Pick Pony Picks – Consensus Expert Picks for Fair Grounds Race Course, March 13, 2026.


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Race 1 – Maiden Claiming – 1320Y Dirt – Purse not listed

Win: Bronze Legacy (2) – 65% confidence
Place: Marlin Darlin (1) – 20% confidence
Show: Peace Of Justice (5) – 10% confidence
Alternative: Nothin (7) – 5% confidence

Race notes: Analysts are heavily tilted toward Bronze Legacy (2) as the key win candidate, with multiple sources singling her out on top and others rating her no worse than third. Marlin Darlin (1) and Peace Of Justice (5) profile as logical underneath types, while Nothin (7) shows up mainly as a minor share type, indicating more exotic than win appeal. Other runners include: Ocean's Appeal (3), Go Hot Girl (4), Hammydown (6).

Race 2 – Allowance – 8F Dirt – Purse not listed

Win: Moonie Pie (3) – 70% confidence
Place: Precious Money (7) – 10% confidence
Show: Pasila (2) – 10% confidence
Alternative: Factor Of Time (1) – 10% confidence

Race notes: Moonie Pie (3) owns one of the strongest consensus profiles on the card, repeatedly landing as the preferred win choice from several analysts and consistently appearing in the money. Precious Money (7), Pasila (2), and Factor Of Time (1) are viewed as the main alternatives, suggesting a relatively tight top tier with limited enthusiasm for deeper closers. Other runners include: Eve Of Eve (6), Sue's Little Zing (8), Thundering Desire (5).​

Race 3 – Allowance Optional Claiming – 1320Y Dirt – Purse not listed

Win: Maximum Bourbon (3) – 55% confidence
Place: Autodrive (4) – 25% confidence
Show: Built (2) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Old Homestead (1) – 5% confidence

Race notes: The projected finish reflects a mild edge for Maximum Bourbon (3), but Autodrive (4) has strong backing as both a win and in-the-money candidate, making this a two-horse focal point for many analysts. Built (2) and Old Homestead (1) hold the role of supporting players, often filling out vertical wagers rather than headlining them. Other runners include: Red State (5).​

Race 4 – Claiming – 8F 110Y Turf – Purse not listed

Win: Tuck Check (3) – 60% confidence
Place: Miss River Rat (1) – 25% confidence
Show: Turf Rocket (5) – 10% confidence
Alternative: Rosieontheriver (7) – 5% confidence

Race notes: Tuck Check (3) stands out as a clear top choice, frequently listed first and rarely omitted from the frame by analysts. Miss River Rat (1) and Turf Rocket (5) appear repeatedly in the underneath spots, reinforcing a fairly formful projected trifecta, while Rosieontheriver (7) is more of an upside alternative for exotics. Other runners include: Rosie's Angus (2), Forgotten Fortune (4), Miss Harmonic (6), Differently (8), Jocasta (9).​

Race 5 – Maiden Special Weight – 1320Y Dirt – Purse not listed

Win: Irish Punch (2) – 45% confidence
Place: Kayla's Komet (7) – 25% confidence
Show: She's Our Ten (3) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Winning Matters (6) – 15% confidence

Race notes: Analysts are fairly split but lean toward Irish Punch (2) off the recency and local effort, with Kayla's Komet (7) getting strong respect as a class-drop or higher-class maiden. She's Our Ten (3) and Winning Matters (6) round out a competitive top tier, suggesting potential for price separation if the public overconcentrates on only one or two of these. Other runners include: Knock Knock (1), Startin Trouble (4), Rosecliffe (5).​

Race 6 – Maiden Special Weight – 8F Turf – Purse not listed

Win: Royal Ascot (1) – 40% confidence
Place: Private Property (IRE) (5) – 25% confidence
Show: Good Conduct (3) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Buckeye Bombshell (7) – 15% confidence

Race notes: This turf maiden has a more open feel, with Royal Ascot (1) and Private Property (IRE) (5) serving as co-anchors, supported by positive writeups and top-pick designations from different analysts. Good Conduct (3) and Buckeye Bombshell (7) attract repeated mention underneath, hinting at a logical but potentially price-friendly trifecta or superfecta structure. Other runners include: Keen Gal (2), Galatina (6), Sunshine Daydream (8), Tarzana (9), Lit Up (10), Olatz (GB) (4).​

Race 7 – Maiden Special Weight – 1320Y Dirt – Purse not listed

Win: Lakota Lady (2) – 55% confidence
Place: Aegis (1) – 20% confidence
Show: Humble Toad (3) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Nut Bush City (5) – 10% confidence

Race notes: Lakota Lady (2) has one of the stronger win consensuses on the card, repeatedly landing as the primary selection in handicapping opinions. Aegis (1), Humble Toad (3), and Nut Bush City (5) appear as logical supporting cast members, while Fast Gun (6) and Nightmare Fuel (7) receive more scattered support that may translate into price possibilities. Other runners include: Be The Light (4), Fast Gun (6), Nightmare Fuel (7).​

Race 8 – Allowance Optional Claiming – 1210Y Turf – Purse not listed

Win: Stepping Stones (4) – 45% confidence
Place: Rani (6) – 35% confidence
Show: I B Flyin (1) – 10% confidence
Alternative: Candy Talking (7) – 10% confidence

Race notes: Analysts are effectively split between Stepping Stones (4) and Rani (6), with each drawing strong top-pick support from different camps. I B Flyin (1) and Candy Talking (7) show up frequently in the second and third slots, while She's A Live Wire (3) and Hidden Map (2) attract more specialized turf-sprint interest and could be underbet if the market narrows excessively to the main pair. Other runners include: Hidden Map (2), She's a Live Wire (3), Echo Juliet (5), Nelson's Penny (8).​

Race 9 – Claiming – 1320Y Dirt – Purse not listed

Win: Crusin Like A Cat (4) – 70% confidence
Place: Where's Aunt J (2) – 15% confidence
Show: Easy Bet (10) – 10% confidence
Alternative: Mo Smoking (6) – 5% confidence

Race notes: Crusin Like A Cat (4) is the most dominant consensus choice of the evening, drawing almost universal top billing among analysts and rarely being rated worse than second. Where's Aunt J (2) and Easy Bet (10) form a clear supporting pair, while Mo Smoking (6) is a live alternative that some analysts elevate into key exotics roles. Other runners include: Miss Kennedy (1), Be A Bandit (3), Little Z (5), Lightening Mo (7), Saberfight (8), Taken It (9), Hey Madalyn Claire (11).​

Recommended Exotic Plays by Race

Race 1 – Recommended Exotic Plays

Analysts' heavy lean toward Bronze Legacy (2) suggests building exacta and trifecta structures around her as the key win anchor. Using Marlin Darlin (1), Peace Of Justice (5), and Nothin (7) as primary underneath horses, while sprinkling Go Hot Girl (4) and Hammydown (6) on deeper tickets, aligns with the consensus profile.

Race 2 – Recommended Exotic Plays

With Moonie Pie (3) showing strong consensus, an efficient structure uses Moonie Pie (3) over a second tier of Precious Money (7), Pasila (2), and Factor Of Time (1) in exactas and trifectas. Analysts' patterns support a narrower A/B construction for multi-race wagers, leaning on Moonie Pie (3) as a single or key in daily doubles and Pick 3 sequences.​

Race 3 – Recommended Exotic Plays

This race shapes as an ideal trifecta and superfecta opportunity around the Maximum Bourbon (3) and Autodrive (4) pair, who appear as primary win and place candidates in most opinions. Built (2) and Old Homestead (1) are the logical underneath inclusions, with Red State (5) reserved for wider, price-driven superfecta tickets.​

Race 4 – Recommended Exotic Plays

Analysts frequently frame Tuck Check (3) and Miss River Rat (1) as the key class of this group, making them natural exacta partners in both two-horse and three-horse boxes with Turf Rocket (5). Rosieontheriver (7) can be used as an overlay-type closer in trifectas and superfectas, particularly on tickets that key Tuck Check (3) on top.​

Race 5 – Recommended Exotic Plays

Given the divided but focused analyst view on Irish Punch (2) and Kayla's Komet (7), an efficient trifecta approach uses those two as primary A-level win keys. She's Our Ten (3) and Winning Matters (6) slot naturally into B- and C-level roles, creating layered exacta and trifecta tickets that anticipate at least one of the top two underperforming.​

Race 6 – Recommended Exotic Plays

This turf maiden is well suited to spreading in verticals, with Royal Ascot (1), Private Property (IRE) (5), and Good Conduct (3) forming the main backbone. Buckeye Bombshell (7) and Sunshine Daydream (8) supply volatility for deeper trifecta and superfecta constructions, while Olatz (GB) (4) offers a contrarian top-slot use where analysts are thinner.​

Race 7 – Recommended Exotic Plays

Lakota Lady (2) emerges as the logical single or primary A in multi-race plays and exactas, with Aegis (1), Humble Toad (3), and Nut Bush City (5) filling key supporting roles. Fast Gun (6) and Nightmare Fuel (7) can be sprinkled into superfectas as upside types where the analyst consensus is less concentrated, yielding potential for payout expansion if they hit the frame.​

Race 8 – Recommended Exotic Plays

The split between Stepping Stones (4) and Rani (6) supports building dual-anchor exacta and trifecta tickets that lean on both rather than choosing one exclusively. I B Flyin (1), Candy Talking (7), and Nelson's Penny (8) are logical additions underneath, while She's A Live Wire (3) and Hidden Map (2) can enhance superfectas when incorporated at low weight.​

Race 9 – Recommended Exotic Plays

A strong consensus on Crusin Like A Cat (4) makes this race a natural spot for cold or narrow exactas using Crusin Like a Cat (4) over Where's Aunt J (2) and Easy Bet (10). For trifectas and superfectas, Mo Smoking (6) is the most commonly cited upsetter, with Saberfight (8) and Lightening Mo (7) as low-percentage but potentially rewarding deep closers to include on saver tickets.​

Value Play Observations

Analyst agreement on Bronze Legacy (2), Moonie Pie (3), Lakota Lady (2), and Crusin Like A Cat (4) implies that these horses may trend toward underlays relative to true winning probabilities, especially in straight win pools and simple exotics. Bettors seeking value might instead emphasize them more heavily in multi-race structures while pressing alternatives in intra-race exactas and trifectas.​

In contrast, runners like Peace Of Justice (5) in Race 1, Pasila (2) in Race 2, Built (2) in Race 3, and Turf Rocket (5) in Race 4 receive solid but not dominant analyst support, suggesting they could be mild overlays if the public focus clings too tightly to the main chalk. These profiles are well suited to win/place wagers at fair odds and as leveraged B-keys beneath heavier favorites.

Horses such as Good Conduct (3) and Buckeye Bombshell (7) in Race 6, Nut Bush City (5) in Race 7, and Candy Talking (7) in Race 8 appear more frequently in supporting roles than the markets may fully price in, offering subtle value particularly in the second and third positions of vertical exotics. Price sensitivity will be crucial here, as their appeal hinges on the balance between consensus respect and tote-board neglect.​

Overall Wagering Strategy

Strongest consensus races on this card appear to be Race 2 with Moonie Pie (3), Race 7 with Lakota Lady (2), and Race 9 with Crusin Like A Cat (4), each drawing win-confidence levels above roughly 55 to 70 percent from the analyst set. These runners function as natural singles or A-level keys in multi-race sequences, particularly where the bettor is comfortable absorbing short prices in exchange for a higher probability of advancement.​

Split-opinion races include Race 3, where Maximum Bourbon (3) and Autodrive (4) vie for top billing, Race 5, where Irish Punch (2) and Kayla's Komet (7) split analyst sentiment, and Race 8, where Stepping Stones (4) and Rani (6) share the top band. In these spots, sophisticated bettors may adopt an A/A structure that uses both leading contenders while consciously de-emphasizing the remainder of the field, thereby capturing the main winning scenarios without over-investing in longshots that lack consistent analytical support.

Multi-race sequences can be constructed by chaining together the strongest consensus races—such as a mid-card Pick 3 using Moonie Pie (3) in Race 2, Maximum Bourbon (3) or an A/B pair with Autodrive (4) in Race 3, and Tuck Check (3) in Race 4, or a late Pick 4 built around Lakota Lady (2) in Race 7, Stepping Stones (4) and Rani (6) in Race 8, and Crusin Like A Cat (4) in Race 9. These structures reduce volatility by concentrating bankroll around high-confidence opinions while still maintaining some flexibility where analyst views diverge.​

Exotic value opportunities are most evident in fields with clear but not overwhelming favorites, such as Race 1 and Race 6, where the consensus top choices can be keyed while still allowing for a broader spread beneath. Trifecta and superfecta tickets that press a single win anchor while rotating three to five logical underneath runners—often those with mid-range analyst support—can deliver favorable risk–reward profiles, especially when at least one non-obvious runner sneaks into the frame.

Environmental factors, including expected warm conditions and consistent dirt and turf configurations, suggest that pace dynamics and trip will play a larger role than sudden surface changes, so bettors should give weight to tactical speed and proven course affinity noted in analyst commentary. Across the card, the key takeaways are to treat the strongest consensus horses as structural anchors rather than blind win bets, to exploit split-opinion races by backing multiple top contenders instead of chasing deep longshots, and to use vertical exotics to capitalize when second-tier analyst choices outrun public expectations.

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