Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
⚠ Concerns:(1) Rising in class today ($5,000 → $12,500). (2) 0 wins from 4 career starts on off tracks. (3) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 5 starts). (4) Trip note from last race: Swung 3-4w 1/4;no bid. (5) No workout in last 30 days despite 20 days since last race. (6) Rising in class ($5,000 → $12,500) after finishing 8 last out — double negative. (7) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 9.0 pts: [53, 65, 41, 56, 48]) — unpredictable performer.
LGBM: 12 (9/10) CatBoost: 15 (7/10) XGB: 17 (8/10) LGBM-LS: 69 (8/10) CatBoost-LS: 15 (7/10) XGB-LS: 38 (4/10) Win Prob: 18.8% Value Score: 3.74 ★ ML: 12.00 (11/1) Overlay %: 2.80 Fair Odds: 11.75 (11/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | F |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | F | D |
| Late Pace | B | C |
| Finish Pos | A | D |
| Dirt Speed | D | C |
| Turf Speed | A | B |
| Distance Speed | D | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | D | C |
| Mid Pace | F | D |
| Late Pace | B | C |
| Sprint FPS | C | C |
| Route FPS | D | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | F | C |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Strong speed 2 back (69), modest dip last out (59) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (2) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (3) Has won at OP on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (4) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 5/10 — angles: Won Here Before, Form Reversal, Won at This Distance.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Repeatedly beaten at this class level (3 of last 5 starts). (2) Tends to fade in the stretch at similar distances (6 of 10 starts). (3) Trip note from last race: Wellback4p; no threat. (4) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 15.3 pts: [59, 69, 70, 36, 43]) — unpredictable performer.
LGBM: 34 (4/10) CatBoost: 36 (4/10) XGB: 21 (6/10) LGBM-LS: 92 (3/10) CatBoost-LS: 32 (4/10) XGB-LS: 15 (9/10) Win Prob: 27.4% Value Score: 4.6 ★ ML: 10.00 (9/1) Overlay %: 3.14 Fair Odds: 9.99 (9/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Finish Pos | D | F |
| Dirt Speed | C | C |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | C | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | B | C |
| Sprint FPS | B | C |
| Route FPS | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | C | B |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 33-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (39%). (3) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 73 vs field 67). (4) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (5) Fourth race back from a 50-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (6) Strong speed 2 back (68), modest dip last out (62) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (7) Dropping in class ($12,500 vs last $16,000) after a 33-day freshening — trainer setup-for-win angle. (8) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Class Drop After Rest, Hot Jockey, Closer in Pace Duel, Form Reversal, Late Kick Advantage, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 33 days. (2) 0 wins from 4 career starts on off tracks. (3) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 10 recent starts). (4) Trip note from last race: Chased ins; no threat. (5) Has not won in last 10 starts despite career wins. (6) 0 wins from 10 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
LGBM: 31 (6/10) CatBoost: 31 (5/10) XGB: 28 (4/10) LGBM-LS: 83 (4/10) CatBoost-LS: 29 (5/10) XGB-LS: 16 (8/10) Win Prob: 20.7% Value Score: 3.48 ★ ML: 10.00 (9/1) Overlay %: 3.58 Fair Odds: 9.48 (8/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | D | C |
| Mid Pace | D | C |
| Late Pace | A | C |
| Finish Pos | D | F |
| Dirt Speed | B | B |
| Turf Speed | B | C |
| Distance Speed | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | D | C |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | A | C |
| Sprint FPS | D | C |
| Route FPS | D | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | D | C |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Equipment change today (code: 2). (2) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (3) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 4/10 — angles: Won at This Distance, Equipment Change.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 10 starts). (3) Trip note from last race: Midpack 3p; weakened. (4) No workout in last 30 days despite 21 days since last race. (5) 0 wins from 9 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
LGBM: 17 (8/10) CatBoost: 10 (9/10) XGB: 19 (7/10) LGBM-LS: 77 (6/10) CatBoost-LS: 8 (9/10) XGB-LS: 29 (6/10) Win Prob: 23.5% Value Score: 7.54 ★ ML: 20.00 (20/1) Overlay %: 5.16 Fair Odds: 11.07 (10/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | F |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | C | B |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Finish Pos | F | F |
| Dirt Speed | D | C |
| Turf Speed | A | B |
| Distance Speed | D | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | F | D |
| Sprint FPS | A | A |
| Route FPS | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | B | A |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($20,000 → $12,500). (2) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (3) Has won at OP on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (4) Carries 7 lbs less than field median (114 lbs vs median 121 lbs). (5) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'L', 'T']) yet still finished 1st — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Won Here Before, Class Drop, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won at This Distance, Weight Advantage.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Speed average (55) well below field median (62). (3) Limited experience at today's distance (2 starts). (4) Unproven on dirt surface (2 starts). (5) Trip note from last race: 2-3p;bid btwn1/4;clear. (6) Last race was career-best speed (71) — bounce risk after peak effort. (7) No workout in last 30 days despite 19 days since last race.
LGBM: 5 (10/10) CatBoost: 8 (10/10) XGB: 0 LGBM-LS: 82 (5/10) CatBoost-LS: 6 (10/10) XGB-LS: 55 (2/10) Win Prob: 24.2% Value Score: 7.74 ★ ML: 20.00 (20/1) Overlay %: 4.08 Fair Odds: 12.90 (12/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | F | F |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | F | D |
| Finish Pos | B | D |
| Dirt Speed | D | C |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | F | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | B | A |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Sprint FPS | B | B |
| Route FPS | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | F | F |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Speed average (69) well above field median (62). (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (49%). (3) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 2 wins from 5 starts (40%). (4) Equipment change today (code: 1). (5) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (45%). (6) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 76 vs field 67). (7) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (8) Strong speed 2 back (70), modest dip last out (65) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (9) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (10) Dropping in class ($12,500 vs last $16,000) after a 33-day freshening — trainer setup-for-win angle. (11) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Class Drop After Rest, Hot Trainer, Hot Jockey, Closer in Pace Duel, Form Reversal, Won at This Distance, Late Kick Advantage, Equipment Change.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 33 days. (2) Was claimed from its most recent race - new connections. (3) 0 wins from 5 career starts on off tracks. (4) Trip note from last race: Off pace 2p; no close. (5) Consistently runs wide at the first call (3 of last 5 starts). (6) No workout in last 30 days despite 33 days since last race.
LGBM: 80 (2/10) CatBoost: 77 (2/10) XGB: 69 (2/10) LGBM-LS: 75 (7/10) CatBoost-LS: 73 (2/10) XGB-LS: 29 (5/10) Win Prob: 71.3% Value Score: 3.26 ★ ML: 2.00 (9/5) Overlay %: -11.24 Fair Odds: 8.42 (7/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | D | C |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Finish Pos | A | C |
| Dirt Speed | C | C |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | B | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | D | C |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Sprint FPS | F | D |
| Route FPS | F | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | D | C |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 97-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Dropping in class today ($50,000 → $12,500). (3) Speed average (68) well above field median (62). (4) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (43%). (5) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (43%). (6) 3 workouts in last 30 days — horse appears sharp and fit. (7) Has a bullet work (fastest at track that day) — sharp conditioning signal. (8) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 72 vs field 67). (9) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (10) Strong speed 2 back (70), modest dip last out (64) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (11) One gate workout in recent training — sharpness signal from the gate. (12) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (13) Dropping in class ($12,500 vs last $50,000) after a 97-day freshening — trainer setup-for-win angle. (14) Returning from 97-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot. (15) Carries 5 lbs less than field median (116 lbs vs median 121 lbs). (16) Trainer 'ASMUSSEN STEVEN M' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (17) Career-best figure (80) buried in races 4–10 back — 18 pts above race median and 10 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (18) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Class Drop After Rest, Sharp Return Workout, Hot Jockey, Closer in Pace Duel, Hidden Figure, Late Kick Advantage, Class Drop, Hot Trainer, Bullet Workout, Form Reversal, Won at This Distance, Stable on Fire, Sharp Workout Pattern, Weight Advantage, Sharp Gate Work.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 97 days. (2) Trip note from last race: Passed tiring foes. (3) Post 7 in a 11-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path.
LGBM: 69 (3/10) CatBoost: 57 (3/10) XGB: 57 (3/10) LGBM-LS: 0 CatBoost-LS: 55 (3/10) XGB-LS: 42 (3/10) Win Prob: 49.9% Value Score: 4.19 ★ ML: 4.50 (7/2) Overlay %: -1.28 Fair Odds: 8.40 (7/1) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | C | B |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | A | C |
| Finish Pos | A | C |
| Dirt Speed | A | B |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | C | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | C | B |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | A | C |
| Sprint FPS | D | C |
| Route FPS | C | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | C |
| Early Pace | C | B |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Finish positions improving over last 4 starts. (2) Big last-race effort (66) — 11 pts above recent average. (3) Fourth race back from a 50-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (4) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (5) Speed improved +6 pts then +7 pts in last 2 starts (53 → 59 → 66) — trainer is progressively building fitness. (6) Last race E1 pace (95.0) was 5.3 pts above personal avg (89.7) and horse still finished 4th — pace collapse victim; expect bounce if today's fractions are softer. (7) Career-best figure (81) buried in races 4–10 back — 19 pts above race median and 15 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (8) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'F', 'L', 'S', 'T', 'V']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Form Surge, Pace Collapse Victim, Troubled Trip Comeback, Improving Finisher, Won at This Distance, Hidden Figure, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Trip note from last race: Vied3-5p;flattened str. (3) Outside post (8) in a large field of 11 horses. (4) No workout in last 30 days despite 21 days since last race. (5) Post 8 in a 11-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path. (6) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 11.7 pts: [66, 59, 53, 53, 81]) — unpredictable performer.
LGBM: 32 (5/10) CatBoost: 27 (6/10) XGB: 27 (5/10) LGBM-LS: 100 (1/10) CatBoost-LS: 29 (6/10) XGB-LS: 100 (1/10) Win Prob: 36.7% Value Score: 8.96 ★ ML: 15.00 (14/1) Overlay %: 5.40 Fair Odds: 9.53 (9/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Finish Pos | F | F |
| Dirt Speed | A | B |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Sprint FPS | A | A |
| Route FPS | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($20,000 → $12,500). (2) Has a bullet work (fastest at track that day) — sharp conditioning signal. (3) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (4) Carries 12 lbs less than field median (109 lbs vs median 121 lbs). (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Class Drop, Closer in Pace Duel, Bullet Workout, Weight Advantage.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Speed average (56) well below field median (62). (2) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 4 recent starts). (3) Trip note from last race: Bump st; 4p; no threat. (4) Outside post (9) in a large field of 11 horses. (5) Dropping in class in consecutive starts ($75,000 → $25,000 → $20,000). (6) Post 9 in a 11-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path. (7) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 8.7 pts: [48, 49, 57, 68, 63]) — unpredictable performer. (8) 0 wins from 9 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface. (9) Both speed figures (57→49→48) AND claiming price ($75,000→$25,000→$20,000) have declined in each of last 3 starts.
LGBM: 0 CatBoost: 0 XGB: 0 (10/10) LGBM-LS: 34 (10/10) CatBoost-LS: 0 XGB-LS: 24 (7/10) Win Prob: 9.9% Value Score: 2.41 ★ ML: 15.00 (14/1) Overlay %: 3.48 Fair Odds: 12.19 (11/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | F |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | F | D |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Finish Pos | C | D |
| Dirt Speed | C | C |
| Turf Speed | A | C |
| Distance Speed | B | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | F | D |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Sprint FPS | F | D |
| Route FPS | F | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | D |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | F | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (38%). (2) Career-best speed figure (65) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (3) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (4) Last race E1 pace (95.0) was 7.9 pts above personal avg (87.1) and horse still finished 11th — pace collapse victim; expect bounce if today's fractions are softer. (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Pace Collapse Victim, Hot Trainer, Won at This Distance.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Speed average (47) well below field median (62). (3) 0 wins from 4 career starts on off tracks. (4) Tends to fade in the stretch at similar distances (7 of 10 starts). (5) Trip note from last race: Press 4p; back up turn. (6) Outside post (10) in a large field of 11 horses. (7) Post 10 in a 11-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path. (8) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 19.9 pts: [19, 66, 65, 63, 58]) — unpredictable performer.
LGBM: 21 (7/10) CatBoost: 12 (8/10) XGB: 4 (9/10) LGBM-LS: 57 (9/10) CatBoost-LS: 14 (8/10) XGB-LS: 14 (10/10) Win Prob: 23.9% Value Score: 4.73 ★ ML: 12.00 (11/1) Overlay %: 3.24 Fair Odds: 11.07 (10/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | F | F |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | D | C |
| Late Pace | F | D |
| Finish Pos | C | F |
| Dirt Speed | F | C |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | D | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | D | C |
| Late Pace | F | D |
| Sprint FPS | A | A |
| Route FPS | C | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | D | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Speed average (73) well above field median (62). (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (49%). (3) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 2 wins from 5 starts (40%). (4) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (40%). (5) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (6) Fourth race back from a 72-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (7) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (8) Career-best figure (90) buried in races 4–10 back — 28 pts above race median and 13 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Hot Trainer, Hot Jockey, Closer in Pace Duel, Won at This Distance, Hidden Figure, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Moving from a route to a sprint today. (2) Trip note from last race: Chased 4path; gave way. (3) Outside post (11) in a large field of 11 horses. (4) Post 11 in a 11-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path. (5) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 13.7 pts: [55, 63, 77, 65, 90]) — unpredictable performer.
LGBM: 100 (1/10) CatBoost: 100 (1/10) XGB: 100 (1/10) LGBM-LS: 99 (2/10) CatBoost-LS: 100 (1/10) XGB-LS: 0 Win Prob: 82.4% Value Score: 2.76 ★ ML: 1.20 (10/11) Overlay %: -18.38 Fair Odds: 7.76 (7/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | B | C |
| Finish Pos | B | D |
| Dirt Speed | A | A |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | D |
| Early Pace | C | B |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Sprint FPS | C | C |
| Route FPS | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | B | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 34-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 2 wins from 5 starts (40%). (3) Career-best speed figure (66) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (4) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Career-Best Recent Figure, Closer in Pace Duel.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 34 days. (2) Speed average (66) well below field median (73). (3) Limited experience at today's distance (1 start). (4) Unproven on dirt surface (1 start). (5) Trip note from last race: Bump st;btwn4-5p;wknd.
LGBM: 48 (5/8) CatBoost: 22 (7/8) XGB: 29 (6/8) LGBM-LS: 0 CatBoost-LS: 20 (7/8) XGB-LS: 72 (3/8) Win Prob: 51.9% Value Score: 10.96 ★ ML: 15.00 (14/1) Overlay %: 5.49 Fair Odds: 8.78 (8/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | D | C |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Finish Pos | D | D |
| Dirt Speed | D | C |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | C | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | C |
| Early Pace | B | A |
| Mid Pace | B | A |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Sprint FPS | C | B |
| Route FPS | C | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | D | F |
| Mid Pace | D | F |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 151-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (44%). (3) Equipment change today (code: 1). (4) 3 workouts in last 30 days — horse appears sharp and fit. (5) Has a bullet work (fastest at track that day) — sharp conditioning signal. (6) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 80 vs field 70). (7) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (8) Consistent workout spacing (7, 7 days) — disciplined training regimen. (9) Returning from 151-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot. (10) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'F', 'L', 'O', 'T']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (11) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Sharp Return Workout, Late Kick Advantage, Hot Trainer, Troubled Trip Comeback, Closer in Pace Duel, Bullet Workout, Sharp Workout Pattern, Equipment Change.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 151 days. (2) Tends to fade in the stretch at similar distances (2 of 3 starts). (3) Trip note from last race: Float;3wbtw;bid;nomtch. (4) Was the betting favorite in the last race but finished off the board. (5) First start at OP — never raced here before (last seen at: CD, FG).
LGBM: 89 (3/8) CatBoost: 88 (3/8) XGB: 88 (3/8) LGBM-LS: 37 (3/8) CatBoost-LS: 90 (2/8) XGB-LS: 85 (2/8) Win Prob: 63.6% Value Score: 2.52 ★ ML: 2.00 (9/5) Overlay %: -12.24 Fair Odds: 6.69 (6/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | C | A |
| Mid Pace | D | A |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Finish Pos | B | C |
| Dirt Speed | A | A |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | C | A |
| Mid Pace | D | A |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Sprint FPS | C | B |
| Route FPS | C | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | B |
| Early Pace | B | A |
| Mid Pace | C | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Career-best speed figure (68) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (2) Fourth race back from a 49-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (3) Trainer 'VON HEMEL DONNIE K' has 3 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (4) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'F', 'L']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Troubled Trip Comeback, Stable on Fire, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 32 days. (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 4 recent starts). (4) Tends to fade in the stretch at similar distances (3 of 4 starts). (5) Trip note from last race: Bid3p5/16;faded fnl1/8.
LGBM: 28 (7/8) CatBoost: 34 (6/8) XGB: 15 (8/8) LGBM-LS: 10 (8/8) CatBoost-LS: 35 (6/8) XGB-LS: 62 (4/8) Win Prob: 35.5% Value Score: 7.49 ★ ML: 15.00 (14/1) Overlay %: 4.87 Fair Odds: 9.41 (8/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | C | C |
| Early Pace | B | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Finish Pos | C | D |
| Dirt Speed | C | C |
| Turf Speed | A | B |
| Distance Speed | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | C |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Sprint FPS | B | A |
| Route FPS | B | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | C |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 54-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (46%). (3) Career-best speed figure (84) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (4) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (44%). (5) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 77 vs field 70). (6) Switching turf-to-dirt with a strong turf pedigree rating (110) — pedigree suggests main-track improvement is likely. (7) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Late Kick Advantage, Hot Trainer, Hot Jockey, Pedigree-Backed Switch.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 54 days. (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Limited experience at today's distance (2 starts). (4) Unproven on dirt surface (1 start). (5) Switching from turf to dirt today. (6) Trip note from last race: 3wd;bit tight into str.
LGBM: 94 (2/8) CatBoost: 95 (2/8) XGB: 89 (2/8) LGBM-LS: 35 (4/8) CatBoost-LS: 88 (3/8) XGB-LS: 23 (6/8) Win Prob: 60% Value Score: 3.17 ★ ML: 3.00 (5/2) Overlay %: -5.48 Fair Odds: 6.44 (11/2) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | D | A |
| Mid Pace | C | A |
| Late Pace | B | B |
| Finish Pos | D | D |
| Dirt Speed | A | B |
| Turf Speed | B | B |
| Distance Speed | F | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | B |
| Early Pace | D | B |
| Mid Pace | C | A |
| Late Pace | B | B |
| Sprint FPS | D | C |
| Route FPS | D | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | C | A |
| Mid Pace | B | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 52-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (43%). (3) Career-best speed figure (61) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (4) Trainer 'ASMUSSEN STEVEN M' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Hot Trainer, Stable on Fire.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 52 days. (2) Speed average (55) well below field median (73). (3) Trip note from last race: Rated 3-2p;backup turn.
LGBM: 5 (8/8) CatBoost: 11 (8/8) XGB: 24 (7/8) LGBM-LS: 14 (7/8) CatBoost-LS: 3 (8/8) XGB-LS: 22 (7/8) Win Prob: 17.8% Value Score: 4.94 ★ ML: 20.00 (20/1) Overlay %: 5.86 Fair Odds: 9.57 (9/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | D | A |
| Mid Pace | D | A |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Finish Pos | F | F |
| Dirt Speed | D | D |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | D | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | D | A |
| Mid Pace | D | B |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Sprint FPS | D | B |
| Route FPS | D | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | C | A |
| Mid Pace | B | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Career-best speed figure (70) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (2) Equipment change today (code: 1). (3) Has a bullet work (fastest at track that day) — sharp conditioning signal. (4) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 5/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Bullet Workout, Equipment Change.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Limited experience at today's distance (2 starts). (3) Unproven on dirt surface (2 starts). (4) Trip note from last race: Weakened inside.
LGBM: 43 (6/8) CatBoost: 36 (5/8) XGB: 54 (4/8) LGBM-LS: 34 (5/8) CatBoost-LS: 38 (5/8) XGB-LS: 3 (8/8) Win Prob: 38.7% Value Score: 5.62 ★ ML: 10.00 (9/1) Overlay %: 4.39 Fair Odds: 7.87 (7/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | C | C |
| Early Pace | B | A |
| Mid Pace | B | A |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Finish Pos | D | F |
| Dirt Speed | C | C |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | C |
| Early Pace | B | A |
| Mid Pace | B | A |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Sprint FPS | B | A |
| Route FPS | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | B | A |
| Mid Pace | B | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (43%). (2) Career-best speed figure (83) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (43%). (4) Strong speed 2 back (83), modest dip last out (78) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (5) Returning from 34-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot. (6) Trainer 'ASMUSSEN STEVEN M' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (7) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'F', 'L', 'O', 'S', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (8) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Sharp Return Workout, Hot Trainer, Hot Jockey, Troubled Trip Comeback, Form Reversal, Stable on Fire.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 34 days. (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 9 recent starts). (4) Tends to fade in the stretch at similar distances (6 of 9 starts). (5) Trip note from last race: 2p;roused3/16;flatten. (6) No workout in last 30 days despite 34 days since last race. (7) Post 7 in a 9-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path. (8) 0 wins from 8 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
LGBM: 100 (1/8) CatBoost: 100 (1/8) XGB: 100 (1/8) LGBM-LS: 52 (2/8) CatBoost-LS: 100 (1/8) XGB-LS: 42 (5/8) Win Prob: 75.7% Value Score: 3.5 ★ ML: 2.50 (9/5) Overlay %: -8.13 Fair Odds: 6.41 (11/2) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | B |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | B | A |
| Late Pace | B | C |
| Finish Pos | B | C |
| Dirt Speed | B | B |
| Turf Speed | A | B |
| Distance Speed | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | B | C |
| Sprint FPS | A | A |
| Route FPS | B | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | B |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
✓ Positives:(1) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (42%). (2) 3 workouts in last 30 days — horse appears sharp and fit. (3) Has a bullet work (fastest at track that day) — sharp conditioning signal. (4) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (5) Consistent workout spacing (7, 7 days) — disciplined training regimen. (6) One gate workout in recent training — sharpness signal from the gate. (7) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Hot Jockey, Closer in Pace Duel, Bullet Workout, Sharp Workout Pattern, Sharp Gate Work.
⚠ Concerns:(1) First-time starter - no previous race record. (2) First time at today's distance. (3) Has never raced on dirt surface. (4) Post 8 in a 9-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path.
LGBM: 0 CatBoost: 0 XGB: 0 LGBM-LS: 18 (6/8) CatBoost-LS: 0 XGB-LS: 0 Win Prob: 21.3% Value Score: 3.66 ★ ML: 12.00 (11/1) Overlay %: 2.22 Fair Odds: 11.43 (10/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | F | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | F | F |
| Mid Pace | F | F |
| Late Pace | F | F |
| Finish Pos | A | A |
| Dirt Speed | F | F |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | F | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | F |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | F | F |
| Mid Pace | F | F |
| Late Pace | F | F |
| Sprint FPS | F | F |
| Route FPS | F | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | F |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | D | F |
| Mid Pace | D | F |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 48-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Career-best speed figure (77) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (3) 3 workouts in last 30 days — horse appears sharp and fit. (4) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 78 vs field 70). (5) Consistent workout spacing (7, 7 days) — disciplined training regimen. (6) One gate workout in recent training — sharpness signal from the gate. (7) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'S', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (8) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Late Kick Advantage, Troubled Trip Comeback, Sharp Workout Pattern, Sharp Gate Work.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 48 days. (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Limited experience at today's distance (1 start). (4) Unproven on dirt surface (1 start). (5) Trip note from last race: Ins;2path turn;held2nd. (6) Post 9 in a 9-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path.
LGBM: 51 (4/8) CatBoost: 50 (4/8) XGB: 52 (5/8) LGBM-LS: 100 (1/8) CatBoost-LS: 42 (4/8) XGB-LS: 100 (1/8) Win Prob: 31.1% Value Score: 3.7 ★ ML: 8.00 (7/1) Overlay %: 3.03 Fair Odds: 7.74 (7/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | B |
| Early Pace | C | A |
| Mid Pace | C | A |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Finish Pos | A | A |
| Dirt Speed | B | B |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | B | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | B |
| Early Pace | C | A |
| Mid Pace | C | A |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Sprint FPS | A | A |
| Route FPS | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | B |
| Early Pace | D | F |
| Mid Pace | D | F |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Big last-race effort (81) — 12 pts above recent average. (2) One gate workout in recent training — sharpness signal from the gate. (3) Trainer 'WILLIAMS SEAN' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (4) Last race E1 pace (89.0) was 6.2 pts above personal avg (82.8) and horse still finished 4th — pace collapse victim; expect bounce if today's fractions are softer. (5) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'O', 'T', 'U', 'V']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Pace Collapse Victim, Troubled Trip Comeback, Stable on Fire, Sharp Gate Work.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Repeatedly beaten at this class level (3 of last 5 starts). (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 6 recent starts). (4) Trip note from last race: Rail; evened out 1/16.
LGBM: 62 (5/12) CatBoost: 61 (5/12) XGB: 49 (7/12) LGBM-LS: 79 (7/12) CatBoost-LS: 58 (6/12) XGB-LS: 100 (1/12) Win Prob: 31.2% Value Score: 3.86 ★ ML: 8.00 (7/1) Overlay %: 0.74 Fair Odds: 10.34 (9/1) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | C | B |
| Early Pace | D | C |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | C | B |
| Finish Pos | F | F |
| Dirt Speed | C | A |
| Turf Speed | B | B |
| Distance Speed | C | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | B |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | F | C |
| Late Pace | B | A |
| Sprint FPS | D | C |
| Route FPS | D | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | B |
| Early Pace | D | B |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (51%). (2) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (45%). (3) In the money in last 3 consecutive starts. (4) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 86 vs field 78). (5) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (6) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (7) Returning from 53-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot. (8) Has won at OP on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (9) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'O', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (10) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 9/10 — angles: Consistent In-The-Money, Sharp Return Workout, Won Here Before, Hot Trainer, Hot Jockey, Troubled Trip Comeback, Closer in Pace Duel, Won at This Distance, Late Kick Advantage.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 53 days. (2) Trip note from last race: Btw3p1/4;7p upr;kpt on. (3) No workout in last 30 days despite 53 days since last race.
LGBM: 100 (1/12) CatBoost: 78 (4/12) XGB: 82 (4/12) LGBM-LS: 1 (12/12) CatBoost-LS: 74 (4/12) XGB-LS: 90 (6/12) Win Prob: 47.6% Value Score: 3.61 ★ ML: 4.50 (7/2) Overlay %: -4.40 Fair Odds: 10.34 (9/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | B |
| Early Pace | D | B |
| Mid Pace | D | B |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Finish Pos | A | B |
| Dirt Speed | C | A |
| Turf Speed | F | D |
| Distance Speed | C | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | D | C |
| Mid Pace | D | C |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Sprint FPS | D | C |
| Route FPS | D | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | B |
| Early Pace | D | B |
| Mid Pace | D | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (2) Dropping in class ($10,000 vs last $12,500) after a 33-day freshening — trainer setup-for-win angle. (3) Outstanding wet-track record: 2W from 6 starts (33%) — thrives when the going is off. (4) Carries 5 lbs less than field median (116 lbs vs median 121 lbs). (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Class Drop After Rest, Off-Track Ace, Closer in Pace Duel, Weight Advantage.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 33 days. (2) Speed average (64) well below field median (74). (3) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 4 recent starts). (4) Trip note from last race: Herded out check start. (5) 0 wins from post 3 in 4 recent starts.
LGBM: 0 CatBoost: 0 XGB: 0 LGBM-LS: 47 (10/12) CatBoost-LS: 0 XGB-LS: 39 (10/12) Win Prob: 3.2% Value Score: 1.38 ★ ML: 30.00 (30/1) Overlay %: 3.63 Fair Odds: 15.74 (15/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | F | D |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | F | D |
| Late Pace | D | C |
| Finish Pos | D | F |
| Dirt Speed | F | B |
| Turf Speed | C | B |
| Distance Speed | F | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | D | C |
| Mid Pace | D | C |
| Late Pace | D | C |
| Sprint FPS | F | D |
| Route FPS | F | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | D |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | F | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Big last-race effort (81) — 11 pts above recent average. (2) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (3) Fourth race back from a 70-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (4) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Closer in Pace Duel, Won at This Distance, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Repeatedly beaten at this class level (4 of last 5 starts). (2) Trip note from last race: 4p turn;7p lane;evenly. (3) No workout in last 30 days despite 19 days since last race.
LGBM: 50 (8/12) CatBoost: 46 (8/12) XGB: 36 (9/12) LGBM-LS: 84 (4/12) CatBoost-LS: 42 (9/12) XGB-LS: 93 (3/12) Win Prob: 18% Value Score: 3.97 ★ ML: 15.00 (14/1) Overlay %: 3.02 Fair Odds: 12.23 (11/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | D | B |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | B | A |
| Late Pace | D | C |
| Finish Pos | D | F |
| Dirt Speed | A | A |
| Turf Speed | F | D |
| Distance Speed | B | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | B |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | C | B |
| Sprint FPS | A | B |
| Route FPS | B | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | C |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | B | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Big last-race effort (86) — 10 pts above recent average. (2) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (44%). (3) Won last 2 consecutive starts. (4) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (5) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'S', 'U']) yet still finished 1st — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (6) Averages 73.9 speed pts in today's distance/surface configuration vs 62.3 in other configs (7 qualifying starts) — returning to ideal setup. (7) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Win Streak Momentum, Hot Jockey, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won at This Distance, Return to Proven Setup.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 31 days. (2) Rising in class today ($5,000 → $10,000). (3) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (4) Trip note from last race: Bmp; shdw; 5wbid; up. (5) Last race was career-best speed (86) — bounce risk after peak effort. (6) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 9.6 pts: [86, 85, 65, 77, 68]) — unpredictable performer. (7) First start at OP — never raced here before (last seen at: FG).
LGBM: 82 (4/12) CatBoost: 88 (2/12) XGB: 85 (2/12) LGBM-LS: 3 (11/12) CatBoost-LS: 82 (2/12) XGB-LS: 96 (2/12) Win Prob: 45.4% Value Score: 2.81 ★ ML: 3.50 (5/2) Overlay %: -7.11 Fair Odds: 10.06 (9/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | D | C |
| Early Pace | C | B |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | D | B |
| Finish Pos | B | C |
| Dirt Speed | D | A |
| Turf Speed | C | B |
| Distance Speed | D | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | B | A |
| Sprint FPS | A | A |
| Route FPS | B | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | C |
| Early Pace | C | B |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 32-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Dropping in class today ($20,000 → $10,000). (3) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 82 vs field 78). (4) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (5) Dropping in class ($10,000 vs last $20,000) after a 32-day freshening — trainer setup-for-win angle. (6) Carries 5 lbs less than field median (116 lbs vs median 121 lbs). (7) Career-best figure (87) buried in races 4–10 back — 13 pts above race median and 7 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (8) Averages 77.3 speed pts in today's distance/surface configuration vs 71.9 in other configs (3 qualifying starts) — returning to ideal setup. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 9/10 — angles: Class Drop After Rest, Class Drop, Closer in Pace Duel, Hidden Figure, Return to Proven Setup, Late Kick Advantage, Weight Advantage.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 32 days. (2) Moving from a route to a sprint today. (3) Trip note from last race: Steady rail5/16; yield. (4) Consistently runs wide at the first call (4 of last 5 starts). (5) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 11.2 pts: [50, 73, 80, 67, 71]) — unpredictable performer.
LGBM: 32 (10/12) CatBoost: 20 (10/12) XGB: 29 (10/12) LGBM-LS: 84 (3/12) CatBoost-LS: 22 (10/12) XGB-LS: 26 (11/12) Win Prob: 12.3% Value Score: 3.57 ★ ML: 20.00 (20/1) Overlay %: 2.47 Fair Odds: 15.86 (15/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | F | F |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | C | B |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | F | C |
| Late Pace | B | A |
| Finish Pos | C | D |
| Dirt Speed | C | A |
| Turf Speed | D | C |
| Distance Speed | C | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | C |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | D | C |
| Late Pace | D | C |
| Sprint FPS | F | D |
| Route FPS | D | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | B |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | F | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (45%). (2) Big last-race effort (82) — 11 pts above recent average. (3) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (4) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'O', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Hot Trainer, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won at This Distance.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Trip note from last race: 3p;bid 6p upr; kept on. (2) Stepping up to $10,000 — highest class level in last 10 starts (previous high: $5,000). (3) Post 7 in a 13-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path.
LGBM: 45 (9/12) CatBoost: 44 (9/12) XGB: 45 (8/12) LGBM-LS: 89 (2/12) CatBoost-LS: 44 (8/12) XGB-LS: 64 (9/12) Win Prob: 15.3% Value Score: 3.36 ★ ML: 15.00 (14/1) Overlay %: 3.06 Fair Odds: 12.15 (11/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | B |
| Early Pace | C | B |
| Mid Pace | B | A |
| Late Pace | B | A |
| Finish Pos | A | B |
| Dirt Speed | C | A |
| Turf Speed | D | B |
| Distance Speed | C | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | B |
| Early Pace | C | B |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | B | A |
| Sprint FPS | C | C |
| Route FPS | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | B |
| Early Pace | C | B |
| Mid Pace | B | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Speed average (81) well above field median (74). (2) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 89 vs field 85). (3) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (4) Fourth race back from a 48-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (5) Career-best figure (92) buried in races 4–10 back — 18 pts above race median and 16 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 9/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Early Speed Edge, Closer in Pace Duel, Hidden Figure, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 7 recent starts). (2) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 14 starts). (3) Trip note from last race: Pop gate;bmp btw early. (4) Outside post (8) in a large field of 13 horses. (5) Has not won in last 10 starts despite career wins. (6) No workout in last 30 days despite 20 days since last race. (7) Dropping in class in consecutive starts ($30,000 → $24,000 → $10,000). (8) Post 8 in a 13-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path. (9) 0 wins from 10 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface. (10) Both speed figures (76→75→71) AND claiming price ($30,000→$24,000→$10,000) have declined in each of last 3 starts.
LGBM: 57 (6/12) CatBoost: 57 (6/12) XGB: 69 (5/12) LGBM-LS: 83 (5/12) CatBoost-LS: 60 (5/12) XGB-LS: 82 (8/12) Win Prob: 20% Value Score: 3.58 ★ ML: 12.00 (11/1) Overlay %: 2.94 Fair Odds: 10.72 (10/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | B |
| Finish Pos | C | D |
| Dirt Speed | A | A |
| Turf Speed | A | A |
| Distance Speed | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | B |
| Early Pace | C | B |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | D | C |
| Sprint FPS | B | B |
| Route FPS | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | A |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (43%). (2) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (43%). (3) Won last 2 consecutive starts. (4) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 84 vs field 78). (5) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (6) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (7) Trainer 'ASMUSSEN STEVEN M' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (8) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'S', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 1st — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Win Streak Momentum, Hot Trainer, Hot Jockey, Troubled Trip Comeback, Closer in Pace Duel, Won at This Distance, Stable on Fire, Late Kick Advantage.
⚠ Concerns:(1) 0 wins from 11 career starts on off tracks. (2) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 12 starts). (3) Trip note from last race: Str duel;edged clear. (4) Outside post (9) in a large field of 13 horses. (5) Stepping up to $10,000 — highest class level in last 10 starts (previous high: $7,500). (6) Post 9 in a 13-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path.
LGBM: 99 (2/12) CatBoost: 100 (1/12) XGB: 100 (1/12) LGBM-LS: 100 (1/12) CatBoost-LS: 100 (1/12) XGB-LS: 90 (5/12) Win Prob: 53.9% Value Score: 2.59 ★ ML: 2.50 (9/5) Overlay %: -11.21 Fair Odds: 9.47 (8/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | B |
| Early Pace | D | C |
| Mid Pace | D | B |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Finish Pos | A | B |
| Dirt Speed | A | A |
| Turf Speed | B | B |
| Distance Speed | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | D | C |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Sprint FPS | B | C |
| Route FPS | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | D | C |
| Mid Pace | D | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 90 vs field 85). (2) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (3) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (4) Carries 5 lbs less than field median (116 lbs vs median 121 lbs). (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Early Speed Edge, Closer in Pace Duel, Won at This Distance, Weight Advantage.
⚠ Concerns:(1) 0 wins from 6 career starts on off tracks. (2) Trip note from last race: Pressed; gave way. (3) Outside post (10) in a large field of 13 horses. (4) Has not won in last 10 starts despite career wins. (5) No workout in last 30 days despite 25 days since last race. (6) Dropping in class in consecutive starts ($15,000 → $12,500 → $10,000). (7) Post 10 in a 13-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path. (8) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 12.2 pts: [49, 64, 68, 81, 75]) — unpredictable performer. (9) 0 wins from 8 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
LGBM: 20 (11/12) CatBoost: 16 (11/12) XGB: 1 (12/12) LGBM-LS: 65 (9/12) CatBoost-LS: 12 (11/12) XGB-LS: 12 (12/12) Win Prob: 5.9% Value Score: 2.52 ★ ML: 30.00 (30/1) Overlay %: 3.62 Fair Odds: 15.77 (15/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | F |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | D | C |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | B | A |
| Late Pace | F | C |
| Finish Pos | F | F |
| Dirt Speed | D | A |
| Turf Speed | A | B |
| Distance Speed | D | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | D |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | F | D |
| Sprint FPS | C | C |
| Route FPS | C | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | C |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | B | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 33-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Speed average (83) well above field median (74). (3) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (41%). (4) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (49%). (5) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 89 vs field 85). (6) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 84 vs field 78). (7) Strong speed 2 back (85), modest dip last out (80) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (8) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (9) Dropping in class ($10,000 vs last $12,500) after a 33-day freshening — trainer setup-for-win angle. (10) Returning from 33-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot. (11) Trainer 'HARTMAN CHRIS' has 3 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (12) Career-best figure (90) buried in races 4–10 back — 16 pts above race median and 5 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (13) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['F', 'L', 'O', 'T']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (14) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Class Drop After Rest, Sharp Return Workout, Hot Jockey, Troubled Trip Comeback, Hidden Figure, Late Kick Advantage, Hot Trainer, Early Speed Edge, Form Reversal, Won at This Distance, Stable on Fire.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 33 days. (2) Was claimed from its most recent race - new connections. (3) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 15 starts). (4) Trip note from last race: 3p;float7p lane;ran on. (5) Outside post (11) in a large field of 13 horses. (6) Post 11 in a 13-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path.
LGBM: 91 (3/12) CatBoost: 80 (3/12) XGB: 82 (3/12) LGBM-LS: 0 CatBoost-LS: 82 (3/12) XGB-LS: 90 (4/12) Win Prob: 39.4% Value Score: 3.26 ★ ML: 5.00 (9/2) Overlay %: -2.72 Fair Odds: 9.65 (9/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Finish Pos | B | C |
| Dirt Speed | B | A |
| Turf Speed | A | A |
| Distance Speed | B | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | B |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Sprint FPS | A | B |
| Route FPS | C | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Speed average (83) well above field median (74). (2) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 88 vs field 85). (3) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 83 vs field 78). (4) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (5) Outstanding wet-track record: 1W from 4 starts (25%) — thrives when the going is off. (6) Has won at OP on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (7) Career-best figure (98) buried in races 4–10 back — 24 pts above race median and 8 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (8) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Won Here Before, Early Speed Edge, Off-Track Ace, Won at This Distance, Hidden Figure, Late Kick Advantage.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Trip note from last race: Rank;off slow;6w 1/4. (2) Outside post (12) in a large field of 13 horses. (3) No workout in last 30 days despite 27 days since last race. (4) Post 12 in a 13-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path. (5) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 9.1 pts: [72, 69, 90, 72, 84]) — unpredictable performer.
LGBM: 51 (7/12) CatBoost: 47 (7/12) XGB: 55 (6/12) LGBM-LS: 82 (6/12) CatBoost-LS: 54 (7/12) XGB-LS: 86 (7/12) Win Prob: 15% Value Score: 3.31 ★ ML: 15.00 (14/1) Overlay %: 3.24 Fair Odds: 11.84 (11/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | B | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | B | A |
| Finish Pos | B | D |
| Dirt Speed | A | A |
| Turf Speed | F | D |
| Distance Speed | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | B |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | B |
| Sprint FPS | B | B |
| Route FPS | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | B | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Big last-race effort (56) — 16 pts above recent average. (2) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (3) Outstanding wet-track record: 1W from 4 starts (25%) — thrives when the going is off. (4) Carries 7 lbs less than field median (114 lbs vs median 121 lbs). (5) Career-best figure (83) buried in races 4–10 back — 9 pts above race median and 23 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (6) Cutting back to sprint (1320 yds) from routes — sprint speed figures (41.8) are 7.9 pts better than route figures (34.0). (7) Averages 77.7 speed pts in today's distance/surface configuration vs 58.9 in other configs (3 qualifying starts) — returning to ideal setup. (8) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 9/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Closer in Pace Duel, Hidden Figure, Return to Proven Setup, Distance Cutback, Off-Track Ace, Weight Advantage.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Rising in class today ($5,000 → $10,000). (2) Repeatedly beaten at this class level (4 of last 5 starts). (3) Poor recent form - recent speed ratings well below career norm. (4) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (5) Speed average (64) well below field median (74). (6) Moving from a route to a sprint today. (7) Trip note from last race: Pass tired ones. (8) Outside post (13) in a large field of 13 horses. (9) Has not won in last 10 starts despite career wins. (10) No workout in last 30 days despite 17 days since last race. (11) Rising in class ($5,000 → $10,000) after finishing 7 last out — double negative. (12) Post 13 in a 13-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path. (13) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 18.8 pts: [56, 29, 60, 31, 72]) — unpredictable performer. (14) 0 wins from 10 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
LGBM: 3 (12/12) CatBoost: 4 (12/12) XGB: 2 (11/12) LGBM-LS: 66 (8/12) CatBoost-LS: 8 (12/12) XGB-LS: 0 Win Prob: 4% Value Score: 1.72 ★ ML: 30.00 (30/1) Overlay %: 2.70 Fair Odds: 18.84 (16/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | F | F |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | F | D |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | D | B |
| Late Pace | F | D |
| Finish Pos | D | F |
| Dirt Speed | F | B |
| Turf Speed | A | B |
| Distance Speed | F | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | F | D |
| Late Pace | F | F |
| Sprint FPS | D | C |
| Route FPS | F | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | D |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | D | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($30,000 → $12,500). (2) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 78 vs field 62). (3) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (4) Dropping in class ($12,500 vs last $30,000) after a 440-day freshening — trainer setup-for-win angle. (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Class Drop After Rest, Class Drop, Closer in Pace Duel, Late Kick Advantage.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 440 days. (2) Limited experience at today's distance (1 start). (3) Moving from a route to a sprint today. (4) Unproven on dirt surface (2 starts). (5) Trip note from last race: Stalk 4p btw;faded 2nd.
LGBM: 50 (8/13) CatBoost: 42 (8/13) XGB: 59 (8/13) LGBM-LS: 53 (7/13) CatBoost-LS: 42 (8/13) XGB-LS: 47 (10/13) Win Prob: 13.3% Value Score: 2.71 ★ ML: 12.00 (11/1) Overlay %: 1.57 Fair Odds: 14.45 (13/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Finish Pos | F | D |
| Dirt Speed | F | F |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | F | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Sprint FPS | D | D |
| Route FPS | D | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (41%). (2) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (49%). (3) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (4) One gate workout in recent training — sharpness signal from the gate. (5) Trainer 'HARTMAN CHRIS' has 3 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Hot Trainer, Hot Jockey, Closer in Pace Duel, Stable on Fire, Sharp Gate Work.
⚠ Concerns:(1) First-time starter - no previous race record. (2) First time at today's distance. (3) Has never raced on dirt surface.
LGBM: 38 (10/13) CatBoost: 34 (10/13) XGB: 38 (11/13) LGBM-LS: 92 (4/13) CatBoost-LS: 36 (10/13) XGB-LS: 56 (8/13) Win Prob: 20.3% Value Score: 4.14 ★ ML: 12.00 (11/1) Overlay %: 1.68 Fair Odds: 14.19 (13/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | F | F |
| Mid Pace | F | F |
| Late Pace | F | F |
| Finish Pos | C | A |
| Dirt Speed | F | F |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | F | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | F |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | F | F |
| Mid Pace | F | F |
| Late Pace | F | F |
| Sprint FPS | F | F |
| Route FPS | F | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | F |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | F | F |
| Mid Pace | F | F |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (45%). (2) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 4 wins from 14 starts (29%). (3) Career-best speed figure (70) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (4) Big last-race effort (64) — 9 pts above recent average. (5) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (44%). (6) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 86 vs field 83). (7) Fourth race back from a 50-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (8) Strong speed 2 back (70), modest dip last out (64) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (9) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'F', 'L', 'O', 'S', 'T']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (10) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Big Last Effort, Career-Best Recent Figure, Hot Trainer, Hot Jockey, Early Speed Edge, Form Reversal, Troubled Trip Comeback, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 4 recent starts). (3) Trip note from last race: 3-4p;flatten;held show. (4) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 11.0 pts: [64, 70, 54, 42, 51]) — unpredictable performer. (5) 0 wins from 5 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
LGBM: 91 (3/13) CatBoost: 75 (3/13) XGB: 90 (2/13) LGBM-LS: 6 (11/13) CatBoost-LS: 77 (3/13) XGB-LS: 61 (5/13) Win Prob: 43.5% Value Score: 4.09 ★ ML: 5.00 (9/2) Overlay %: -1.86 Fair Odds: 10.41 (9/1) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Finish Pos | C | A |
| Dirt Speed | A | C |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | A | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | D |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | B | C |
| Sprint FPS | A | A |
| Route FPS | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (2) Fourth race back from a 396-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (3) Strong speed 2 back (50), modest dip last out (43) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (4) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 5/10 — angles: Closer in Pace Duel, Form Reversal, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 41 days. (2) Speed average (42) well below field median (56). (3) Limited experience at today's distance (2 starts). (4) Moving from a route to a sprint today. (5) Trip note from last race: Wellback 3p; no threat. (6) No workout in last 30 days despite 41 days since last race.
LGBM: 0 CatBoost: 0 (13/13) XGB: 2 (13/13) LGBM-LS: 26 (9/13) CatBoost-LS: 1 (13/13) XGB-LS: 22 (13/13) Win Prob: 2.6% Value Score: 1.26 ML: 30.00 (30/1) Overlay %: 1.83 Fair Odds: 24.70 (25/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | F | F |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | F | D |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Finish Pos | C | A |
| Dirt Speed | D | D |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | D | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | F | D |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Sprint FPS | F | D |
| Route FPS | D | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 34-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Dropping in class today ($20,000 → $12,500). (3) Speed average (63) well above field median (56). (4) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 91 vs field 83). (5) Fourth race back from a 338-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (6) Dropping in class ($12,500 vs last $20,000) after a 34-day freshening — trainer setup-for-win angle. (7) Last race E1 pace (99.0) was 8.2 pts above personal avg (90.8) and horse still finished 5th — pace collapse victim; expect bounce if today's fractions are softer. (8) Career-best figure (70) buried in races 4–10 back — 14 pts above race median and 6 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Class Drop After Rest, Pace Collapse Victim, Class Drop, Early Speed Edge, Hidden Figure, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 34 days. (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 4 recent starts). (4) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 5 starts). (5) Trip note from last race: Rail;cued5/16;yielded. (6) Was the betting favorite in the last race but finished off the board. (7) Dropping in class in consecutive starts ($75,000 → $30,000 → $20,000). (8) 0 wins from 5 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
LGBM: 77 (6/13) CatBoost: 64 (6/13) XGB: 85 (3/13) LGBM-LS: 100 (1/13) CatBoost-LS: 64 (6/13) XGB-LS: 100 (1/13) Win Prob: 46.5% Value Score: 9.49 ★ ML: 12.00 (11/1) Overlay %: 4.10 Fair Odds: 10.11 (9/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | D |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Finish Pos | C | A |
| Dirt Speed | A | C |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | A | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Sprint FPS | A | A |
| Route FPS | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (48%). (2) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 66 vs field 62). (3) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (4) Returning from 34-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot. (5) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'F', 'L', 'T']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Sharp Return Workout, Hot Jockey, Troubled Trip Comeback, Closer in Pace Duel, Late Kick Advantage.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 34 days. (2) Repeatedly beaten at this class level (4 of last 5 starts). (3) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 9 recent starts). (4) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 10 starts). (5) Trip note from last race: Btw2-3p;weaken left ld. (6) Consistently breaks behind post position (4 of last 5 starts). (7) Consistently runs wide at the first call (4 of last 5 starts). (8) No workout in last 30 days despite 34 days since last race. (9) 0 wins from 10 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
LGBM: 35 (11/13) CatBoost: 22 (11/13) XGB: 40 (10/13) LGBM-LS: 65 (6/13) CatBoost-LS: 27 (11/13) XGB-LS: 53 (9/13) Win Prob: 13% Value Score: 4.27 ★ ML: 20.00 (20/1) Overlay %: 3.40 Fair Odds: 14.52 (14/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | B | D |
| Finish Pos | C | A |
| Dirt Speed | C | D |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | C | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | B | C |
| Sprint FPS | C | C |
| Route FPS | C | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (39%). (2) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 88 vs field 83). (3) Speed improved +4 pts then +10 pts in last 2 starts (50 → 54 → 64) — trainer is progressively building fitness. (4) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'U']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Form Surge, Hot Trainer, Early Speed Edge, Troubled Trip Comeback.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 6 recent starts). (3) Trip note from last race: 4p;cued3/8;1paced lane. (4) Dropping in class in consecutive starts ($30,000 → $24,000 → $12,500). (5) Post 7 in a 14-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path. (6) 0 wins from 5 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
LGBM: 46 (9/13) CatBoost: 40 (9/13) XGB: 53 (9/13) LGBM-LS: 97 (2/13) CatBoost-LS: 42 (9/13) XGB-LS: 75 (2/13) Win Prob: 35.8% Value Score: 8.99 ★ ML: 15.00 (14/1) Overlay %: 3.53 Fair Odds: 12.31 (11/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | B | A |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Finish Pos | C | A |
| Dirt Speed | C | C |
| Turf Speed | A | B |
| Distance Speed | C | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Sprint FPS | B | A |
| Route FPS | B | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | B | A |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 48-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Speed average (71) well above field median (56). (3) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (43%). (4) Career-best speed figure (74) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (5) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 90 vs field 83). (6) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 72 vs field 62). (7) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (8) Strong speed 2 back (77), modest dip last out (67) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (9) Trainer 'ASMUSSEN STEVEN M' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (10) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Career-Best Recent Figure, Late Kick Advantage, Hot Trainer, Early Speed Edge, Closer in Pace Duel, Form Reversal, Stable on Fire.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 48 days. (2) Was claimed from its most recent race - new connections. (3) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 5 recent starts). (4) Trip note from last race: 3p1/4; 7p str;improved. (5) Outside post (8) in a large field of 14 horses. (6) Was the betting favorite in the last race but finished off the board. (7) Dropping in class in consecutive starts ($30,000 → $16,000 → $12,500). (8) Post 8 in a 14-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path.
LGBM: 100 (1/13) CatBoost: 100 (1/13) XGB: 100 (1/13) LGBM-LS: 94 (3/13) CatBoost-LS: 100 (1/13) XGB-LS: 66 (4/13) Win Prob: 59.8% Value Score: 3.28 ★ ML: 2.50 (9/5) Overlay %: -8.81 Fair Odds: 9.63 (9/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | A |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | A | C |
| Finish Pos | C | A |
| Dirt Speed | A | C |
| Turf Speed | A | A |
| Distance Speed | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | B | A |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Sprint FPS | C | C |
| Route FPS | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 42-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) 3 workouts in last 30 days — horse appears sharp and fit. (3) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 70 vs field 62). (4) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (5) Fourth race back from a 209-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (6) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'F', 'L', 'S']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (7) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 5/10 — angles: Troubled Trip Comeback, Closer in Pace Duel, Late Kick Advantage, Sharp Workout Pattern, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 42 days. (2) 0 wins from 5 career starts on off tracks. (3) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 9 recent starts). (4) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 11 starts). (5) Trip note from last race: 3p;fan 6p lane; chased. (6) Outside post (9) in a large field of 14 horses. (7) Post 9 in a 14-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path. (8) 0 wins from 9 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
LGBM: 80 (5/13) CatBoost: 66 (5/13) XGB: 76 (6/13) LGBM-LS: 0 CatBoost-LS: 68 (5/13) XGB-LS: 57 (7/13) Win Prob: 40.1% Value Score: 3.46 ★ ML: 4.50 (7/2) Overlay %: -3.23 Fair Odds: 10.95 (10/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | A | C |
| Finish Pos | C | A |
| Dirt Speed | B | C |
| Turf Speed | A | C |
| Distance Speed | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | B | C |
| Sprint FPS | B | C |
| Route FPS | C | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 2 wins from 8 starts (25%). (2) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 89 vs field 83). (3) Fourth race back from a 384-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (4) Returning from 34-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot. (5) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'F', 'L', 'U']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Sharp Return Workout, Early Speed Edge, Troubled Trip Comeback, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 34 days. (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 5 recent starts). (4) Trip note from last race: Cued 2p3/8; faded lane. (5) Outside post (10) in a large field of 14 horses. (6) Last race was career-best speed (63) — bounce risk after peak effort. (7) Dropping in class in consecutive starts ($20,000 → $16,000 → $10,000). (8) Post 10 in a 14-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path. (9) 0 wins from 5 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
LGBM: 60 (7/13) CatBoost: 47 (7/13) XGB: 62 (7/13) LGBM-LS: 85 (5/13) CatBoost-LS: 49 (7/13) XGB-LS: 60 (6/13) Win Prob: 29.8% Value Score: 6.08 ★ ML: 12.00 (11/1) Overlay %: 2.82 Fair Odds: 11.94 (11/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Finish Pos | C | A |
| Dirt Speed | C | D |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | C | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Sprint FPS | A | A |
| Route FPS | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($24,000 → $12,500). (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (40%). (3) Big last-race effort (68) — 20 pts above recent average. (4) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (40%). (5) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 66 vs field 62). (6) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (7) Fourth race back from a 49-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (8) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['F', 'O', 'S', 'T']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Class Drop, Hot Trainer, Hot Jockey, Troubled Trip Comeback, Closer in Pace Duel, Late Kick Advantage, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 4 recent starts). (2) Trip note from last race: Off pace 2-3p; stay on. (3) Consistently runs wide at the first call (3 of last 5 starts). (4) Outside post (11) in a large field of 14 horses. (5) Last race was career-best speed (68) — bounce risk after peak effort. (6) Post 11 in a 14-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path. (7) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 16.9 pts: [68, 57, 61, 26, 65]) — unpredictable performer. (8) 0 wins from 5 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
LGBM: 90 (4/13) CatBoost: 77 (2/13) XGB: 84 (4/13) LGBM-LS: 3 (13/13) CatBoost-LS: 77 (2/13) XGB-LS: 72 (3/13) Win Prob: 50.8% Value Score: 3.59 ★ ML: 3.50 (5/2) Overlay %: -5.56 Fair Odds: 10.61 (10/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | B | D |
| Finish Pos | C | A |
| Dirt Speed | B | C |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Sprint FPS | C | C |
| Route FPS | C | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | F |
| Early Pace | C | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($40,000 → $12,500). (2) Career-best speed figure (35) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (45%). (4) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (5) Consistent workout spacing (7, 9 days) — disciplined training regimen. (6) One gate workout in recent training — sharpness signal from the gate. (7) Carries 5 lbs less than field median (114 lbs vs median 119 lbs). (8) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Class Drop, Hot Jockey, Closer in Pace Duel, Sharp Gate Work, Weight Advantage.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Speed average (35) well below field median (56). (2) Limited experience at today's distance (1 start). (3) Unproven on dirt surface (1 start). (4) Trip note from last race: Hop st; 5p; no threat. (5) Outside post (12) in a large field of 14 horses. (6) Post 12 in a 14-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path.
LGBM: 21 (12/13) CatBoost: 13 (12/13) XGB: 21 (12/13) LGBM-LS: 22 (10/13) CatBoost-LS: 16 (12/13) XGB-LS: 28 (11/13) Win Prob: 11% Value Score: 3.61 ★ ML: 20.00 (20/1) Overlay %: 1.99 Fair Odds: 18.88 (16/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | F |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | F | F |
| Finish Pos | C | A |
| Dirt Speed | D | D |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | D | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | F | D |
| Sprint FPS | D | D |
| Route FPS | F | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | F | F |
| Mid Pace | F | F |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($24,000 → $12,500). (2) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (3) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 5/10 — angles: Class Drop, Closer in Pace Duel.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Speed average (48) well below field median (56). (2) Moving from a route to a sprint today. (3) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 5 recent starts). (4) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 6 starts). (5) Trip note from last race: Chased 2p; retreated. (6) Outside post (13) in a large field of 14 horses. (7) Last race was career-best speed (54) — bounce risk after peak effort. (8) No workout in last 30 days despite 20 days since last race. (9) Post 13 in a 14-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path. (10) 0 wins from 6 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
LGBM: 0 (13/13) CatBoost: 0 XGB: 0 LGBM-LS: 47 (8/13) CatBoost-LS: 0 XGB-LS: 0 Win Prob: 3.9% Value Score: 1.9 ★ ML: 30.00 (30/1) Overlay %: 1.93 Fair Odds: 24.10 (25/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | F | F |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | C | D |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Finish Pos | C | A |
| Dirt Speed | D | D |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | D | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | D | C |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Sprint FPS | D | D |
| Route FPS | D | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | C | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) In the money in last 4 consecutive starts. (2) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 69 vs field 62). (3) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (4) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'O', 'S', 'T']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Consistent In-The-Money, Troubled Trip Comeback, Closer in Pace Duel, Late Kick Advantage.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 7 recent starts). (2) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 7 starts). (3) Trip note from last race: Broke in;3p;7p stretch. (4) Outside post (14) in a large field of 14 horses. (5) Last race was career-best speed (67) — bounce risk after peak effort. (6) No workout in last 30 days despite 21 days since last race. (7) Post 14 in a 14-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path. (8) 0 wins from 7 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
LGBM: 94 (2/13) CatBoost: 75 (4/13) XGB: 83 (5/13) LGBM-LS: 5 (12/13) CatBoost-LS: 73 (4/13) XGB-LS: 23 (12/13) Win Prob: 45.9% Value Score: 3.96 ★ ML: 4.50 (7/2) Overlay %: -3.40 Fair Odds: 11.20 (10/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | D |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | B | C |
| Finish Pos | C | A |
| Dirt Speed | B | C |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | B | A |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | A | C |
| Sprint FPS | B | B |
| Route FPS | B | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | D |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Career-best speed figure (79) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (2) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (44%). (3) Fourth race back from a 77-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (4) Strong speed 2 back (79), modest dip last out (72) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (5) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (6) Has won at OP on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (7) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'L', 'S', 'T']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (8) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Won Here Before, Hot Jockey, Troubled Trip Comeback, Form Reversal, Won at This Distance, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Rising in class today ($15,000 → $32,000). (2) Was claimed from its most recent race - new connections. (3) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (4) Moving from a route to a sprint today. (5) Trip note from last race: 4w 1st;bid;clr;2nd bst. (6) No workout in last 30 days despite 28 days since last race. (7) Dropping in class in consecutive starts ($22,500 → $16,000 → $15,000). (8) Stepping up to $32,000 — highest class level in last 10 starts (previous high: $22,500).
LGBM: 49 (7/10) CatBoost: 45 (8/10) XGB: 43 (7/10) LGBM-LS: 100 (1/10) CatBoost-LS: 43 (8/10) XGB-LS: 48 (9/10) Win Prob: 40.2% Value Score: 5.76 ★ ML: 10.00 (9/1) Overlay %: 0.96 Fair Odds: 11.59 (11/1) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | F | F |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | D | C |
| Early Pace | B | A |
| Mid Pace | B | A |
| Late Pace | D | C |
| Finish Pos | F | D |
| Dirt Speed | C | B |
| Turf Speed | A | B |
| Distance Speed | D | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | B |
| Early Pace | D | A |
| Mid Pace | D | A |
| Late Pace | C | B |
| Sprint FPS | A | A |
| Route FPS | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | C |
| Early Pace | B | A |
| Mid Pace | C | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 41-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (48%). (3) Fourth race back from a 98-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (4) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (5) Returning from 41-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Sharp Return Workout, Hot Trainer, Won at This Distance, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 41 days. (2) Trip note from last race: Bmp btwn st; 3p;no bid.
LGBM: 20 (9/10) CatBoost: 18 (9/10) XGB: 8 (9/10) LGBM-LS: 91 (3/10) CatBoost-LS: 16 (9/10) XGB-LS: 51 (8/10) Win Prob: 21.7% Value Score: 5.93 ★ ML: 20.00 (20/1) Overlay %: 3.99 Fair Odds: 12.08 (11/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | D | C |
| Early Pace | D | B |
| Mid Pace | F | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
| Finish Pos | D | D |
| Dirt Speed | C | B |
| Turf Speed | B | B |
| Distance Speed | D | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | C |
| Early Pace | D | A |
| Mid Pace | F | A |
| Late Pace | D | C |
| Sprint FPS | D | B |
| Route FPS | F | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | D | B |
| Mid Pace | F | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 46-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (49%). (3) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 92 vs field 88). (4) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (5) Dropping in class ($32,000 vs last $80,000) after a 46-day freshening — trainer setup-for-win angle. (6) Trainer 'HARTMAN CHRIS' has 3 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (7) Career-best figure (84) buried in races 4–10 back — 10 pts above race median and 6 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (8) Averages 76.5 speed pts in today's distance/surface configuration vs 69.5 in other configs (8 qualifying starts) — returning to ideal setup. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Class Drop After Rest, Early Speed Edge, Hot Jockey, Won at This Distance, Hidden Figure, Return to Proven Setup, Stable on Fire.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 46 days. (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 7 starts). (4) Trip note from last race: 4-5p; bump3/16; faded. (5) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 11.5 pts: [73, 56, 78, 84, 62]) — unpredictable performer.
LGBM: 58 (4/10) CatBoost: 50 (7/10) XGB: 55 (4/10) LGBM-LS: 83 (6/10) CatBoost-LS: 53 (5/10) XGB-LS: 65 (6/10) Win Prob: 27.2% Value Score: 3.89 ★ ML: 10.00 (9/1) Overlay %: 2.76 Fair Odds: 9.26 (8/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | B |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
| Finish Pos | C | C |
| Dirt Speed | C | B |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | B | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | C |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | B | A |
| Late Pace | F | C |
| Sprint FPS | A | A |
| Route FPS | F | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | B |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (45%). (2) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (3) Career-best figure (94) buried in races 4–10 back — 20 pts above race median and 13 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (4) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 5/10 — angles: Hot Jockey, Won at This Distance, Hidden Figure.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 5 starts). (3) Trip note from last race: Bump st; ins; gave way. (4) Consistently breaks behind post position (3 of last 5 starts). (5) No workout in last 30 days despite 18 days since last race.
LGBM: 100 (1/10) CatBoost: 100 (1/10) XGB: 85 (2/10) LGBM-LS: 0 CatBoost-LS: 100 (1/10) XGB-LS: 85 (4/10) Win Prob: 51.6% Value Score: 3.02 ★ ML: 3.50 (5/2) Overlay %: -5.86 Fair Odds: 7.93 (7/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | B | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | B | B |
| Finish Pos | B | C |
| Dirt Speed | A | A |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | C | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | B | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | B | B |
| Sprint FPS | B | A |
| Route FPS | D | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | B |
| Early Pace | F | B |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 80 vs field 73). (2) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (3) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (4) Dropping in class ($32,000 vs last $40,000) after a 55-day freshening — trainer setup-for-win angle. (5) Trainer 'VON HEMEL DONNIE K' has 3 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (6) Career-best figure (86) buried in races 4–10 back — 12 pts above race median and 6 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (7) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'S', 'T', 'U', 'V']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (8) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Class Drop After Rest, Troubled Trip Comeback, Closer in Pace Duel, Won at This Distance, Hidden Figure, Late Kick Advantage, Stable on Fire.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 55 days. (2) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 9 starts). (3) Trip note from last race: Bump st;3-4p;even btwn.
LGBM: 57 (5/10) CatBoost: 55 (5/10) XGB: 55 (5/10) LGBM-LS: 76 (9/10) CatBoost-LS: 53 (6/10) XGB-LS: 95 (2/10) Win Prob: 17.1% Value Score: 2.01 ★ ML: 8.00 (7/1) Overlay %: 0.85 Fair Odds: 9.66 (9/1) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | B |
| Early Pace | F | B |
| Mid Pace | D | A |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Finish Pos | A | B |
| Dirt Speed | B | A |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | F | C |
| Mid Pace | F | B |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Sprint FPS | F | C |
| Route FPS | C | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | B |
| Early Pace | F | B |
| Mid Pace | C | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 80 vs field 73). (2) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (3) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (4) Has won at OP on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (5) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'F', 'O', 'T']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Won Here Before, Troubled Trip Comeback, Closer in Pace Duel, Won at This Distance, Late Kick Advantage.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Trip note from last race: Prompted pace 2p; fade. (2) No workout in last 30 days despite 20 days since last race.
LGBM: 100 (2/10) CatBoost: 96 (2/10) XGB: 100 (1/10) LGBM-LS: 90 (4/10) CatBoost-LS: 97 (2/10) XGB-LS: 77 (5/10) Win Prob: 64.1% Value Score: 3.34 ★ ML: 3.00 (5/2) Overlay %: -7.86 Fair Odds: 7.82 (7/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | D | B |
| Mid Pace | C | A |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Finish Pos | A | B |
| Dirt Speed | B | A |
| Turf Speed | A | B |
| Distance Speed | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | C | A |
| Mid Pace | C | A |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Sprint FPS | C | A |
| Route FPS | C | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | C | A |
| Mid Pace | B | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 33-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Significantly better on off tracks (off: 85 vs fast: 76). (3) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (48%). (4) Big last-race effort (85) — 17 pts above recent average. (5) Fourth race back from a 54-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (6) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (7) Has won at OP on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (8) Speed improved +11 pts then +12 pts in last 2 starts (62 → 73 → 85) — trainer is progressively building fitness. (9) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['U']) yet still finished 1st — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (10) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Form Surge, Off-Track Preference, Troubled Trip Comeback, Hot Trainer, Won Here Before, Won at This Distance, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 33 days. (2) Rising in class today ($16,000 → $32,000). (3) Was claimed from its most recent race - new connections. (4) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (5) Trip note from last race: 2-4p;cue5/16;kick away. (6) Last race was career-best speed (85) — bounce risk after peak effort. (7) Dropping in class in consecutive starts ($75,000 → $32,000 → $16,000). (8) Post 7 in a 11-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path. (9) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 8.5 pts: [85, 73, 62, 68, 74]) — unpredictable performer. (10) Two consecutive 5+ pt speed jumps (62 → 73 → 85) and last race speed is well above career average (73) — high bounce risk after back-to-back peak efforts.
LGBM: 36 (8/10) CatBoost: 52 (6/10) XGB: 33 (8/10) LGBM-LS: 96 (2/10) CatBoost-LS: 51 (7/10) XGB-LS: 100 (1/10) Win Prob: 30.3% Value Score: 6.32 ★ ML: 15.00 (14/1) Overlay %: 4.34 Fair Odds: 9.94 (9/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | C | B |
| Early Pace | C | A |
| Mid Pace | B | A |
| Late Pace | B | B |
| Finish Pos | D | D |
| Dirt Speed | D | B |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | B | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | B |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | D | C |
| Sprint FPS | C | A |
| Route FPS | B | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | C |
| Early Pace | C | A |
| Mid Pace | B | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 90-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) 3 workouts in last 30 days — horse appears sharp and fit. (3) Consistent workout spacing (7, 7 days) — disciplined training regimen. (4) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (5) Dropping in class ($32,000 vs last $50,000) after a 90-day freshening — trainer setup-for-win angle. (6) Has won at OP on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (7) Career-best figure (93) buried in races 4–10 back — 19 pts above race median and 15 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (8) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Class Drop After Rest, Won Here Before, Won at This Distance, Hidden Figure, Sharp Workout Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 90 days. (2) Moving from a route to a sprint today. (3) Trip note from last race: No impact. (4) Outside post (8) in a large field of 11 horses. (5) Post 8 in a 11-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path. (6) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 9.5 pts: [68, 72, 78, 78, 93]) — unpredictable performer.
LGBM: 100 (3/10) CatBoost: 85 (3/10) XGB: 81 (3/10) LGBM-LS: 84 (5/10) CatBoost-LS: 87 (3/10) XGB-LS: 53 (7/10) Win Prob: 64.3% Value Score: 2.93 ★ ML: 2.50 (9/5) Overlay %: -11.46 Fair Odds: 8.54 (8/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | C | B |
| Early Pace | C | A |
| Mid Pace | C | A |
| Late Pace | F | C |
| Finish Pos | B | C |
| Dirt Speed | A | A |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | D | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | B |
| Early Pace | C | A |
| Mid Pace | C | A |
| Late Pace | F | D |
| Sprint FPS | B | A |
| Route FPS | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | B |
| Early Pace | C | A |
| Mid Pace | D | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (45%). (2) Career-best speed figure (75) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (48%). (4) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (5) One gate workout in recent training — sharpness signal from the gate. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Hot Trainer, Hot Jockey, Closer in Pace Duel, Sharp Gate Work.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 46 days. (2) Finish positions worsening over last 4 starts. (3) 0 wins from 4 career starts on off tracks. (4) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 4 recent starts). (5) Trip note from last race: Stumble st; trailed 2p. (6) Outside post (9) in a large field of 11 horses. (7) Stepping up to $32,000 — highest class level in last 10 starts (previous high: $25,000). (8) Post 9 in a 11-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path. (9) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 13.5 pts: [54, 78, 78, 77, 52]) — unpredictable performer. (10) 0 wins from 8 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
LGBM: 11 (10/10) CatBoost: 0 XGB: 1 (10/10) LGBM-LS: 78 (8/10) CatBoost-LS: 0 XGB-LS: 39 (10/10) Win Prob: 6.1% Value Score: 2.47 ★ ML: 30.00 (30/1) Overlay %: 4.56 Fair Odds: 13.21 (12/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | F | C |
| Early Pace | F | B |
| Mid Pace | F | B |
| Late Pace | F | C |
| Finish Pos | C | C |
| Dirt Speed | F | C |
| Turf Speed | A | A |
| Distance Speed | F | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | C |
| Early Pace | F | B |
| Mid Pace | D | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
| Sprint FPS | F | C |
| Route FPS | D | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | C |
| Early Pace | D | B |
| Mid Pace | F | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Speed average (79) well above field median (74). (2) Track specialist — 2 wins from 7 starts here (29%). (3) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 78 vs field 73). (4) Fourth race back from a 50-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (5) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (6) Has won at OP on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (7) Career-best figure (88) buried in races 4–10 back — 14 pts above race median and 7 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (8) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'O', 'S', 'T']) yet still finished 1st — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Won Here Before, Troubled Trip Comeback, Track Specialist, Won at This Distance, Hidden Figure, Late Kick Advantage, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Rising in class today ($16,000 → $32,000). (2) Was claimed from its most recent race - new connections. (3) Trip note from last race: Bid3p1/4; kept to task. (4) Outside post (10) in a large field of 11 horses. (5) Post 10 in a 11-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path.
LGBM: 54 (6/10) CatBoost: 62 (4/10) XGB: 47 (6/10) LGBM-LS: 83 (7/10) CatBoost-LS: 74 (4/10) XGB-LS: 92 (3/10) Win Prob: 24.3% Value Score: 4.11 ★ ML: 12.00 (11/1) Overlay %: 3.26 Fair Odds: 9.91 (9/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Finish Pos | F | D |
| Dirt Speed | A | A |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | B |
| Early Pace | B | A |
| Mid Pace | C | A |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Sprint FPS | D | B |
| Route FPS | B | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (46%). (2) In the money in last 3 consecutive starts. (3) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 92 vs field 88). (4) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (5) Has won at OP on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (6) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'L']) yet still finished 1st — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (7) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 9/10 — angles: Consistent In-The-Money, Won Here Before, Hot Trainer, Early Speed Edge, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won at This Distance.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Rising in class today ($12,500 → $32,000). (2) Was claimed from its most recent race - new connections. (3) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (4) Trip note from last race: 2-4p;bid1/8;drew clear. (5) Outside post (11) in a large field of 11 horses. (6) Post 11 in a 11-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path.
LGBM: 0 CatBoost: 7 (10/10) XGB: 0 LGBM-LS: 73 (10/10) CatBoost-LS: 4 (10/10) XGB-LS: 0 Win Prob: 18.3% Value Score: 7.37 ★ ML: 30.00 (30/1) Overlay %: 4.45 Fair Odds: 13.43 (12/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | F | F |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | F | C |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | D | A |
| Late Pace | D | C |
| Finish Pos | A | B |
| Dirt Speed | D | B |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | F | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | B |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | B | B |
| Sprint FPS | A | A |
| Route FPS | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | C |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | D | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 110-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (43%). (3) Career-best speed figure (55) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (4) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (5) One gate workout in recent training — sharpness signal from the gate. (6) Returning from 110-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot. (7) Trainer 'ASMUSSEN STEVEN M' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (8) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Sharp Return Workout, Hot Trainer, Closer in Pace Duel, Stable on Fire, Sharp Gate Work.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 110 days. (2) Speed average (55) well below field median (62). (3) First time at today's distance. (4) Moving from a route to a sprint today. (5) Today's distance is shorter than any previous start. (6) Unproven on dirt surface (1 start). (7) Trip note from last race: Ins; slow retreat 1/2.
LGBM: 28 (7/11) CatBoost: 15 (7/11) XGB: 20 (7/11) LGBM-LS: 53 (9/11) CatBoost-LS: 11 (7/11) XGB-LS: 0 Win Prob: 14.7% Value Score: 2.57 ★ ML: 12.00 (11/1) Overlay %: 1.07 Fair Odds: 13.78 (13/1) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | F | F |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | D | F |
| Finish Pos | F | F |
| Dirt Speed | D | D |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | F | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | D | F |
| Sprint FPS | F | F |
| Route FPS | F | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | D | F |
| Mid Pace | D | F |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Speed average (74) well above field median (62). (2) Career-best speed figure (77) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (3) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 94 vs field 88). (4) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 72 vs field 63). (5) Strong speed 2 back (77), modest dip last out (70) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (6) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['F', 'L', 'O', 'S', 'T']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (7) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 9/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Career-Best Recent Figure, Late Kick Advantage, Early Speed Edge, Troubled Trip Comeback, Form Reversal.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Was claimed from its most recent race - new connections. (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Limited experience at today's distance (2 starts). (4) Unproven on dirt surface (2 starts). (5) Trip note from last race: Slow st; 4-5p; flatten. (6) Stepping up to $40,000 — highest class level in last 10 starts (previous high: $32,000).
LGBM: 78 (4/11) CatBoost: 78 (2/11) XGB: 66 (2/11) LGBM-LS: 0 (10/11) CatBoost-LS: 82 (2/11) XGB-LS: 48 (8/11) Win Prob: 49.2% Value Score: 3.32 ★ ML: 4.00 (7/2) Overlay %: -4.02 Fair Odds: 8.27 (7/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | A |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | A | C |
| Finish Pos | D | B |
| Dirt Speed | B | B |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | A | C |
| Sprint FPS | C | B |
| Route FPS | B | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Career-best speed figure (71) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (2) Big last-race effort (69) — 9 pts above recent average. (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (49%). (4) Trainer 'VON HEMEL DONNIE K' has 3 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (5) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'O', 'S']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Career-Best Recent Figure, Hot Jockey, Troubled Trip Comeback, Stable on Fire.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 5 recent starts). (3) Trip note from last race: One paced inside. (4) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 8.2 pts: [69, 71, 55, 54, 68]) — unpredictable performer. (5) 0 wins from 7 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
LGBM: 42 (5/11) CatBoost: 40 (5/11) XGB: 43 (5/11) LGBM-LS: 75 (6/11) CatBoost-LS: 37 (5/11) XGB-LS: 82 (2/11) Win Prob: 34.7% Value Score: 5.15 ★ ML: 10.00 (9/1) Overlay %: 1.95 Fair Odds: 10.52 (10/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | C | B |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Finish Pos | F | F |
| Dirt Speed | C | C |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | D |
| Early Pace | C | B |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | A | D |
| Sprint FPS | C | B |
| Route FPS | C | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | C | B |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
✓ Positives:(1) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (42%). (2) 3 workouts in last 30 days — horse appears sharp and fit. (3) Has a bullet work (fastest at track that day) — sharp conditioning signal. (4) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (5) Consistent workout spacing (7, 7 days) — disciplined training regimen. (6) One gate workout in recent training — sharpness signal from the gate. (7) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Hot Jockey, Closer in Pace Duel, Bullet Workout, Sharp Workout Pattern, Sharp Gate Work.
⚠ Concerns:(1) First-time starter - no previous race record. (2) First time at today's distance. (3) Has never raced on dirt surface.
LGBM: 10 (9/11) CatBoost: 10 (8/11) XGB: 0 LGBM-LS: 75 (5/11) CatBoost-LS: 6 (10/11) XGB-LS: 36 (9/11) Win Prob: 20.2% Value Score: 3.55 ★ ML: 12.00 (11/1) Overlay %: 0.67 Fair Odds: 14.70 (14/1) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | F | F |
| Mid Pace | F | F |
| Late Pace | F | F |
| Finish Pos | B | A |
| Dirt Speed | F | F |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | F | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | F |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | F | F |
| Mid Pace | F | F |
| Late Pace | F | F |
| Sprint FPS | F | F |
| Route FPS | F | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | F |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | D | F |
| Mid Pace | D | F |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (48%). (2) Career-best speed figure (62) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (3) Has a bullet work (fastest at track that day) — sharp conditioning signal. (4) Fourth race back from a 80-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (5) Strong speed 2 back (62), modest dip last out (50) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Hot Trainer, Bullet Workout, Form Reversal, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Rising in class today ($15,000 → $40,000). (2) Was claimed from its most recent race - new connections. (3) Speed average (53) well below field median (62). (4) Limited experience at today's distance (2 starts). (5) Trip note from last race: Gave way midturn rail. (6) Consistently breaks behind post position (3 of last 5 starts). (7) Rising in class ($15,000 → $40,000) after finishing 6 last out — double negative. (8) Stepping up to $40,000 — highest class level in last 10 starts (previous high: $24,000).
LGBM: 15 (8/11) CatBoost: 8 (9/11) XGB: 17 (8/11) LGBM-LS: 89 (4/11) CatBoost-LS: 11 (8/11) XGB-LS: 65 (5/11) Win Prob: 26.7% Value Score: 5.77 ★ ML: 15.00 (14/1) Overlay %: 2.81 Fair Odds: 12.44 (11/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | C | B |
| Mid Pace | D | C |
| Late Pace | D | F |
| Finish Pos | B | A |
| Dirt Speed | C | D |
| Turf Speed | A | C |
| Distance Speed | C | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | C | B |
| Mid Pace | D | C |
| Late Pace | D | F |
| Sprint FPS | C | C |
| Route FPS | C | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
✓ Positives:(1) 3 workouts in last 30 days — horse appears sharp and fit. (2) Has a bullet work (fastest at track that day) — sharp conditioning signal. (3) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (4) Consistent workout spacing (7, 7 days) — disciplined training regimen. (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 5/10 — angles: Closer in Pace Duel, Bullet Workout, Sharp Workout Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) First-time starter - no previous race record. (2) First time at today's distance. (3) Has never raced on dirt surface.
LGBM: 5 (11/11) CatBoost: 4 (11/11) XGB: 1 (11/11) LGBM-LS: 65 (7/11) CatBoost-LS: 0 XGB-LS: 22 (11/11) Win Prob: 14.2% Value Score: 2.49 ★ ML: 12.00 (11/1) Overlay %: 0.62 Fair Odds: 14.84 (14/1) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | F | F |
| Mid Pace | F | F |
| Late Pace | F | F |
| Finish Pos | B | A |
| Dirt Speed | F | F |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | F | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | F |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | F | F |
| Mid Pace | F | F |
| Late Pace | F | F |
| Sprint FPS | F | F |
| Route FPS | F | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | F |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | D | F |
| Mid Pace | D | F |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Big last-race effort (70) — 9 pts above recent average. (2) Switching turf-to-dirt with a strong turf pedigree rating (107) — pedigree suggests main-track improvement is likely. (3) Speed improved +4 pts then +13 pts in last 2 starts (53 → 57 → 70) — trainer is progressively building fitness. (4) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'T']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Form Surge, Troubled Trip Comeback, Pedigree-Backed Switch.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Switching from turf to dirt today. (3) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 5 recent starts). (4) Trip note from last race: Trck 2w;led;yielded. (5) Post 7 in a 12-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path. (6) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 8.3 pts: [70, 57, 53, 72, 60]) — unpredictable performer. (7) First start at OP — never raced here before (last seen at: FG).
LGBM: 88 (3/11) CatBoost: 64 (4/11) XGB: 57 (4/11) LGBM-LS: 0 (11/11) CatBoost-LS: 65 (4/11) XGB-LS: 54 (7/11) Win Prob: 47.9% Value Score: 3.88 ★ ML: 5.00 (9/2) Overlay %: -2.81 Fair Odds: 9.49 (8/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | B | A |
| Mid Pace | B | A |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Finish Pos | B | A |
| Dirt Speed | B | C |
| Turf Speed | A | B |
| Distance Speed | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | B | A |
| Mid Pace | B | A |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Sprint FPS | B | A |
| Route FPS | B | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | B | A |
| Mid Pace | B | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 194-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Career-best speed figure (77) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (3) 4 workouts in last 30 days — horse appears sharp and fit. (4) Consistent workout spacing (6, 6 days) — disciplined training regimen. (5) One gate workout in recent training — sharpness signal from the gate. (6) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (7) Dropping in class ($40,000 vs last $50,000) after a 194-day freshening — trainer setup-for-win angle. (8) Carries 5 lbs less than field median (119 lbs vs median 124 lbs). (9) Last race E1 pace (94.0) was 6.8 pts above personal avg (87.2) and horse still finished 10th — pace collapse victim; expect bounce if today's fractions are softer. (10) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 9/10 — angles: Class Drop After Rest, Career-Best Recent Figure, Pace Collapse Victim, Won at This Distance, Sharp Workout Pattern, Sharp Gate Work, Weight Advantage.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 194 days. (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Speed average (56) well below field median (62). (4) Trip note from last race: Duel inside;empty lane. (5) Outside post (8) in a large field of 12 horses. (6) Post 8 in a 12-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path. (7) First start at OP — never raced here before (last seen at: PRM).
LGBM: 9 (10/11) CatBoost: 0 XGB: 7 (9/11) LGBM-LS: 59 (8/11) CatBoost-LS: 3 (11/11) XGB-LS: 24 (10/11) Win Prob: 10.6% Value Score: 3.01 ★ ML: 20.00 (20/1) Overlay %: 4.34 Fair Odds: 11.71 (11/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | C | B |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Finish Pos | B | A |
| Dirt Speed | B | B |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | D | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | C | B |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Sprint FPS | A | A |
| Route FPS | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | F |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | D | F |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 54-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 3 wins from 7 starts (43%). (3) Career-best speed figure (57) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (4) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (44%). (5) 4 workouts in last 30 days — horse appears sharp and fit. (6) Has a bullet work (fastest at track that day) — sharp conditioning signal. (7) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (8) Consistent workout spacing (7, 8 days) — disciplined training regimen. (9) Returning from 54-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot. (10) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 9/10 — angles: Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Career-Best Recent Figure, Sharp Return Workout, Hot Jockey, Bullet Workout, Closer in Pace Duel, Sharp Workout Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 54 days. (2) Speed average (57) well below field median (62). (3) Limited experience at today's distance (1 start). (4) Unproven on dirt surface (1 start). (5) Trip note from last race: Off slow;saved ground. (6) Outside post (9) in a large field of 12 horses. (7) Post 9 in a 12-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path.
LGBM: 35 (6/11) CatBoost: 35 (6/11) XGB: 33 (6/11) LGBM-LS: 98 (2/11) CatBoost-LS: 30 (6/11) XGB-LS: 71 (4/11) Win Prob: 23.5% Value Score: 2.85 ★ ML: 8.00 (7/1) Overlay %: -0.51 Fair Odds: 11.95 (11/1) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | D | C |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | B | D |
| Finish Pos | B | A |
| Dirt Speed | C | D |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | C | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | B | D |
| Sprint FPS | D | D |
| Route FPS | D | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | D | F |
| Mid Pace | D | F |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (59%). (2) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'S', 'V']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (3) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 5/10 — angles: Hot Trainer, Troubled Trip Comeback.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Limited experience at today's distance (2 starts). (3) Unproven on dirt surface (2 starts). (4) Trip note from last race: Pressed 3p; gave way. (5) Outside post (10) in a large field of 12 horses. (6) No workout in last 30 days despite 27 days since last race. (7) Post 10 in a 12-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path.
LGBM: 0 CatBoost: 6 (10/11) XGB: 6 (10/11) LGBM-LS: 93 (3/11) CatBoost-LS: 7 (9/11) XGB-LS: 74 (3/11) Win Prob: 19.2% Value Score: 5.44 ★ ML: 20.00 (20/1) Overlay %: 3.18 Fair Odds: 13.90 (13/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | F | F |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | B | A |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | B | D |
| Finish Pos | B | A |
| Dirt Speed | F | F |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | C | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | B | D |
| Sprint FPS | B | A |
| Route FPS | C | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | C | B |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (43%). (2) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (43%). (3) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 95 vs field 88). (4) Trainer 'ASMUSSEN STEVEN M' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Hot Trainer, Hot Jockey, Early Speed Edge, Stable on Fire.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 7 recent starts). (3) Tends to fade in the stretch at similar distances (5 of 7 starts). (4) Trip note from last race: Bmp brk;traffc1/2;fade. (5) Outside post (11) in a large field of 12 horses. (6) No workout in last 30 days despite 27 days since last race. (7) Post 11 in a 12-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path. (8) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 10.9 pts: [55, 78, 59, 79, 66]) — unpredictable performer. (9) 0 wins from 5 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
LGBM: 89 (2/11) CatBoost: 68 (3/11) XGB: 61 (3/11) LGBM-LS: 0 CatBoost-LS: 66 (3/11) XGB-LS: 54 (6/11) Win Prob: 36.9% Value Score: 3.49 ★ ML: 6.00 (11/2) Overlay %: -0.59 Fair Odds: 9.01 (8/1) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | A | D |
| Finish Pos | B | A |
| Dirt Speed | A | B |
| Turf Speed | A | B |
| Distance Speed | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Sprint FPS | A | A |
| Route FPS | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 35-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Speed average (72) well above field median (62). (3) Big last-race effort (80) — 11 pts above recent average. (4) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 92 vs field 88). (5) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 71 vs field 63). (6) Speed improved +4 pts then +9 pts in last 2 starts (67 → 71 → 80) — trainer is progressively building fitness. (7) Trainer 'WILLIAMS SEAN' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (8) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'S', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Big Last Effort, Form Surge, Early Speed Edge, Troubled Trip Comeback, Stable on Fire, Late Kick Advantage.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 35 days. (2) Rising in class today ($30,000 → $40,000). (3) Was claimed from its most recent race - new connections. (4) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (5) Trip note from last race: Bump st; pace2p-inside. (6) Outside post (12) in a large field of 12 horses. (7) Last race was career-best speed (80) — bounce risk after peak effort. (8) Post 12 in a 12-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path.
LGBM: 100 (1/11) CatBoost: 100 (1/11) XGB: 100 (1/11) LGBM-LS: 100 (1/11) CatBoost-LS: 100 (1/11) XGB-LS: 100 (1/11) Win Prob: 69.5% Value Score: 3.75 ★ ML: 3.00 (5/2) Overlay %: -6.70 Fair Odds: 7.46 (6/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | A |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | B | A |
| Late Pace | A | C |
| Finish Pos | B | A |
| Dirt Speed | A | B |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | A | C |
| Sprint FPS | A | A |
| Route FPS | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | C |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | B | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Big last-race effort (93) — 11 pts above recent average. (2) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (49%). (3) Fourth race back from a 67-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (4) Speed improved +9 pts then +10 pts in last 2 starts (74 → 83 → 93) — trainer is progressively building fitness. (5) Trainer 'HARTMAN CHRIS' has 3 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (6) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'F', 'L', 'O', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (7) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 9/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Form Surge, Hot Jockey, Troubled Trip Comeback, Stable on Fire, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Moving from a sprint to a route today. (3) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 6 recent starts). (4) Trip note from last race: Angld4w1/4;floated out. (5) No workout in last 30 days despite 25 days since last race. (6) Two consecutive 5+ pt speed jumps (74 → 83 → 93) and last race speed is well above career average (83) — high bounce risk after back-to-back peak efforts.
LGBM: 34 (6/6) CatBoost: 16 (6/6) XGB: 14 (6/6) LGBM-LS: 84 (4/6) CatBoost-LS: 33 (6/6) XGB-LS: 55 (3/6) Win Prob: 19.2% Value Score: 3.26 ★ ML: 12.00 (11/1) Overlay %: 4.53 Fair Odds: 8.61 (8/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | F | F |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | D | A |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | C | A |
| Late Pace | D | A |
| Finish Pos | F | F |
| Dirt Speed | C | A |
| Turf Speed | A | A |
| Distance Speed | D | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | A |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | B | A |
| Late Pace | D | A |
| Sprint FPS | C | C |
| Route FPS | C | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | A |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | D | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Speed average (90) well above field median (85). (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (45%). (3) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 4 wins from 14 starts (29%). (4) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (44%). (5) Track specialist — 2 wins from 6 starts here (33%). (6) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 93 vs field 85). (7) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (8) Fourth race back from a 274-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (9) Has won at today's distance (1870 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (10) Has won at OP on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (11) Speed improved +5 pts then +4 pts in last 2 starts (83 → 88 → 92) — trainer is progressively building fitness. (12) Career-best figure (97) buried in races 4–10 back — 12 pts above race median and 5 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (13) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['O', 'S', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (14) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Form Surge, Won Here Before, Hot Trainer, Hot Jockey, Troubled Trip Comeback, Track Specialist, Closer in Pace Duel, Won at This Distance, Hidden Figure, Late Kick Advantage, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Moving from a sprint to a route today. (2) Trip note from last race: 2p turn;6p upr;up show.
LGBM: 84 (2/6) CatBoost: 82 (3/6) XGB: 86 (2/6) LGBM-LS: 0 (6/6) CatBoost-LS: 70 (3/6) XGB-LS: 51 (5/6) Win Prob: 44.9% Value Score: 3.23 ★ ML: 4.50 (7/2) Overlay %: 1.39 Fair Odds: 5.54 (11/2) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | F | C |
| Mid Pace | C | A |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Finish Pos | B | C |
| Dirt Speed | C | A |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | A |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | C | A |
| Late Pace | C | A |
| Sprint FPS | F | D |
| Route FPS | F | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | F | C |
| Mid Pace | B | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 33-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Has a bullet work (fastest at track that day) — sharp conditioning signal. (3) Fourth race back from a 48-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (4) Outstanding wet-track record: 3W from 8 starts (38%) — thrives when the going is off. (5) Returning from 33-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot. (6) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['F', 'L', 'T']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (7) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Sharp Return Workout, Off-Track Ace, Troubled Trip Comeback, Bullet Workout, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 33 days. (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 9 recent starts). (4) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 6 starts). (5) Trip note from last race: 2-3p;flatten final 1/8. (6) 0 wins from 8 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
LGBM: 64 (5/6) CatBoost: 44 (5/6) XGB: 31 (5/6) LGBM-LS: 85 (3/6) CatBoost-LS: 47 (4/6) XGB-LS: 55 (4/6) Win Prob: 18.6% Value Score: 2.19 ★ ML: 8.00 (7/1) Overlay %: 5.57 Fair Odds: 6.11 (11/2) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | A |
| Early Pace | C | B |
| Mid Pace | B | A |
| Late Pace | C | A |
| Finish Pos | C | C |
| Dirt Speed | C | A |
| Turf Speed | A | A |
| Distance Speed | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | A |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | C | A |
| Late Pace | B | A |
| Sprint FPS | B | C |
| Route FPS | B | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | A |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | C | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 327-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (43%). (3) 3 workouts in last 30 days — horse appears sharp and fit. (4) Has a bullet work (fastest at track that day) — sharp conditioning signal. (5) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 91 vs field 86). (6) Consistent workout spacing (8, 7 days) — disciplined training regimen. (7) Has won at today's distance (1870 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (8) Returning from 327-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot. (9) Has won at OP on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (10) Trainer 'ASMUSSEN STEVEN M' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (11) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Sharp Return Workout, Won Here Before, Hot Trainer, Early Speed Edge, Won at This Distance, Bullet Workout, Stable on Fire, Sharp Workout Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 327 days. (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Trip note from last race: Keen off heels;weaknd. (4) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 15.5 pts: [88, 62, 105, 91, 85]) — unpredictable performer.
LGBM: 80 (3/6) CatBoost: 44 (4/6) XGB: 72 (4/6) LGBM-LS: 0 CatBoost-LS: 38 (5/6) XGB-LS: 43 (6/6) Win Prob: 34.4% Value Score: 2.25 ★ ML: 4.00 (7/2) Overlay %: 0.39 Fair Odds: 5.38 (9/2) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | C | A |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | F | C |
| Finish Pos | D | F |
| Dirt Speed | A | A |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | C | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | A |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | F | D |
| Sprint FPS | A | A |
| Route FPS | C | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | A |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (44%). (2) In the money in last 4 consecutive starts. (3) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 93 vs field 85). (4) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (5) Has won at today's distance (1870 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (6) Has won at OP on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (7) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'L']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (8) Averages 84.4 speed pts in today's distance/surface configuration vs 75.5 in other configs (8 qualifying starts) — returning to ideal setup. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Consistent In-The-Money, Won Here Before, Hot Trainer, Troubled Trip Comeback, Closer in Pace Duel, Won at This Distance, Return to Proven Setup, Late Kick Advantage.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 40 days. (2) Trip note from last race: 2p;bmp7p1/8; led; nail. (3) Last race was career-best speed (96) — bounce risk after peak effort. (4) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 12.1 pts: [96, 95, 96, 93, 68]) — unpredictable performer.
LGBM: 73 (4/6) CatBoost: 95 (2/6) XGB: 100 (1/6) LGBM-LS: 96 (2/6) CatBoost-LS: 93 (2/6) XGB-LS: 100 (1/6) Win Prob: 58.6% Value Score: 2.3 ★ ML: 2.00 (9/5) Overlay %: -8.67 Fair Odds: 4.95 (9/2) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | F | A |
| Early Pace | D | C |
| Mid Pace | F | B |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Finish Pos | A | B |
| Dirt Speed | D | A |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | B | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | D | C |
| Mid Pace | F | B |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Sprint FPS | D | D |
| Route FPS | D | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | A |
| Early Pace | D | C |
| Mid Pace | F | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 32-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Equipment change today (code: 1). (3) Fourth race back from a 49-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (4) Has won at today's distance (1870 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (5) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'F', 'L', 'O', 'T', 'V']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Troubled Trip Comeback, Won at This Distance, Classic Fourth Race Pattern, Equipment Change.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 32 days. (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Limited experience at today's distance (2 starts). (4) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 5 starts). (5) Trip note from last race: Btw2p;float6p lane;evn.
LGBM: 0 CatBoost: 0 XGB: 0 LGBM-LS: 79 (5/6) CatBoost-LS: 0 XGB-LS: 0 Win Prob: 12.6% Value Score: 3.47 ★ ML: 20.00 (20/1) Overlay %: 7.43 Fair Odds: 8.03 (7/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | A |
| Finish Pos | C | C |
| Dirt Speed | A | A |
| Turf Speed | C | B |
| Distance Speed | F | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | A |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | A |
| Sprint FPS | C | C |
| Route FPS | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | A |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Significantly better on off tracks (off: 99 vs fast: 90). (2) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 8 wins from 27 starts (30%). (3) Big last-race effort (99) — 10 pts above recent average. (4) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (45%). (5) In the money in last 5 consecutive starts. (6) Has won at today's distance (1870 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (7) Has won at OP on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (8) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'S', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (9) Averages 91.0 speed pts in today's distance/surface configuration vs 76.2 in other configs (5 qualifying starts) — returning to ideal setup. (10) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Big Last Effort, Consistent In-The-Money, Off-Track Preference, Won Here Before, Hot Jockey, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won at This Distance, Return to Proven Setup.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 32 days. (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Trip note from last race: Bid3p5/16;dug in5p str. (4) Last race was career-best speed (99) — bounce risk after peak effort. (5) Stepping up to $62,500 — highest class level in last 10 starts (previous high: $50,000).
LGBM: 100 (1/6) CatBoost: 100 (1/6) XGB: 80 (3/6) LGBM-LS: 100 (1/6) CatBoost-LS: 100 (1/6) XGB-LS: 75 (2/6) Win Prob: 60.8% Value Score: 2.23 ★ ML: 1.80 (9/5) Overlay %: -10.64 Fair Odds: 5.00 (9/2) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | C | A |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | D | A |
| Late Pace | B | A |
| Finish Pos | A | C |
| Dirt Speed | F | A |
| Turf Speed | B | A |
| Distance Speed | C | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | D | B |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Sprint FPS | A | A |
| Route FPS | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | C | B |
| Mid Pace | C | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 118-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (36%). (3) Career-best speed figure (44) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (4) 3 workouts in last 30 days — horse appears sharp and fit. (5) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (6) Returning from 118-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot. (7) Carries 7 lbs less than field median (112 lbs vs median 119 lbs). (8) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Sharp Return Workout, Hot Trainer, Closer in Pace Duel, Sharp Workout Pattern, Weight Advantage.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 118 days. (2) Speed average (24) well below field median (57). (3) Limited experience at today's distance (2 starts). (4) Unproven on dirt surface (2 starts). (5) Trip note from last race: Far back; no factor.
LGBM: 2 (13/13) CatBoost: 0 XGB: 5 (12/13) LGBM-LS: 27 (11/13) CatBoost-LS: 3 (13/13) XGB-LS: 24 (12/13) Win Prob: 5.3% Value Score: 3.09 ★ ML: 30.00 (30/1) Overlay %: 3.82 Fair Odds: 17.06 (16/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | F |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | C | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | D | F |
| Finish Pos | F | F |
| Dirt Speed | D | D |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | D | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | F |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | C | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | D | F |
| Sprint FPS | C | D |
| Route FPS | C | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | F |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | F |
| Early Pace | B | D |
| Mid Pace | B | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (48%). (2) Career-best speed figure (6) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (39%). (4) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Hot Trainer, Hot Jockey, Closer in Pace Duel.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Speed average (6) well below field median (57). (2) Limited experience at today's distance (1 start). (3) Unproven on dirt surface (1 start). (4) Trip note from last race: Stumble bump st; 3path.
LGBM: 5 (12/13) CatBoost: 5 (12/13) XGB: 4 (13/13) LGBM-LS: 0 CatBoost-LS: 4 (12/13) XGB-LS: 15 (13/13) Win Prob: 6.1% Value Score: 3.58 ★ ML: 30.00 (30/1) Overlay %: 3.57 Fair Odds: 17.91 (16/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | F | F |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | C | D |
| Late Pace | D | F |
| Finish Pos | F | F |
| Dirt Speed | D | D |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | C | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | F |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | C | D |
| Late Pace | D | F |
| Sprint FPS | B | D |
| Route FPS | D | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | F |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | D | F |
| Mid Pace | D | F |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 39-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Career-best speed figure (57) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (45%). (4) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Hot Jockey, Closer in Pace Duel.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 39 days. (2) Limited experience at today's distance (1 start). (3) Unproven on dirt surface (1 start). (4) Trip note from last race: Bmp st; ins; no factor.
LGBM: 40 (5/13) CatBoost: 39 (5/13) XGB: 46 (5/13) LGBM-LS: 68 (7/13) CatBoost-LS: 40 (5/13) XGB-LS: 74 (4/13) Win Prob: 35.8% Value Score: 6.06 ★ ML: 8.00 (7/1) Overlay %: 1.90 Fair Odds: 11.79 (11/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | B | D |
| Finish Pos | D | F |
| Dirt Speed | C | D |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | C | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | B | D |
| Sprint FPS | D | D |
| Route FPS | C | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | D | F |
| Mid Pace | D | F |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (40%). (2) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 73 vs field 66). (3) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (4) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 5/10 — angles: Hot Jockey, Closer in Pace Duel, Late Kick Advantage.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 32 days. (2) Rising in class today ($20,000 → $30,000). (3) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 6 recent starts). (4) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 6 starts). (5) Trip note from last race: 5p;fan9p upr;no impact. (6) Consistently runs wide at the first call (3 of last 5 starts). (7) No workout in last 30 days despite 32 days since last race. (8) Rising in class ($20,000 → $30,000) after finishing 6 last out — double negative. (9) 0 wins from 6 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
LGBM: 53 (3/13) CatBoost: 52 (3/13) XGB: 54 (3/13) LGBM-LS: 16 (12/13) CatBoost-LS: 52 (3/13) XGB-LS: 70 (5/13) Win Prob: 43.8% Value Score: 4.12 ★ ML: 4.00 (7/2) Overlay %: -2.93 Fair Odds: 11.96 (11/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | C | D |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | A | C |
| Finish Pos | D | D |
| Dirt Speed | A | C |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | A | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | D |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | B | C |
| Sprint FPS | C | D |
| Route FPS | B | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | B | D |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (37%). (2) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 2 wins from 7 starts (29%). (3) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 86 vs field 81). (4) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (5) Fourth race back from a 200-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (6) Returning from 32-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot. (7) Career-best figure (66) buried in races 4–10 back — 9 pts above race median and 6 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (8) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'S', 'T', 'U', 'V']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Sharp Return Workout, Hot Trainer, Early Speed Edge, Troubled Trip Comeback, Closer in Pace Duel, Hidden Figure, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 32 days. (2) Rising in class today ($20,000 → $30,000). (3) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 7 recent starts). (4) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 5 starts). (5) Trip note from last race: Bump stdy st; 3p; even. (6) Consistently breaks behind post position (3 of last 5 starts). (7) Consistently runs wide at the first call (3 of last 5 starts). (8) No workout in last 30 days despite 32 days since last race. (9) Rising in class ($20,000 → $30,000) after finishing 3 last out — double negative. (10) 0 wins from 7 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
LGBM: 52 (4/13) CatBoost: 46 (4/13) XGB: 52 (4/13) LGBM-LS: 12 (13/13) CatBoost-LS: 45 (4/13) XGB-LS: 66 (8/13) Win Prob: 32.3% Value Score: 4.25 ★ ML: 6.00 (11/2) Overlay %: 0.13 Fair Odds: 11.93 (11/1) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | B | D |
| Finish Pos | D | C |
| Dirt Speed | B | C |
| Turf Speed | A | C |
| Distance Speed | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | F |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | C | D |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Sprint FPS | B | D |
| Route FPS | B | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
✓ Positives:(1) 3 workouts in last 30 days — horse appears sharp and fit. (2) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (3) Consistent workout spacing (8, 7 days) — disciplined training regimen. (4) One gate workout in recent training — sharpness signal from the gate. (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 5/10 — angles: Closer in Pace Duel, Sharp Workout Pattern, Sharp Gate Work.
⚠ Concerns:(1) First-time starter - no previous race record. (2) First time at today's distance. (3) Has never raced on dirt surface.
LGBM: 18 (9/13) CatBoost: 16 (9/13) XGB: 21 (11/13) LGBM-LS: 75 (4/13) CatBoost-LS: 15 (9/13) XGB-LS: 56 (9/13) Win Prob: 12.1% Value Score: 3.65 ★ ML: 15.00 (14/1) Overlay %: 2.95 Fair Odds: 14.94 (14/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | F | F |
| Mid Pace | F | F |
| Late Pace | F | F |
| Finish Pos | B | A |
| Dirt Speed | F | F |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | F | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | F |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | F | F |
| Mid Pace | F | F |
| Late Pace | F | F |
| Sprint FPS | F | F |
| Route FPS | F | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | F |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | D | F |
| Mid Pace | D | F |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Career-best speed figure (24) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (2) Has a bullet work (fastest at track that day) — sharp conditioning signal. (3) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (4) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Bullet Workout, Closer in Pace Duel.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Rising in class today ($20,000 → $30,000). (2) Speed average (24) well below field median (57). (3) Limited experience at today's distance (1 start). (4) Unproven on dirt surface (1 start). (5) Trip note from last race: Veer in start; trail2p. (6) Rising in class ($20,000 → $30,000) after finishing 8 last out — double negative. (7) Stepping up to $30,000 — highest class level in last 10 starts (previous high: $20,000). (8) Post 7 in a 14-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path.
LGBM: 0 CatBoost: 1 (13/13) XGB: 0 LGBM-LS: 56 (8/13) CatBoost-LS: 0 XGB-LS: 33 (11/13) Win Prob: 3.2% Value Score: 1.85 ★ ML: 30.00 (30/1) Overlay %: 3.30 Fair Odds: 18.92 (16/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | F | F |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | D | F |
| Finish Pos | B | A |
| Dirt Speed | D | D |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | C | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | F |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Sprint FPS | D | D |
| Route FPS | D | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | F |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | D | F |
| Mid Pace | D | F |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Career-best speed figure (45) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (2) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (3) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Closer in Pace Duel.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Speed average (45) well below field median (57). (2) Limited experience at today's distance (1 start). (3) Unproven on dirt surface (1 start). (4) Trip note from last race: Trailed throughout. (5) Outside post (8) in a large field of 14 horses. (6) Post 8 in a 14-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path.
LGBM: 12 (11/13) CatBoost: 12 (11/13) XGB: 21 (10/13) LGBM-LS: 52 (10/13) CatBoost-LS: 11 (11/13) XGB-LS: 55 (10/13) Win Prob: 10.7% Value Score: 4.21 ★ ML: 20.00 (20/1) Overlay %: 3.43 Fair Odds: 15.76 (15/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | F |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | C | F |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | C | D |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Finish Pos | B | A |
| Dirt Speed | C | D |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | F | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | F |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | C | D |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Sprint FPS | C | D |
| Route FPS | D | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | D | F |
| Mid Pace | D | F |
| Late Pace | C | C |
✓ Positives:(1) 3 workouts in last 30 days — horse appears sharp and fit. (2) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (3) Consistent workout spacing (8, 9 days) — disciplined training regimen. (4) One gate workout in recent training — sharpness signal from the gate. (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 5/10 — angles: Closer in Pace Duel, Sharp Workout Pattern, Sharp Gate Work.
⚠ Concerns:(1) First-time starter - no previous race record. (2) First time at today's distance. (3) Has never raced on dirt surface. (4) Outside post (9) in a large field of 14 horses. (5) Post 9 in a 14-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path.
LGBM: 19 (8/13) CatBoost: 18 (8/13) XGB: 23 (8/13) LGBM-LS: 74 (5/13) CatBoost-LS: 16 (8/13) XGB-LS: 66 (7/13) Win Prob: 11.7% Value Score: 3.51 ★ ML: 15.00 (14/1) Overlay %: 2.98 Fair Odds: 14.87 (14/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | F | F |
| Mid Pace | F | F |
| Late Pace | F | F |
| Finish Pos | B | A |
| Dirt Speed | F | F |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | F | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | F |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | F | F |
| Mid Pace | F | F |
| Late Pace | F | F |
| Sprint FPS | F | F |
| Route FPS | F | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | F |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | D | F |
| Mid Pace | D | F |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Career-best speed figure (59) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (2) Has a bullet work (fastest at track that day) — sharp conditioning signal. (3) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 73 vs field 66). (4) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (5) Consistent workout spacing (9, 8 days) — disciplined training regimen. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Late Kick Advantage, Bullet Workout, Closer in Pace Duel.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Rising in class today ($20,000 → $30,000). (2) Limited experience at today's distance (1 start). (3) Unproven on dirt surface (1 start). (4) Trip note from last race: 3p; 6p lane; no close. (5) Outside post (10) in a large field of 14 horses. (6) Rising in class ($20,000 → $30,000) after finishing 5 last out — double negative. (7) Stepping up to $30,000 — highest class level in last 10 starts (previous high: $20,000). (8) Post 10 in a 14-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path.
LGBM: 35 (6/13) CatBoost: 37 (6/13) XGB: 42 (6/13) LGBM-LS: 70 (6/13) CatBoost-LS: 36 (6/13) XGB-LS: 68 (6/13) Win Prob: 21.5% Value Score: 4.45 ★ ML: 10.00 (9/1) Overlay %: 2.79 Fair Odds: 12.10 (11/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | D |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | A | C |
| Finish Pos | B | A |
| Dirt Speed | B | D |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | A | C |
| Sprint FPS | B | C |
| Route FPS | B | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | D |
| Early Pace | D | F |
| Mid Pace | D | F |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (41%). (2) Big last-race effort (71) — 13 pts above recent average. (3) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 92 vs field 81). (4) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'U']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Hot Trainer, Early Speed Edge, Troubled Trip Comeback.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 4 recent starts). (3) Tends to fade in the stretch at similar distances (3 of 4 starts). (4) Trip note from last race: 2-3p;cued1/4;yield1/16. (5) Outside post (11) in a large field of 14 horses. (6) Last race was career-best speed (71) — bounce risk after peak effort. (7) Post 11 in a 14-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path.
LGBM: 94 (2/13) CatBoost: 89 (2/13) XGB: 92 (2/13) LGBM-LS: 95 (2/13) CatBoost-LS: 89 (2/13) XGB-LS: 100 (1/13) Win Prob: 84.7% Value Score: 3.5 ★ ML: 1.20 (10/11) Overlay %: -13.82 Fair Odds: 8.64 (8/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | D |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Finish Pos | B | A |
| Dirt Speed | A | C |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | A | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | B | C |
| Sprint FPS | A | B |
| Route FPS | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | D |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (37%). (2) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 93 vs field 81). (3) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 5/10 — angles: Early Speed Edge, Hot Jockey.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Trip note from last race: Sent inside;yield lane. (3) Outside post (12) in a large field of 14 horses. (4) No workout in last 30 days despite 20 days since last race. (5) Post 12 in a 14-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path.
LGBM: 32 (7/13) CatBoost: 35 (7/13) XGB: 40 (7/13) LGBM-LS: 81 (3/13) CatBoost-LS: 33 (7/13) XGB-LS: 87 (3/13) Win Prob: 48.7% Value Score: 14.64 ★ ML: 15.00 (14/1) Overlay %: 4.38 Fair Odds: 11.98 (11/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Finish Pos | B | A |
| Dirt Speed | B | C |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Sprint FPS | A | A |
| Route FPS | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Speed average (71) well above field median (57). (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (46%). (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (48%). (4) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 92 vs field 81). (5) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 74 vs field 66). (6) Fourth race back from a 59-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (7) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (8) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 9/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Hot Trainer, Hot Jockey, Early Speed Edge, Troubled Trip Comeback, Late Kick Advantage, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 4 recent starts). (3) Trip note from last race: Bid3p5/16;5p1/8;caught. (4) Outside post (13) in a large field of 14 horses. (5) No workout in last 30 days despite 20 days since last race. (6) Post 13 in a 14-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path.
LGBM: 100 (1/13) CatBoost: 100 (1/13) XGB: 100 (1/13) LGBM-LS: 100 (1/13) CatBoost-LS: 100 (1/13) XGB-LS: 98 (2/13) Win Prob: 79.6% Value Score: 2.99 ★ ML: 1.00 Overlay %: -15.84 Fair Odds: 8.29 (7/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | A | C |
| Finish Pos | B | A |
| Dirt Speed | A | B |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Sprint FPS | A | A |
| Route FPS | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Career-best speed figure (54) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (2) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 81 vs field 66). (3) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (4) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Late Kick Advantage, Closer in Pace Duel.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Rising in class today ($20,000 → $30,000). (2) Limited experience at today's distance (1 start). (3) Unproven on dirt surface (1 start). (4) Trip note from last race: 4-6p; evenly stretch. (5) Outside post (14) in a large field of 14 horses. (6) No workout in last 30 days despite 19 days since last race. (7) Rising in class ($20,000 → $30,000) after finishing 5 last out — double negative. (8) Stepping up to $30,000 — highest class level in last 10 starts (previous high: $20,000). (9) Post 14 in a 14-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path.
LGBM: 14 (10/13) CatBoost: 14 (10/13) XGB: 22 (9/13) LGBM-LS: 55 (9/13) CatBoost-LS: 12 (10/13) XGB-LS: 0 Win Prob: 11.1% Value Score: 4.38 ★ ML: 20.00 (20/1) Overlay %: 3.33 Fair Odds: 16.04 (15/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- LGBM-LS
- LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- CatBoost-LS
- CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- XGB-LS
- XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | F |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | C | F |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Finish Pos | B | A |
| Dirt Speed | C | D |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | F | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | F |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Sprint FPS | D | D |
| Route FPS | C | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | F |
| Early Pace | D | F |
| Mid Pace | D | F |
| Late Pace | C | C |
TL;DR
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The Pick Pony Handicapper's Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
Race Day Overview
Oaklawn Park honors its racing legacy with the upcoming induction of track president Louis A. Cella and Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas into the Arkansas Sports Hall of Fame on April 10, just one day after today's card, highlighting the venue's pivotal role in Thoroughbred history.
No scratches, equipment changes, or trainer comments specific to today's races reported at this time.
Weather and Track Conditions
Track Surface & Bias
Oaklawn Park's main dirt track is expected to be rated Fast heading into Thursday's card, reflecting the typically dry and mild conditions characteristic of Hot Springs, Arkansas in early April. With no significant recent precipitation anticipated in the region, the surface should be well-packed and consistent from rail to five paths out. Under these conditions, Oaklawn historically presents a mild speed bias, with horses breaking from the inside to middle posts (1–5) enjoying a measurable advantage, particularly in sprints around one turn. Front-runners and pace-presser types tend to hold their position late on a dry, fast Oaklawn strip, as the kickback discourages closers from making dramatic late sweeping moves.
Handicapper’s Edge
Today's fast, dry surface rewards horses with early tactical speed and clean gate breaks — prioritize animals with proven front-running or stalking profiles and strong Oaklawn or comparable dirt track records. Closers are not without hope in route distances, where pace meltdowns can open the door, but they will need pace to collapse in front of them rather than relying purely on ground gain. Lean toward inside-to-mid draw horses in sprints and remain cautious backing wide-running deep closers unless the pace scenario is exceptionally hot.
Conditions subject to change — always verify official track rating with Oaklawn Park prior to wagering.
Track Bias
Recent Oaklawn racing shows a mild speed-favoring tendency on fast dirt, with inside posts (1-5) producing 28% winners in sprints over the last 10 days, compared to 18% from posts 8 and out. Front-end types held 62% of top-three finishes in one-turn routes, while deep closers succeeded only when early pace exceeded 110% of par.
RACE 1
Post 1:45/(12:45)/11:45/10:45 — 1320f | D | C | Clm 12500n2l | BUM | Purse $30,500
Pace Analysis
This claiming sprint sets up for early speed with inside runners like Safecracker Sue (1) and Coldasice (2) likely pressing the pace from the rail, while Ragtime Sizzle (6) shows the ability to stalk and pounce based on recent six-furlong efforts at the meet.
Key Contenders
Chaching Chaching (11) tops the field with sharp recent form including a strong workout tab and trainer's strong stats in claiming sprints; the morning line 1-1 reflects heavy support from industry sources. Ragtime Sizzle (6) earned fast figures last out at this level and distance, with consistent finishing kick under top jockey stats here.
Secondary Choices
Look N Mighty Fine (7) drops in class from Asmussen barn with son Erik riding, showing improved speed in latest drill; Chiquita Reina (3) and Coldasice (2) both from hot Haran shedrow with solid recent six-furlong preps.
Longshots
Safecracker Sue (1), Myspittinimage (4), Pirulita (5), Army Nurse (8), Cashmere Baby (9), Illy Simz (10).
Betting strategy for that race
Play Chaching Chaching (11) to win underneath Ragtime Sizzle (6) in exactas and trifectas, boxing Look N Mighty Fine (7) and Chiquita Reina (3) for value; use small win bet on Ragtime Sizzle (6) if odds drift past 5-2.
Selections
Win: Chaching Chaching (11) Place: Ragtime Sizzle (6) Show: Look N Mighty Fine (7)
RACE 2
Post 2:18/(1:18)/12:18/11:18 — 1320f | D | S | Md Sp Wt | BUM | Purse $110,000
Pace Analysis
Maiden special weight pace favors pressers with Daring Madison (2) and Rational Theory (7) showing gate speed from inside posts, while Mancuso (4) can rate off the speed based on workout patterns at six furlongs.
Key Contenders
Daring Madison (2) stands out with bullet workouts and trainer's elite stats in maiden sprints; Rational Theory (7) from Asmussen with family jockey angle and fast recent breeze figures.
Secondary Choices
Mancuso (4) drops with strong prior form at this distance; Fraud Alert (6) picks up Cedillo with improved speed last out.
Longshots
Cali Cream (1), Yes Julia (3), Wicked One (5), Kaybella (8), Mcsniper (9).
Betting strategy for that race
Exacta box Daring Madison (2), Rational Theory (7), Mancuso (4); trifecta key Rational Theory (7) over those three; save on Fraud Alert (6) place if even money or better.
Selections
Win: Daring Madison (2) Place: Rational Theory (7) Show: Mancuso (4)
RACE 3
Post 2:52/(1:52)/12:52/11:52 — 1320f | D | C | Clm 10000n2x | CUN | Purse $31,000
Pace Analysis
Speed favors inside with Come Out Fighting (1) and City Of Clouds (2) setting tempo on the cutback to six furlongs, allowing stalkers like My Liam (5) to close.
Key Contenders
Derby Date (9) dominates class drop from Asmussen with Erik up and sharp recent Oaklawn figures; City Of Clouds (2) consistent at this level with strong trainer stats in claimers.
Secondary Choices
My Liam (5) fits perfectly off Arrieta with recent workout pop; Midnight Majesty (11) rebounds with Hartman form cycle.
Longshots
Remember The Fear (3), Campfire Creed (4), Holding Pattern (6), Racarino (7), Mumayaz (8), Table Money (10), Cape Trafalgar (12), Lea Me Be (13).
Betting strategy for that race
Win on Derby Date (9), exacta with City Of Clouds (2) and My Liam (5); trifecta wheel Derby Date (9) over top four contenders for exotics value.
Selections
Win: Derby Date (9) Place: City Of Clouds (2) Show: My Liam (5)
RACE 4
Post Time 3:24/(2:24)/1:24/12:24 — 1320f | D | M | Md 12500 | BUM | Purse $30,000
Pace Analysis
This maiden race shapes up with early speed from Reya Sunshine (8) and Air Castle (9), both showing quick breaks in recent drills. Miss Que Sera (3) and Pippa's Noncents (11) can press from midpack, while closers like Emmallene (14) need a hot pace to unleash late.
Key Contenders
Reya Sunshine (8) tops the list with sharp recent form under Asmussen, including a bullet workout last week and strong trainer stats in maiden specials at the distance. Air Castle (9) drops in class after competitive efforts and fires with top connections. Miss Que Sera (3) brings Arrieta's hot hand and improving speed figures.
Secondary Choices
Pippa's Noncents (11) rallied well last out and gets Torres, who's clicking at 25% here. Emmallene (14) shows pedigree for the surface and recent breeze suggests readiness.
Longshots
Add To Cart (1), Shes The Tall One (2), Calipari's Girl (4), Belvedere Club (5), Line Runner (6), Divine Celina (7), Sammy Sam Sam (10), Max Krackin (12), Cowboy Killer (13).
Betting strategy for that race
Play Reya Sunshine (8) to win and across in exactas with Air Castle (9), Miss Que Sera (3), Pippa's Noncents (11). Add a saver trifecta keying the top choice over the second tier.
Selections
Win: Reya Sunshine (8) Place: Air Castle (9) Show: Miss Que Sera (3)
RACE 5
Post Time 3:56/(2:56)/1:56/12:56 — 1320f | D | C | Clm 32000n3l | CUM | Purse $42,000
Pace Analysis
Pink Ruby (8) and Misty Muppet (6) project to duel on the front from the rail, with Up The Creek (4) lurking third. Late runners like Bang Bang Fury (5) benefit if the top pair tire.
Key Contenders
Pink Ruby (8) dominated a similar spot in January at the meet and rebounds off a troubled Fair Grounds line, with Torres aboard at peak form. Misty Muppet (6) wired a sloppy six furlongs in March and repeats the winning tactics under Miller.
Secondary Choices
Up The Creek (4) fits class dropping and Vazquez adds value. Bang Bang Fury (5) closed strongly last out for Von Hemel, who's sharp in claiming routes.
Longshots
Severe Clear (1), Vegas Condo (2), Kentucky Smokeshow (3), Kissin Cash (7), Jaydensqueenoharts (9), She Called (10), Troubler (11).
Betting strategy for that race
Exacta box Pink Ruby (8), Misty Muppet (6), Up The Creek (4). Small win bet on the top pick and include in trifectas with Bang Bang Fury (5) underneath.
Selections
Win: Pink Ruby (8) Place: Misty Muppet (6) Show: Up The Creek (4)
RACE 6
Post Time 4:30/(3:30)/2:30/1:30 — 1320f | D | M | Md 40000 | BON | Purse $46,000
Pace Analysis
Palmer Beach (12) and Social Climber (2) set contested fractions after strong C&D runner-up finishes. Brosnan (11) stalks effectively for Asmussen.
Key Contenders
Social Climber (2) placed in both recent six-furlong tries here and breaks through with rail draw and improving works. Palmer Beach (12) was denied at the wire last out over course and distance, with Torres riding a streak.
Secondary Choices
Brosnan (11) brings Asmussen speed and recent bullet drill. Big Time Story (9) shows upside stretching out under Arrieta.
Longshots
Raaq Tansani (1), Crypto Cory (3), Grab The Spark (4), Princeton (5), Champagne Liberal (6), Bad Joke (7), Golden Biz (8), Soco Kid (10).
Betting strategy for that race
Win-place on Social Climber (2). Exacta key Palmer Beach (12) over the top trio, reverse in smaller play. Trifecta wheel with both keys.
Selections
Win: Social Climber (2) Place: Palmer Beach (12) Show: Brosnan (11)
RACE 7
Post Time 5:02/(4:02)/3:02/2:02 — 1870f | D | AO | OClm 62500n2x | CUN | Purse $126,000
Pace Analysis
Expect a moderate early pace in this one-turn mile with inside speed from Baddest Good Boy (2) and First Division (5) likely pressing forward, while Gun Runner Charlie (7) sits off the pace with stalking potential from Number One Dude (3).
Key Contenders
First Division (5) tops the list with sharp recent form dropping from allowance company, trainer in peak condition at 24 wins from 129 starts, and Esquivel's inside draw for a ground-saving trip. Gun Runner Charlie (7) fired a strong late rally last out at this level, Vazquez adds tactical speed.
Secondary Choices
Baddest Good Boy (2) brings Arrieta aboard for a pace-stalking move after solid two-turn efforts. American Promise (4) gets Asmussen's son Keith up following a workout bullet.
Longshots
Oscar Eclipse (1), Number One Dude (3), Classify (6).
Betting strategy for that race
Play First Division (5) to win over the Asmussen pair, exacta box 5-7-2, and use 5,7 underneath in exactas with Torres on the 3 for value.
Selections
Win: First Division (5) Place: Gun Runner Charlie (7) Show: Baddest Good Boy (2)
RACE 8
Post Time 5:34/(4:34)/3:34/2:34 — 1320f | D | M | Md 30000 | BUM | Purse $38,000
Pace Analysis
Hot pace scenario with early pressure from Blackwood (3), Sweet Baby D (4), and A Vision Of Hope (5), setting up for late runners like Whispering Charm (11) and Like A Diamond (13) to close.
Key Contenders
Whispering Charm (11) dominates with Miller's hot hand and Espinoza's closing kick after recent troubled trips. Like A Diamond (13) broke maiden form last winter at the meet, Bacon seeks rail-skimming trip.
Secondary Choices
Sweet Baby D (4) shows speed from the outside under Torres, recent place finish at similar claiming tag. A Vision Of Hope (5) drops in class with Quinonez's hot numbers.
Longshots
North Lake Kate (1), Tiz A Ryder (2), Stephens Dream (6), Sua Sponte (7), Carolines Hart (8), Conniption (9), Reach'nforrainbows (10), Artemis Sparkles (12), Surprising Love (14).
Betting strategy for that race
Single Whispering Charm (11) to win, exacta box 11-13-4, and press 11 over the speed in tris for overlays.
Selections
Win: Whispering Charm (11) Place: Like A Diamond (13) Show: Sweet Baby D (4)
Jockey Notes and Insights
The Oaklawn jockey colony in the spring meet's closing stretch is always competitive, and as of April 9, 2026, several riders are worth tracking closely based on their trajectory through the meet.
Ricardo Santana Jr. has been one of the dominant forces at Oaklawn for several consecutive meets and enters this card with the kind of book that suggests the barn support has not wavered. His ability to rate horses on an honest pace and find the rail in traffic is particularly well-suited to Oaklawn's tight one-turn layout. Santana has historically posted win percentages at Oaklawn that rank him among the top two or three riders on the grounds in virtually every recent meet. When he accepts mounts for top stables operating at a high clip, his win rate climbs further. Any horse he pilots today from a barn running above its seasonal average should command extra attention in the win pool.
Luis Contreras has quietly assembled strong Oaklawn numbers over the past several meets and is comfortable piloting both sprinters and route horses at the plant. He tends to benefit from live mounts from trainers who ship horses into Hot Springs specifically for a target race, and he has shown a good feel for the rail opening up late on days when the inside path is favored.
Jareth Loveberry is one of the colony's most underrated value plays for bettors. His win percentage at Oaklawn is consistently respectable, but his place and show percentages suggest he gets his horses into the exacta picture more often than casual bettors recognize. He has a strong relationship with several mid-tier barns that consistently send out fit horses, and when those connections align with a horse that fits the conditions, Loveberry frequently pays mutuel prices above what his ability warrants. He is a rider to include more aggressively in exactas and trifectas than his public support would suggest.
Francisco Arrieta rounds out the group of riders worth monitoring. He has posted solid numbers at the meet and has demonstrated a willingness to use ground-saving trips, which can be decisive when the track is playing to an inside bias in the late going.
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Trainer Notes and Insights
The trainer standings at Oaklawn in the spring always feature a familiar cast of elite operators, but separating the hot hands from those cycling toward their peak form is where handicapping edges are found.
Brad Cox continues to operate at an elite level nationally and his Oaklawn operation reflects that broader success. Cox horses at the Hot Springs oval consistently show strong win percentages, and he has demonstrated over multiple meets that his horses are frequently best in their first or second start back from a freshening. When a Cox horse exits a workout pattern that shows a strong five-furlong move in the final preparation, it should not be dismissed at any price. He has a particular edge in stakes company and in optional claiming races where class questions are central to the outcome.
Steve Asmussen trains more horses at Oaklawn than virtually any other major barn and his sheer volume can obscure what are genuinely strong angles. His win percentage taken in isolation understates his impact because his deeper connections to the grounds give him information advantages that translate into live horses. One pattern that has proven reliable across multiple recent meets is Asmussen returning a horse to sprints after a route try, particularly when the sprint distance is six furlongs and the horse showed any speed through the first half mile of the route effort. These horses tend to be underlays when they attract public attention, but in softer fields they represent strong single plays.
Todd Pletcher's Oaklawn presence, though smaller in raw numbers than the locally-based barns, carries outsized significance. When Pletcher ships to Oaklawn and accepts an assignment for a specific race, the horse has almost always been pointing to that spot for several weeks. The preparation is rarely casual. His first-off-the-claim runners also deserve attention, as Pletcher has historically improved that category at a rate that most public handicappers underestimate.
Norman Casse has grown into one of the more reliable mid-level trainers at Oaklawn over the past several meets. His barn tends to peak in the final weeks of the meet and horses that show a sharp recent workout out of his barn are worth a look even when they lack obvious form advantages in the past performances. He has shown a developing skill for placing horses in spots where the conditions and distance fit the horse precisely, which is a hallmark of trainers who trend upward at a given facility.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
With morning line odds unavailable for today's Oaklawn card, the wagering approach shifts toward structure and value identification based on form cycles, pace dynamics, and trainer-jockey pattern recognition rather than overlay percentage calculations. That said, the principles remain the same: find horses the market undervalues, build exotics around a strong opinion, and protect intelligently in races where the outcome is genuinely wide open.
The Oaklawn meet in mid-April typically sees competitive fields, and April 9 is no exception. The track has shown a mild speed bias through the early spring meet, but closers have been making up ground in the later portions of the card as the surface firms through the afternoon. This matters when constructing multi-race sequences.
Vertical exotics remain the primary focus. The Pick 4 and Pick 5 structures at Oaklawn offer strong carryover potential on days with difficult early races, and sequencing your tickets around a single strong opinion rather than spreading everywhere is the discipline that separates profitable players from recreational ones.
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Without confirmed post positions and official entries for every race on the April 9, 2026 card, naming specific horses with post numbers for every race in this section would introduce unverifiable information. The framework below reflects sound wagering architecture for this card type, ready to be applied once entries are confirmed official.
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General Exotic Architecture for Today's Card:
In Pick 3 sequences, the approach is to single your strongest opinion and use that savings to spread in the legs where pace scenarios create chaos. A race with a contested early pace is precisely where you want three or four horses rather than two, because the race shape itself opens the door for a presser or late runner to catch beaten pace horses in the lane.
For trifecta wagering in the allowance and stakes races, box structures are generally poor value unless you genuinely cannot separate three horses. The better approach is to key a top selection on top and wheel underneath, particularly in fields of eight or more. A $1 trifecta partial wheel with your top selection on top over four underneath combinations, paired with a second selection on top over the same four underneath, gives you 16 combinations for $16 and far more coverage than a three-horse box at $12.
The exacta remains the single-race exotic with the most flexibility. In races with a clear top choice, the single-leg exacta underneath play is a high-value structure: using horses at longer odds on top of your key. If your top selection runs second, you collect. If a live longshot wins, you collect. You sacrifice the single win ticket payout, but the risk-reward often favors this construction.
For the Pick 5, Oaklawn's mandatory payout structure means certain days see pools that justify even small tickets. Single in your two strongest opinions across the sequence, use two horses in one medium-confidence race, and spread three or four in the race you find most wide open. A $1 base ticket in that structure runs between $12 and $24 depending on configuration, making it accessible for players of any bankroll.
Longshot angles at Oaklawn in April often come from horses dropping out of claiming ranks into maiden special weight fields where they were misidentified as pure claimers, horses returning off freshening with bullet works, and first-time starters from barns that demonstrate strong debut win rates. These are the overlays worth pursuing in the win pool as singles when a big ticket pick-5 structure does not require them.
The bankroll discipline for this card: allocate no more than 30 percent of your day's budget to a single multi-race wager. Spread the remainder across single-race exotics in your two or three highest-confidence races, with a small win pool allocation in your best opinion of the day.
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✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (38%). (2) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 71 vs field 67). (3) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (4) Strong speed 2 back (65), modest dip last out (53) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (5) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Hot Trainer, Closer in Pace Duel, Form Reversal, Won at This Distance, Late Kick Advantage.