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The Pick Pony Handicapper’s Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
Today’s program consists primarily of claiming and starter optional claiming races on the main dirt track. Post time for the first race is 12:05 PM. Please note that a detailed, in-depth analysis of individual horse performance and pace matchups is limited without access to official past performance data. The following analysis is based on available public information, expert consensus, and statistical data for the track and its participants. Several horses have been scratched from today’s card, and these changes are reflected in the analysis.
Weather and Track Conditions
The weather forecast for Bensalem, Pennsylvania, calls for a very cold day. Temperatures are expected to have a high of approximately 31°F and a low of around 18°F. Skies will be mostly cloudy. Given the freezing temperatures, the main track surface is expected to be fast and potentially frozen. A frozen track often enhances the speed of the surface, which can further benefit horses with early speed.
Track and Post Position Bias
Parx Racing is widely regarded as a track that favors speed. Horses that demonstrate tactical speed, including front-runners, stalkers, and pressers, tend to perform well. This bias is particularly evident in sprint races at distances of seven furlongs or less. In these shorter races, inside post positions (1-4) have historically shown a distinct advantage, accounting for over 40% of wins.
In route races (one mile or longer), the pronounced speed bias is somewhat diminished, and there is a more even distribution of winners from various post positions. However, on days when the track is wet or sloppy, inside posts can become a disadvantage as the rail may become heavy or boggy. Given today’s cold and dry forecast, the track should play to its typical speed-favoring profile.
Race 1
Post Time: 12:05 PM
This is a claiming race for three-year-olds and upward going 5 1/2 furlongs on the dirt.
Pace Analysis
With a field of sprinters and a track that favors speed, the early pace is expected to be honest. Horses looking to be on or near the lead will likely dictate the race, and the speed-favoring nature of the track at this distance gives them an advantage.
Key Contenders
Handicapper consensus points to Magicnthemoonlight (10) as a primary contender. This horse comes from the barn of trainer Scott Lake, a leading trainer at Parx. The combination of a top trainer and jockey Luis M. Ocasio makes this horse a logical favorite. Warrior Ted (5) also garners significant support and appears to be a strong challenger in this field. The four-year-old gelding is trained by Brandon L. Kulp, who has had success at the meet.
Secondary Choices
Gimmedamoney (3) is considered a contender for a share of the purse. The six-year-old gelding is trained by Jose Armando Rohena and will be ridden by Dexter Haddock, who is among the leading riders at the track.
Selections
Win: Magicnthemoonlight (10)
Place: Warrior Ted (5)
Show: Gimmedamoney (3)
Race 2
Post Time: 12:32 PM
A claiming race for fillies and mares three years old and upward which have never won two races, contested at 6 furlongs.
Pace Analysis
In another sprint race, early speed will be a critical factor. The pace should be competitive, with several runners likely vying for the front-running position, consistent with the track’s general bias.
Key Contenders
Champagne Mischief (1) is the consensus pick in this race. Drawing the inside post is a significant advantage in sprints at Parx. Trained by Daniel Velazquez and ridden by Ruben Silvera, this filly has a strong jockey-trainer combination. She has a record of one win and two place finishes in her last seven starts.
Secondary Choices
Fifty Nine Fifty (11) is another who figures to be in the mix despite the outside post. The filly is trained by Elliott Soto-Martinez, who maintains a solid win percentage at the track. Saint Grace (9), trained by Miguel A. Rodriguez, is also considered a logical contender for a minor award.
Selections
Win: Champagne Mischief (1)
Place: Fifty Nine Fifty (11)
Show: Saint Grace (9)
Race 3
Post Time: 12:59 PM
A starter optional claiming race at 1 mile and 70 yards for three-year-olds and upward.
Pace Analysis
As the distance stretches to a route, the pace may be more measured than in the opening sprints. However, tactical speed remains an asset. A horse that can secure a forward position without expending too much energy early will be in a strong position.
Key Contenders
Encrypt (1) is a strong contender from the inside post, trained by Philip T. Aristone and ridden by top jockey Mychel J. Sanchez. The trainer has a good record, and the presence of Sanchez, a leading rider, adds to the appeal. Malibu Warrior (5) comes into this race with a recent win at a similar distance at Penn National, indicating good form. The horse is trained by Brandon L. Kulp and ridden by Angel R. Rodriguez.
Secondary Choices
Chris’s Revenge (4) is also expected to be competitive. Trained by Ernesto Padilla-Preciado, this three-year-old gelding gets the services of jockey Abner Adorno, another of the track’s leading riders.
Selections
Win: Encrypt (1)
Place: Malibu Warrior (5)
Show: Chris’s Revenge (4)
Race 4
Post Time: 01:26 PM
A 5 1/2 furlong claiming race for fillies and mares.
Pace Analysis
This sprint will likely feature a quick early pace. The advantage goes to those who can either set the pace from an inside draw or sit just off the leaders and make a decisive move on the turn.
Key Contenders
The favorite here is Could Be a Cougar (4), who looks formidable in this spot. Trained by Michael M. Moore, a trainer with a solid win percentage, and ridden by Jorge A. Vargas, Jr., this five-year-old mare is positioned well.
Secondary Choices
Awesome Annmarie (2), an eight-year-old mare from the Miguel A. Rodriguez barn, is another to consider. Her experience could play a role in this claiming event. Et’s Moon Maiden (7), trained by Gustavo Chacon and ridden by leading jockey Mychel J. Sanchez, adds to the competitive nature of the race.
Selections
Win: Could Be a Cougar (4)
Place: Awesome Annmarie (2)
Show: Et’s Moon Maiden (7)
Race 5
Post Time: 01:53 PM
A starter optional claiming race for three-year-olds and upward contested at 6 furlongs. Analysis for this race is limited as consensus picks were not readily available.
Pace Analysis
As with other sprints on the card, a sharp break and early speed will be advantageous. The inside posts will likely have an edge in getting a good position into the turn.
Key Contenders
Based on trainer and jockey statistics, A Votre Sante (9) warrants a look, coming from the Eli Betancourt barn. My Detroit City (5), trained by T. Bernard Houghton and ridden by David Cora, could also be a factor.
Secondary Choices
Depoli (1) from the Joann Bertone barn draws the favorable inside post. Tojo’s Mojo (7) is another to consider, coming from the Hugo O. Padilla stable, which has a good win rate.
Selections
Win: A Votre Sante (9)
Place: My Detroit City (5)
Show: Depoli (1)
Race 6
Post Time: 02:20 PM
A claiming race at 1 mile and 70 yards.
Pace Analysis
In this two-turn event, a more strategic pace is expected. Jockeys will be looking to establish a comfortable rhythm. Horses that have shown the ability to handle the distance and possess tactical speed will be at an advantage.
Key Contenders
Torpedo Run (6) is a primary selection among handicappers. The six-year-old gelding is trained by Michael L. Catalano, Jr. and will be ridden by Julio A. Hernandez.
Secondary Choices
Fluff the Pillow (11), from the high-percentage Hugo O. Padilla stable, is a logical contender despite the outside draw. Shouldhavebeengone (10), trained by Elliott Soto-Martinez, is another horse expected to compete for a placing.
Selections
Win: Torpedo Run (6)
Place: Fluff the Pillow (11)
Show: Shouldhavebeengone (10)
Race 7
Post Time: 02:47 PM
A 6-furlong starter optional claiming race for fillies and mares.
Pace Analysis
Expect a fast pace in this competitive sprint. The speed-favoring track bias will be in full effect, and horses that can gain a forward position early will have a significant advantage.
Key Contenders
Pachelbel (9) is a strong favorite in this race. Trained by Michael M. Moore and ridden by Jorge A. Vargas, Jr., this five-year-old mare has the credentials to win. Unsolved Mystery (2) is another key contender, trained by Eli Betancourt and ridden by Bryan L. Torres.
Secondary Choices
Nail Polish (8), conditioned by Erin C. McClellan, is expected to be in the mix. She carries high weight but has shown ability.
Selections
Win: Pachelbel (9)
Place: Unsolved Mystery (2)
Show: Nail Polish (8)
Race 8
Post Time: 03:14 PM
A claiming race at 1 1/16 miles on the dirt.
Pace Analysis
This route race will test stamina. The pace may not be overly fast, allowing horses to settle into position. A horse with a strong closing kick could be a threat if the front-runners falter.
Key Contenders
The Jamie Ness-trained Uncle Irish (10) stands out as a strong favorite. Ness is the leading trainer at Parx, and with top jockey Mychel J. Sanchez aboard, this combination is formidable.
Secondary Choices
The other Jamie Ness trainee, Amity Road (4), also warrants respect. The presence of two Ness runners suggests a strong hand in this race. Khopesh (7), trained by Melecio Saldana Guerrero, is another to consider for exotic wagers.
Selections
Win: Uncle Irish (10)
Place: Amity Road (4)
Show: Khopesh (7)
Race 9
Post Time: 03:41 PM
An allowance optional claiming race for Pennsylvania-bred fillies and mares at one mile.
Pace Analysis
A compact field of seven will contest this one-mile event. The pace should be honest but is unlikely to be blistering. Tactical speed and positioning will be key.
Key Contenders
Tootaloo Kangaroo (4) is the consensus choice here. Trained by Brandon L. Kulp and ridden by Angel R. Rodriguez, this five-year-old mare has been in good form.
Secondary Choices
Dancing On My Own (7), from the barn of the high-percentage trainer Felissa Dunn, is a serious threat. Dunn’s impressive 41% win rate at the meet makes any of her runners noteworthy. Warrior’s Ransom (5), trained by Kathleen A. Demasi with Silvestre Gonzalez riding, is also expected to be competitive.
Selections
Win: Tootaloo Kangaroo (4)
Place: Dancing On My Own (7)
Show: Warrior’s Ransom (5)
Race 10
Post Time: 04:08 PM
The final race of the day is a 7-furlong claiming race.
Pace Analysis
This 7-furlong distance often plays as an extended sprint. A competitive pace is expected, but the slightly longer distance can give stalkers and closers a better chance to make up ground compared to shorter sprints.
Key Contenders
P J’s Song (11) is a top selection despite the wide draw. The four-year-old gelding is trained by Mario Serey, Jr. Levee Was Dry (10) is another prime contender, coming from the Pompeyo Gomez barn.
Secondary Choices
Celestial Dark (9), trained by Jose G. Gonzalez-Milian and ridden by Abner Adorno, is a logical horse to include in exotic wagers given the strong jockey.
Selections
Win: P J’s Song (11)
Place: Levee Was Dry (10)
Show: Celestial Dark (9)
Jockey and Trainer Notes and Insights
The jockey colony at Parx is led by Mychel J. Sanchez, who is on his way to a third consecutive riding title with over 100 wins at the meet so far. Other top jockeys include Paco Lopez, Dexter Haddock, Eliseo Ruiz, and Abner Adorno, all of whom have more than 30 wins and over $1 million in purse earnings.
On the trainer side, Jamie Ness is the dominant force, well on his way to a sixth straight training title with 65 wins at the meet. He also leads all trainers nationally in wins. Michael Pino has had an outstanding year, winning with an incredible 40% of his starters. Trainer Felissa Dunn is another to watch, with an 11-for-27 record, translating to a 41% win rate. Other trainers with high win percentages include Miguel Rodriguez (27%), John Kirby (26%), and Elliott Soto-Martinez (24%).
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
Given the track bias that strongly favors speed, especially in sprints, focusing on horses with early speed and inside post positions is a primary strategy for today’s card.
Value plays may be found by looking for horses that possess tactical speed but are not the morning-line favorite, especially if they are paired with a high-percentage jockey or trainer. In route races, consider horses trained by Jamie Ness or Felissa Dunn, as their runners consistently perform well. The combination of Ness and jockey Mychel J. Sanchez in Race 8 with Uncle Irish (10) appears to be one of the strongest plays on the card. In Race 9, Dancing On My Own (7) from the barn of Felissa Dunn could offer value against the favorite.
