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Pick Pony takes pride in providing the most accurate expert picks available today. Pick Pony Expert Picks are carefully selected by our team of analysts based on analytics from our advanced Past Performance Sheets and Racing Forms. For potential longshot selections, check out Pick Pony’s AI Picks.
Race 1 Claiming, 1 Mile, Tapeta
Win: Red Rose Rockin (#1) – 62% confidence
Place: What About Now (#2) – 38% confidence
Show: Airforce Lightning (#8) – 38% confidence
Alternative: Mardene (#9) – 25% confidence
Multiple analysts emphasize Red Rose Rockin’s recent placing form at Horseshoe Indianapolis combined with strong trainer and jockey statistics. The consensus finish order suggests a competitive race where the main contenders have demonstrated recent affinity for competing at this distance and surface combination.
Race 2 Maiden Claiming, 5 Furlongs, Tapeta
Win: Shez Twisted (#12) – 33% confidence
Place: Nightshade Forest (#5) – 17% confidence
Show: Carol’s Melody (#11) – 17% confidence
Alternative: Zoomaha (#4) – 17% confidence
Analysts point to Shez Twisted’s threatening recent finish at Hawthorne when heavily backed as supporting evidence for win consideration. The lack of consensus below the win position indicates pace dynamics and early positioning may prove decisive in determining place and show finishers. Carol’s Melody’s drop in class with blinker removal and jockey change provide positive indicators noted by analysts.
Race 3 Claiming, 1 1/8 Miles, Tapeta
Win: White Lilacs (#5) – 33% confidence
Place: Ziggzappa (#3) – 33% confidence
Show: Talent Show (#7) – 17% confidence
Alternative: Embrace Me (#8) – 17% confidence
White Lilacs carries three wins from eight attempts this campaign following recent rest, with analysts viewing the horse as the main threat despite Embrace Me’s morning-line favoritism. The split between White Lilacs for win and Ziggzappa for place suggests potential value in exacta combinations favoring both contenders in reversed positions. Embrace Me’s potential to challenge late cannot be dismissed given recent competitive form.
Race 4 Claiming, 1 3/16 Miles, Tapeta
Win: Shipman (#3) – 40% confidence
Place: Hilarious Affair (#9) – 20% confidence
Show: Shipman (#3) – 20% confidence
Alternative: High Strike (#4) – 20% confidence
Shipman’s only near-miss at Churchill Downs provides the primary justification for consensus win support, though the analysis reveals significant complexity in the race with four different win contenders. The dispersed place and show selections indicate multiple viable paths to the exacta and trifecta, with the key variable being whether Shipman can convert the near-miss into a victory at this distance.
Race 5 Maiden Special Weight, 1 3/16 Miles, Tapeta, $100,000 Purse
Win: Gracie’s Delight (#9) – 57% confidence
Place: Lighten (#10) – 29% confidence
Show: Gracie’s Delight (#9) – 14% confidence
Alternative: Dream Chick (#7) – 29% confidence
Gracie’s Delight demonstrates dominant support among analysts despite starting favorably in this quality maiden event. Lighten’s role as first-time starter with favorable post position and strong Cox trainer statistics for debut runners at extended distance creates place value. Multiple analysts note that maiden special weights at extended distance typically reward experienced runners or those bred for stamina, favoring Gracie’s Delight.
Race 6 Claiming, 1 3/16 Miles, Tapeta
Win: Playing The Angles (#3) / Royal Mende (#2) / Banidoso (#8) / Geraldraydaplegray (#10) / Cue Country Roads (#1) (five-way tie at 20% confidence each)
Place: Royal Mende (#2) – 40% confidence
Show: Geraldraydaplegray (#10) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Royal Mende (#2) – 20% confidence
This race lacks consensus on the win position with five different horses splitting analyst backing equally, suggesting multiple valid angles and potential value in contrarian selections. Royal Mende provides the only meaningful consensus indicator for the place position after finishing second at Hawthorne. The absence of strong agreement on the win indicates that track condition, pace dynamics, and jockey tactics may prove more decisive than pure form evaluation.
Race 7 Maiden Claiming, 1 3/16 Miles, Tapeta
Win: Taqdeer (#5) / Don’t Cross Alexis (#11) / Risky Wave (#7) / Bit Of Frost (#4) / Key Actress (#14) (five-way tie at 20% confidence each)
Place: Don’t Cross Alexis (#11) – 20% confidence
Show: Don’t Cross Alexis (#11) – 40% confidence
Alternative: Risky Wave (#7) – 20% confidence
Like Race 6, this maiden claiming event shows no clear consensus winner, creating opportunity for value plays among overlooked runners. Don’t Cross Alexis provides the strongest consensus anchor for placing finishers with 40% confidence for the show position. Analysts emphasize that first-time starters and horses returning from extended layoffs make this race particularly unpredictable, warranting spread strategy considerations.
Race 8 Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 1/4 Miles, Tapeta, $102,000 Purse
Win: Celtic Charm (#3) – 60% confidence
Place: Five A Side (#9) – 60% confidence
Show: Love Song (#1) – 80% confidence
Alternative: Pookie (#10) – 20% confidence
This race presents the day’s strongest consensus across multiple positions. Celtic Charm’s convincing near-miss at Churchill Downs provides substantial backing from multiple analysts. Five A Side finished third at Churchill Downs and gains overwhelming support for place consideration. Love Song’s 80% confidence for the show position indicates near-universal analyst agreement that the horse will complete the trifecta. The combination suggests either a Celtic Charm victory with Five A Side placing and Love Song showing, or potential upset scenarios where stronger closers gain advantage over extended distance.
Race 9 Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile, Tapeta, $48,000 Purse
Win: Sway House (#7) – 50% confidence
Place: Figurine (#4) – 50% confidence
Show: About And Around (#6) – 33% confidence
Alternative: Figurine (#4) / Unlimited Gold (#12) / Easter Promise (#13) (tied at 17% confidence each)
Sway House and Figurine demonstrate balanced consensus support for win and place positions respectively. Figurine, a debut runner trained by Cox with historically strong statistics for maiden special weight debuts at extended distance, provides solid justification for place consideration despite being a first-time starter. About And Around provides the only meaningful show consensus. Multiple analysts note the significance of first-time starters (Figurine and Florentine Lady) who may surprise against proven performers like Sway House.
Exotic Betting Recommendations and Value Plays
Pick Pony Analysts’ Strategic Approach
Pick Pony analysts identify Race 8 as featuring the strongest consensus across the entire card, with Celtic Charm-Five A Side-Love Song combinations offering potential for solid payouts despite the consensus nature of the selections. The overwhelming 80% confidence for Love Song in the show position warrants serious consideration for superfecta and trifecta base strategies.
The lack of consensus in Races 6 and 7 creates significant value opportunity for contrarian players willing to spread beyond consensus picks. Pick Pony analysts recommend avoiding the temptation to chase favorites in these dispersed races and instead utilizing non-consensus runners in key position plays.
For players building multi-race sequences, utilizing Celtic Charm as a single or tight key in Race 8 (given 60% win consensus) creates an exceptional opportunity to build bankroll through the remaining races. Race 5 presents secondary consensus value with Gracie’s Delight at 57% confidence for the win, justifying key status in late sequence exotic plays.
Pick Pony analysts suggest boxed exacta combinations in Races 1, 3, and 5 where consensus exists on primary contenders but potential for reversals warrants the added cost. In Race 1, combining Red Rose Rockin and What About Now in exacta boxes may capture either order given the 62% and 38% confidence levels respectively.
The Race 8 show consensus (Love Song at 80%) combined with Celtic Charm’s win consensus (60%) suggests strong trifecta foundation potential. Building around these anchors with strategic place options creates attractive payout scenarios given that multiple combinations satisfy the consensus indicators.
For Pick 3 and Pick 4 sequences, analysts recommend single strategies in Race 8 (Celtic Charm) combined with wider coverage in the dispersed Races 6 and 7 to capture the value available from the lack of consensus. The late-day pick sequences offer superior expected value compared to early sequences where less data and consensus exist.
Pick Pony analysts caution that while Race 5 demonstrates strong Gracie’s Delight consensus at 57%, the presence of first-time starters and maiden special weight variables warrant inclusion of multiple alternatives (Dream Chick) in exotic plays to hedge against surprise winners.
