Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!
Don’t forget Pick Pony’s Expert Picks, AI Picks, and Past Performance Sheets/Racing Forms!
The Pick Pony Handicapper's Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
The Tuesday card at Turf Paradise features an eight-race lineup headlined by two stakes events for Arizona-bred two-year-olds: the Arizona Breeders' Futurity for fillies in the sixth race and the colts and geldings division in the eighth. The program begins with a Quarter Horse sprint before transitioning to Thoroughbreds for the remainder of the afternoon. The racing surface has been playing quickly this meet, and speed has been a dominant asset on the main track. The turf course, with the rail set at 21 feet, typically favors horses that can save ground, although the setting may allow for fair running from off the pace if the fractions are honest.
Weather and Track Conditions
The weather for Phoenix on Tuesday, December 9, 2025, is forecasted to be unseasonably warm and sunny, with highs reaching near 80 degrees. There is no precipitation in the forecast, ensuring a fast main track and a firm turf course. Handicappers should expect the dirt to continue favoring speed, particularly in the shorter sprint races where inside posts often hold a statistical advantage. The turf course should be firm and quick, favoring horses with a turn of foot who can secure position before the turns.
Race 1
Post Time: 1:15 PM MT
Pace Analysis
This 300-yard Quarter Horse dash features a field of mixed experience. In these short sprints, the break is everything. Strawfly Jimmy and Dillinger Dash have shown the ability to break sharply in previous outings. Expect a scramble for the lead immediately out of the gate, with the race likely decided in the first 100 yards.
Key Contenders
Strawfly Jimmy, trained by Javier Duarte, enters this spot with solid connections and looks to be the class of the field. Duarte has a strong record with Quarter Horses at this level, and this gelding should be sharp today. Dillinger Dash is another major player who fits well here on speed figures. His recent form suggests he is sitting on a big effort, and he draws a favorable post to get away cleanly.
Secondary Choices
Hes Mighty Perfect offers some value underneath. While he may lack the raw explosion of the top two, he is consistent and could pick up the pieces if the leaders falter. Prince Shasta is a veteran who knows the game and could sneak into the exotics with a clean trip.
Betting Strategy
Focus on Strawfly Jimmy to win, but a quinella or exacta box with Dillinger Dash is a prudent play given the volatility of Quarter Horse sprints.
Selections
Win: Strawfly Jimmy
Place: Dillinger Dash
Show: Hes Mighty Perfect
Race 2
Post Time: 1:43 PM MT
Pace Analysis
With the likely scratch of the speedier Naturally Blonde, the pace scenario shifts significantly. Royal Dusty and Lani's Sweetheart should inherit the early initiative. The fractions may be moderate, giving the advantage to those near the front.
Key Contenders
Royal Dusty becomes the horse to beat. With Glenn Corbett in the irons for trainer Clay Brinson, this filly should benefit from the softer field. She has shown flashes of ability that would be more than enough to handle this group of maiden claimers. Lani's Sweetheart, trained by Vann Belvoir, is another logical contender who figures to be involved early. Belvoir is a high-percentage trainer, and his horses are usually live when spotted at this level.
Secondary Choices
Majestic Vibes has been working steadily and could wake up in this spot. At this low claiming level, any improvement makes her a threat. Cougar Jewel represents the Silva-Martinez barn and could improve off her recent efforts to hit the board.
Betting Strategy
With the expected scratch of the morning line favorite, Royal Dusty becomes a standout. A win bet on her is the primary play. Exactas using Royal Dusty over Lani's Sweetheart and Majestic Vibes offer decent potential.
Selections
Win: Royal Dusty
Place: Lani's Sweetheart
Show: Majestic Vibes
Race 3
Post Time: 2:11 PM MT
Pace Analysis
This 5 1/2 furlong sprint for claimers should see a lively pace. Strength of Autism has natural early foot and will likely be sent from the gate. Peso and Run Snappy also possess early speed, ensuring that the fractions will be honest.
Key Contenders
Strength of Autism is the clear top selection here. Trained by Wendell Matt and ridden by the circuit's top jockey, Harry Hernandez, this gelding looks formidable. The expected scratch of Major Tom removes his biggest competition, leaving Strength of Autism as the controlling speed and class of the race. Peso is a consistent runner who runs for the capable Debbie Peery barn. He should be tracking the pace and gets the jump on the deep closers.
Secondary Choices
Run Snappy is a veteran campaigner who can never be counted out at this level. If the pace collapses, he will be the one running late. Bedrock is another old-timer who knows his way to the winner's circle and could add value to the exotics.
Betting Strategy
Strength of Autism is a likely single in multi-race wagers. For vertical wagers, key him on top of Peso and Run Snappy.
Selections
Win: Strength of Autism
Place: Peso
Show: Run Snappy
Race 4
Post Time: 2:40 PM MT
Pace Analysis
This one-mile turf event features a fascinating clash of styles. Dontmesswithtess and Derrygoolin both have tactical speed and should be forwardly placed. The rail setting at 21 feet often keeps the field tight, so positioning into the first turn will be critical.
Key Contenders
Dontmesswithtess is an intriguing entrant for trainer Frank Ortiz. She brings back class and gets the services of veteran Frank Alvarado. Her best races on the grass make her strictly the one to beat. Derrygoolin, from the Jose Silva, Jr. barn, is a consistent turf performer who fits these conditions perfectly. Karlo Lopez riding is a huge plus, and she should be right there at the wire.
Secondary Choices
Cameron Slough is the wildcard. Trained by the Hall of Famer Neil Drysdale, this mare shipping into Turf Paradise is a significant angle. While the drop in venue can sometimes be a red flag, Drysdale's horses must always be respected on class alone. Harry Hernandez takes the mount, which signals intent. Flame McGoon, trained by Robertino Diodoro, is another dangerous runner who could factor if the pace heats up.
Betting Strategy
This is a competitive race. A win bet on Dontmesswithtess is the play, but boxing her with Derrygoolin and Cameron Slough in exactas is recommended.
Selections
Win: Dontmesswithtess
Place: Derrygoolin
Show: Cameron Slough
Race 5
Post Time: 3:09 PM MT
Pace Analysis
In this 4 1/2 furlong dash, speed is the only asset that matters. Memolotsamischief and Ridin Solo will likely gun for the lead. The short run into the turn at this distance favors outside horses who can clear or inside horses who break fast.
Key Contenders
Memolotsamischief looks like the speed of the speed. Alex Cruz is an aggressive gate rider, and this gelding should be on the engine from the start. If he clears, he may never look back. Hail State is a hard-knocking veteran who runs well at this distance. He may not have the pure blast of the top pick, but he will be finishing strongly.
Secondary Choices
Teddy's Triumph has been consistent and fits well in this starter allowance company. He should get a good stalking trip behind the leaders. Ridin Solo is dangerous if he can avoid a wide trip from the start.
Betting Strategy
Memolotsamischief is a strong win candidate. Play him to win and key him in doubles and Pick 3s.
Selections
Win: Memolotsamischief
Place: Hail State
Show: Teddy's Triumph
Race 6
Post Time: 3:38 PM MT
Pace Analysis
The Arizona Breeders' Futurity for fillies features a field of promising two-year-olds. Hidden Beauty and Ten of Hearts appear to be the quickest early. In these young horse races, the one who handles the atmosphere and breaks cleanest often wins.
Key Contenders
Hidden Beauty, trained by the powerhouse Robertino Diodoro, is the consensus choice. Diodoro excels with young horses, and this filly has trained well for her stakes engagement. Orlando Mojica rides, adding confidence. Rascally Rabbit, from the Kevin Eikleberry barn, is the main danger. Eikleberry is a master with Arizona-breds, and having Frank Alvarado aboard suggests this filly is live.
Secondary Choices
Ten of Hearts has shown speed in the mornings and could be dangerous if she gets loose on the lead. Western Feel is an improver who could pick up a share if the pace is too hot up front.
Betting Strategy
Hidden Beauty looks like a solid favorite. An exacta box with Rascally Rabbit is the safest way to play this stakes race.
Selections
Win: Hidden Beauty
Place: Rascally Rabbit
Show: Ten of Hearts
Race 7
Post Time: 4:07 PM MT
Pace Analysis
This turf mile features the classiest horse on the card in Zoffarelli (IRE). The pace should be moderate, likely set by Del Rayo or Fireman Dan. Zoffarelli typically runs from off the pace but may be closer today given the class relief.
Key Contenders
Zoffarelli (IRE) is a standout on paper. A former Grade 3 winner and Grade 2 placed runner, he is dropping into an allowance/optional claiming spot that is far below his back class. Trained by Juan Pablo Silva and ridden by Alex Cruz, he simply needs to run his race to win. The Black Strat is a solid turf horse who can handle this distance and should be closing late.
Secondary Choices
I'm Noble enters in good form and could hit the board at a price. Del Rayo will likely be part of the early pace and could hang on for a minor share if allowed to set slow fractions.
Betting Strategy
Zoffarelli is the most likely winner on the card. He is a single in all multi-race wagers. The only concern is the dramatic class drop, but at this level, his talent should prevail.
Selections
Win: Zoffarelli (IRE)
Place: The Black Strat
Show: I'm Noble
Race 8
Post Time: 4:36 PM MT
Pace Analysis
The colts and geldings division of the Futurity is a full field of twelve. Traffic will be an issue. Ez Cowboy and Rock'n Awesome figure to be the main speed. The break will be crucial, especially for those drawn inside.
Key Contenders
Ez Cowboy, with Harry Hernandez riding for Vann Belvoir, looks like the horse to beat. He has shown professionalism and speed in his works and fits the profile of a future stakes winner. Rock'n Awesome is the Diodoro entrant, which demands respect. He draws well and should be in the mix throughout.
Secondary Choices
Dormello's Legacy has the pedigree to improve and runs for the astute Dan McFarlane barn. Secret Insanity is a sleeper from the Eikleberry shedrow who could surprise at a price.
Betting Strategy
Ez Cowboy and Rock'n Awesome are the two to use. An exacta box of these two is the logical play.
Selections
Win: Ez Cowboy
Place: Rock'n Awesome
Show: Dormello's Legacy
Jockey Notes and Insights
Harry Hernandez continues to be the rider to watch at Turf Paradise. He is listed on several live mounts today, including Strength of Autism (Race 3) and Ez Cowboy (Race 8). When Hernandez teams up with top barns like Belvoir or Diodoro, the win percentage is exceptionally high. Karlo Lopez is another rider in top form, particularly on turf routes; watch his ride on Derrygoolin in Race 4. Veteran Frank Alvarado makes a notable appearance on the card, riding key contenders like Dontmesswithtess and Rascally Rabbit, suggesting these horses are meant to run big today.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Robertino Diodoro and Justin Evans remain the dominant forces on the backside. Diodoro sends out heavily favored runners in the stakes races (Hidden Beauty, Rock'n Awesome) and typically has them cranked for big days. Justin Evans has faced some scratches today but remains dangerous with any starter. Juan Pablo Silva sends out Zoffarelli in Race 7; the aggressive placement of this class dropper suggests the barn is looking for a confidence-building win. Kevin Eikleberry's presence in the Arizona-bred stakes (Races 6 & 8) is significant, as his stable focuses heavily on these state-bred programs.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The best bet of the day is Zoffarelli (IRE) in Race 7. His back class is superior to this field, and he should handle the turf mile with ease. For value, Royal Dusty in Race 2 becomes a strong play with the expected scratch of the favorite. In the stakes races, the Diodoro/Hernandez and Diodoro/Mojica combinations are likely to be overbet, so looking for the Eikleberry runners like Rascally Rabbit in exactas could provide better value.
Suggested Pick 3 (Races 6-8):
Race 6: 2, 3
Race 7: 5
Race 8: 3, 8
