewood-ridden winner Atlantis Queen last out, and now gets Hazlewood back aboard. Gary Capuano has his charge well-prepared, and she gets in light-weighted at 117 pounds.​

How Sweet She Is is the preferred half of the Jamie Ness-trained coupled entry at 5-2. She ran in the upper-80s twice earlier this year but has declined in her last few starts after getting involved in early pace battles. Her late speed will be dangerous if she avoids another early duel. Martin Chuan gets the mount and is 5-for-10 on Ness runners since Thanksgiving.​

Isle Blue was an easy maiden winner at second asking at Finger Lakes last out. The Miguel Clement trainee angled to the inside on the final turn and drew away for that victory. She and How Sweet She Is are the only ones to win around two turns in the past six months. This one will take advantage of a potentially contested early pace at 6-1.​

Secondary Choices

The Ness entry also includes Dazzy, who has shown some form in her recent outings. Sharmin has won three in a row and brings good form into this spot at 3-1 but faces tougher here. Paradise Wins for Trombetta has shown some early foot and could be forwardly placed.​

Longshots

Audibly at 20-1 for Gina Perri and Sheldon Russell could rally if the pace collapses. By the Glass at 30-1 is a massive price but has shown some late interest in her races.​

Selections

Win: Intrepid Mo (4)
Place: How Sweet She Is/Dazzy (3A/9A)
Show: Isle Blue (6)


Race 8: Claiming $7,500 (Conditioned) for Fillies and Mares 3-Years-Old and Up at 6 Furlongs

Post Time: 3:28 PM ET

Eight fillies and mares contest the final race on the card, a claiming sprint to close out the afternoon.

Pace Analysis

Lady Charlotte projects as the dominant speed and could wire this field if left alone on the front end. I Believe in Magic has shown tactical speed as well. Royal Seamstress typically runs from just off the pace. The pace scenario favors Lady Charlotte if she can get away with soft fractions, but could set up for Royal Seamstress and others if the early splits are honest.​

Key Contenders

Lady Charlotte is the 9-5 favorite after winning third off a seven-month layoff last out, setting the pace and winning easily. She is a serious threat to once again go gate-to-wire. The Lacey Gaudet trainee has now found her form and should appreciate this class level.​

I Believe in Magic ran her best figure in months last out, earning an 80 in a blanket finish at Delaware Park. She has great tactical speed, and it is just a matter of if she can sustain her move. At 9-2, she represents solid value if Lady Charlotte encounters pressure.​

Royal Seamstress has finished behind Lady Charlotte in both of her two recent starts, losing to her by a neck two starts back and eating into her margin late in her most recent try. She gets an 8-pound weight shift in her favor with Yedsit Hazlewood aboard for the first time. At 3-1, she is a key contender.​

Secondary Choices

Yumyum Eat Em Up for Mario Serey Jr. has shown some form and could rally from off the pace. Skip Thru Da Fire gets weight off with Jose Vargas aboard and has shown competitiveness at this level.​

Longshots

Stormy Irish Lass is on the scratch watch but if she runs, could offer value at 20-1. Baby Sox also appears on the scratch watch as a main-track-only entrant. Paisley Singing at 15-1 has been around and could get a piece if the pace collapses.​

Selections

Win: Lady Charlotte (5)
Place: Royal Seamstress (7)
Show: I Believe In Magic (3)


Jockey Notes and Insights

Yedsit Hazlewood leads the Laurel Park jockey standings with 51 wins from 226 starts (23% win rate) and over $1.8 million in purses. He has mounts in Races 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8 today, including favorites Chilly Girl, Tipmanee, and Royal Seamstress. Hazlewood has been particularly effective when reunited with horses he has previously ridden to victory.​

Sheldon Russell is riding at a 26% win rate with 25 wins from 98 starts, earning over $1 million in purses. The husband of leading trainer Brittany Russell, he has key mounts today including Handsintheair in Race 2, Dynacito in Race 5, and Nola Boss in Race 6. The Russell husband-wife combination has been extremely profitable.​

Martin Chuan has been on a remarkable hot streak, winning three races on Thanksgiving Day and developing into a go-to rider for the Jamie Ness barn. The Peruvian native is 5-for-10 on Ness runners since Thanksgiving and is having career highs in victories (114) and earnings ($3.16 million). He has key mounts on Henry Gondorff and How Sweet She Is today.​

Jevian Toledo has 31 wins from 193 starts at the meet and represents excellent value on outsiders. He rides Paintmymasterpeace in Race 5, which could be a key victory. Toledo has been effective at getting horses to relax and fire late.​


Trainer Notes and Insights

Brittany Russell dominates the Laurel Park trainer standings with 37 wins from 113 starts (33% win rate) and $1.36 million in purses. She has multiple entries today including Sticktothesystem and Boss Mode in Race 1, Handsintheair in Race 2, Hixon and Dynacito in Race 5, and Nola Boss in Race 6. Her 12-for-39 record with first-time starters at one mile is particularly notable for Race 5 with Hixon.​

Jamie Ness ranks second in the trainer standings with 21 wins from 100 starts at the meet. He runs the coupled entry of How Sweet She Is and Dazzy in Race 7. Martin Chuan has developed a strong rapport with the barn, and Ness runners have been effective at multiple distances.​

Jose Corrales has been strong with juvenile runners throughout the meet and sends out Tipmanee in Race 4 and horses in the first race. His 13% win rate from 95 starts does not tell the full story of his effectiveness with 2-year-olds.​

John Robb has been particularly effective with his juvenile runners, winning his last two starters in races for 2-year-old winners. He sends out Knickoletta in Race 4 and Blind Love in Race 1. His 25% win rate from 48 starts merits attention.​

Michael Trombetta has 20 wins from 121 starts at the meet and sends out Virginia Gentry in Race 5 and Paradise Wins in Race 7. He has been effective with Live Oak Plantation homebreds throughout the meet.​


Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The late Pick 4 beginning in Race 5 offers excellent opportunities. A suggested ticket structure would be:

Race 5: 2, 3, 4 (Paintmymasterpeace, Hixon, Dynacito)
Race 6: 1, 2, 7, 8, 10 (Nola Boss, Kissling, Find Faith, Candycrumbs, Bright Charger)
Race 7: 4, 6 (Intrepid Mo, Isle Blue)
Race 8: 3, 5, 7 (I Believe in Magic, Lady Charlotte, Royal Seamstress)

This ticket covers the key contenders while keeping the cost manageable. For a more aggressive play, spreading Race 6 to include additional runners like City Panda and Imagine It All could catch a larger payout if an outsider wins.

The early Pick 5 (Races 1-5) can be played with focus on the Russell barn entries. Sticktothesystem in Race 1, Handsintheair in Race 2, and the Russell entries in Race 5 provide a solid foundation.

Best Value Plays include Bright Charger in Race 6 at 9-2, who has clear excuses for his recent poor performances and the figures to dominate this field if he returns to form. Tucker Tiki in Race 1 at 8-1 offers value off his layoff with strong recent works. Isle Blue in Race 7 at 6-1 is a logical spot for a lightly-raced filly stepping up after an easy maiden score.​

The Super High 5 carryover of $1,895 in Race 6 makes that an attractive wagering opportunity. The large field and uncertain pace scenario could produce a larger payoff than typical.

Given today's weather conditions with potential precipitation affecting the track, consider leaning toward speed and tactical horses in the early races while the surface may be most affected by the morning snow and freezing rain.

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