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Race 1 – Maiden Claiming – 1 Mile – Dirt – Purse 35,000 BOXED EXACTA

Win: Autumn’s Turn (6) – 85% Confidence🥈
Place: Cara’s Chianti (1) – 100% Confidence🥇
Show: Paraiba Blue (3) – 85% Confidence
Alternative: Katerina Ristova (2) – 85% Confidence

Notes:
Pick Pony analysts see a very clear four-horse separation. Every analyst includes Cara’s Chianti somewhere in the top group, but a majority use Autumn’s Turn as the primary win play despite mild prior stamina questions at the mile. Paraiba Blue and Katerina Ristova are almost universally treated as underneath keys rather than upset candidates. Overall pace looks moderate, which slightly favors Autumn’s Turn and Cara’s Chianti tracking just off any longshot speed.

Race 2 – Claiming – 6 Furlongs – Dirt – Purse 65,000 WIN

Win: Barksdale (5) – 100% Confidence
Place: Big Hat Willie (3) – 85% Confidence🥇
Show: Trust Issues (4) – 85% Confidence🥉
Alternative: Metalhead (6) – 70% Confidence

Notes:
Pick Pony analysts uniformly use Barksdale in the top three and most make him either top pick or co-top in this drop spot. Big Hat Willie is the strongest alternative on class and prior figures, with Trust Issues a grinding late threat who appears in nearly every analyst’s trifecta. Metalhead offers some price appeal off the recent Penn National win but generally ranks fourth. Social Hour is well respected but more often used as an exacta or trifecta filler rather than a prime win candidate.

Race 3 – Maiden Special Weight – 1 Mile – Dirt – Purse 80,000 WIN ($5.10)

Win: Fourth And One (2) – 100% Confidence🥇
Place: Max Money (1) – 85% Confidence
Show: Twenty One Red (5) – 85% Confidence🥉
Alternative: Tizlawry (4) – 70% Confidence

Notes:
Every core analyst includes Fourth And One in the top two, and consensus nudges him to the top slot on a combination of tactical speed and persistent hitting-the-board pattern. Max Money is viewed as the main danger with strong consistency and a similar forward style. Twenty One Red and Tizlawry are widely seen as running-on types most likely to fill out trifectas, with Royal Riddle and Snickery mainly reserved for deeper spread tickets. Projected pace looks honest but not suicidal, slightly favoring the two main forward runners.

Race 4 – Claiming – 1 1/8 Miles – Dirt – Purse 38,000 WIN + EXACTA

Win: Ministerial (5) – 85% Confidence🥇
Place: Best Bet (7) – 85% Confidence🥈
Show: He’s Got This (3) – 85% Confidence
Alternative: Unbridled Bomber (2) – 70% Confidence

Notes:
Pick Pony analysts are near-unanimous that Ministerial is the class of the field on the drop and prior speed figures, even off the layoff. Best Bet projects the most obvious stalk-and-pounce trip behind modest fractions and consistently appears as second choice. He’s Got This is used heavily underneath as a reliable grinder with some stretch stamina. Unbridled Bomber is a common value inclusion for those leaning toward a pace collapse possibility, while Bob John Ray and Eric From Miami show up mainly on wider exotic tickets.

Race 5 – Maiden Claiming – 1 Mile – Dirt – Purse 38,000 BOXED TRIFECTA

Win: Rose Lisa (4) – 100% Confidence🥈
Place: Wayward Queen (6) – 85% Confidence
Show: Banco Di Sicilia (1) – 70% Confidence🥇
Alternative: Luciana’s Honor (3) – 70% Confidence🥉

Notes:
All six primary analysts make Rose Lisa the top pick in a weak maiden, despite some prior inconsistency; this is clearly viewed as her right level. Opinions split on the others: Wayward Queen earns broad respect as the most likely improver stretching back out, while Banco Di Sicilia and Luciana’s Honor trade places as preferred underneath pieces based on trip projections and minor-figure differences. Late-run types Berbice Honey, Icy Legs, and Pencima are predominantly reserved for deep exotics as potential price enhancements rather than win threats.

Race 6 – Claiming – 6 Furlongs – Dirt – Purse 33,000

Win: Airborne Elite (7) – 70% Confidence
Place: Funny Uncle (6) – 100% Confidence🥈
Show: Capt Jax Parrow (3) – 70% Confidence
Alternative: Panagiotis (4) – 50% Confidence🥉

Notes:
Pick Pony analysts almost universally agree that Funny Uncle is a must-use in vertical and horizontal wagers, but slightly more lean to Airborne Elite as the top win choice based on class relief and overall speed profile. Capt Jax Parrow is a widely respected mid-price option with tactical speed and solid recent form. Panagiotis, Ace It, and the closers Sin Nombre and Dads Good Runner are perceived as next-tier runners who could pick up pieces if the main trio regress or hook into a duel. Collect From Ike is viewed as a longshot with more appeal for superfecta depth than for win bets.

Race 7 – Starter Optional Claiming – 1 Mile – Dirt – Purse 55,000 WIN

Win: Systemic Change (1) – 85% Confidence🥇
Place: Love Me Not (3) – 100% Confidence
Show: Sagamore Mischief (6) – 85% Confidence🥉
Alternative: Refuah (5) – 50% Confidence🥈

Notes:
This is one of the tighter consensus races from the Pick Pony analysts, but Systemic Change still stands out as the anchor, earning top billing from nearly every core handicapper. Love Me Not appears in all top-three rankings and is treated as the primary upset candidate with tactical speed and solid back class. Sagamore Mischief is widely seen as the key pace player who could take them a long way if left alone. Refuah profiles as a late-running overlay type, usually pegged for second or third in verticals. Power Seeker and Brew Pub show up mainly as secondary or backup inclusions on deeper tickets.

Race 8 – Maiden Special Weight – 1 Mile – Dirt – Purse 80,000

Win: Askingforafriend (7) – 85% Confidence
Place: Twohonestmischief (3) – 85% Confidence🥇
Show: Probability (5) – 70% Confidence🥈
Alternative: Poppy’s Ticket (8) – 70% Confidence

Notes:
Pick Pony analysts converge on the idea that the winner is very likely to come from Askingforafriend, Twohonestmischief, or Probability. Askingforafriend is the most frequently mentioned top choice, combining strong recent form with a perfect-track rider. Twohonestmischief brings dangerous pace and a highly consistent record, making him a frequent place and show selection. Probability divides opinion due to the long layoff but is still rated highly on raw talent. Poppy’s Ticket and Guilty are recurring underneath pieces in analyst structures, while price types Kaz Oil Changer, Klimt Master, and Nothingbutnitro, though mentioned by a minority, are treated as deep exotic bombs rather than realistic win candidates.

Recommended Exotic Bets and Value Plays

Presented from the collective Pick Pony analyst perspective, blending the consensus orders above with the most common exotic structures recommended across the expert sources.

Race 1 – Maiden Claiming

Pick Pony analysts favor building exactas and trifectas around Autumn’s Turn and Cara’s Chianti. The most common structures are two-horse exacta boxes using 6 and 1, with Paraiba Blue and Katerina Ristova rotated into third in trifectas. Value can come from leaning a bit more on Paraiba Blue for the show slot when odds drift above the logical level, given how frequently analysts include her in the top three.​

Race 2 – Claiming

The dominant exotic opinion is that Barksdale, Big Hat Willie, and Trust Issues anchor the vertical pools. Analysts frequently recommend exacta and trifecta boxes or keys featuring 5, 3, and 4, with Social Hour and Metalhead included underneath in tris and supers for coverage and price. One common angle is to key Barksdale on top in trifectas but wheel Big Hat Willie and Trust Issues into second and third with Social Hour and Metalhead, seeking separation if one of the main trio misfires.​

Race 3 – Maiden Special Weight

Most exotic tickets revolve around some combination of Fourth And One, Max Money, Tizlawry, and Twenty One Red. Analysts often play exacta boxes using 2 and 1 or 2 and 4, and trifectas that key Fourth And One on top while using Max Money and Tizlawry in second and third, with Twenty One Red as the main superfecta enhancer. Pick Pony analysts see some value in emphasizing Max Money in second and third rather than on top, since many sources already expect him to run well but not necessarily break through for the win.​

Race 4 – Claiming

Consensus exotic strategy is straightforward: lean heavily on Ministerial over Best Bet and He’s Got This. Multiple analysts recommend exacta boxes of 5 with 7, and 7 with 3, along with trifectas like 5–7–3 and 5–3–7 in various box and key formats. Unbridled Bomber and Bob John Ray are favored as fourth-position superfecta pieces that can provide payout lift without dramatically increasing ticket cost. Pick Pony analysts suggest that value may come from placing He’s Got This more prominently in second on some tickets if the win-pool attention focuses strictly on Ministerial and Best Bet.​

Race 5 – Maiden Claiming

In this weak group, analysts overwhelmingly treat Rose Lisa as the key single in many horizontal and vertical sequences. Typical vertical constructions key Rose Lisa on top in exactas and trifectas while using Wayward Queen, Banco Di Sicilia, Luciana’s Honor, and Berbice Honey underneath in various rotations. Several analysts recommend exacta boxes 4 with 2, 4 with 3, and 2 with 3 for coverage when Rose Lisa underperforms, but Pick Pony analysts view the more efficient approach as a win single on Rose Lisa with spread underneath in multi-race wagers. Luciana’s Honor, in particular, shows up in many models as a value play to run into the frame despite potential tote neglect.​

Race 6 – Claiming

Many analysts play this race as a spread situation in multi-race wagers but tighten vertically around Airborne Elite and Funny Uncle, with Capt Jax Parrow as the third pillar. Common exacta and trifecta plays include 7–6, 6–7, and 7–6–3, along with box formats of 7–6–3. Panagiotis, Ace It, Sin Nombre, and Dads Good Runner are added mainly at the superfecta level. From a value standpoint, Pick Pony analysts are particularly interested in Funny Uncle as a win overlay if the public over-commits to Airborne Elite, and in Capt Jax Parrow in the second and third slots where many models still rate him close to the top pair.​

Race 7 – Starter Optional Claiming

Systemic Change is widely deployed as a strong single in late horizontal sequences by several analysts, while exotics almost universally key the trio of Systemic Change, Love Me Not, and Sagamore Mischief. Recurrent structures include exacta boxes of 1–3 and 3–6 and trifectas centered on 1–3–6 plus Refuah as a fourth horse in boxes and supers. Pick Pony analysts see meaningful value in Sagamore Mischief if he goes off as the clear third choice, given how consistently he appears in the top three across expert projections. Refuah is repeatedly highlighted as a superfecta key thanks to his high in-the-money percentage and strong late pace.​

Race 8 – Maiden Special Weight

Analyst consensus in verticals is to use Askingforafriend, Twohonestmischief, and Probability as a tightly knit core, with Poppy’s Ticket and Guilty as the primary price enhancers. Recommended structures frequently include exacta boxes 7–3 and 7–5, and trifectas that key Askingforafriend in the top two spots while spreading with 3, 5, 8, and sometimes 6 in the lower rungs. Some models explicitly single Askingforafriend as a best bet; others tilt to Probability on class and long-term upside. Pick Pony analysts note that Twohonestmischief could offer the best value of the trio if his pace edge is underbet, particularly in exacta and trifecta constructions pairing him with Askingforafriend.​

Overall, the Pick Pony analysts’ view is that the late sequence (Races 5–8) offers the best combination of reliable anchors (Rose Lisa, Systemic Change, Askingforafriend) and viable value alternatives (Wayward Queen, Sagamore Mischief, Twohonestmischief) for constructing aggressive but disciplined exotic and multi-race strategies.