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Today’s card at Tampa Bay Downs features nine races with a mix of dirt and turf contests. The spotlight falls on the 9th race, a $56,500 Allowance Optional Claiming event on the turf that has drawn a competitive field of classy routers including entries from the barns of Graham Motion, Bill Mott, and Mark Casse. The card is anchored by a sequence of claiming events that offer deep betting pools and value opportunities, particularly in the Pick 4 and Pick 5 sequences.
Weather and Track Conditions
Forecast: The forecast for Oldsmar calls for pleasant conditions with partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid-70s. Winds are expected to be light, having minimal impact on the stretch run.
Track Surface:
- Dirt: The main track is listed as Fast. The dirt surface at Tampa has been playing fair early in the meet, though a slight advantage to horses who can press the pace or stalk from the inside paths has been noted in route races.
- Turf: The turf course is listed as Firm. The rail is set at 22 feet today. Historically, this setting preserves the inside ground but often plays fair to closers. At this setting, horses saving ground around the turns before angling out tend to have the best trips, although wide rallies are possible if the pace is hot.
Jockey Notes and Insights
Samuel Marin continues to be a rider to watch, particularly on the turf. His patience and timing on the Tampa grass course have yielded a high win percentage, and he has live mounts today in Races 3, 4, 5, 7, and 9. Marin’s ability to save ground with the rail out at 22 feet will be a key factor.
Antonio Gallardo and Daniel Centeno remain staples of the colony. Gallardo is particularly dangerous on dirt sprinters (Race 4, 7, 8) where he excels at getting horses into a rhythm. Jose Ferrer is a veteran who often brings in longshots; watch him in Race 1 on Strengthnguidance and Race 9 on Innately Good.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Juan Arriagada (Race 4) has excellent stats with horses coming off layoffs or shipping in. His entry Anchises in the 4th fits this profile perfectly.
Kathleen O’Connell (Races 2, 7, 8) is a volume leader at Tampa and excels in claiming ranks. Her horses often improve second off the layoff. Look for Mrs. Katz (Race 7) and One Violent Affair (Race 8) to be well-meant.
Gerald Bennett (Race 6) is a perennial leading trainer here. He spots his horses aggressively, and Lady in Heels in the 6th is placed at a level where she should be very competitive.
Bill Mott and Graham Motion (Race 9) rarely ship to Tampa without intent. Their presence in the feature race signals that Royal Majesty and Tok Tok are in top form.
Race 1 Analysis
Claiming $8,000 (N2L) | 1 Mile 40 Yards | Dirt
Pace Analysis
The pace scenario appears moderate. Fore Flag possesses tactical speed and may look to secure position early. Theo’s Thunder can also be forwardly placed. In a race with limited early speed, the horse that breaks cleanest and secures the rail into the first turn will have a distinct advantage.
Key Contenders
Fore Flag (5-2) ships in from Horseshoe Indianapolis where he faced tougher $12,500 company. The drop to the $8,000 level is a significant class relief. He has shown the ability to run effective races at this distance and should appreciate the company today.
Theo’s Thunder (3-1) is a consistent check-earner for Antonio Sano. He fits well at this level and draws the rail, which is advantageous in two-turn dirt races at Tampa.
Secondary Choices
Ambushed (4-1) is a grinder who will be running on late. If the pace heats up unexpectedly, he picks up the pieces.
If I Were You (9-2) represents the Michael Simone barn. He has been inconsistent but has back class that fits this field.
Betting Strategy
Focus on Fore Flag to win. A small exact box of 1-5-8 provides coverage.
Selections
Win: Fore Flag
Place: Theo’s Thunder
Show: Ambushed
Race 2 Analysis
Claiming $16,000 (NW3L) | 6 Furlongs | Dirt
Pace Analysis
Answer the Call and Glorious Lady both possess early zip. Expect a contested pace up front, which could set things up for a stalker if they duel too hard. However, in a six-furlong sprint at this level, speed often holds.
Key Contenders
Answer the Call (2-1) runs for the Gregg Sacco barn. She has been facing similar company and knocking on the door. Her speed figures are competitive, and Charlie Marquez stays aboard.
Glorious Lady (5-2) is trained by Kathleen O’Connell. She has speed and draws well to stalk or lead. The cutback or lateral move in distance suits her running style.
Secondary Choices
Heavenly Dancer (4-1) is a consistent type for Jon Arnett. She may sit just off the pace and pounce if the leaders tire.
Deetz (6-1) is a three-year-old facing older mares but has upside.
Betting Strategy
Answer the Call looks like the speed of the speed or the primary presser. She is the most likely winner.
Selections
Win: Answer the Call
Place: Glorious Lady
Show: Heavenly Dancer
Race 3 Analysis
Claiming $16,000 (NW2L) | 6 Furlongs | Dirt
Pace Analysis
Hasten and Son of a Slew show early foot. Divo d’Oro also has tactical speed. This race should have an honest pace.
Key Contenders
Divo d’Oro (3-1) gets the services of Samuel Marin. He was scratched from a race at Gulfstream recently, likely to await this softer spot. His best effort puts him in the winner’s circle.
Devil of Ramadi (7-2) had a vet scratch in November but returns here. If he is healthy, his form from the NY circuit (Aqueduct) would crush this field. He is the class play.
Secondary Choices
Hasten (4-1) has speed and the rail. He will likely try to take them gate to wire.
Go Yoshida (5-1) is a closer who needs a meltdown up front.
Betting Strategy
Devil of Ramadi is the value play if he stays near his morning line. If he takes too much money, pivot to Divo d’Oro.
Selections
Win: Devil of Ramadi
Place: Divo d’Oro
Show: Hasten
Race 4 Analysis
Claiming $6,250 | 1 Mile 40 Yards | Dirt
Pace Analysis
Passioned and Mr Tito’s are veterans who know this track. The pace should be slow to moderate, favoring horses who can stay close.
Key Contenders
Anchises (5-2) is the top selection. Trained by Juan Arriagada, who excels with this type of claimer. Anchises has back class and should be ready to fire off the brief freshening.
Street Glide (3-1) runs for Jon Arnett and Samuel Marin rides. He is consistent at this bottom level and rarely runs a bad race.
Secondary Choices
Mr Tito’s (9-2) is a Tampa Bay Downs regular. He is an old warrior who always puts in a run. Hard to leave out of the exotics.
Mission Mike (6-1) has speed figures that fit, but he needs a clean trip.
Betting Strategy
Anchises is a strong win candidate. Key him in the Daily Double.
Selections
Win: Anchises
Place: Street Glide
Show: Mr Tito’s
Race 5 Analysis
Claiming $25,000 (NW3L) | 1 1/16 Miles | Turf
Pace Analysis
Turf routes at Tampa with the rail at 22 feet often play to stalkers. Whirlwind and No Mo Cookies may show speed.
Key Contenders
Risadita (3-1) comes from the Kelly Breen barn with Sonny Leon riding. She drops in for a tag and has faced better company. Her late kick should be effective here.
Stillthinkingofyou (7-2) gets Samuel Marin. She has been running consistent races and the jockey upgrade is a significant positive.
Secondary Choices
Summer Flower (5-1) runs for Michael Dini. She is a solid turf performer who will be running on late.
Whirlwind (6-1) is the potential speed of the race. If she gets loose on a slow pace, she could steal it.
Betting Strategy
This is a competitive race. Risadita offers the best class value.
Selections
Win: Risadita
Place: Stillthinkingofyou
Show: Summer Flower
Race 6 Analysis
Claiming $5,000 | 5 1/2 Furlongs | Dirt
Pace Analysis
A sprint for $5k mares often results in a chaotic pace. Lady in Heels has speed, as does Bold Baby.
Key Contenders
Lady in Heels (5-2) is trained by Gerald Bennett. This is his bread-and-butter level. She should be forwardly placed and tough to catch.
Captured Darling (4-1) runs for Patrick McBurney. She has been facing slightly better competition and fits well here.
Secondary Choices
Jokes Up (9-2) gets Samuel Marin. She is inconsistent but has a big race in her occasionally.
Next Episode (6-1) draws the rail and could save ground to hit the board.
Betting Strategy
Lady in Heels is the most probable winner on the card. Singled in multi-race wagers.
Selections
Win: Lady in Heels
Place: Captured Darling
Show: Jokes Up
Race 7 Analysis
Claiming $16,000 | 1 1/16 Miles | Turf
Pace Analysis
Classy Disposition and Mrs. Katz have tactical speed. The rail at 22 feet will force wide runners to lose significant ground, so inside posts are preferred.
Key Contenders
Pemberley (3-1) runs for Jose D’Angelo and has Samuel Marin aboard. This is a high-percentage jockey/trainer combo. She has strong turf form and should be rolling late.
Mrs. Katz (7-2) represents Kathleen O’Connell. She has good tactical speed which allows her to work out a trip from the inside.
Secondary Choices
Classy Disposition (5-1) is dangerous if allowed to set slow fractions.
Fullmoonmagic (6-1) is stablemate to Mrs. Katz and offers value underneath.
Betting Strategy
Box Pemberley and Mrs. Katz in exactas.
Selections
Win: Pemberley
Place: Mrs. Katz
Show: Classy Disposition
Race 8 Analysis
Claiming $5,000 | 7 Furlongs | Dirt
Pace Analysis
Seven furlongs is a specialist distance. One Violent Affair has speed but must avoid a duel.
Key Contenders
One Violent Affair (3-1) is another O’Connell runner. She drops to the bottom and should wake up against this group.
Ruxton Rocks (4-1) has shown flashes of ability and gets Martina Rojas, whose bug allowance weight break is helpful here.
Secondary Choices
Sing Scat (5-1) can pick up the pieces if the pace collapses.
Drill’s Valentine (6-1) is a veteran mare who loves this track.
Betting Strategy
One Violent Affair is the class of the field.
Selections
Win: One Violent Affair
Place: Ruxton Rocks
Show: Drill’s Valentine
Race 9 Analysis
Allowance Optional Claiming $32,000 | 1 1/16 Miles | Turf
Pace Analysis
The feature race. Tok Tok has speed, as does Innately Good. The pace should be honest.
Key Contenders
Royal Majesty (GB) (2-1) is trained by Bill Mott and ridden by Junior Alvarado. He has faced much tougher company in New York and Kentucky. His class edge is significant, and he should be handling this group if ready.
Tok Tok (5-2) represents Graham Motion. He is a stakes-quality runner who will be very tough to beat if he runs his “A” race.
Secondary Choices
Street Earnings (9-2) comes from the Mark Casse barn. He is improving and fits well at this allowance level.
Eldest Son (8-1) is a value play for Michael Simone.
Betting Strategy
Royal Majesty is a likely single in the late Pick 4. If trying to beat him, use Tok Tok.
Selections
Win: Royal Majesty (GB)
Place: Tok Tok
Show: Street Earnings
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
Best Bet of the Day:
Race 6: Lady in Heels. Gerald Bennett dropping a horse to the $5,000 level in a sprint is a high-percentage angle. She looks faster than these.
Value Play of the Day:
Race 3: Devil of Ramadi. If the public overlooks him due to the scratch/layoff line, his back class from Aqueduct makes him a steal at 3-1 or higher.
Pick 4 Strategy (Races 6-9):
- Race 6: Lady in Heels
- Race 7: Pemberley, Mrs. Katz, Classy Disposition
- Race 8: One Violent Affair, Ruxton Rocks
- Race 9: Royal Majesty (GB), Tok Tok
Suggested Ticket Cost ($0.50 base): $6.00
