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Race 1 – Allowance Optional Claiming – 1323Y Dirt
Win: Wave With Envy (50% confidence)
Place: Saul Elliott (75% confidence)
Show: Chase N Ryan (50% confidence)
Alternative: Thirsty Rebel (75% confidence)
Race 2 – Claiming – 1214Y Dirt
Win: Wild Cat Danzing (75% confidence)
Place: Mia Mac (50% confidence)
Show: Angi’s Tipsy (75% confidence)
Alternative: Faithful Truth
Race 3 – Maiden Special Weight – 1433Y Dirt
Win: Toaster (100% confidence)
Place: Wolf Hill (75% confidence)
Show: Sounds Lucky (50% confidence)
Alternative: Velvet Dream (25% confidence)
Race 4 – Claiming – 8F Dirt
Win: Spun Not Stirred (25% confidence)
Place: Spun Not Stirred (50% confidence)
Show: Nobel Gary (50% confidence)
Alternative: McGregor Lake
Race 5 – Claiming – 1214Y Dirt
Win: Shes Just Fluffy (50% confidence)
Place: A Rousing Babe (50% confidence)
Show: Miracle Ball (25% confidence)
Alternative: Rock N Roll Song (25% confidence)
Race 6 – Maiden Claiming – 8F Dirt
Win: Big A’s Little One (50% confidence)
Place: Silver Flirt (50% confidence)
Show: Expressive Love (50% confidence)
Alternative: Eldis (25% confidence)
Race 7 – Maiden Claiming – 1214Y Dirt
Win: Dakota’s Shadow (50% confidence)
Place: Shady Stripes (50% confidence)
Show: Good Golly Dolly (33% confidence)
Alternative: Lil Tessa
Race 8 – Allowance Optional Claiming – 1433Y Dirt
Win: Stop Digging (50% confidence)
Place: Goodnight Nellie (25% confidence)
Show: Buds N Suds (50% confidence)
Alternative: Thirsty Trickster (25% confidence)
Recommended Exotic Plays and Value Angles
Race 1 Pick 3 Opportunity: Begin with Wave With Envy win, connecting forward to Race 2 with Wild Cat Danzing. Thirsty Rebel represents value overlay with strong speed metrics. Consider box including Saul Elliott and Chase N Ryan with single.
Race 2-3 Daily Double: Anchor wild selection Angi’s Tipsy into locks Toaster and Wolf Hill pairing creates strong value play with chalk-heavy board. Maiden Special Weight integrity supports Toaster dominance.
Race 4 Value Play: Even split between four horses at win position suggests significant takeout value. Typhoon Tommy and Spun Not Stirred offer best process with last-out metrics and second-start angles favoring both runners.
Race 5 Exacta Opportunities: Shes Just Fluffy over A Rousing Babe presents prime overlay with three-way tie at win level. Rock N Roll Song underlayered as place horse given consistent recent efforts and favorable pace shape.
Race 6 Stalking Trip Angle: Big A’s Little One class-dropping narrative combined with Silver Flirt consistent placings provides solid exacta base. Eldis represents second-start overlay with improved post draw.
Race 7 Maiden Claiming Sprint: Dakota’s Shadow debut for lucrative barn connection offers system-play angle. Shady Stripes freshening pattern suggests late closing utility in exacta permutations.
Race 8 Late Pick 4 Play: Thirsty Trickster return-from-claim positioning outweighs recent freshening angle. Stop Digging second-surface offering creates intriguing value proposition. Goodnight Nellie afternoon performance edge merits inclusion in multiple-race sequences.
