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AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 56-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (55%). (3) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 5 wins from 17 starts (29%). (4) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (53%). (5) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 88 vs field 80). (6) Has won at today's distance (1760 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (7) Has won at AQU on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (8) Trainer 'RICE LINDA' has 5 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Hot Trainer, Won Here Before, Hot Jockey, Early Speed Edge, Won at This Distance, Stable on Fire.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 56 days. (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Speed average (71) well below field median (78). (4) Trip note from last race: Brush gate; 3-4w turns. (5) Stepping up to $50,000 — highest class level in last 10 starts (previous high: $20,000). (6) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 16.9 pts: [65, 83, 87, 77, 45]) — unpredictable performer.

Mod1(W): 100 (1/5) Mod2(W): 100 (1/5) Mod3(W): 100 (1/5) Mod1-LS: 100 (1/5) Mod2-LS: 100 (2/5) Mod3-LS: 100 (1/5) Win Prob: 67.3% Value Score: 2.21 ★ ML: 1.60 (9/5) Overlay %: -9.14 Fair Odds: 3.71 (7/2) O/U: Underlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	F	C
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	F	D
Finish Pos	B	B
Dirt Speed	B	A
Turf Speed	D	D
Distance Speed	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	A
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	B
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	F	D
Sprint FPS	A	B
Route FPS	B	B
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	A
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	F	C
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	C

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AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 85 vs field 79). (2) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (3) Has won at today's distance (1760 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (4) Carries 7 lbs less than field median (119 lbs vs median 126 lbs). (5) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['L', 'T']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Closer in Pace Duel, Troubled Trip Comeback, Late Kick Advantage, Won at This Distance, Weight Advantage.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Moving from a sprint to a route today. (2) Trip note from last race: 2-4p trn;5p1/4;willing. (3) Consistently runs wide at the first call (3 of last 5 starts). (4) Has not won in last 10 starts despite career wins.

Mod1(W): 44 (5/5) Mod2(W): 32 (5/5) Mod3(W): 16 (5/5) Mod1-LS: 30 (5/5) Mod2-LS: 38 (5/5) Mod3-LS: 0 Win Prob: 26% Value Score: 2.97 ★ ML: 8.00 (7/1) Overlay %: 4.30 Fair Odds: 6.65 (6/1) O/U: Overlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	D	F
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	F	C
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	A	A
Finish Pos	F	D
Dirt Speed	A	A
Turf Speed	A	A
Distance Speed	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	D	D
Jockey Effectiveness	F	D
3rd Party Ratings	C	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	D	C
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	A	A
Sprint FPS	F	D
Route FPS	F	D
Trainer Effectiveness	D	D
Jockey Effectiveness	F	D
3rd Party Ratings	C	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	F	D
Mid Pace	F	D
Late Pace	C	C

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AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 3 wins from 7 starts (43%). (2) Won last 2 consecutive starts. (3) Track specialist — 4 wins from 8 starts here (50%). (4) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (5) Has won at today's distance (1760 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (6) Has won at AQU on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (7) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'O', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 1st — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (8) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 9/10 — angles: Win Streak Momentum, Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Closer in Pace Duel, Troubled Trip Comeback, Track Specialist, Won Here Before, Won at This Distance.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Rising in class today ($20,000 → $50,000). (2) Trip note from last race: Came out; edged away. (3) Last race was career-best speed (84) — bounce risk after peak effort. (4) Stepping up to $50,000 — highest class level in last 10 starts (previous high: $20,000). (5) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 9.8 pts: [84, 82, 63, 84, 69]) — unpredictable performer.

Mod1(W): 94 (3/5) Mod2(W): 70 (4/5) Mod3(W): 65 (4/5) Mod1-LS: 71 (3/5) Mod2-LS: 74 (3/5) Mod3-LS: 32 (3/5) Win Prob: 56.1% Value Score: 3.55 ★ ML: 4.00 (7/2) Overlay %: 3.14 Fair Odds: 4.28 (7/2) O/U: Fair

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	C	B
Early Pace	B	C
Mid Pace	D	B
Late Pace	B	B
Finish Pos	A	B
Dirt Speed	C	B
Turf Speed	D	D
Distance Speed	B	A
Trainer Effectiveness	B	A
Jockey Effectiveness	C	A
3rd Party Ratings	B	A
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	B
Early Pace	C	C
Mid Pace	D	C
Late Pace	C	B
Sprint FPS	C	C
Route FPS	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	B	A
Jockey Effectiveness	C	A
3rd Party Ratings	B	A
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	B
Early Pace	C	C
Mid Pace	B	B
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 8 wins from 23 starts (35%). (2) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (50%). (3) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (4) Has won at today's distance (1760 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (5) Has won at AQU on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (6) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'O', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 1st — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (7) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Closer in Pace Duel, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won Here Before, Hot Jockey, Won at This Distance.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Trip note from last race: Rated;2w;cut corner.

Mod1(W): 91 (4/5) Mod2(W): 74 (3/5) Mod3(W): 65 (3/5) Mod1-LS: 50 (4/5) Mod2-LS: 65 (4/5) Mod3-LS: 9 (4/5) Win Prob: 67.5% Value Score: 2.99 ★ ML: 2.50 (9/5) Overlay %: -3.81 Fair Odds: 4.33 (7/2) O/U: Fair

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	D	C
Mid Pace	D	B
Late Pace	A	A
Finish Pos	C	C
Dirt Speed	F	B
Turf Speed	A	A
Distance Speed	C	A
Trainer Effectiveness	C	B
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	D	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	D	B
Early Pace	F	D
Mid Pace	F	C
Late Pace	A	A
Sprint FPS	D	C
Route FPS	D	B
Trainer Effectiveness	C	B
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	D	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	D	C
Mid Pace	D	C
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Big last-race effort (80) — 16 pts above recent average. (2) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (3) Has won at AQU on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (4) Carries 7 lbs less than field median (119 lbs vs median 126 lbs). (5) Trainer 'JIMENEZ JOSE L' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (6) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'L', 'S', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 1st — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (7) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won Here Before, Won at This Distance, Stable on Fire, Weight Advantage.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Rising in class today ($20,000 → $30,000). (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Trip note from last race: Bumped st; edged clear. (4) Last race was career-best speed (80) — bounce risk after peak effort. (5) No workout in last 30 days despite 21 days since last race. (6) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 14.0 pts: [80, 83, 52, 57, 75]) — unpredictable performer.

Mod1(W): 61 (3/5) Mod2(W): 73 (4/5) Mod3(W): 100 (1/5) Mod1-LS: 62 (4/5) Mod2-LS: 72 (4/5) Mod3-LS: 98 (2/5) Win Prob: 51.2% Value Score: 3.62 ★ ML: 4.50 (7/2) Overlay %: 3.83 Fair Odds: 4.57 (9/2) O/U: Overlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	D	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	C	C
Early Pace	C	A
Mid Pace	C	A
Late Pace	C	D
Finish Pos	A	C
Dirt Speed	D	B
Turf Speed	B	B
Distance Speed	D	B
Trainer Effectiveness	C	D
Jockey Effectiveness	D	D
3rd Party Ratings	C	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	C
Early Pace	B	A
Mid Pace	B	A
Late Pace	F	D
Sprint FPS	A	A
Route FPS	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	C	D
Jockey Effectiveness	D	D
3rd Party Ratings	C	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	C
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	C	A
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 49-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 49 days. (2) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 7 recent starts). (3) Trip note from last race: Wellback 4p;8p stretch. (4) Consistently breaks behind post position (3 of last 5 starts). (5) Consistently runs wide at the first call (4 of last 5 starts). (6) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 8.7 pts: [77, 78, 76, 83, 60]) — unpredictable performer.

Mod1(W): 21 (9/9) Mod2(W): 12 (9/9) Mod3(W): 3 (9/9) Mod1-LS: 89 (8/9) Mod2-LS: 15 (9/9) Mod3-LS: 17 (8/9) Win Prob: 15.1% Value Score: 3.44 ★ ML: 15.00 (14/1) Overlay %: 3.63 Fair Odds: 11.48 (10/1) O/U: Overlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — OP

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — OP

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	C	D
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	D	C
Early Pace	D	D
Mid Pace	D	C
Late Pace	B	B
Finish Pos	C	D
Dirt Speed	C	B
Turf Speed	D	C
Distance Speed	F	B
Trainer Effectiveness	D	D
Jockey Effectiveness	F	D
3rd Party Ratings	C	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	B
Early Pace	B	D
Mid Pace	B	C
Late Pace	A	A
Sprint FPS	D	D
Route FPS	C	B
Trainer Effectiveness	D	D
Jockey Effectiveness	F	D
3rd Party Ratings	C	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	D	C
Early Pace	D	D
Mid Pace	D	C
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 43-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (55%). (3) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 5 wins from 17 starts (29%). (4) Big last-race effort (73) — 12 pts above recent average. (5) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (53%). (6) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (7) Fourth race back from a 102-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (8) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (9) Dropping in class ($30,000 vs last $50,000) after a 43-day freshening — trainer setup-for-win angle. (10) Trainer 'RICE LINDA' has 5 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (11) Career-best figure (85) buried in races 4–10 back — 15 pts above race median and 7 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (12) Averages 75.0 speed pts in today's distance/surface configuration vs 64.5 in other configs (4 qualifying starts) — returning to ideal setup. (13) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Class Drop After Rest, Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Hot Trainer, Closer in Pace Duel, Won at This Distance, Hidden Figure, Hot Jockey, Return to Proven Setup, Stable on Fire, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 43 days. (2) Speed average (59) well below field median (70). (3) Trip note from last race: 3path turn;no threat.

Mod1(W): 43 (5/5) Mod2(W): 56 (5/5) Mod3(W): 74 (5/5) Mod1-LS: 0 Mod2-LS: 48 (5/5) Mod3-LS: 100 (1/5) Win Prob: 56.8% Value Score: 3.29 ★ ML: 3.50 (5/2) Overlay %: -1.03 Fair Odds: 5.16 (9/2) O/U: Fair

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	C	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	D	D
Early Pace	F	C
Mid Pace	B	A
Late Pace	B	C
Finish Pos	D	F
Dirt Speed	C	A
Turf Speed	C	C
Distance Speed	C	B
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	F	D
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	F	F
Early Pace	F	D
Mid Pace	D	A
Late Pace	A	C
Sprint FPS	F	D
Route FPS	F	D
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	F	D
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	D	D
Early Pace	F	C
Mid Pace	D	A
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 48-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Big last-race effort (77) — 13 pts above recent average. (3) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 93 vs field 90). (4) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (5) Returning from 48-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot. (6) Career-best figure (87) buried in races 4–10 back — 17 pts above race median and 10 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (7) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'T']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (8) Averages 76.2 speed pts in today's distance/surface configuration vs 61.5 in other configs (5 qualifying starts) — returning to ideal setup. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Troubled Trip Comeback, Return to Proven Setup, Hidden Figure, Sharp Return Workout, Early Speed Edge, Won at This Distance.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 48 days. (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) 0 wins from 4 career starts on off tracks. (4) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 5 starts). (5) Tends to fade in the stretch at similar distances (7 of 8 starts). (6) Trip note from last race: In hand 2p; wknd late. (7) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 12.0 pts: [77, 72, 72, 47, 73]) — unpredictable performer.

Mod1(W): 62 (2/5) Mod2(W): 81 (3/5) Mod3(W): 97 (2/5) Mod1-LS: 71 (3/5) Mod2-LS: 78 (3/5) Mod3-LS: 0 Win Prob: 54.3% Value Score: 2.79 ★ ML: 3.00 (5/2) Overlay %: -0.39 Fair Odds: 4.25 (7/2) O/U: Fair

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	B	C
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	F	D
Finish Pos	F	F
Dirt Speed	B	A
Turf Speed	A	B
Distance Speed	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	D	D
Jockey Effectiveness	C	C
3rd Party Ratings	B	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	D	D
Sprint FPS	A	A
Route FPS	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	D	D
Jockey Effectiveness	C	C
3rd Party Ratings	B	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	C
Early Pace	C	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 41-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Speed average (75) well above field median (70). (3) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (53%). (4) 3 workouts in last 30 days — horse appears sharp and fit. (5) Has a bullet work (fastest at track that day) — sharp conditioning signal. (6) Fourth race back from a 54-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (7) Consistent workout spacing (7, 7 days) — disciplined training regimen. (8) Dropping in class ($30,000 vs last $50,000) after a 41-day freshening — trainer setup-for-win angle. (9) Returning from 41-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot. (10) Career-best figure (88) buried in races 4–10 back — 18 pts above race median and 5 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (11) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Class Drop After Rest, Hot Trainer, Bullet Workout, Hidden Figure, Sharp Return Workout, Sharp Workout Pattern, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 41 days. (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 10 recent starts). (4) Trip note from last race: Outside;4p turn;empty. (5) Was the betting favorite in the last race but finished off the board. (6) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 12.2 pts: [57, 77, 83, 83, 88]) — unpredictable performer. (7) 0 wins from 8 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.

Mod1(W): 52 (4/5) Mod2(W): 93 (2/5) Mod3(W): 91 (4/5) Mod1-LS: 100 (1/5) Mod2-LS: 100 (1/5) Mod3-LS: 89 (3/5) Win Prob: 71.4% Value Score: 2.75 ★ ML: 2.00 (9/5) Overlay %: -8.32 Fair Odds: 4.68 (9/2) O/U: Underlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	A	C
Finish Pos	A	C
Dirt Speed	A	A
Turf Speed	A	A
Distance Speed	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	B	C
3rd Party Ratings	A	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	C
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	D
Sprint FPS	B	B
Route FPS	B	C
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	B	C
3rd Party Ratings	A	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Fourth race back from a 74-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (2) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (3) Has won at AQU on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (4) Averages 73.0 speed pts in today's distance/surface configuration vs 63.9 in other configs (3 qualifying starts) — returning to ideal setup. (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 5/10 — angles: Won at This Distance, Won Here Before, Return to Proven Setup, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Speed average (67) well below field median (74). (2) Moving from a route to a sprint today. (3) 0 wins from 4 career starts on off tracks. (4) Trip note from last race: 4-5w upper; wknd late. (5) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 10.6 pts: [66, 79, 51, 66, 74]) — unpredictable performer.

Mod1(W): 33 (5/5) Mod2(W): 43 (5/5) Mod3(W): 42 (5/5) Mod1-LS: 48 (5/5) Mod2-LS: 40 (5/5) Mod3-LS: 68 (5/5) Win Prob: 27% Value Score: 3.12 ★ ML: 8.00 (7/1) Overlay %: 5.00 Fair Odds: 6.31 (11/2) O/U: Overlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	D	D
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	D	C
Early Pace	F	D
Mid Pace	F	C
Late Pace	F	C
Finish Pos	B	C
Dirt Speed	D	B
Turf Speed	C	B
Distance Speed	B	B
Trainer Effectiveness	B	B
Jockey Effectiveness	B	A
3rd Party Ratings	D	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	D
Early Pace	F	C
Mid Pace	D	C
Late Pace	C	D
Sprint FPS	D	C
Route FPS	D	D
Trainer Effectiveness	B	B
Jockey Effectiveness	B	A
3rd Party Ratings	D	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	D	C
Early Pace	F	C
Mid Pace	F	C
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Strong speed 2 back (79), modest dip last out (70) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (2) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (3) Outstanding wet-track record: 2W from 6 starts (33%) — thrives when the going is off. (4) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 5/10 — angles: Off-Track Ace, Form Reversal, Won at This Distance.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Trip note from last race: In hand 2p; tired. (2) Has not won in last 10 starts despite career wins. (3) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 14.7 pts: [70, 79, 44, 78, 77]) — unpredictable performer.

Mod1(W): 75 (2/5) Mod2(W): 77 (2/5) Mod3(W): 93 (2/5) Mod1-LS: 69 (2/5) Mod2-LS: 81 (2/5) Mod3-LS: 70 (4/5) Win Prob: 71.1% Value Score: 2.73 ★ ML: 2.00 (9/5) Overlay %: -6.75 Fair Odds: 4.19 (7/2) O/U: Underlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	C	C
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	A	B
Finish Pos	C	D
Dirt Speed	A	A
Turf Speed	F	C
Distance Speed	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	C	B
Jockey Effectiveness	D	D
3rd Party Ratings	B	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	D
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	B	B
Late Pace	B	D
Sprint FPS	C	B
Route FPS	B	C
Trainer Effectiveness	C	B
Jockey Effectiveness	D	D
3rd Party Ratings	B	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	C
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($25,000 → $17,500). (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (60%). (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (50%). (4) Has a bullet work (fastest at track that day) — sharp conditioning signal. (5) One gate workout in recent training — sharpness signal from the gate. (6) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (7) Career-best figure (88) buried in races 4–10 back — 14 pts above race median and 13 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (8) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'F', 'L', 'S']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Hot Trainer, Troubled Trip Comeback, Class Drop, Bullet Workout, Hidden Figure, Hot Jockey, Won at This Distance, Sharp Gate Work.

⚠ Concerns:(1) 0 wins from 4 career starts on off tracks. (2) Trip note from last race: Ins; yield5/16; faded. (3) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 14.2 pts: [68, 49, 75, 88, 74]) — unpredictable performer. (4) First start at AQU — never raced here before (last seen at: PEN, PRX, LRL).

Mod1(W): 71 (4/5) Mod2(W): 74 (4/5) Mod3(W): 73 (3/5) Mod1-LS: 57 (4/5) Mod2-LS: 68 (4/5) Mod3-LS: 76 (2/5) Win Prob: 59.4% Value Score: 4.18 ★ ML: 4.50 (7/2) Overlay %: 4.11 Fair Odds: 4.46 (7/2) O/U: Overlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	C	B
Mid Pace	B	A
Late Pace	C	C
Finish Pos	A	B
Dirt Speed	A	A
Turf Speed	D	C
Distance Speed	F	B
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	C	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	D	D
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	D	D
Sprint FPS	B	B
Route FPS	A	C
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	C	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	C	B
Mid Pace	B	A
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($30,000 → $17,500). (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (55%). (3) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 5 wins from 17 starts (29%). (4) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (53%). (5) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 92 vs field 87). (6) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (7) Has won at AQU on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (8) Trainer 'RICE LINDA' has 5 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (9) Career-best figure (84) buried in races 4–10 back — 10 pts above race median and 9 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (10) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 9/10 — angles: Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Hot Trainer, Won Here Before, Class Drop, Hidden Figure, Hot Jockey, Early Speed Edge, Won at This Distance, Stable on Fire.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Tends to fade in the stretch at similar distances (6 of 10 starts). (2) Trip note from last race: Chased;2p turn;tired.

Mod1(W): 100 (1/5) Mod2(W): 100 (1/5) Mod3(W): 100 (1/5) Mod1-LS: 100 (1/5) Mod2-LS: 100 (1/5) Mod3-LS: 100 (1/5) Win Prob: 83.5% Value Score: 2.78 ★ ML: 1.60 (9/5) Overlay %: -9.39 Fair Odds: 3.85 (7/2) O/U: Underlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	A	B
Finish Pos	F	D
Dirt Speed	B	B
Turf Speed	A	A
Distance Speed	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	A	C
Sprint FPS	A	B
Route FPS	C	C
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 65-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (39%). (3) Career-best speed figure (69) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (4) Equipment change today (code: 1). (5) 3 workouts in last 30 days — horse appears sharp and fit. (6) Strong speed 2 back (69), modest dip last out (61) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (7) Consistent workout spacing (8, 8 days) — disciplined training regimen. (8) Dropping in class ($12,500 vs last $50,000) after a 65-day freshening — trainer setup-for-win angle. (9) Carries 6 lbs less than field median (120 lbs vs median 126 lbs). (10) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Class Drop After Rest, Career-Best Recent Figure, Hot Trainer, Form Reversal, Equipment Change, Weight Advantage, Sharp Workout Pattern.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 65 days. (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 4 recent starts). (4) Trip note from last race: 4-3path turn;no threat.

Mod1(W): 85 (2/6) Mod2(W): 75 (3/6) Mod3(W): 75 (2/6) Mod1-LS: 52 (4/6) Mod2-LS: 72 (3/6) Mod3-LS: 85 (2/6) Win Prob: 72% Value Score: 3.21 ★ ML: 2.50 (9/5) Overlay %: -5.59 Fair Odds: 4.93 (9/2) O/U: Underlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EEE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	B	D
Early Pace	C	B
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	B	C
Finish Pos	F	F
Dirt Speed	C	C
Turf Speed	C	D
Distance Speed	C	C
Trainer Effectiveness	B	C
Jockey Effectiveness	D	D
3rd Party Ratings	A	C
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	D
Early Pace	C	C
Mid Pace	C	C
Late Pace	A	C
Sprint FPS	B	C
Route FPS	A	C
Trainer Effectiveness	B	C
Jockey Effectiveness	D	D
3rd Party Ratings	A	C
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	D
Early Pace	C	B
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (60%). (2) 3 workouts in last 30 days — horse appears sharp and fit. (3) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (4) Consistent workout spacing (7, 7 days) — disciplined training regimen. (5) One gate workout in recent training — sharpness signal from the gate. (6) Carries 13 lbs less than field median (113 lbs vs median 126 lbs). (7) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Hot Trainer, Closer in Pace Duel, Weight Advantage, Sharp Gate Work, Sharp Workout Pattern.

⚠ Concerns:(1) First-time starter - no previous race record. (2) First time at today's distance. (3) Has never raced on dirt surface.

Mod1(W): 26 (5/6) Mod2(W): 24 (5/6) Mod3(W): 28 (6/6) Mod1-LS: 77 (2/6) Mod2-LS: 23 (5/6) Mod3-LS: 68 (4/6) Win Prob: 16.6% Value Score: 3.37 ★ ML: 15.00 (14/1) Overlay %: 7.59 Fair Odds: 7.00 (6/1) O/U: Overlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EEE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	C	D
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	F	F
Early Pace	F	F
Mid Pace	F	F
Late Pace	F	F
Finish Pos	B	A
Dirt Speed	F	F
Turf Speed	C	D
Distance Speed	F	F
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	C	D
3rd Party Ratings	F	F
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	F	F
Early Pace	F	F
Mid Pace	F	F
Late Pace	F	F
Sprint FPS	F	F
Route FPS	F	F
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	C	D
3rd Party Ratings	F	F
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	F	F
Early Pace	F	F
Mid Pace	F	F
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($20,000 → $12,500). (2) Speed average (76) well above field median (62). (3) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (40%). (4) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (43%). (5) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 75 vs field 68). (6) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (7) Career-best figure (92) buried in races 4–10 back — 30 pts above race median and 8 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (8) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'S']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Hot Trainer, Closer in Pace Duel, Troubled Trip Comeback, Class Drop, Late Kick Advantage, Hidden Figure, Hot Jockey.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 6 recent starts). (2) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 5 starts). (3) Trip note from last race: Chased 2p; weakened. (4) Was the betting favorite in the last race but finished off the board. (5) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 11.2 pts: [68, 72, 84, 92, 66]) — unpredictable performer. (6) 0 wins from 7 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.

Mod1(W): 100 (1/6) Mod2(W): 100 (1/6) Mod3(W): 100 (1/6) Mod1-LS: 100 (1/6) Mod2-LS: 100 (1/6) Mod3-LS: 83 (3/6) Win Prob: 66% Value Score: 2.35 ★ ML: 1.80 (9/5) Overlay %: -10.01 Fair Odds: 4.54 (9/2) O/U: Underlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EEE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	A	B
Finish Pos	B	A
Dirt Speed	A	A
Turf Speed	C	D
Distance Speed	A	B
Trainer Effectiveness	A	C
Jockey Effectiveness	B	B
3rd Party Ratings	A	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	C
Sprint FPS	C	C
Route FPS	B	C
Trainer Effectiveness	A	C
Jockey Effectiveness	B	B
3rd Party Ratings	A	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 226-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Dropping in class today ($100,000 → $12,500). (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (50%). (4) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 92 vs field 86). (5) Dropping in class ($12,500 vs last $100,000) after a 226-day freshening — trainer setup-for-win angle. (6) Returning from 226-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot. (7) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Class Drop After Rest, Class Drop, Sharp Return Workout, Hot Jockey, Early Speed Edge.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 226 days. (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Limited experience at today's distance (2 starts). (4) Unproven on dirt surface (2 starts). (5) Trip note from last race: Off step slw;4-3p;easd.

Mod1(W): 76 (3/6) Mod2(W): 78 (2/6) Mod3(W): 73 (3/6) Mod1-LS: 65 (3/6) Mod2-LS: 80 (2/6) Mod3-LS: 100 (1/6) Win Prob: 58% Value Score: 2.21 ★ ML: 2.00 (9/5) Overlay %: -9.89 Fair Odds: 5.13 (9/2) O/U: Underlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EEE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	C
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	C	D
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	F
Finish Pos	B	A
Dirt Speed	A	B
Turf Speed	A	C
Distance Speed	A	B
Trainer Effectiveness	F	D
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	B	D
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	D
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	F
Sprint FPS	A	A
Route FPS	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	F	D
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	B	D
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	D
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (40%). (2) Career-best figure (72) buried in races 4–10 back — 14 pts above race median and 6 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (3) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 4/10 — angles: Hot Trainer, Hidden Figure.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 6 recent starts). (2) Trip note from last race: Forced in brk; 2-3path. (3) Consistently breaks behind post position (3 of last 5 starts). (4) 0 wins from post 1 in 3 recent starts. (5) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 10.5 pts: [45, 56, 66, 72, 65]) — unpredictable performer. (6) 0 wins from 6 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.

Mod1(W): 23 (5/6) Mod2(W): 13 (6/6) Mod3(W): 59 (5/6) Mod1-LS: 21 (6/6) Mod2-LS: 20 (6/6) Mod3-LS: 0 Win Prob: 35.4% Value Score: 3.14 ★ ML: 6.00 (11/2) Overlay %: 1.79 Fair Odds: 6.67 (6/1) O/U: Fair

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	C	D
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	B	D
Early Pace	C	B
Mid Pace	C	C
Late Pace	C	D
Finish Pos	A	D
Dirt Speed	B	C
Turf Speed	D	D
Distance Speed	B	C
Trainer Effectiveness	B	C
Jockey Effectiveness	D	C
3rd Party Ratings	C	D
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	D
Early Pace	B	C
Mid Pace	B	C
Late Pace	D	D
Sprint FPS	B	B
Route FPS	A	C
Trainer Effectiveness	B	C
Jockey Effectiveness	D	C
3rd Party Ratings	C	D
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	D
Early Pace	C	C
Mid Pace	B	C
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 48-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Significantly better on off tracks (off: 71 vs fast: 61). (3) Big last-race effort (71) — 11 pts above recent average. (4) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (50%). (5) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 89 vs field 83). (6) Dropping in class ($12,500 vs last $16,000) after a 48-day freshening — trainer setup-for-win angle. (7) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'S', 'U', 'V']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (8) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Class Drop After Rest, Troubled Trip Comeback, Off-Track Preference, Hot Jockey, Early Speed Edge.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 48 days. (2) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 5 recent starts). (3) Tends to fade in the stretch at similar distances (4 of 5 starts). (4) Trip note from last race: Paused7/16;svd grnd. (5) Consistently breaks behind post position (4 of last 5 starts). (6) Last race was career-best speed (71) — bounce risk after peak effort. (7) 0 wins from 5 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.

Mod1(W): 100 (1/6) Mod2(W): 100 (1/6) Mod3(W): 100 (1/6) Mod1-LS: 75 (3/6) Mod2-LS: 100 (1/6) Mod3-LS: 100 (1/6) Win Prob: 72.9% Value Score: 3.7 ★ ML: 3.00 (5/2) Overlay %: -1.98 Fair Odds: 4.64 (9/2) O/U: Fair

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	C	D
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	B
Late Pace	D	D
Finish Pos	D	F
Dirt Speed	D	D
Turf Speed	C	C
Distance Speed	A	C
Trainer Effectiveness	C	D
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	D
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	D
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	A	B
Late Pace	C	D
Sprint FPS	A	B
Route FPS	A	C
Trainer Effectiveness	C	D
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	D
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	D	D
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	B
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Finish positions improving over last 4 starts. (2) Speed average (65) well above field median (58). (3) Career-best speed figure (66) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (4) Fourth race back from a 61-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (5) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 9/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Career-Best Recent Figure, Troubled Trip Comeback, Improving Finisher, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Limited experience at today's distance (1 start). (2) Trip note from last race: 3-4w turn;led late. (3) Dropping in class in consecutive starts ($25,000 → $20,000 → $12,500). (4) 0 wins from 5 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.

Mod1(W): 79 (3/6) Mod2(W): 69 (3/6) Mod3(W): 79 (3/6) Mod1-LS: 34 (5/6) Mod2-LS: 70 (3/6) Mod3-LS: 27 (6/6) Win Prob: 44.8% Value Score: 2.56 ★ ML: 3.50 (5/2) Overlay %: -2.17 Fair Odds: 5.52 (11/2) O/U: Fair

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	C	C
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	D
Early Pace	D	D
Mid Pace	D	D
Late Pace	A	C
Finish Pos	B	F
Dirt Speed	C	C
Turf Speed	A	B
Distance Speed	D	F
Trainer Effectiveness	D	F
Jockey Effectiveness	C	C
3rd Party Ratings	B	D
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	D
Early Pace	D	D
Mid Pace	F	D
Late Pace	A	B
Sprint FPS	D	D
Route FPS	C	D
Trainer Effectiveness	D	F
Jockey Effectiveness	C	C
3rd Party Ratings	B	D
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	D
Early Pace	F	D
Mid Pace	F	D
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (55%). (2) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 43 wins from 164 starts (26%). (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (49%). (4) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 75 vs field 69). (5) Trainer 'RICE LINDA' has 5 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (6) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'F', 'L', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (7) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Hot Trainer, Troubled Trip Comeback, Late Kick Advantage, Hot Jockey, Stable on Fire.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Limited experience at today's distance (2 starts). (2) Unproven on dirt surface (2 starts). (3) Trip note from last race: Bump brk;4-5w;flatten. (4) Last race was career-best speed (63) — bounce risk after peak effort.

Mod1(W): 98 (2/6) Mod2(W): 90 (2/6) Mod3(W): 95 (2/6) Mod1-LS: 80 (2/6) Mod2-LS: 88 (2/6) Mod3-LS: 45 (5/6) Win Prob: 60.1% Value Score: 2.67 ★ ML: 2.50 (9/5) Overlay %: -5.44 Fair Odds: 4.86 (9/2) O/U: Underlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	C	D
Early Pace	F	D
Mid Pace	F	D
Late Pace	A	B
Finish Pos	A	C
Dirt Speed	C	D
Turf Speed	D	D
Distance Speed	D	F
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	B	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	D
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	D
Early Pace	D	D
Mid Pace	D	D
Late Pace	A	B
Sprint FPS	C	D
Route FPS	C	D
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	B	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	D
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	D	D
Mid Pace	D	C
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 119-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) 3 workouts in last 30 days — horse appears sharp and fit. (3) Has a bullet work (fastest at track that day) — sharp conditioning signal. (4) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 91 vs field 88). (5) Strong speed 2 back (72), modest dip last out (63) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (6) Consistent workout spacing (8, 9 days) — disciplined training regimen. (7) Returning from 119-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot. (8) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Bullet Workout, Sharp Return Workout, Early Speed Edge, Form Reversal, Sharp Workout Pattern.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 119 days. (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Tends to fade in the stretch at similar distances (3 of 3 starts). (4) Trip note from last race: Brk out;bmp;ins;tired. (5) Stepping up to $75,000 — highest class level in last 10 starts (previous high: $62,500). (6) First start at AQU — never raced here before (last seen at: LRL).

Mod1(W): 0 Mod2(W): 0 Mod3(W): 14 (6/6) Mod1-LS: 0 Mod2-LS: 0 Mod3-LS: 54 (6/6) Win Prob: 37.6% Value Score: 7.68 ★ ML: 15.00 (14/1) Overlay %: 7.10 Fair Odds: 7.33 (6/1) O/U: Overlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	C	D
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	D	C
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	C
Finish Pos	C	C
Dirt Speed	D	B
Turf Speed	C	D
Distance Speed	D	F
Trainer Effectiveness	D	B
Jockey Effectiveness	F	C
3rd Party Ratings	F	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	F	D
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	C	A
Late Pace	F	D
Sprint FPS	B	B
Route FPS	A	B
Trainer Effectiveness	D	B
Jockey Effectiveness	F	C
3rd Party Ratings	F	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	C
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (55%). (2) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 5 wins from 17 starts (29%). (3) Big last-race effort (89) — 15 pts above recent average. (4) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (53%). (5) Fourth race back from a 64-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (6) Has won at today's distance (1430 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (7) Has won at AQU on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (8) Trainer 'RICE LINDA' has 5 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (9) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'O', 'S', 'T']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (10) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 9/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Hot Trainer, Won at This Distance, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won Here Before, Hot Jockey, Stable on Fire, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Trip note from last race: Inside;4w1/4;lost show. (2) Last race was career-best speed (89) — bounce risk after peak effort. (3) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 20.7 pts: [89, 86, 70, 66, 37]) — unpredictable performer.

Mod1(W): 68 (3/6) Mod2(W): 91 (2/6) Mod3(W): 76 (2/6) Mod1-LS: 62 (4/6) Mod2-LS: 83 (2/6) Mod3-LS: 78 (4/6) Win Prob: 75% Value Score: 2.87 ★ ML: 2.00 (9/5) Overlay %: -8.62 Fair Odds: 4.70 (9/2) O/U: Underlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	C	C
Early Pace	D	B
Mid Pace	F	B
Late Pace	B	B
Finish Pos	F	D
Dirt Speed	A	A
Turf Speed	C	D
Distance Speed	C	D
Trainer Effectiveness	B	A
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	A
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	A
Early Pace	C	A
Mid Pace	C	A
Late Pace	A	A
Sprint FPS	C	B
Route FPS	D	C
Trainer Effectiveness	B	A
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	A
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	D	C
Early Pace	D	B
Mid Pace	F	C
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (55%). (2) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 43 wins from 164 starts (26%). (3) Fourth race back from a 46-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (4) Has won at today's distance (1430 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (5) Has won at AQU on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (6) Trainer 'RICE LINDA' has 5 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (7) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'O', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (8) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Hot Trainer, Won at This Distance, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won Here Before, Stable on Fire, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Moving from a route to a sprint today. (2) Trip note from last race: Out;3-2path turn;wknd.

Mod1(W): 30 (5/6) Mod2(W): 40 (5/6) Mod3(W): 28 (5/6) Mod1-LS: 86 (2/6) Mod2-LS: 48 (5/6) Mod3-LS: 100 (1/6) Win Prob: 38% Value Score: 4.36 ★ ML: 8.00 (7/1) Overlay %: 3.31 Fair Odds: 7.31 (6/1) O/U: Overlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	F	F
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	D	C
Early Pace	B	A
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	D	C
Finish Pos	A	B
Dirt Speed	C	B
Turf Speed	C	D
Distance Speed	A	B
Trainer Effectiveness	B	A
Jockey Effectiveness	C	A
3rd Party Ratings	C	A
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	B
Early Pace	C	A
Mid Pace	B	A
Late Pace	C	C
Sprint FPS	A	A
Route FPS	B	B
Trainer Effectiveness	B	A
Jockey Effectiveness	C	A
3rd Party Ratings	C	A
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	F	C
Early Pace	B	A
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 36-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Speed average (79) well above field median (72). (3) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (56%). (4) Career-best speed figure (92) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (5) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (50%). (6) 3 workouts in last 30 days — horse appears sharp and fit. (7) Has a bullet work (fastest at track that day) — sharp conditioning signal. (8) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 83 vs field 73). (9) Fourth race back from a 116-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (10) Consistent workout spacing (6, 7 days) — disciplined training regimen. (11) Has won at today's distance (1430 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (12) Returning from 36-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot. (13) Has won at AQU on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (14) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'S', 'T']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (15) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Career-Best Recent Figure, Hot Jockey, Hot Trainer, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won Here Before, Won at This Distance, Bullet Workout, Late Kick Advantage, Sharp Return Workout, Classic Fourth Race Pattern, Sharp Workout Pattern.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 36 days. (2) Limited experience at today's distance (2 starts). (3) Moving from a route to a sprint today. (4) Unproven on dirt surface (2 starts). (5) Trip note from last race: Chck/keen1st;bid 3w2nd.

Mod1(W): 100 (1/6) Mod2(W): 100 (1/6) Mod3(W): 100 (1/6) Mod1-LS: 100 (1/6) Mod2-LS: 100 (1/6) Mod3-LS: 78 (3/6) Win Prob: 74.4% Value Score: 2.65 ★ ML: 1.80 (9/5) Overlay %: -10.68 Fair Odds: 4.77 (9/2) O/U: Underlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	C	B
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	A	A
Finish Pos	D	D
Dirt Speed	A	A
Turf Speed	A	B
Distance Speed	D	F
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	A
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	B
Early Pace	D	B
Mid Pace	D	B
Late Pace	A	A
Sprint FPS	D	C
Route FPS	A	B
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	A
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	C	B
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 34-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (50%). (3) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 79 vs field 68). (4) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (5) Fourth race back from a 55-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (6) Strong speed 2 back (76), modest dip last out (65) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (7) Has won at today's distance (1760 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (8) Has won at AQU on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Won at This Distance, Closer in Pace Duel, Won Here Before, Late Kick Advantage, Form Reversal, Hot Jockey, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 34 days. (2) Trip note from last race: 5-4p turn;no response.

Mod1(W): 69 (2/7) Mod2(W): 75 (2/7) Mod3(W): 73 (2/7) Mod1-LS: 66 (2/7) Mod2-LS: 72 (2/7) Mod3-LS: 75 (4/7) Win Prob: 59% Value Score: 3.02 ★ ML: 3.00 (5/2) Overlay %: -4.05 Fair Odds: 5.46 (9/2) O/U: Underlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	D	D
Mid Pace	D	C
Late Pace	A	B
Finish Pos	B	C
Dirt Speed	B	B
Turf Speed	F	D
Distance Speed	A	B
Trainer Effectiveness	D	D
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	B	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	C
Early Pace	D	D
Mid Pace	D	C
Late Pace	B	B
Sprint FPS	C	C
Route FPS	F	D
Trainer Effectiveness	D	D
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	B	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	C
Early Pace	D	D
Mid Pace	C	D
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 2 wins from 6 starts (33%). (2) Career-best speed figure (67) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (3) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 94 vs field 82). (4) Has won at AQU on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (5) Carries 13 lbs less than field median (113 lbs vs median 126 lbs). (6) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'O', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 1st — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (7) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 9/10 — angles: Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Career-Best Recent Figure, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won Here Before, Early Speed Edge, Weight Advantage.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Rising in class today ($20,000 → $30,000). (2) Was claimed from its most recent race - new connections. (3) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (4) First time at today's distance. (5) Moving from a sprint to a route today. (6) Today's distance is longer than any previous start. (7) Unproven on dirt surface (1 start). (8) Trip note from last race: Out;4p turn;lead3/16. (9) Stepping up to $30,000 — highest class level in last 10 starts (previous high: $20,000).

Mod1(W): 0 Mod2(W): 4 (7/7) Mod3(W): 18 (7/7) Mod1-LS: 0 Mod2-LS: 0 Mod3-LS: 98 (2/7) Win Prob: 35% Value Score: 7.17 ★ ML: 15.00 (14/1) Overlay %: 5.44 Fair Odds: 8.68 (8/1) O/U: Overlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	D	D
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	C	C
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	F	D
Finish Pos	A	A
Dirt Speed	F	C
Turf Speed	F	D
Distance Speed	F	F
Trainer Effectiveness	D	D
Jockey Effectiveness	F	D
3rd Party Ratings	D	C
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	C
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	D	D
Sprint FPS	A	A
Route FPS	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	D	D
Jockey Effectiveness	F	D
3rd Party Ratings	D	C
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	D	C
Early Pace	F	F
Mid Pace	F	F
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Speed average (74) well above field median (67). (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (44%). (3) Career-best speed figure (79) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (4) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 78 vs field 68). (5) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (6) Fourth race back from a 73-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (7) Has won at today's distance (1760 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (8) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'F', 'O', 'S', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Career-Best Recent Figure, Hot Trainer, Won at This Distance, Closer in Pace Duel, Troubled Trip Comeback, Late Kick Advantage, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Moving from a sprint to a route today. (2) Trip note from last race: Inside; outfinished 2d. (3) No workout in last 30 days despite 23 days since last race. (4) Post 7 in a 8-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path. (5) First start at AQU — never raced here before (last seen at: PRX, TP).

Mod1(W): 100 (1/7) Mod2(W): 100 (1/7) Mod3(W): 100 (1/7) Mod1-LS: 100 (1/7) Mod2-LS: 100 (1/7) Mod3-LS: 81 (3/7) Win Prob: 70.9% Value Score: 3.17 ★ ML: 2.50 (9/5) Overlay %: -6.95 Fair Odds: 5.51 (11/2) O/U: Underlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	C
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	B	C
Mid Pace	B	B
Late Pace	A	B
Finish Pos	B	C
Dirt Speed	A	B
Turf Speed	A	B
Distance Speed	B	B
Trainer Effectiveness	A	B
Jockey Effectiveness	B	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	A
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	C	C
Mid Pace	B	B
Late Pace	A	A
Sprint FPS	B	B
Route FPS	C	C
Trainer Effectiveness	A	B
Jockey Effectiveness	B	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	A
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	B	C
Mid Pace	B	C
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (42%). (2) Big last-race effort (74) — 11 pts above recent average. (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (53%). (4) In the money in last 4 consecutive starts. (5) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (6) Has won at today's distance (1760 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (7) Has won at AQU on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (8) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'S', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 1st — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (9) Averages 65.4 speed pts in today's distance/surface configuration vs 53.7 in other configs (5 qualifying starts) — returning to ideal setup. (10) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Consistent In-The-Money, Hot Trainer, Closer in Pace Duel, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won Here Before, Hot Jockey, Return to Proven Setup, Won at This Distance.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Rising in class today ($16,000 → $30,000). (2) Speed average (61) well below field median (67). (3) Trip note from last race: 3-4p turn;eased up1/16. (4) Last race was career-best speed (74) — bounce risk after peak effort. (5) Post 8 in a 8-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path. (6) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 8.4 pts: [74, 54, 66, 68, 56]) — unpredictable performer.

Mod1(W): 57 (4/7) Mod2(W): 53 (4/7) Mod3(W): 56 (4/7) Mod1-LS: 30 (5/7) Mod2-LS: 47 (4/7) Mod3-LS: 68 (5/7) Win Prob: 36.8% Value Score: 2.82 ★ ML: 5.00 (9/2) Overlay %: -0.07 Fair Odds: 6.72 (6/1) O/U: Fair

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	C
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	F	D
Early Pace	D	D
Mid Pace	D	D
Late Pace	B	C
Finish Pos	C	D
Dirt Speed	C	C
Turf Speed	C	C
Distance Speed	B	B
Trainer Effectiveness	B	C
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	B	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	D	D
Early Pace	F	D
Mid Pace	D	C
Late Pace	C	C
Sprint FPS	D	C
Route FPS	A	B
Trainer Effectiveness	B	C
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	B	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	C	D
Mid Pace	B	D
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Strong speed 2 back (79), modest dip last out (67) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (2) Last race E1 pace (92.0) was 4.2 pts above personal avg (87.8) and horse still finished 5th — pace collapse victim; expect bounce if today's fractions are softer. (3) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 4/10 — angles: Pace Collapse Victim, Form Reversal.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 58 days. (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Limited experience at today's distance (2 starts). (4) Moving from a sprint to a route today. (5) Trip note from last race: 5-6w upper; tired.

Mod1(W): 92 (3/7) Mod2(W): 100 (1/7) Mod3(W): 94 (3/7) Mod1-LS: 26 (5/7) Mod2-LS: 100 (1/7) Mod3-LS: 81 (2/7) Win Prob: 62.2% Value Score: 4.39 ★ ML: 4.50 (7/2) Overlay %: 1.23 Fair Odds: 5.50 (9/2) O/U: Fair

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EEE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	B	B
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	C
Finish Pos	D	B
Dirt Speed	B	B
Turf Speed	A	B
Distance Speed	B	B
Trainer Effectiveness	C	B
Jockey Effectiveness	C	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	A
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	B
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	D	C
Sprint FPS	A	A
Route FPS	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	C	B
Jockey Effectiveness	C	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	A
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	B
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 48-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Career-best speed figure (80) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (3) 3 workouts in last 30 days — horse appears sharp and fit. (4) Strong speed 2 back (80), modest dip last out (71) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (5) Consistent workout spacing (6, 7 days) — disciplined training regimen. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 5/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Form Reversal, Sharp Workout Pattern.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 48 days. (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Limited experience at today's distance (2 starts). (4) Trip note from last race: Pace;2path turn;tired.

Mod1(W): 54 (6/7) Mod2(W): 62 (5/7) Mod3(W): 43 (6/7) Mod1-LS: 20 (6/7) Mod2-LS: 58 (5/7) Mod3-LS: 0 Win Prob: 28.4% Value Score: 3.28 ★ ML: 8.00 (7/1) Overlay %: 3.80 Fair Odds: 7.03 (6/1) O/U: Overlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EEE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	C	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	B	B
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	B	B
Finish Pos	F	C
Dirt Speed	B	B
Turf Speed	C	D
Distance Speed	B	B
Trainer Effectiveness	F	D
Jockey Effectiveness	F	C
3rd Party Ratings	B	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	B
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	B	B
Sprint FPS	A	A
Route FPS	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	F	D
Jockey Effectiveness	F	C
3rd Party Ratings	B	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	B
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (59%). (2) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 13 wins from 44 starts (30%). (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (53%). (4) 4 workouts in last 30 days — horse appears sharp and fit. (5) Has a bullet work (fastest at track that day) — sharp conditioning signal. (6) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (7) Consistent workout spacing (7, 6 days) — disciplined training regimen. (8) One gate workout in recent training — sharpness signal from the gate. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Hot Trainer, Closer in Pace Duel, Bullet Workout, Hot Jockey, Sharp Workout Pattern, Sharp Gate Work.

⚠ Concerns:(1) First-time starter - no previous race record. (2) First time at today's distance. (3) Has never raced on dirt surface.

Mod1(W): 62 (5/7) Mod2(W): 56 (6/7) Mod3(W): 55 (5/7) Mod1-LS: 4 (7/7) Mod2-LS: 54 (6/7) Mod3-LS: 9 (6/7) Win Prob: 63.7% Value Score: 2.86 ★ ML: 2.50 (9/5) Overlay %: -10.47 Fair Odds: 7.48 (6/1) O/U: Underlay

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EEE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	D	C
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	F	F
Early Pace	F	F
Mid Pace	F	F
Late Pace	F	F
Finish Pos	B	A
Dirt Speed	F	F
Turf Speed	C	D
Distance Speed	D	F
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	F	F
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	F	F
Early Pace	F	F
Mid Pace	F	F
Late Pace	F	F
Sprint FPS	F	F
Route FPS	F	F
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	F	F
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	F	F
Early Pace	D	F
Mid Pace	D	F
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 34-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (59%). (3) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 2 wins from 5 starts (40%). (4) Career-best speed figure (78) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (5) 3 workouts in last 30 days — horse appears sharp and fit. (6) Has a bullet work (fastest at track that day) — sharp conditioning signal. (7) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 82 vs field 78). (8) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (9) Consistent workout spacing (6, 7 days) — disciplined training regimen. (10) Returning from 34-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot. (11) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'O', 'S', 'T']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (12) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 9/10 — angles: Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Career-Best Recent Figure, Hot Trainer, Closer in Pace Duel, Troubled Trip Comeback, Bullet Workout, Late Kick Advantage, Sharp Return Workout, Sharp Workout Pattern.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 34 days. (2) Limited experience at today's distance (1 start). (3) Moving from a sprint to a route today. (4) Unproven on dirt surface (1 start). (5) Trip note from last race: Inside;4p;no threat. (6) Post 7 in a 8-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path.

Mod1(W): 93 (2/7) Mod2(W): 91 (2/7) Mod3(W): 95 (2/7) Mod1-LS: 100 (1/7) Mod2-LS: 90 (2/7) Mod3-LS: 24 (5/7) Win Prob: 52.4% Value Score: 3.03 ★ ML: 3.50 (5/2) Overlay %: -3.08 Fair Odds: 6.03 (11/2) O/U: Fair

Score Definitions

Mod1(W): Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
Mod2(W): Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod3(W): Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
Mod1-LS: Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
Mod2-LS: Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Mod3-LS: Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — AQU

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EEE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — AQU

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
Form Model (blue): Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	C	C
Mid Pace	B	B
Late Pace	A	A
Finish Pos	B	A
Dirt Speed	C	B
Turf Speed	C	D
Distance Speed	D	F
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	D	B
3rd Party Ratings	C	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	C	C
Mid Pace	B	B
Late Pace	A	A
Sprint FPS	D	D
Route FPS	B	B
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	D	B
3rd Party Ratings	C	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	B
Early Pace	D	F
Mid Pace	D	F
Late Pace	C	C

TL;DR

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Aqueduct Racetrack – April 10, 2026 Pick Pony Handicapper Report
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Aqueduct Racetrack – April 10, 2026 Pick Pony Handicapper Report

Dirt-only card under partly cloudy skies at 52°F with 16 mph winds; fast track favors inside posts and early speed/stalkers. Focus on pace analysis for value in exotics like mid-card Pick 4.

Race 1 (1760f, Alw 50000s)

Snide (1) tops with sharp last-out win and rail bias. Grace And Grit (4) drops from tougher; Kyle's Mom (3) adds value. Longshots: Racing Colors (2).

Race 2 (1320f, Clm 30000n2l)

Sir Kartrite (6) leads with two straight seconds at level. Math Tutor (5) stalks well; Thirteen G's (3) class drop. Longshots: Into Inspiration (2).

Race 3 (1320f, Clm 17500b)

Elegant (6) improved with blinkers and post edge. Edistrudis (3) strong first-off-claim; Principia (4) sharp drop. Longshots: Calling An Audible (2).

Race 4 (6f, Md Sp Wt)

Diamond Life (1) bullet workouts and inside draw. Gualillo (3) class drop with 82 figure; Solutions (7) fresh off layoff. Longshots: The Brown Egg (2).

Race 5 (Sprint, Md Sp Wt)

So Spirited (6) bullet breeze and strong maiden form. Killybegs Kid (2) career-best Beyer; Winegold (5) class drop. Longshots: Plex (1).

Race 6 (Sprint, Opt Clm)

Tiger Rocket (5) consistent 85+ figures. Wonder Mist (7) sharp shipper; Southeastern (6) perfect class fit. Longshots: Bonsai Warrior (1).

Race 7 (1760f, Clm 30000n2l)

Marelow (7) strong second last out over track. Purpose (2) improved figures dropping; A. P. Slingshot (8) workout bullet. Longshots: Maxisure (4).

Race 8 (1760f, Md Sp Wt)

Bishop Booming (6) bullet workouts in debut. Resolute Will (7) sharp shipper; Felonious (1) strong pedigree. Longshots: Dr. Sinatra (2).

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Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet for Aqueduct Racetrack – Racing News and Analysis for April 10, 2026

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Aqueduct Racetrack – April 10, 2026 Pick Pony Handicapper Report

Race 1 (1760f, Alw 50000s)

Race 2 (1320f, Clm 30000n2l)

Race 3 (1320f, Clm 17500b)

Race 4 (6f, Md Sp Wt)

Race 5 (Sprint, Md Sp Wt)

Race 6 (Sprint, Opt Clm)

Race 7 (1760f, Clm 30000n2l)

Race 8 (1760f, Md Sp Wt)

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