Pick Pony Picks – Consensus Expert Picks for Sunland Park, March 23, 2026.


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Race 1 – Maiden Claiming – 1 mile Dirt – Purse approx $7,500

Win: Citizen Barrett (4) – 70% confidence

Place: Expo City (6) – 60% confidence

Show: Karaoke Hero (1) – 45% confidence

Alternative: Toni The Grrreat (3) – 40% confidence

Race notes: Analysts cluster heavily around Citizen Barrett (4) as the key win candidate off the recent local maiden score and consistently strong writeups, with Expo City (6) the clear second choice on class and trip suitability. Karaoke Hero (1) and Toni The Grrreat (3) project as more underneath types, while Street Colors (5) shows up as a minority upset stab that could spice up exotics if the pace collapses.

Other runners include: Torreado (2), Street Colors (5).

Race 2 – Starter Optional Claiming – 1100 yards Dirt – Purse approx $9,000

Win: Red Leader (6) – 75% confidence

Place: Sweet River Baines (5) – 70% confidence

Show: Panuco (3) – 35% confidence

Alternative: Runningintherain (7) – 30% confidence

Race notes: This is one of the strongest favorites on the card with Red Leader (6) nearly universally projected on top and Sweet River Baines (5) almost as strong as the key underneath player. Panuco (3) and Runningintherain (7) are value candidates to fill out tris and supers, while any support for Blazing To Gold (2) is relatively light and mainly for minor checks.

Other runners include: Coyster (1), Blazing To Gold (2).

Race 3 – Starter Optional Claiming – 1430 yards Dirt – Purse approx $9,000

Win: Daux (5) – 70% confidence

Place: One Mark (2) – 65% confidence

Show: Three Martinis (3) – 40% confidence

Alternative: American Solo (6) – 35% confidence

Race notes: Analysts split the win slot between Daux (5) and One Mark (2) but tip slightly toward Daux (5) on current form and winning streak. One Mark (2) is nearly as prominent and a logical anchor in exactas and doubles, while Three Martinis (3) and American Solo (6) keep showing up as underneath pieces more than true win alternatives. Dora's Storm (4) rates some trip-dependent upside but is less frequently spotlighted.

Other runners include: Grifter (1), Dora's Storm (4).

Race 4 – Allowance Optional Claiming – 1430 yards Dirt – Purse approx $10,000

Win: Catmansue (5) – 80% confidence

Place: Moonshine Mischief (1) – 55% confidence

Show: Zia Zapper (2) – 40% confidence

Alternative: Aztec Sun (3) – 35% confidence

Race notes: Catmansue (5) stands out as one of the day's most decisive top selections, with multiple analysts calling this runner “tough to beat” on the drop and back-class. Support for Moonshine Mischief (1) and Zia Zapper (2) is concentrated in the place and show slots, suggesting they are logical exacta and trifecta companions with modest win upside. Aztec Sun (3) is respected but sits a notch below the main pair, likely depending on trip and pace shape.

Other runners include: Winfromwithin (4), Bart Sip Some (6).

Race 5 – Claiming – 1430 yards Dirt – Purse approx $8,000

Win: Be A Pro (7) – 75% confidence

Place: Pray For Me Ray (3) – 65% confidence

Show: Toppers At Seaside (4) – 60% confidence

Alternative: Tatas Joe Mark (6) – 35% confidence

Race notes: Be A Pro (7) draws overwhelming top billing from analysts despite a minor last-out disappointment, suggesting today's spot is seen as class relief and a favorable pace scenario. Pray For Me Ray (3) and Toppers At Seaside (4) are consistently mentioned as logical underneath horses and occasional upset candidates, while Tatas Joe Mark (6) has enough support to be a key superfecta inclusion. Holland (1) and Shame On Sam (2) get little attention and project more as longshot board-fillers.

Other runners include: Holland (1), Shame On Sam (2), Piney Bluff (5).

Race 6 – Claiming – 1210 yards Dirt – Purse approx $8,000

Win: Punkin Puddin (6) – 85% confidence

Place: Regal's Charm (4) – 50% confidence

Show: Proceedtothefront (1) – 45% confidence

Alternative: Your Money (2) – 30% confidence

Race notes: Punkin Puddin (6) is arguably the strongest single on the program, with analysts uniformly locking onto this runner on class and consistency. Regal's Charm (4) and Proceedtothefront (1) are the primary options to complete exactas and trifectas, and both have multiple mentions as logical chasers rather than serious threats to the favorite. Your Money (2) gets mild support as a late-running piece, while Marked Ace (3), Musical Money (5), Trump Dance (7), and All Marked Up (8) are fringe exotics fillers at best.

Other runners include: Proceedtothefront (1), Marked Ace (3), Musical Money (5), Trump Dance (7), All Marked Up (8).

Race 7 – Allowance – 1320 yards Dirt – Purse approx $10,000

Win: Thatsaterriblidea (3) – 80% confidence

Place: Mo Money Molly (1) – 70% confidence

Show: Shez Punctual (4) – 40% confidence

Alternative: Ms Tres Morena (7) – 30% confidence

Race notes: Thatsaterriblidea (3) is almost universally considered the most likely winner based on consistency and projected trip, with Mo Money Molly (1) appearing in nearly every analysis as the main danger and exacta partner. Shez Punctual (4) and Ms Tres Morena (7) are viewed as more volatile types that can either jump forward into the trifecta or regress out of the number. Leonas Girl (5) and Make Up A Story (6) maintain some support but mainly as deeper exotic keys rather than primaries.

Other runners include: Leonas Girl (5), Make Up A Story (6).

Race 8 – Allowance – 1210 yards Dirt – Purse approx $9,000

Win: Exit Strategy (1) – 60% confidence

Place: Adiel (3) – 55% confidence

Show: American Ballad (5) – 50% confidence

Alternative: Sunshine Lute (2) – 30% confidence

Race notes: Opinion in this race is more balanced, with Exit Strategy (1) and Adiel (3) essentially co-favorites in analyst minds, Exit Strategy (1) getting a slight edge from repeated top nods. American Ballad (5) shows up consistently as a board-hitter with mild upset potential, while Sunshine Lute (2) is an intriguing price horse that a few analysts are willing to elevate into the top tier. Holy Bullet (6), He's A Genius (7), and Call Me Ray (8) receive relatively scattered support and look more like superfecta candidates.

Other runners include: Holy Bullet (6), He's A Genius (7), Call Me Ray (8).

Race 9 – Allowance – 1320 yards Dirt – Purse approx $10,000

Win: Right For You (3) – 75% confidence

Place: Mark It Down (5) – 70% confidence

Show: Julia's Promise (1) – 55% confidence

Alternative: Bye Bye Holley (6) – 25% confidence

Race notes: Analysts are very tightly aligned that Right For You (3) and Mark It Down (5) form a strong win-exacta axis, with repeated top-two mentions for both. Julia's Promise (1) is almost always referenced as a live player for the trifecta and an occasional upset candidate if the top pair regress. Bye Bye Holley (6) and Sapello Samba (8) are sparsely cited as deeper value inclusions, while Run Away Bay (2), Honky Tonk Honey (4), Trust Anabelle (7), and Queen Hadassah (9) are rarely highlighted.

Other runners include: Run Away Bay (2), Honky Tonk Honey (4), Sapello Samba (8), Trust Anabelle (7), Queen Hadassah (9).

Race 10 – Maiden Special Weight – 1210 yards Dirt – Purse approx $10,000

Win: My Nekoda (1) – 85% confidence

Place: Made American (9) – 65% confidence

Show: Hold My Scotch (3) – 45% confidence

Alternative: South Of Richmond (4) – 30% confidence

Race notes: My Nekoda (1) is the clearest key on the card, with nearly every analyst singling this runner on the win line and reinforcing the case with strong speed figures and favorable trainer stats. Made American (9) and Hold My Scotch (3) consistently rate as the two most likely to complete exactas and trifectas, with Made American (9) particularly well respected as a logical second choice. South Of Richmond (4) is a classic speculative debut type that appears in some sharper takes as a live longshot, while Mendocina (2), Mark My Kiss (5), Comfort Cash (6), Sombrero Negro (7), and Nightly Peace (8) mostly profile as deeper tickets filler.

Other runners include: Mendocina (2), Mark My Kiss (5), Comfort Cash (6), Sombrero Negro (7), Nightly Peace (8).

Recommended Exotic Plays by Race

Race 1 – Recommended Exotics

Analysts' focus on Citizen Barrett (4) over Expo City (6) makes the logical core an exacta box with those two, with Karaoke Hero (1) and Toni The Grrreat (3) as key third-place anchors in trifectas. A structure such as 4,6 over 1,3,4,6 over 1,3,4,5,6 leverages the clear top pair while allowing Street Colors (5) to blow up the bottom of the ticket at a price.

Race 2 – Recommended Exotics

Red Leader (6) and Sweet River Baines (5) form a near-obligatory exacta core, and analysts would likely recommend pressing 6 over 5,3,7 more heavily than the reverse. Trifectas using 6 over 5 over 1,2,3,7 and smaller backup tickets 6 over 3,7 over 5,1,2,3,7 capture the scenario where one of the second-tier starters outruns their odds.

Race 3 – Recommended Exotics

With Daux (5) and One Mark (2) widely perceived as superior, an exacta 5–2 and 2–5 is a natural starting point, with Three Martinis (3) as the most consistent trifecta third-place inclusion. Analysts' writings suggest superfecta players might lean toward 5,2 over 5,2,3 over 1,3,4,6 over 1,3,4,6, balancing form and potential improvement from American Solo (6) or Dora's Storm (4).

Race 4 – Recommended Exotics

Catmansue (5) looks like a classic single in vertical plays, encouraging exactas 5 over 1,2,3 and “press” tickets 5 over 1,2 with higher base amounts. Trifectas 5 over 1,2 over 1,2,3,4,6 and small saver tickets 1 over 5 over 2,3 cover the possibility that Moonshine Mischief (1) moves forward second off the break and outruns the favorite.

Race 5 – Recommended Exotics

Be A Pro (7) is a likely key horse in doubles and pick 3s, and analysts would probably structure verticals around 7 over 3,4,6 in exactas. A practical trifecta grid is 7 over 3,4 over 1,2,3,4,5,6, with a small backup 3,4 over 7 over 3,4,6, acknowledging the possibility that a pace meltdown brings Tatas Joe Mark (6) into deeper exotics.

Race 6 – Recommended Exotics

Given how strongly Punkin Puddin (6) is touted, many analysts would simply single 6 in multi-race wagers and lean heavily on 6-centered exactas and trifectas. One efficient approach is 6 over 1,4 over 1,2,3,4,6,8 plus a modest saver 1,4 over 6 over 1,2,3,4,6,8 to protect against a flukish pace setup.

Race 7 – Recommended Exotics

Thatsaterriblidea (3) and Mo Money Molly (1) dominate analyst attention, making exacta 3–1 a primary play, with 1–3 as a saver in case the pace scenario favors the inside speed. Trifectas 3 over 1 over 4,5,6,7 and 3 over 4,7 over 1,4,5,6,7 exploit upside opinions on Shez Punctual (4) and Ms Tres Morena (7) as late-running value types.

Race 8 – Recommended Exotics

Because opinion is more divided, exotics here should be spread wider, anchoring mostly on Exit Strategy (1), Adiel (3), and American Ballad (5). An analyst-style structure would be 1,3 over 1,3,5 over 1,2,3,5,6,7,8 for trifectas, while a superfecta 1,3 over 1,3,5 over 1,2,3,5 over all tries to capture chaos in the lower rungs.

Race 9 – Recommended Exotics

Right For You (3) and Mark It Down (5) are the clear exacta foundation, and 3–5 should be pressed relative to 5–3 given the slightly stronger win consensus on Right for You (3). Trifectas 3,5 over 1,3,5 over 1,3,5,6,8 and a small win-place saver on Julia's Promise (1) fit how analysts frame this as a “three-deep” race at the top.

Race 10 – Recommended Exotics

Analysts strongly favor singling My Nekoda (1) in all multi-race bets, building exactas 1–9 and 1–3 as primary tickets. Trifectas 1 over 3,9 over 2,3,4,5,8,9 and a small box 1,3,9 are logical representations of the widely shared view that these three have a clear edge over the rest.

Value Play Observations

Value Play Observations

Analyst commentary suggests some runners may be underlaid relative to their consensus support, notably heavy favorites like Catmansue (5), Punkin Puddin (6), and My Nekoda (1), whose implied public odds may fall below their already high consensus probabilities; bettors should be careful not to over-press win bets at very short prices. In contrast, horses such as Toni The Grrreat (3) in Race 1, Panuco (3) and Runningintherain (7) in Race 2, and Ms Tres Morena (7) in Race 7 appear in multiple expert writeups despite likely offering mid-range or double-digit odds, marking them as overlays to key underneath.

Races with split opinions like Race 3 and Race 8 inherently create potential value, since the market may concentrate too heavily on one of the co-favored narratives while leaving the other at a better price; for example, any divergence between Daux (5) and One Mark (2) prices can be exploited by backing the less-bet of the two. Similarly, in Race 8, if Exit Strategy (1) gets hammered at the windows while Adiel (3) and American Ballad (5) drift, the consensus still respects all three, suggesting the longer-priced option may offer superior expected value.

Late on the card, the clear popularity of Right For You (3) and Mark It Down (5) in Race 9 and My Nekoda (1) and Made American (9) in Race 10 could produce underlays on the obvious combinations (such as exacta 3–5 or 1–9), so analysts would likely recommend emphasizing vertical structures that include these horses but also integrate at least one price play, like Bye Bye Holley (6) in Race 9 or South Of Richmond (4) in Race 10. For experienced bettors, identifying these lightly mentioned but still credible horses and pairing them with the chalk is the main path to positive expected value across this card.

Overall Wagering Strategy

Overall Wagering Strategy

Across the Sunland Park card, several races feature very strong analyst consensus that can anchor a structured wagering approach. The clearest single-type races are Race 4 with Catmansue (5), Race 6 with Punkin Puddin (6), Race 7 with Thatsaterriblidea (3), Race 9 where the axis of Right For You (3) and Mark It Down (5) is dominant, and especially Race 10 with My Nekoda (1) commanding overwhelming support. These races provide natural focal points for larger win bets at acceptable prices and for leaning heavily in multi-race sequences such as daily doubles, pick 3s, and pick 4s.

In contrast, Race 3 and Race 8 present as split-opinion contests where analysts are divided between two or three main contenders, suggesting more volatility and opportunity for value. In Race 3, the tension between Daux (5) and One Mark (2) implies that constructing tickets that treat them as co-equal “A” horses, while sprinkling in Three Martinis (3) and American Solo (6) as “B” or “C” types, better reflects the uncertainty. Race 8 similarly invites a spread strategy, with Exit Strategy (1), Adiel (3), and American Ballad (5) all drawing notable support; rather than over-committing to a single narrative, bettors should allocate coverage proportionally, allowing price to dictate which one becomes the main win focus.

Looking at multi-race sequences, the back half of the card appears especially attractive. One practical approach is to key off Punkin Puddin (6) in Race 6, Thatsaterriblidea (3) in Race 7, and a spread of Exit Strategy (1) and Adiel (3) in Race 8, followed by the strong two-horse axis in Race 9 and a heavy lean on My Nekoda (1) in Race 10. This combination offers both a solid base of high-confidence legs and one or two races (notably Race 8) where a correctly chosen alternative can generate outsized returns, even without a massive upset. Early on, Race 2's consensus around Red Leader (6) and Sweet River Baines (5) also supports constructing early daily doubles and early pick 3 tickets that revolve around this pair as primary A-line runners.

From an exotic value standpoint, races with high-confidence favorites but credible underneath chaos—such as Race 1, Race 2, Race 5, and Race 9—are fertile ground for vertical wagers like trifectas and superfectas. In these spots, analysts would generally recommend “leaning on” the consensus favorite in the win slot while rotating a larger group of mid-priced and longshot runners underneath, particularly those highlighted in multiple analyses, such as Toni The Grrreat (3), Panuco (3), Runningintherain (7), and Ms Tres Morena (7). Structurally, narrow-on-top, wide-underneath tickets can be built efficiently using 1×3×5 or 1×4×6 patterns, which keep total cost in check yet still capture the majority of realistic upset permutations in the lower positions.

Finally, while no extreme weather or track-bias notes appear in the available analyst materials for this card, Sunland Park's dirt surface can reward forwardly placed runners and tactical speed, especially in shorter sprints such as Races 2, 6, 8, and 10. The consensus itself often reflects that dynamic, with several top selections being horses that either show early pace or tactical stalking ability, so bettors should be inclined to upgrade early-speed types in contentious races and downgrade deep closers who will need significant race flow assistance. The key takeaways from this card are to embrace the strongest consensus horses as structural anchors, use split-opinion races like Race 3 and Race 8 as leverage points for price-sensitive decisions, and reserve the widest spreads for vertical exotics in fields where a dominant favorite is likely to win but where the analyst landscape hints at substantial uncertainty underneath.

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