Pick Pony Tip Sheet – Expert picks for Turf Paradise, December 15, 2025. 38% WIN RATE + 2 EXACTAS + 1 BOXED TRIFECTA


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Pick Pony takes pride in providing the most accurate expert picks available today. Pick Pony Expert Picks are carefully selected by our team of analysts based on analytics from our advanced Past Performance Sheets and Racing Forms. For potential longshot selections, check out Pick Pony’s AI Picks.

Race 1 – Optional Claiming, 72°F, 295Y, Dirt

Win: Say Somthing 90% Confidence🥇
Place: Kj Flashy Girl 75% Confidence🥈
Show: Cm Panama Playboy 70% Confidence
Alternative: Double A Eagle 50% Confidence

Notes: Early speed horses dominate with Say Somthing leading on recent sharp efforts. Cm Panama Playboy is dangerous late, but most Pick Pony analysts agree the top two will control the finish.

Race 2 – Starter Optional Claiming, 72°F, 8F, Turf

Win: Platinum Diva 85% Confidence🥇
Place: Zippin Sevenz 70% Confidence🥈
Show: Scent Of Success 65% Confidence
Alternative: Sunglasses 55% Confidence

Notes: Analysts see a competitive field but expect Platinum Diva to challenge strongly late. Scent Of Success and Zippin Sevenz provide solid alternatives for minor placings.

Race 3 – Starter Allowance, 72°F, 8F, Dirt

Win: Go Cats 95% Confidence
Place: Lemon Meringue 80% Confidence
Show: Right Hand Ryder 75% Confidence🥇
Alternative: Little Trouble 50% Confidence🥈

Notes: Go Cats has the best recent form and will be hard to beat. Lemon Meringue and Right Hand Ryder are proven contenders but may need luck to top the favorite.

Race 4 – Claiming, 72°F, 1214Y, Dirt

Win: Bertacchi 80% Confidence🥈
Place: Money In Motion 70% Confidence
Show: Classic Cinema 65% Confidence🥇
Alternative: Chuck Nazty 55% Confidence

Notes: Bertacchi is the top pick based on strong closing efforts. Money In Motion and Classic Cinema are consistent, while Chuck Nazty offers value at longer odds.

Race 5 – Allowance Optional Claiming, 72°F, 1651Y, Turf

Win: Seahorse Stampede 90% Confidence🥈
Place: Jacked Up 75% Confidence🥉
Show: Baie Longue 65% Confidence🥇
Alternative: Ario 50% Confidence

Notes: Seahorse Stampede is favored for his solid pace and recent performances. Jacked Up and Baie Longue are the main alternatives, but consensus suggests Seahorse Stampede will be hard to pass.

Race 6 – Starter Optional Claiming, 72°F, 1433Y, Dirt

Win: Mandela Effect 85% Confidence
Place: Always On Cay 75% Confidence🥇
Show: Fort Necessity 65% Confidence
Alternative: Rhodium Runner 50% Confidence

Notes: The field is competitive, but Mandela Effect is the consensus top pick. Always On Cay and Fort Necessity are considered the most likely to challenge for minor honors.

Race 7 – Starter Optional Claiming, 72°F, 8F, Turf

Win: She’s So Shiny 85% Confidence
Place: Chamaville 75% Confidence🥈
Show: Vronsky Feint 70% Confidence🥇
Alternative: Fall Moon 55% Confidence🥉

Notes: She’s So Shiny and Chamaville are consensus leaders. Vronsky Feint is dangerous late, and Fall Moon could threaten if the pace collapses.

Race 8 – Claiming, 72°F, 1214Y, Dirt

Win: Mount Asgard 90% Confidence
Place: Xtreme Mayhem 75% Confidence🥇
Show: Saint Pio 70% Confidence🥈
Alternative: Big Don’s Smiling 55% Confidence

Notes: Mount Asgard is the consensus favorite, with Xtreme Mayhem and Saint Pio the main threats. Big Don’s Smiling is a possible surprise at bigger odds.

  • Race 1: Key win 5, use 2, 6, and 1 for exacta/trifecta. Early speed is likely to dominate.
  • Race 2: Use 1, 5, and 4 for exacta/trifecta. Analysts favor a competitive finish with Platinum Diva on top.
  • Race 3: Key win 1, include 3, 2, and 4 in exacta/trifecta. Go Cats is the top pick, but the field is deep.
  • Race 4: Key win 9, use 4, 6, and 2 for exacta/trifecta. Bertacchi is the top choice, but the race is close.
  • Race 5: Key win 4, use 1, 3, and 2 for exacta/trifecta. Seahorse Stampede is favored, but Jacked Up is a strong alternative.
  • Race 6: Key win 3, use 6, 5, and 4 for exacta/trifecta. Mandela Effect is the consensus leader.
  • Race 7: Key win 5, use 10, 9, and 3 for exacta/trifecta. She’s So Shiny and Chamaville are the top choices.
  • Race 8: Key win 2, use 5, 7, and 4 for exacta/trifecta. Mount Asgard is the favorite, with Xtreme Mayhem and Saint Pio the main threats.

Value Play Observations

  • Race 1: 1 Double A Eagle is a live value play at 7/2 and could hit the board if early speed is challenged.
  • Race 2: 2 Sunglasses at 4/1 is a good each-way play if the race pace is honest.
  • Race 4: 2 Chuck Nazty at 6/1 is a strong each-way value if Bertacchi is overbet.
  • Race 5: 3 Baie Longue at 9/2 is a value option if Seahorse Stampede is overbet.
  • Race 7: 3 Fall Moon at 9/2 is a value play if the top picks are short-priced.
  • Race 8: 4 Big Don’s Smiling at 12/1 is a strong value for the show or each-way if the favorites dominate.

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