Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!
Pick Pony takes pride in providing the most accurate expert picks available today. Pick Pony Expert Picks are carefully selected by our team of analysts based on analytics from our advanced Past Performance Sheets and Racing Forms. For potential longshot selections, check out Pick Pony’s AI Picks.
Race 1 Maiden Claiming 6 Furlongs Dirt Purse $17,000
Win: NORTH SHIP (4) – 67% confidence
Place: R WINCHESTER (3) – 67% confidence
Show: BROKEN SOUND (5) – 50% confidence
Alternative: SENOR RESPLANDOR (6) – 17% confidence
The analyst group shows a very strong preference for NORTH SHIP (4) following a string of competitive second-place finishes at this track and distance. R WINCHESTER (3) is also highly regarded while dropping in class, though some analysts suspect BROKEN SOUND (5) could challenge for the minor spoils after a freshening.
Race 2 Maiden Claiming 1 Mile 40 Yards Dirt Purse $17,000
Win: BAD BOY BUTCH (3) – 83% confidence
Place: MORALITO (5) – 50% confidence
Show: SENOR MONEY (8) – 67% confidence
Alternative: SKYLINER (4) – 17% confidence
This race features the strongest consensus selection of the day. Analysts are nearly unanimous in backing BAD BOY BUTCH (3) to finally break his maiden after knocking on the door in higher classes. MORALITO (5) and SENOR MONEY (8) are largely viewed as the only viable candidates to fill out the exacta.
Race 3 Claiming 1 Mile 70 Yards Dirt Purse $18,000
Win: ASK THE MONARCH (1) – 50% confidence
Place: BRAVO KITTEN (4) – 50% confidence
Show: MISCHIEVOUS TRICK (5) – 67% confidence
Alternative: SMART STYLE (3) – 17% confidence
The opinions here are highly divided between the top two selections. One group of analysts favors ASK THE MONARCH (1) following a sharp win over the track, while others prefer the narrowly beaten BRAVO KITTEN (4). MISCHIEVOUS TRICK (5) is the overwhelming choice for the show spot.
Race 4 Claiming 1 Mile 40 Yards Dirt Purse $21,000
Win: ONE VIOLENT AFFAIR (4) – 50% confidence
Place: CLASSIC BALLAD (2) – 50% confidence
Show: QUEEN ATLAS (7) – 33% confidence
Alternative: CHINA BLUE (6) – 33% confidence
Analysts are split on whether ONE VIOLENT AFFAIR (4) can double up after a recent course-and-distance win. CLASSIC BALLAD (2) receives significant win-and-place support as a major challenger. The minor positions are highly contested with no clear consensus on the third-best runner.
Race 5 Maiden Claiming 1 Mile 70 Yards Turf Purse $20,000
Win: NO MERLOT (3) – 83% confidence
Place: ALRASIKH (4) – 50% confidence
Show: MR. FUNTASTICO (8) – 50% confidence
Alternative: DEVILMENT (6) – 17% confidence
A very high level of agreement exists regarding NO MERLOT (3), who many analysts believe is the class of the field while moving to the turf. ALRASIKH (4) and MR. FUNTASTICO (8) are viewed as consistent types that should battle for the underneath positions.
Race 6 Claiming 1 Mile 70 Yards Dirt Purse $18,000
Win: PASSIONED (8) – 50% confidence
Place: CONSPIRACY FACT (1) – 33% confidence
Show: SPEEDY HANS (2) – 33% confidence
Alternative: COPAZO (5) – 33% confidence
This is a wide-open race according to the analyst group. While PASSIONED (8) is the most popular win choice, there is significant disagreement on the runner-up. SPEEDY HANS (2) and CONSPIRACY FACT (1) are both seen as threats, creating a volatile wagering environment.
Race 7 Maiden Claiming 1 Mile Turf Purse $20,000
Win: MAGICA (1) – 50% confidence
Place: MONEY TRAIL (9) – 67% confidence
Show: ENCHANT (4) – 33% confidence
Alternative: NEW ISSUE (11) – 17% confidence
Analysts are generally focused on a three-horse duel. MAGICA (1) and MONEY TRAIL (9) are the primary targets, with analysts favoring MONEY TRAIL (9) to hit the board even if she fails to find the winner’s circle. ENCHANT (4) is noted as a fitness-based sleeper.
Race 8 Claiming 6 Furlongs Dirt Purse $18,500
Win: RAYDAR CONTROL (1) – 50% confidence
Place: MESSI THE GREAT (2) – 33% confidence
Show: NYIKOS (4) – 33% confidence
Alternative: GO YOSHIDA (10) – 17% confidence
RAYDAR CONTROL (1) leads the consensus despite the presence of several lightly-raced winners. Analysts are cautious about NYIKOS (4) and MESSI THE GREAT (2), suggesting this race may be ripe for an exotic upset if the favorite falters.
Race 9 Allowance Optional Claiming 1 Mile Turf Purse $54,000
Win: EJTIMAA (1) – 83% confidence
Place: SHERLOCK’S JEWEL (6) – 50% confidence
Show: BRITAIN’S KITTEN (3) – 33% confidence
Alternative: LETS GO KOKO (9) – 17% confidence
The feature race provides a high-conviction anchor in EJTIMAA (1), who is coming off a significant win. Analysts largely agree that the main competition will come from SHERLOCK’S JEWEL (6) and the class-dropping BRITAIN’S KITTEN (3).
Recommended Exotic Plays by Race
Race 1: Analysts suggest focusing on an Exacta Box featuring NORTH SHIP (4) and R WINCHESTER (3). For those looking for more coverage, a Trifecta with BROKEN SOUND (5) in the third spot is recommended.
Race 2: Given the heavy favoritism of BAD BOY BUTCH (3), analysts recommend a cold Exacta using BAD BOY BUTCH (3) over SENOR MONEY (8). A Trifecta Wheel with BAD BOY BUTCH (3) keyed on top of MORALITO (5) and SENOR MONEY (8) is a high-probability play.
Race 3: Analysts view this as a prime spot for an Exacta Box with ASK THE MONARCH (1) and BRAVO KITTEN (4). A Trifecta using those two on top of MISCHIEVOUS TRICK (5) is also suggested.
Race 4: With divided opinions, analysts recommend a three-horse Exacta Box using ONE VIOLENT AFFAIR (4), CLASSIC BALLAD (2), and QUEEN ATLAS (7).
Race 5: Analysts propose keying NO MERLOT (3) in the win spot for all exotic tickets. A Superfecta using NO MERLOT (3) over ALRASIKH (4), MR. FUNTASTICO (8), and DEVILMENT (6) offers good value if the longshot hits.
Race 6: This race is noted as a chaotic leg. Analysts suggest a wide Trifecta Box using PASSIONED (8), CONSPIRACY FACT (1), SPEEDY HANS (2), and COPAZO (5) to cover the analytical variance.
Race 7: Analysts recommend an Exacta Part-Wheel using MAGICA (1) and MONEY TRAIL (9) on top of ENCHANT (4) and SUGAR MAGNOLIA (10).
Race 8: Analysts suggest a cautious approach with an Exacta Box of RAYDAR CONTROL (1), MESSI THE GREAT (2), and NYIKOS (4).
Race 9: The strong consensus on EJTIMAA (1) makes her a natural Pick 3 or Daily Double anchor. Analysts recommend a Trifecta using EJTIMAA (1) over SHERLOCK’S JEWEL (6) and BRITAIN’S KITTEN (3).
Value Play Observations
In Race 1, NORTH SHIP (4) appears to be an overlay if the morning line holds near 6/5, as analysts are nearly two-thirds in agreement on her superiority. Conversely, BROKEN SOUND (5) may be an underlay at 7/2 given the mixed reviews on his current fitness.
Race 2 presents BAD BOY BUTCH (3) as a massive underlay at 6/5, though his win probability according to the analysts (83%) actually exceeds his price. The real value may lie with MORALITO (5) in the place spot.
In Race 6, PASSIONED (8) stands out as a potential value play at 5/2. While the race is messy, his high frequency of selection among specialists suggests his true odds should be closer to 8/5.
Race 8 shows NYIKOS (4) at 8/1, which analysts consider a significant overlay. While he is not the consensus top pick, his frequency in the win and place spots across several experts suggests he is much more live than his longshot odds imply.
Overall Wagering Strategy
Strongest Consensus Races: The early and late portions of the card offer the most stability for bettors. Race 2 and Race 5 are dominated by BAD BOY BUTCH (3) and NO MERLOT (3), respectively. Both horses command over 80% analyst confidence, driven by significant class advantages and consistent recent form. Race 9 also features a powerhouse consensus in EJTIMAA (1), who appears well-positioned to handle the step up in the feature. These three races should serve as the foundation for multi-race tickets.
Split-Opinion Races: Race 3 and Race 4 present the greatest analytical tension. In Race 3, the debate centers on the speed of ASK THE MONARCH (1) versus the late closing ability of BRAVO KITTEN (4). In Race 4, ONE VIOLENT AFFAIR (4) and CLASSIC BALLAD (2) are deadlocked in the consensus. These races require defensive coverage in horizontal wagers, as no single horse has separated itself from the pack in the eyes of the analyst community.
Multi-Race Sequences: A lucrative Pick 3 sequence begins in Race 7 and concludes with the feature in Race 9. While Race 7 and Race 8 have clear leaders in MAGICA (1) and RAYDAR CONTROL (1), they are not locks. However, the sequence culminates in Race 9 with the highly reliable EJTIMAA (1). Using the strong consensus in the final leg allows for wider coverage in the more volatile seventh and eighth races, reducing the risk of a late-sequence blowout.
Exotic Value Opportunities: Race 6 stands out as the primary target for high-upside exotic plays. The lack of a dominant favorite and the wide variance in analyst selections for the minor positions create a scenario where a four-horse Trifecta or Superfecta box can capture a large payout. The presence of several double-digit longshots like PANDO (4) and PEACE CLOUD (7) in the consensus show spots suggests that the favorites may be vulnerable to a pace-driven upset.
Environmental/Track Factors: The dirt surface is expected to be fast, which should favor the high-confidence speed horses like BAD BOY BUTCH (3) in Race 2. On the turf, analysts are watching for a potential bias toward inside draws, which bolsters the case for EJTIMAA (1) and MAGICA (1) starting from the rail positions.
Key Takeaways: Priority should be given to keying the three 80% plus consensus horses in multi-race wagers to maximize ticket efficiency. Bettors should look to the mid-card claiming races, specifically Race 6, for the best opportunity to find price-driven exotic scores. Finally, the overlap between analyst win and place picks in Race 1 suggests a very narrow outcome between the top two favorites.
