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Turfway Park kicks off a stellar Saturday card featuring the $125,000 Boone County Stakes, supported by a strong undercard of maiden special weights and allowance optional claimers. The “Holiday Meet” is in full swing, and fields are deep and competitive, typical of the winter racing season in Florence, Kentucky.
Top connections are out in force tonight, with Wesley Ward, Mark Casse, and Mike Maker fielding multiple contenders in key spots. The spotlight is on Race 7, where graded stakes winner Funtastic Again returns to his favorite surface to clash with the classy Honor Marie and Strong Quality.
Weather and Track Conditions
- Forecast: Expect cold winter conditions with temperatures hovering in the low-to-mid 30s and dropping into the 20s after dark. Skies will likely be cloudy but dry.
- Track Condition: Fast (Synthetic/Tapeta). The Tapeta surface handles cold weather exceptionally well, though frigid temperatures can sometimes “tighten” the track, making it play slightly quicker than usual.
- Bias:
- Sprints (6f – 6.5f): The track often favors horses with early speed or those who can press the pace. Outside posts (7-12) tend to perform slightly better than the rail in sprints, allowing horses to stay in the clear.
- Routes (1 Mile+): Inside posts are advantageous due to the short run to the first turn. The surface plays fair for routes, giving stalkers and closers a legitimate chance if the pace is honest.
Race 1: Maiden Claiming $5,000
Distance: 6 Furlongs | Post Time: 5:55 PM ET
Pace Analysis
A low-level claiming sprint often produces a chaotic pace. Stormin Willie (1) and King Hazelton (9) show flashes of early foot in their past performances and may be forced to send from their respective draws. Warlord (10), dropping significantly in class for Wesley Ward, has the natural speed to clear this field if he breaks sharply.
Key Contenders
- #10 Warlord (5-2): The clear horse to beat. Dropping from Maiden Special Weight/higher claiming ranks straight to the bottom ($5k) for Wesley Ward. While the plunge is suspicious, Ward’s stats with this move are potent, and this gelding likely has far too much speed for this group.
- #8 King’s Plan (4-1): Consistent speed figures that fit well at this level. Jockey Joseph Trejos should have him in a stalking position just off the leaders.
Secondary Choices
- #13 Can of Corn (8-1): Drawn wide but has shown improvement. If he can cross over and avoid being hung out 5-wide, he can land a share.
- #1 Stormin Willie (6-1): The rail draw is tricky, but he drops to a competitive level. If he breaks running, he could hold on for a piece.
Betting Strategy
Warlord will likely be overbet but is the most probable winner. The value lies in finding the place/show horse.
- Win: #10 Warlord
- Exacta: 10 w/ 1, 8, 13
Race 2: Claiming $5,000 (N3L)
Distance: 1 Mile | Post Time: 6:25 PM ET
Pace Analysis
Rancho (1) and Faster (3) possess the best early speed. Cow Creek Kid (2) also likes to be forward. Expect a contested pace upfront, which could set up well for a stalker like Transactional (5).
Key Contenders
- #1 Rancho (6-1): Speed from the rail. Coming off a decent effort and fits well with these claiming conditions. Trainer Rey Hernandez is capable with these types.
- **#3 Faster (9): Has competitive speed figures and gets Luan Machado, one of the circuit’s top riders. Should sit a perfect trip just off Rancho.
Secondary Choices
- #5 Transactional (GB) (5-1): The “GB” suffix often indicates affinity for turf/synthetic. Drops in for a tag and should be running late.
- #10 Greatdayforhockey (8-1): Julien Leparoux takes the mount. A wide draw is a slight negative at the mile distance, but he has the class to compete.
Selections
- Win: #3 Faster
- Place: #1 Rancho
- Show: #5 Transactional (GB)
Race 3: Claiming $12,500
Distance: 1 Mile | Post Time: 6:55 PM ET
Pace Analysis
Cleopatra’s Nile (5) and Enticing Sunset (1) should vie for the early lead. The pace looks moderate, which may favor horses who can stay close to the front rather than deep closers.
Key Contenders
- **#9 Spoils of War (5): Arrives in good form for trainer Horacio De Paz. Fits the class level perfectly and has the tactical speed to overcome the outside draw.
- #5 Cleopatra’s Nile (4-1): A dangerous front-runner if left alone. Fernando De La Cruz is an expert at rationing speed on the Tapeta.
Longshots
- #10 Ligeia (10-1): Drawn wide but has back class. If the pace heats up more than expected, she will be the one closing fast.
Selections
- Win: #9 Spoils of War
- Place: #5 Cleopatra’s Nile
- Show: #10 Ligeia
Race 4: Claiming $15,000 (N2L)
Distance: 1 Mile | Post Time: 7:25 PM ET
Pace Analysis
Moon Dance Laura (1) has the rail and speed. Learning to Fly (6) stretches out and could show more early foot. A relatively paceless race on paper could turn into a jockey’s race.
Key Contenders
- #6 Learning to Fly (3-1): Trained by Keri Brion, a barn that excels with turf-to-synthetic movers. Gets Adam Beschizza. Should improve in her second start off a layoff/class adjustment.
- #2 Dreaming of Nana (7-2): Trainer Eric Reed is savvy with these claiming types. Consistent check-earner who finds a soft spot here.
Secondary Choices
- #11 Bisa (6-1): Eduardo Caramori trainee who might wake up at a price. The wide post is a hurdle, but the talent is there for this level.
Selections
- Win: #6 Learning to Fly
- Place: #2 Dreaming of Nana
- Show: #11 Bisa
Race 5: Maiden Special Weight
Distance: 6 Furlongs | Post Time: 7:55 PM ET | Purse: $100,000
Pace Analysis
A loaded maiden race. Policy Change (4) and War Legend (3) show high early speed figures. Shellac (8) also has gas. Expect a hot pace of :22 and change for the opening quarter.
Key Contenders
- #4 Policy Change (5-2): The one to beat. Trainer Mike Maker and jockey Joseph Ramos are a lethal combo (25% win rate together). Has flashed high speed and should take to the Tapeta.
- #3 War Legend (4-1): Mark Casse trainee with Luan Machado. Casse’s horses often improve dramatically on synthetic. Has shown speed in turf sprints that should translate well here.
Secondary Choices
- **#6n the Dark (5-1): Consistent runner who has hit the board in New York. The switch to Turfway and Gerardo Corrales signals intent.
- #8 Shellac (5-1): William Morey wins at a high clip (21%) at Turfway. A must-use in exotics.
Selections
- Win: #4 Policy Change
- Place: #3 War Legend
- Show: #6 In the Dark
Race 6: Claiming $30,000
Distance: 6 1/2 Furlongs | Post Time: 8:25 PM ET
Pace Analysis
Slider (13) is extremely fast and will likely gun for the lead from the outside. Vodka N Gingerale (2) and Holy Alimony (3) will try to keep him honest.
Key Contenders
- #13 Slider (3-2): The class of the field. Trained by Steve Asmussen, this colt has faced much tougher company (stakes placed). If he clears from the outside post, he could be gone.
- #1 Tiverton (GB) (3-1): The main danger. European import now with Chris Hartman. “GB” horses often excel on Tapeta. He will be closing into the pace set by Slider.
Longshots
- **#11 Big Salt Lick (5): Listed at 5-2 but might drift up with Slider taking money. Joe Sharp trainee who has good tactical speed and fits the “presser” profile that wins these sprints.
Selections
- Win: #13 Slider
- Place: #1 Tiverton (GB)
- Show: #11 Big Salt Lick
Race 7: The Boone County Stakes
Distance: 1 1/4 Miles | Post Time: 8:55 PM ET | Purse: $125,000
Pace Analysis
Funtastic Again (1) is a natural speed horse and draws the rail; expect Gerardo Corrales to send him. Strong Quality (2) is also very fast. These two could hook up early, but Funtastic Again has shown he can rate if needed. Safe Trip Home (6) will be closing from the clouds.
Key Contenders
- #1 Funtastic Again (5-1): A previous stakes winner over this track (Leonatus Stakes). Wesley Ward has him ready off the layoff. He loves the surface (perfect 2-for-2 or similar high strike rate on AW). The controlling speed.
- #4 Honor Marie (7-1): A legitimate graded stakes horse (Kentucky Derby trail alum). The class relief here is massive. If he handles the synthetic, he wins on ability alone.
- **# Swift Delivery (4-1): Mark Casse entry who has been facing tough company. “Looks to regain winning ways” and has been working well.
Secondary Choices
- #6 Safe Trip Home (7-2): A specialist at these marathon distances. If the pace melts down, he will be the one flying late.
- #9 Common Defense (3-1): Another class horse from the McPeek barn. Consistent and tough.
Selections
- Win: #1 Funtastic Again
- Place: #4 Honor Marie
- Show: #10 Swift Delivery
Race 8: Allowance Optional Claiming $40,000
Distance: 6 1/2 Furlongs | Post Time: 9:25 PM ET
Pace Analysis
Its Bourbon Thirty (6) is a “need-the-lead” type. Eye Witness (3) and Miacomet (12) also have speed. This sets up for a stalker/closer.
Key Contenders
- #8 Big Vince (9-2): Larry Rivelli shipper. Rivelli has an incredible win percentage with synthetic sprinters. Has won 3 of 7 starts. Perfect stalking style.
- #3 Eye Witness (7-1): Talented turf sprinter transferring to synthetic. If he handles the footing, his back class (stakes winner) makes him dangerous.
Longshots
- #11 Kavod (5-1): An old warrior who has earned nearly $2 million. He loves a dogfight and fits these conditions perfectly.
Selections
- Win: #8 Big Vince
- Place: #3 Eye Witness
- Show: #11 Kavod
Race 9: Claiming $5,000
Distance: 5 1/2 Furlongs | Post Time: 9:55 PM ET
Pace Analysis
Zoombie (4) and Zappinit (7) are the speed. In a 5.5f dash, the start is everything.
Key Contenders
- #4 Zoombie (3-1): Another Rivelli runner. Likely to be gunned from the gate. If he clears, he’s the winner.
- #12 Into the Sunrise (4-1): Has massive back class (stakes competitor in the past). Now at the bottom level. The wide draw is tough, but he is far superior to these on his best day.
Selections
- Win: #4 Zoombie
- Place: #12 Into the Sunrise
- Show: #7 Zappinit
Race 10: Maiden Claiming $30,000
Distance: 1 Mile | Post Time: 10:25 PM ET
Key Contenders
- #5 Canterbury Lane (7-2): Wesley Ward in a maiden claimer. Usually a sign of a “win now” drop.
- #13 Country Club (4-1): Rodolphe Brisset trainee with Julien Leparoux. Bad post (13), but the long run to the turn at 1 mile gives him time to tuck in.
Selections
- Win: #5 Canterbury Lane
- Place: #13 Country Club
- Show: #1 Scribble
Jockey & Trainer Notes
Jockeys to Watch
- Luan Machado: The dominant rider at Turfway Park. He understands the “patience” required on the Tapeta surface better than anyone. Watch him on Faster (R2) and War Legend (R5).
- Gerardo Corrales: Aggressive rider who excels with speed horses. A perfect match for Funtastic Again (R7).
- Joseph Ramos: Riding in top form. His partnership with Mike Maker (Policy Change, R5) is deadly.
Trainers to Watch
- Wesley Ward: When he enters in low-level claimers (Warlord, R1) or maiden claimers (Canterbury Lane, R10), it is often a winning move.
- Mark Casse: Always dangerous with his synthetic string. Look for his horses to improve significantly if moving from dirt to Tapeta.
- Larry Rivelli: A 30%+ trainer at Turfway. His sprinters (Big Vince, Zoombie) are “live” when they show up in the entries.
Best Wagering Strategies
The “Lock” of the Night
- Race 1: #10 Warlord. The class drop is massive, and Ward is likely just clearing the payroll, but this horse should outclass the field.
Best Value Play
- Race 7: #1 Funtastic Again (5-1). In a race with “name brand” horses like Honor Marie, the local specialist Funtastic Again might get overlooked. He is the controlling speed on the rail.
Suggested Pick 4 (Races 5-8)
- Leg 1 (R5): 3, 4
- Leg 2 (R6): 1, 13
- Leg 3 (R7): 1, 4, 6, 10
- Leg 4 (R8): 3, 8
- Cost for $0.50 ticket: $16.00
