Pick Pony Tip Sheet – Expert picks for Tampa Bay Downs, December 12, 2025. 44% WIN RATE + 1 EXACTA


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Race 1 – Maiden Claiming – 6 Furlongs – 1323 Yards – Dirt – $13,545

Win: 5 Justamomentplease – 60% confidence
Place: 6 Modern Miss – 40% confidence🥈
Show: 8 Marlas Dream – 20% confidence
Alternative: 1 Noble Annie – 40% confidence

Interesting notes: Justamomentplease shows clear support with three analyst backing the selection for the win. This is a competitive maiden field where some running experience and placed form stands out. Modern Miss appears fresher on the race sequence and could secure a place finish. Noble Annie attracts substantial interest as a first-time starter from an established barn.


Race 2 – Allowance Optional Claiming – 7 Furlongs – 1542 Yards – Dirt – $55,500

Win: 6 Lady Frost – 60% confidence
Place: 3 My Cajun Lady – 60% confidence
Show: 4 Deflection – 60% confidence
Alternative: 5 My Little Wildcat – 20% confidence🥈

Interesting notes: This represents one of the most evenly divided races, with three horses receiving identical vote totals across the analyst panel. Lady Frost’s recent maiden-breaking win commands respect despite switching conditions. My Cajun Lady brings solid two-time placing form at the track with multiple attempts. Deflection’s consistency and near-miss finishes make it a dangerous contender. This race may produce strong exacta and trifecta payouts due to the competitive nature.


Race 3 – Claiming – 1 Mile 44 Yards – Dirt – $19,500 WIN ($10.00)

Win: 6 Speedy Hans – 60% confidence🥇
Place: 5 Lucky Curlin – 60% confidence
Show: 1 Street Glide – 40% confidence
Alternative: 9 Whiting Field – 20% confidence

Interesting notes: A highly competitive three-way split for the top spot among analysts between Speedy Hans, Lucky Curlin, and Street Glide. Speedy Hans holds recent form at the track with a last-out win. Lucky Curlin brings proven class and placed form history. Street Glide’s short back-up timeframe after finishing fourth at this track makes it a marginal consideration. Whiting Field’s return from a 12-week layoff after a recent out-of-state win deserves monitoring.


Race 4 – Claiming – 6 Furlongs – 1323 Yards – Dirt – $19,000 WIN ($4.40)

Win: 6 Long Gone Sally – 75% confidence🥇
Place: 1 Lil Temptation – 40% confidence
Show: 7 Heavenly Dancer – 20% confidence🥉
Alternative: 2 Early Delivery – 40% confidence

Interesting notes: Long Gone Sally dominates analyst consensus, receiving support from three separate sources as the top selection. The horse’s recent win at this track combined with non-metro Saturday racing placement provides obvious appeal. Lil Temptation’s long layoff and recent out-of-state win make it a dark horse worth monitoring for exacta consideration. Early Delivery enters from a similar maiden-level background and could pose a threat at longer odds.


Race 5 – Claiming – 1 Mile 110 Yards – Turf – $23,800 WIN

Win: 5 Noble Factor – 60% confidence🥇
Place: 4 Bluff – 40% confidence
Show: 2 Feral’s Joy – 40% confidence
Alternative: 6 Outtawaterbury – 20% confidence🥉

Interesting notes: Noble Factor’s three mentions across analysts outpace the field, highlighted by its near-miss finish at this track last out. Bluff appears in multiple analysts’ place and show positions, suggesting strong closing potential. Feral’s Joy’s four-length defeat at this track leaves room for improvement with proper racing luck. Outtawaterbury’s five-to-one opening odds suggest value if the horse finds the right trip on the turf surface.


Race 6 – Claiming – 7 Furlongs – 1542 Yards – Dirt – $19,000

Win: 2 Fit To Fire – 60% confidence
Place: 4 Paxton – 40% confidence
Show: 1 Profitability – 20% confidence
Alternative: 3 Breath Deeply – 20% confidence🥈

Interesting notes: Fit To Fire receives three analyst mentions, including as a place contender as well, suggesting consistency in handicapping assessment. The horse’s placement as a favorite at this track when returning to racing earns respect. Paxton appears in multiple sources for the win and place with strong recent form. The race shows moderate analyst divergence which typically creates value in exotic wagers. Profitability’s heavy-backed near-miss provides a form line worth monitoring.


Race 7 – Claiming – 1 Mile – Turf – $29,000 WIN + EXACTA

Win: 9 Dynamic Actress – 60% confidence🥇
Place: 5 Tell Me Some Lies – 40% confidence🥈
Show: 10 Timeless Rose – 20% confidence
Alternative: 3 Katies A Lady – 40% confidence

Interesting notes: Dynamic Actress receives three analyst mentions highlighted by its track-specific success and recent layoff period. Tell Me Some Lies shows strong analytical support across multiple sources despite a fourth-place recent result. Katies A Lady’s multiple wins at this venue and improving form trajectory create interesting second-choice appeal. Timeless Rose’s six-length margin at the previous venue requires caution but provides depth options for exotic wagers.


Race 8 – Allowance Optional Claiming – 6 Furlongs – 1323 Yards – Dirt – $56,500

Win: 4 Secret Empire – 60% confidence
Place: 8 Toddchero – 60% confidence
Show: 3 Fluid Situation – 40% confidence
Alternative: 1 Neshume – 40% confidence

Interesting notes: This race presents an unusually competitive three-way consensus at the top with Secret Empire, Toddchero, and Fluid Situation each receiving substantial backing. Secret Empire’s recent track win combined with proven success at the venue creates obvious appeal. Toddchero’s recent out-of-state victory and track-specific history make it equally dangerous. Neshume’s two analytical mentions for the top spot suggest strong early speed potential. Multiple winning candidates suggest strong payouts in win wagering.


Race 9 – Maiden Special Weight – 1 Mile – Turf – $55,000

Win: 4 Protect And Defend – 60% confidence
Place: 7 Brooklyn Styles – 40% confidence🥈
Show: 5 Troubleonthegreen – 40% confidence
Alternative: 2 Cork – 20% confidence

Interesting notes: Protect And Defend emerges from a top barn with maiden special weight eligibility, earning three analyst votes for consideration. Brooklyn Styles’ second-place finish at an eastern venue provides form standout credentials for the money. Troubleonthegreen shows consistent placing form history across multiple attempts this season. This race features minimal data overall, creating typical maiden special weight unpredictability. The analyst panel shows reasonable consensus on the likely contenders despite general maiden uncertainty.


Race 2 Value Play: The three-way consensus split among Lady Frost, My Cajun Lady, and Deflection creates substantial exotic value. An exacta box covering these three selections provides balanced coverage at reasonable cost while maintaining strong payoff potential.

Race 3 Opportunity: Speedy Hans and Lucky Curlin show nearly identical analyst support, suggesting they will likely attract moderate wagering despite genuine competitive merit. The outside closing possibilities make exacta plays with these two horses covering the top two finishing spots particularly attractive.

Race 4 Confidence: Long Gone Sally’s dominant support from Pick Pony analysts justifies straight win wagering. The combination with Lil Temptation for exacta coverage at longer odds presents appealing odds-to-confidence ratio given the analytical consensus.

Race 5 Depth Play: The relatively narrow consensus between top selections creates appealing opportunities in trifecta wagering. Using Noble Factor over Bluff and Feral’s Joy provides balanced coverage with multiple finishing order combinations.

Race 6 Value: Fit To Fire with Paxton for exacta provides solid analytical support while likely receiving moderate public wagering. The second-choice positioning of Paxton makes the reverse combination particularly interesting from a value perspective.

Race 7 Premium: Dynamic Actress combined with Tell Me Some Lies for exacta coverage captures the strongest consensus positions while maintaining reasonable overlay odds given potential public preference divergence.

Race 8 Value Box: The three-way competitive situation among Secret Empire, Toddchero, and Fluid Situation suggests an exacta box provides balanced coverage with multiple payoff scenarios while capturing the strongest analytical opinions.

Race 9 Closing Value: Brooklyn Styles represents an analytical second choice with superior form credentials in maiden company. Exacta combinations using Protect And Defend over Brooklyn Styles capture consensus strength while potentially accessing longer odds on the secondary selection.

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