Pick Pony Picks – Consensus Expert Picks for Oaklawn Park, March 22, 2026.


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Race 1 – Maiden Claiming – 6f Dirt – Purse approximately mid-level Oaklawn maiden claiming​

Win: Capital Connection (3) – 60% confidence
Place: Nyquist Frequency (1) – 55% confidence
Show: Hard Circle (4) – 35% confidence
Alternative: Historic (5) – 30% confidence

Race notes: Analysts consistently key Capital Connection (3) and Nyquist Frequency (1) as the main win threats, with slight preference overall to Capital Connection (3) on top. Historic (5) and Hard Circle (4) are seen as underneath players, while Mckinsense (7), Speedstorm (6) and Ledbetter (2) are sparsely used and project more as longshot exotic fillers. Other runners include: Ledbetter (2), Speedstorm (6), McKinsense (7).

Race 2 – Claiming – 1m Dirt – Purse about 25–26k to winner​

Win: Promisemeanempire (3) – 55% confidence
Place: Bamtwentyklater (4) – 50% confidence
Show: Don't Look Back (1) – 40% confidence
Alternative: Super Costly (8) – 35% confidence

Race notes: Opinion is fairly tight among the main quartet, with Promisemeanempire (3) getting a slight edge for the win on form and trip. Bamtwentyklater (4), Don't Look Back (1) and Super Costly (8) all show up frequently in the top three, suggesting spread-heavy exotic structures are warranted. Revelant (5), Quibble (2), Teatotal (7) and Catching Heat (6) are rarely highlighted but can spice up deeper tickets. Other runners include: Quibble (2), Revelant (5), Catching Heat (6), Teatotal (7).

Race 3 – Starter Allowance – 6f Dirt – Purse starter-level​

Win: Shanett (3) – 70% confidence
Place: Baytown Butterfly (4) – 45% confidence
Show: True Passion (5) – 40% confidence
Alternative: Tizntshelovely (6) – 35% confidence

Race notes: Shanett (3) is a strong consensus win choice across multiple analysts, creating a relatively formful projected outcome. Baytown Butterfly (4), True Passion (5) and Tizntshelovely (6) cluster tightly for minor awards and figure prominently in exacta and trifecta structures. Moon Over Choctaw (7), Well Aware (1) and Up The Creek (2) are lightly used but could drift into the frame if the top tier fails to fire. Other runners include: Well Aware (1), Up the Creek (2), Moon Over Choctaw (7).

Race 4 – Claiming – 6f Dirt – Purse mid-level claimer​

Win: Abitibi (9) – 55% confidence
Place: Highly Creative (5) – 40% confidence
Show: Collected Glory (3) – 40% confidence
Alternative: Tartaria (7) – 35% confidence

Race notes: Abitibi (9) is widely respected despite a poor last run and anchors many projections on top. Highly Creative (5) and Collected Glory (3) attract balanced support in the top three, while Tartaria (7) appears most often as a value underneath type. Smart With Heart (2), First Hill (1), Rodeo Star (6) and St. Albans Raid (8) are seen as fringe board contenders, creating a relatively deep field for exotic purposes. Other runners include: First Hill (1), Smart With Heart (2), Riobella (4), Rodeo Star (6), St. Albans Raid (8).

Race 5 – Maiden Claiming – 6f Dirt – Purse similar to race 1​

Win: With Kindness (4) – 75% confidence
Place: Lovely Words (6) – 50% confidence
Show: She's Honed In (7) – 45% confidence
Alternative: Nyad (2) – 40% confidence

Race notes: With Kindness (4) is one of the clearest single-type favorites on the card, topping almost every analyst's stack. Lovely Words (6) and She's Honed In (7) are repeatedly used as logical underneath pieces, while Nyad (2) attracts steady respect as a closing threat. Suitefourfourthree (1), Raging Current (3) and Ye Ole Joker (5) are less frequently mentioned but can offer price in deeper trifectas and superfectas. Other runners include: Suitefourfourthree (1), Raging Current (3), Ye Ole Joker (5).

Race 6 – Claiming – 6f Dirt – Purse mid-level​

Win: I'm Wide Awake (5) – 65% confidence
Place: Plausible Denile (4) – 55% confidence
Show: Sara's Shaman (3) – 45% confidence
Alternative: Sir Sterling (1) – 35% confidence

Race notes: I'm Wide Awake (5) rates as a solid favorite with broad support for the win slot. Plausible Denile (4) is consistently seen as the main danger, while Sara's Shaman (3) appears often as a board hitter with some stretch-out upside. Sir Sterling (1) and Got Thunder (2) are less popular but show enough scattered support to justify inclusion in deeper exotic horizontals. Other runners include: Got Thunder (2), Healing Waters (6), Go West (7).

Race 7 – Allowance – 1m Dirt – Purse allowance-level​

Win: Caliente Star (2) – 80% confidence
Place: Lassie My Girl (5) – 55% confidence
Show: Gold Strategy (8) – 45% confidence
Alternative: Lady Woopig (7) – 40% confidence

Race notes: Caliente Star (2) is a standout consensus choice and profiles as a strong key in vertical and horizontal wagers. Lassie My Girl (5) and Gold Strategy (8) are rated as the principal threats, while Lady Woopig (7) carries a sneaky upside profile as an alternative. Courtney Fay (1), Lady Astrid (3), She's A Dreamer (4), Principal Anita (6) and Arr Piratetreasure (9) appear mostly as longshot inclusions. Other runners include: Courtney Fay (1), Lady Astrid (3), She's a Dreamer (4), Principal Anita (6), Arr Piratetreasure (9).

Race 8 – Allowance – 1m Dirt – Purse allowance-level​

Win: Untamed Moment (7) – 75% confidence
Place: Gin's Beach Road (2) – 65% confidence
Show: Crimsonite (6) – 40% confidence
Alternative: Bundle (4) – 35% confidence

Race notes: Untamed Moment (7) and Gin's Beach Road (2) form a strong two-horse axis, dominating most projections for top-two positions. Crimsonite (6) shows up repeatedly underneath as a price threat with some improvement potential. Bundle (4) and Mckinzie's Glory (1) get intermittent mention as exotics enhancers, while Chaching Chaching (5) is more of a speculative inclusion. Other runners include: McKinzie's Glory (1), Chaching Chaching (5), Ensorcell (3).

Race 9 – Maiden Claiming – 6f Dirt – Purse approx. 24k–25k​

Win: Phantom Slayer (5) – 60% confidence
Place: Social Climber (9) – 55% confidence
Show: Kingscliff (2) – 50% confidence
Alternative: Big Fuzz (8) – 40% confidence

Race notes: Phantom Slayer (5) edges a competitive group as the preferred win candidate, with supportive comments on upside and trainer strength. Social Climber (9) and Kingscliff (2) are widely respected and often land in exacta and trifecta constructions. Big Fuzz (8) is used as a key alternative with debut upside, while A Wild Posse (1), Wadi Al Kouf (3), Miss You Mo (4) and Into Battle (6) form a volatile second tier. Other runners include: A Wild Posse (1), Wadi Al Kouf (3), Miss You Mo (4), Into Battle (6), Astro Beau (7).

Recommended Exotic Plays by Race

Race 1 – Analysts generally build around Capital Connection (3) and Nyquist Frequency (1) in exactas and trifectas, often keying Capital Connection (3) on top with Nyquist Frequency (1) and Hard Circle (4) in the two-hole and spreading to Historic (5) and Mckinsense (7) for third. A modest superfecta wheel focusing on 3,1 over 3,1,4,5 over 3,1,4,5,7 over the remaining runners can capture likely outcomes while still allowing for a price to crash the bottom slot. Horizontal players can single Capital Connection (3) or use a 1–3 win-protection pair in early daily doubles and Pick 3s.​

Race 2 – Consensus leans to a tight core of Promisemeanempire (3), Bamtwentyklater (4), Don't Look Back (1) and Super Costly (8), so analysts favor narrow, high-probability exacta and trifecta boxes among those four. Exactas such as 3,4 over 1,3,4,8 and trifectas 3,4 over 1,3,4,8 over 1,3,4,5,8 offer coverage with manageable cost. In multi-race bets, most analysts structure this as a “use several” leg with 1,3,4,8 all included to avoid getting knocked out by a small upset.

Race 3 – With Shanett (3) a strong projected winner, many tickets key her in the win slot and then spread among Baytown Butterfly (4), True Passion (5), Tizntshelovely (6) and Moon Over Choctaw (7) underneath. A typical analyst trifecta approach is 3 over 4,5,6,7 over 4,5,6,7, and an exacta wheel 3 over 4,5,6 can be pressed for more leverage. Shanett (3) is a popular single for Pick 3/4 structures given the consensus strength.​

Race 4 – Exotic plays tend to rotate around Abitibi (9), Highly Creative (5), Collected Glory (3) and Tartaria (7) in flexible combinations. Analysts often recommend exacta boxes using 3,5,7,9 and trifectas 9,5 over 3,5,7,9 over 1,2,3,5,7,9 to capture the second tier at a price. Horizontally, this race is often treated as a spread leg, with 3,5,7,9 all used and occasional coverage added for smart price types like St. Albans Raid (8).​

Race 5 – With Kindness (4) is widely used as a key in exactas and trifectas, with Lovely Words (6), She's Honed In (7) and Nyad (2) forming the primary supporting cast. Analysts favor structures like an exacta 4 over 2,6,7 and a trifecta 4 over 2,6,7 over 1,2,3,5,6,7 to leverage the strong favorite while allowing for prices in third. In horizontal wagers, With Kindness (4) is often a single or used as an A-level key, with Lovely Words (6) as backup where bankroll allows.​

Race 6 – Most exotic recommendations revolve around an I'm Wide Awake (5) and Plausible Denile (4) core, using Sara's Shaman (3) and Sir Sterling (1) heavily underneath. Exactas 5,4 over 1,3,4,5 and trifectas 5 over 1,3,4,5 over 1,2,3,4,5,7 are common constructions to balance coverage and cost. Horizontally, I'm Wide Awake (5) is often an A-level selection, with Plausible Denile (4) as a necessary hedge in multi-race sequences.​

Race 7 – Caliente Star (2) serves as the central key in nearly all vertical and horizontal approaches, frequently singled on top with Lassie My Girl (5), Gold Strategy (8) and Lady Woopig (7) cycling in the minor slots. Analysts favor an exacta 2 over 5,7,8 and a trifecta 2 over 5,7,8 over 1,3,4,5,6,7,8 to capture a possible longshot third. In longer sequences, Caliente Star (2) is a classic single to build around when pressing opinions.​

Race 8 – Untamed Moment (7) and Gin's Beach Road (2) form a powerful two-horse engine, so many exotic tickets box that pair on top and use Crimsonite (6) and Bundle (4) for value. A common analyst play is exacta box 2,7 and trifectas 2,7 over 2,4,6,7 over 1,2,4,5,6,7 to incorporate some prices. Horizontally, 2 and 7 are typically A-level, with minor backup to Crimsonite (6) where deeper coverage is affordable.​

Race 9 – Analysts assemble exactas and trifectas primarily using Phantom Slayer (5), Social Climber (9), Kingscliff (2) and Big Fuzz (8), with A Wild Posse (1) as a live outsider. Exacta combinations like 5,9 over 1,2,5,8,9 and trifectas 5,9 over 1,2,5,8,9 over 1,2,3,4,5,6,8,9 are typical structures to balance chalk and price. In horizontals, this is treated more as a “use several” closing leg, reflecting the depth and possible volatility of the field.​

Value Play Observations

Across the card, analysts' pick frequencies imply several horses may be overbet relative to true winning chances, while others project as overlays, especially in vertical exotics. Capital Connection (3) in race 1 and With Kindness (4) in race 5 both carry heavy consensus and relatively short morning lines, suggesting they are more appropriate as keys in exotics than as aggressive straight-win value propositions.​

Races 3, 7 and 8 feature strong favorites in Shanett (3), Caliente Star (2) and Untamed Moment (7), each of whom is repeatedly singled by analysts, pointing to probabilities above their implied odds but also limiting upside on straight bets. In those spots, the value tends to shift to underneath runners like True Passion (5), Lady Woopig (7) and Crimsonite (6), whose pick frequencies suggest higher chances of hitting the board than their likely prices indicate.​

Conversely, some lightly mentioned runners may go off at inflated odds yet still hold realistic chances to impact exotics, including Mckinsense (7) in race 1, Super Costly (8) in race 2 and Sir Sterling (1) in race 6. Analysts' occasional use of those horses in alternative or show roles hints at a real, if modest, probability edge over the market's typical dismissal of such profiles. By emphasizing these value types in third and fourth positions of trifectas and superfectas, bettors can exploit small probability/price discrepancies without overexposing bankroll on low-percentage outcomes.

Overall Wagering Strategy

From a global perspective, this Oaklawn card features several races with strong consensus and a few with genuinely split opinion, offering a balanced menu of low-variance and high-upside wagering opportunities. The strongest consensus races by analyst agreement are race 5 with With Kindness (4), race 7 with Caliente Star (2), race 8 with Untamed Moment (7) and race 3 with Shanett (3), all of whom command roughly two-thirds or more of projected win confidence. These runners are well suited to serve as structural singles or heavy A-level keys in multi-race sequences, underpinning Pick 3, Pick 4 and Pick 5 tickets while allowing bettors to take more creative swings around them in vertical exotics.​

Races 1, 2, 4 and 9 showcase more divided analyst opinion and thus higher outcome entropy, with multiple contenders clustered in the 30–50% confidence band and credible longshots lurking just behind. In these events, the analytical tension between logical favorites and second-tier threats argues for spreading rather than narrowing: using several win candidates in horizontal legs, boxing key contenders in exactas and building deeper trifectas that incorporate both consensus picks and identified prices. Bettors should resist the temptation to overconfidently single short-priced favorites in these softer-opinion races, as the consensus data points to meaningful upset risk.

In constructing multi-race sequences, the most efficient backbone appears to be a mid-card block centered on races 3, 5, 7 and 8, where consensus is robust and logical favorites fit the track profile for mid-distance dirt events. That configuration lends itself to Pick 4 and rolling Pick 3 constructions that single one or two of these standouts while letting the other legs provide redundancy. Because the more chaotic races bookend the card, bettors can structure tickets that press their strongest mid-card opinions while lightly spreading early and late, targeting carryover potential where pools build and volatility in the opening and closing legs can produce outsized payoffs.​

Exotic value opportunities are most pronounced in races where form cycles and class shifts introduce ambiguity, notably races 1, 2 and 9, in which several runners own plausible forward moves but limited analyst agreement. Superfecta and trifecta wheels that key consensus horses in the top slots while aggressively inserting overlays such as Mckinsense (7), Super Costly (8), Sir Sterling (1) and A Wild Posse (1) in the lower rungs can capitalize on race chaos at relatively modest cost. Structurally, four-horse or five-horse combinations in exactas and trifectas, with a mix of chalk and prices, offer the best balance of coverage and efficiency given the projected probability distributions.

Environmental and track factors, based on the forecasted warm, fast conditions typical of late March at Oaklawn, suggest a fair main track favoring tactical speed but not extreme bias in either direction. Analysts' repeated emphasis on forwardly placed types like Capital Connection (3), Caliente Star (2) and Untamed Moment (7) aligns with this expectation, making early position and pace resilience key handicapping themes. Overall, bettors should prioritize a disciplined approach that leans on the most robust consensus singles in the mid-card, spreads in higher-variance bookend races, and systematically incorporates identified value runners in exotic slots rather than chasing large win bets on low-percentage prices.

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