Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Charles Town, October 17, 2025

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Pick Pony AI Algorithm Picks

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Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

Algorithm 1 (Stronger influence on proprietary AI and overall pace)

 
Race 1
Win: 4 – The Commish (3/5)
Place: 1 – Go Long (6/1)
Show: 2 – Chapin Eleven (8/1)
Other contenders: 6 – Gallant Creek (4/1), 3 – Cajunchito (10/1)
 
Race 2
Win: 5 – Candy Man Can (4/5)
Place: 4 – Denizetti (12/1)
Show: 3 – Roark (4/1)
Other contenders: 1 – Jack’S Aloha (9/2), 2 – Funkle (15/1)
 
Race 3
Win: 1 – Fashion Victim (4/5)
Place: 6 – Fifth Of June (15/1)
Show: 4 – Suzies Pride (12/1)
Other contenders: 5 – Innocent Nyght (2/1), 3 – Double Spirit (9/2)
 
Race 4
Win: 7 – Lady Serenity (9/5)
Place: 1 – Forgotten Gift (5/1)
Show: 6 – Rainbowsnsunshine (10/1)
Other contenders: 5 – Lemorian (9/2), 3 – Cherokee Castle (7/2)
 
Race 5
Win: 3 – Eyesonthecandy (3/1)
Place: 1 – Golden Plunge (12/1)
Show: 5 – Runaway Gold (9/2)
Other contenders: 7 – Kaylee’S Fireball (15/1), 4 – Fancy Conchita (5/2)
 
Race 6
Win: 5 – Cuddler (3/5)
Place: 1 – Sonde Tails (9/2)
Show: 3 – Keep On Praying (20/1)
Other contenders: 2 – Breadman’Shoneybun (6/1), 6 – Hey Nigh Teen (5/1)
 
Race 7
Win: 3 – Kluvyameanandnasty (15/1)
Place: 7 – Amalfi Sunset (10/1)
Show: 5 – Ran The Red (6/1)
Other contenders: 1 – Dreamy Sonde (9/2), 6 – Caribbean Comedy (7/5)
 
Race 8
Win: 3 – Melancia (9/5)
Place: 5 – Frosty Maya (10/1)
Show: 7 – Queen Jelly Bean (12/1)
Other contenders: 1 – Can I Get Awitness (4/1), 6 – Centimorgan (12/1), 4 – Tina Tina Tina (20/1)
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 4, FPS: 10, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Overall Pace: 400, Early Pace: 30, Mid Pace: 30, Late Pace: 30, Post Position: 5, PPPP Rating: 10, Average Finish: 5, Days Since Last Race: 15, Jockey: 10, Trainer: 20, Track Bias: 20, Morning Line: 10, Pedigree: 15, Works: 15, Weight: 5, Medications: 5, Weather: 5, Race Trouble: 35, Last Race: 4, Last Three Races: 8, All Races: 2, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 500,

Algorithm 2 (Stronger influence on speed, overall pace, trainer, with moderate influence from proprietary AI)

 
Race 1
Win: 4 – The Commish (3/5)
Place: 1 – Go Long (6/1)
Show: 2 – Chapin Eleven (8/1)
Other contenders: 6 – Gallant Creek (4/1), 3 – Cajunchito (10/1)
 
Race 2
Win: 5 – Candy Man Can (4/5)
Place: 4 – Denizetti (12/1)
Show: 3 – Roark (4/1)
Other contenders: 1 – Jack’S Aloha (9/2), 2 – Funkle (15/1)
 
Race 3
Win: 1 – Fashion Victim (4/5)
Place: 6 – Fifth Of June (15/1)
Show: 4 – Suzies Pride (12/1)
Other contenders: 5 – Innocent Nyght (2/1), 3 – Double Spirit (9/2)
 
Race 4
Win: 7 – Lady Serenity (9/5)
Place: 1 – Forgotten Gift (5/1)
Show: 6 – Rainbowsnsunshine (10/1)
Other contenders: 5 – Lemorian (9/2), 3 – Cherokee Castle (7/2)
 
Race 5
Win: 3 – Eyesonthecandy (3/1)
Place: 1 – Golden Plunge (12/1)
Show: 5 – Runaway Gold (9/2)
Other contenders: 4 – Fancy Conchita (5/2), 7 – Kaylee’S Fireball (15/1)
 
Race 6
Win: 5 – Cuddler (3/5)
Place: 1 – Sonde Tails (9/2)
Show: 3 – Keep On Praying (20/1)
Other contenders: 6 – Hey Nigh Teen (5/1), 2 – Breadman’Shoneybun (6/1)
 
Race 7
Win: 7 – Amalfi Sunset (10/1)
Place: 5 – Ran The Red (6/1)
Show: 3 – Kluvyameanandnasty (15/1)
Other contenders: 1 – Dreamy Sonde (9/2), 6 – Caribbean Comedy (7/5)
 
Race 8
Win: 3 – Melancia (9/5)
Place: 5 – Frosty Maya (10/1)
Show: 7 – Queen Jelly Bean (12/1)
Other contenders: 1 – Can I Get Awitness (4/1), 6 – Centimorgan (12/1), 8 – Chase By The Moon (10/1)
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 60, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 15, FPS Late: 15, Overall Pace: 300, Early Pace: 1, Mid Pace: 1, Late Pace: 1, Post Position: 5, PPPP Rating: 20, Average Finish: 5, Days Since Last Race: 15, Jockey: 10, Trainer: 90, Track Bias: 20, Morning Line: 10, Pedigree: 15, Works: 15, Weight: 5, Medications: 5, Weather: 5, Race Trouble: 25, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 5, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 250,

Algorithm 3 (Stronger influence on pace, track bias, trainer)

 
Race 1
Win: 4 – The Commish (3/5)
Place: 1 – Go Long (6/1)
Show: 2 – Chapin Eleven (8/1)
Other contenders: 6 – Gallant Creek (4/1), 7 – Janes Jensen (20/1)
 
Race 2
Win: 5 – Candy Man Can (4/5)
Place: 4 – Denizetti (12/1)
Show: 3 – Roark (4/1)
Other contenders: 1 – Jack’S Aloha (9/2), 2 – Funkle (15/1)
 
Race 3
Win: 1 – Fashion Victim (4/5)
Place: 6 – Fifth Of June (15/1)
Show: 4 – Suzies Pride (12/1)
Other contenders: 5 – Innocent Nyght (2/1), 3 – Double Spirit (9/2)
 
Race 4
Win: 7 – Lady Serenity (9/5)
Place: 6 – Rainbowsnsunshine (10/1)
Show: 1 – Forgotten Gift (5/1)
Other contenders: 5 – Lemorian (9/2), 3 – Cherokee Castle (7/2)
 
Race 5
Win: 3 – Eyesonthecandy (3/1)
Place: 1 – Golden Plunge (12/1)
Show: 7 – Kaylee’S Fireball (15/1)
Other contenders: 5 – Runaway Gold (9/2), 4 – Fancy Conchita (5/2)
 
Race 6
Win: 5 – Cuddler (3/5)
Place: 1 – Sonde Tails (9/2)
Show: 3 – Keep On Praying (20/1)
Other contenders: 2 – Breadman’Shoneybun (6/1), 4 – I’D Rather Not (15/1)
 
Race 7
Win: 3 – Kluvyameanandnasty (15/1)
Place: 7 – Amalfi Sunset (10/1)
Show: 5 – Ran The Red (6/1)
Other contenders: 1 – Dreamy Sonde (9/2), 6 – Caribbean Comedy (7/5)
 
Race 8
Win: 3 – Melancia (9/5)
Place: 5 – Frosty Maya (10/1)
Show: 7 – Queen Jelly Bean (12/1)
Other contenders: 1 – Can I Get Awitness (4/1), 8 – Chase By The Moon (10/1), 4 – Tina Tina Tina (20/1)
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 50, FPS: 24, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 15, Overall Pace: 300, Early Pace: 3, Mid Pace: 1, Late Pace: 1, Post Position: 5, PPPP Rating: 10, Average Finish: 5, Days Since Last Race: 15, Jockey: 10, Trainer: 20, Track Bias: 20, Morning Line: 10, Pedigree: 15, Works: 15, Weight: 5, Medications: 5, Weather: 5, Race Trouble: 35, Last Race: 3, Last Three Races: 4, All Races: 2, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 30,

Race Entries

AMALFI SUNSET BREADMAN’SHONEYBUN CAJUN PRIME CAJUNCHITO CAN I GET AWITNESS
CARIBBEAN COMEDY CEDAR’S ESTATE CENTIMORGAN CHAMPAGNE PLEASE CHAPIN ELEVEN
CHEROKEE CASTLE CUDDLER DENIZETTI DOUBLE SPIRIT DREAMY SONDE
FANCY CONCHITA FASHION VICTIM FIFTH OF JUNE FORGOTTEN GIFT FROSTY MAYA
GALLANT CREEK GO LONG GOLDEN PLUNGE HEY NIGH TEEN I’D RATHER NOT
JACK’S ALOHA JANES JENSEN KAYLEE’S FIREBALL KEEP ON PRAYING KLUVYAMEANANDNASTY
LEMORIAN LET’S GO MO MELANCIA MISS MENETES PEGGY’S WAY
QUEEN JELLY BEAN RAINBOWSNSUNSHINE RAN THE RED RIVER REWARDS RVF ROARK
SONDE TAILS STOLEN SECRETS SUZIES PRIDE TAP THE ARCHES TESORO ROSSA
TINA TINA TINA VERDI’S SURPRISE

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