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Today’s card features a standard nine-race program dominated by claiming events, with a Maiden Special Weight for 2-year-old fillies capping the afternoon in Race 9. The racing office has put together competitive fields, but the conditions will heavily dictate the outcomes. With frigid temperatures and a winterized surface, the track profile is expected to be extremely specific today.
Weather and Track Conditions
Forecast: Winter has firmly arrived in Youngstown. Expect snowy and very cold conditions with a high near 27°F and wind chills dipping into the teens. A Rapid Freeze warning is in effect, meaning temperatures will be dropping throughout the day.
Track Condition: Fast (Sealed).
Surface Analysis: Due to the freezing temperatures and snow, the track maintenance crew will have the surface sealed tight to prevent moisture from penetrating and freezing unevenly. These frozen/sealed strip conditions at Mahoning Valley typically result in a superhighway for speed. The surface will be hard and fast, making it difficult for closers to make up significant ground.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
Bias: Extreme Inside Speed.
On a sealed, frozen track at Mahoning Valley, the rail and early speed are lethal advantages. Horses who can break sharply, secure the rail or the 2-path, and set or press the pace will hold a massive edge.
Post Positions: In 6-furlong sprints, horses drawing posts 1 through 4 win at a disproportionately high rate on days like this. Conversely, closers should be upgraded only if there is a projected pace meltdown, which is unlikely to happen frequently on this surface. In route races, such as Race 2, the bias is slightly less pronounced but still favors horses who can save ground into the first turn.
Race 1
Post Time
12:15 PM ET
Pace Analysis
The pace scenario here favors the inside runners. Improbable First breaks from the rail and possesses the natural speed to dictate terms. Finistere and Pace have enough tactical foot to press, but the rail horse has the shortest path to the front on this bias-heavy track.
Key Contenders
Improbable First (2-1) is the clear horse to beat. Draws the coveted rail on a speed-favoring track and gets leading rider Luis Rivera. His recent form fits perfectly at this N4L level, and trainer Michael Rone places his horses aggressively. If he breaks clean, he may never be headed.
Finistere (7-2) is a logical alternative for the exotics. He has been consistent and fits class-wise. He will likely sit just off the flank of the favorite. If the rail horse falters, he gets the first jump.
Secondary Choices
Gamboling Ghost (5-1) comes from the dangerous Jason DaCosta barn, but the outside post 7 is a significant hurdle on this surface. He will need to use hard energy early to clear the field or risk getting hung wide on the turn.
Betting Strategy
Win: #1 Improbable First.
Exacta: 1 over 4, 7.
Selections
Win: Improbable First
Place: Finistere
Show: Gamboling Ghost
Race 2
Post Time
12:43 PM ET
Pace Analysis
In this two-turn event, Starofthegame and American Silver are the primary pace players. The inside post for American Silver is a huge advantage going into the first turn, allowing him to save ground while others work harder.
Key Contenders
Starofthegame (2-1) represents the potent Radosevich and Aviles combination. This 3-year-old has shown flashes of ability that tower over this weak N2L field. His tactical speed allows him to overcome the post, and he drops into a spot where he should be much the best.
American Silver (4-1) offers appeal primarily due to the rail draw. At this bottom level, a ground-saving trip often makes the difference between a check and a win. He doesn’t need to be brilliant, just efficient.
Secondary Choices
Daytona Gold (5-1) comes from Nestor Rivera’s barn, which has been heating up. This gelding has enough early foot to stay involved and could pick up the pieces if the top two duel too hard.
Betting Strategy
Win: #7 Starofthegame.
Trifecta: 7 over 1, 3, 6.
Selections
Win: Starofthegame
Place: American Silver
Show: Daytona Gold
Race 3
Post Time
1:11 PM ET
Pace Analysis
A competitive sprint for mares. Photo Finish and Comida Comida should hook up early. The presence of Miss Fussy Pants ensures a brisk pace, potentially setting it up for a stalker, though the track bias may still carry the speed.
Key Contenders
Photo Finish (5-2) is placed well by trainer Jay Bernardini. She has the class to handle this group and gets Luis Batista, who rides this oval very well. She should sit the perfect trip just off the rail speed.
Miss Fussy Pants (3-1) is another dangerous Rivera runner. She has plenty of early zip and draws well in post 2. If she clears the inside horse early, she becomes the one to catch.
Longshots
Hartful Hope (8-1) is a value play underneath. She may find the pace a bit hot but has the grinding style to clunk up for a share at a price.
Betting Strategy
Exacta Box: 2, 3.
Key: #3 Photo Finish.
Selections
Win: Photo Finish
Place: Miss Fussy Pants
Show: Comida Comida
Race 4
Post Time
1:39 PM ET
Pace Analysis
Maiden claimers going 5.5 furlongs often result in a chaotic scramble. Fromthewonderland has flashed speed and should be sent hard. Midnight Glimmer draws inside and will be forced to go.
Key Contenders
Fromthewonderland (5-2) is the speed of the speed. In a race lacking depth, her ability to get to the front is the decisive factor. Angel Diaz is an aggressive gate rider who suits this horse perfectly.
Midnight Glimmer (3-1) is the main danger. She has been knocking on the door and gets a positive rider switch. The shorter 5.5f distance should help her stamina hold up late.
Secondary Choices
Dame’s Rocket (4-1) gets Deshawn Parker in the irons, which is always a signal of intent. She fits on figures but needs to show she can handle the dirt kickback if she doesn’t make the lead.
Betting Strategy
Win: #4 Fromthewonderland.
Double: 4 / 2 (Race 4/5).
Selections
Win: Fromthewonderland
Place: Midnight Glimmer
Show: Dame’s Rocket
Race 5
Post Time
2:07 PM ET
Pace Analysis
This is a bottom-level event for older horses. David’s Gem and Hagler are the class of the speed. Making Me Crazy will look to stalk.
Key Contenders
David’s Gem (5-2) is a hard-knocking veteran who narrowly missed last time out. He has back class that exceeds this field and finds a very soft spot. If he runs back to his last effort, he wins.
Making Me Crazy (3-1) finished a close second in a similar race recently. He is in good form, which counts for a lot at the $4,000 level in December. The inside draw allows him to work out a trip.
Longshots
Cryo (6-1) is capable of waking up at a price. He has been inconsistent but has races in his past performances that would crush this field.
Betting Strategy
Win: #3 David’s Gem.
Exacta: 3 over 2, 5.
Selections
Win: David’s Gem
Place: Making Me Crazy
Show: Cryo
Race 6
Post Time
2:35 PM ET
Pace Analysis
Liberate is a class standout here. He has speed but doesn’t need the lead. Little Toy Guns will likely send from the inside to protect position.
Key Contenders
Liberate (9-5) is the class of the field. A multiple winner who faces restricted Ohio-bred company today. Trainer Tim Hamm is excellent with this type of runner. He should sit a perfect stalking trip and pounce on the turn.
Color Bearer (4-1) draws the rail and will be forced to use his speed. If he can shake loose, the bias makes him a threat to wire the field, though Liberate is a heavy object to hold off.
Secondary Choices
Henry Mac (5-1) is a consistent check-earner for the Radosevich barn. Unlikely to win but a must-use in vertical wagers like trifectas and superfectas.
Betting Strategy
Win: #3 Liberate.
Cold Exacta: 3 over 1.
Selections
Win: Liberate
Place: Color Bearer
Show: Henry Mac
Race 7
Post Time
3:03 PM ET
Pace Analysis
Bureau is coming off an impressive win and draws the rail. This is the race’s defining factor. Pay Zone has tremendous speed as well, setting up a potential duel, but the rail bias favors Bureau.
Key Contenders
Bureau (5-2) won impressively in his last start and looks poised to repeat. The step up in class is neutralized by his current form and the lethal rail draw. Rocco Bowen stays aboard.
Pay Zone (3-1) is the main rival. He is consistent and fast. If he can clear Bureau early, he can win, but if he gets hung wide dueling the rail horse, he is vulnerable.
Longshots
Ismybusiness (8-1) is the beneficiary if the top two destruct. He will be running late and could pick up the pieces for a big share.
Betting Strategy
Win: #1 Bureau.
Trifecta Key: 1 over 3, 5, 6.
Selections
Win: Bureau
Place: Pay Zone
Show: Ismybusiness
Race 8
Post Time
3:31 PM ET
Pace Analysis
Trainer Anthony Farrior holds a massive hand here with Bright Charger and Beechmont. Both possess speed and draw inside. They could essentially control the race from the break.
Key Contenders
Bright Charger (5-2) combines Farrior, Rivera, and the rail for maximum win probability. This horse fits the conditions perfectly and the connections are hitting at a high percentage.
Beechmont (3-1) is the other Farrior entrant. Also dangerous, but the jockey allocation suggests the #1 might be the intended winner. Still, he is a must-use in defensive wagers.
Secondary Choices
Betta Go Go Go (6-1) comes from the Jay Bernardini barn and is capable of upsetting the Farrior applecart. This gelding has enough back class to compete if the favorites regress.
Betting Strategy
Win: #1 Bright Charger.
Exacta: 1 / 2 (Farrior Exacta).
Selections
Win: Bright Charger
Place: Beechmont
Show: Betta Go Go Go
Race 9
Post Time
3:59 PM ET
Pace Analysis
Holiday Betty draws the rail in a field of young, inexperienced fillies. In these types of races, the rail horse with any speed often runs away from the field.
Key Contenders
Holiday Betty (8-5) is the Best Bet of the day. Trainer Susan Anderson specializes in Ohio-breds, and this filly has shown talent in morning drills and prior starts. She should control this race from the break.
Team Chiquita (4-1) shows blinkers ON, which often wakes up a young horse. Solid alternative if the favorite fails to fire.
Longshots
Jac’s Cocoabella (10-1) is a first-time starter for Ivan Vazquez. Keep an eye on the tote board; if she takes money, respect the connections.
Betting Strategy
Win: #1 Holiday Betty.
Trifecta: 1 over 2, 3, 4.
Selections
Win: Holiday Betty
Place: Team Chiquita
Show: Jac’s Cocoabella
Jockey Notes and Insights
Luis Rivera is the dominant rider on the card today. He has live mounts in almost every race, including Improbable First, Miss Fussy Pants, Lust for Life, Pay Zone, and Bright Charger. On a speed-favoring track, his aggressive gate riding is an invaluable asset.
Mauro Cedillo is riding in excellent form. Watch him on Mo Co Gold in Race 3 and More Love in Race 7. He is particularly good at judging pace when sitting just off the lead.
Yan Aviles is a solid bug rider, or recent bug, who teams up well with the Radosevich barn, specifically on Starofthegame in Race 2. He offers value as he often gets overlooked compared to Rivera or Batista.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Anthony Farrior is a trainer to respect. When he ships in or enters horses at Mahoning, they are meant to win. His entry in Race 8 with Bright Charger and Beechmont looks formidable. He places horses where they can win immediately.
Jeffrey Radosevich is often called the King of Mahoning. He has multiple live runners today. In the winter months, his horses tend to thrive on the sealed surface.
Susan Anderson is deadly with 2-year-old Ohio-breds. Her entry in Race 9, Holiday Betty, is the most likely winner on the card.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The Inside Speed Angle is the most profitable approach today. In the sprints, which include Races 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9, betting the speed horse in Posts 1 or 2 is a strong long-term angle on a frozen Mahoning strip.
For a Bankroll Builder, look to Race 9 and #1 Holiday Betty. The setup is perfect with the rail draw, superior trainer stats with 2-year-olds, and a field that lacks depth.
The Best Value Play is in Race 2 with #7 Starofthegame. He might drift up to 3-1 or 4-1 if money goes to the rail horse, but he is the superior animal.
A recommended Late Daily Double is Race 8 #1 into Race 9 #1, capitalizing on the Rail/Speed bias in both legs.
