Pick Pony Picks – Consensus Expert Picks for Tampa Bay Downs, March 13, 2026.


Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

Pick Pony takes pride in providing the most accurate expert picks available today. Pick Pony Expert Picks are carefully selected by our team of analysts based on analytics from our advanced Past Performance Sheets and Racing Forms. For potential longshot selections, check out Pick Pony's AI Picks.

Race 1 – Allowance Optional Claiming – 1540 yards – Dirt – Purse: not listed

Win: Mary's Lad (IRE) (5) – 40% confidence
Place: Canuto (2) – 30% confidence
Show: Embrace My Uncle (7) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Doroteo (3) – 10% confidence

Race notes: Analysts are most aligned on Mary's Lad (IRE) (5) and Canuto (2), with repeated top billing suggesting a relatively formful outcome, while Embrace My Uncle (7) holds solid underneath appeal off recent local form. The inclusion of Doroteo (3) as a fringe alternative indicates some depth but less conviction, which may slightly soften single-race win confidence despite multiple converging opinions.

Other runners include: Troops (1), Jonathan's Song (4), Develop Product (6)

Race 2 – Claiming – 1320 yards – Dirt – Purse: not listed

Win: Float On (2) – 30% confidence
Place: My Man Woody (3) – 25% confidence
Show: Ronic (5) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Machismo (10) – 25% confidence

Race notes: Opinions are scattered, but Float On (2) and My Man Woody (3) consistently appear in the top tier, implying a modest class edge and reliability at this level. Ronic (5) and Machismo (10) offer more speculative upside with divided support, creating a race profile that invites spreading rather than leaning on a single key.

Other runners include: Russian Hammer (1), Imtakinittothebank (4), Star Kanoo (7), Eightysixchevy (8), Limit Up (9)

Race 3 – Claiming – 1320 yards – Dirt – Purse: not listed

Win: Circle Back Jack (5) – 35% confidence
Place: Reverend Moon (6) – 30% confidence
Show: Happy Instead (8) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Ace Ventura (CHI) (7) – 15% confidence

Race notes: Circle Back Jack (5) has broad support as the most likely winner, but Reverend Moon (6) is close enough in analyst preference to keep the outcome from being a foregone conclusion. Happy Instead (8) and Ace Ventura (CHI) (7) profile as volatile but live underneath players, especially if the top pair hook up early.

Other runners include: Newyearsblockparty (1), Osprey (2), Supreme Song (3), Estilo Magico (4), Mithridates (9), Lee Ann's Warrior (10)

Race 4 – Maiden Claiming – 1210 yards – Dirt – Purse: not listed

Win: Miss Uproar (7) – 60% confidence
Place: Blue Ice (8) – 15% confidence
Show: She's Our D N A (9) – 10% confidence
Alternative: That Thing You Do (11) – 15% confidence

Race notes: Miss Uproar (7) is clearly the focal point, drawing a strong majority of top selections and projecting as one of the day's more reliable favorites if she runs to expectations. Blue Ice (8), She's Our D N A (9), and That Thing You Do (11) form a logical supporting cast, but their more limited backing suggests they are better used defensively in multi-horse structures.

Other runners include: Queen Of Spirits (1), Nana Moon (2), Gone A Lil West (3), Tranquila Ruby (4), Classy Kay (5), E Complicato (6), Princess Honor (12), Jenn Sweet Jenn (10)

Race 5 – Maiden Claiming – 8 furlongs – Turf – Purse: not listed

Win: Grand Liam (9) – 70% confidence
Place: Neostar (8) – 10% confidence
Show: Xiao Long (12) – 10% confidence
Alternative: Dominator C. (4) – 10% confidence

Race notes: Grand Liam (9) is the most dominant consensus choice on the card, with repeated strong endorsements and short morning-line support pointing toward a likely chalky outcome. Neostar (8), Xiao Long (12), and Dominator C. (4) have enough scattered respect to shape the exotics, but their lower consensus suggests the key decision is how aggressively to lean on Grand Liam (9) in vertical and horizontal plays.

Other runners include: Last Bottle (1), Shinyhappygroovy (2), Spurious (3), Senor Resplandor (5), Resurgo (6), Madcap (7), Virgin Island Nice (10), America Lives (11), Great Hunt (13)

Race 6 – Maiden Claiming – 1540 yards – Dirt – Purse: not listed

Win: Night Raven (1) – 45% confidence
Place: Turbo Fire (5) – 20% confidence
Show: Lighting Arrow (6) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Strong Temptation (2) – 15% confidence

Race notes: Night Raven (1) attracts the most win support but not to the level of an absolute standout, making him a logical but beatable anchor. Turbo Fire (5), Lighting Arrow (6), and Strong Temptation (2) collectively represent a deep set of alternatives, supporting the notion that trip and pace may be decisive in sorting a fairly even field.

Other runners include: Chance On Me (3), Fast Prince (4), Roux Bucherro (7), Cousin Vinny (8), Runaway Rooster (9)

Race 7 – Claiming – 8 furlongs – Turf – Purse: not listed

Win: North Ship (6) – 50% confidence
Place: Alrasikh (1) – 25% confidence
Show: Sky Masterson (7) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Moralito (5) – 10% confidence

Race notes: Analysts largely view North Ship (6) and Alrasikh (1) as the key pair, with multiple sources highlighting them as the class of the race off recent wins and improving form. Sky Masterson (7) and Moralito (5) rate as more speculative pieces who could outrun their odds if the principals fail to fire or the pace collapses in the lane.

Other runners include: Boy O' Boy (3), Ramesses (4), Intolerable (2), Ragman (8), Deportivo (9), Mungo (10), Mr Business (11), El Bailador (12), Starship Magellan (13)

Race 8 – Claiming – 1320 yards – Dirt – Purse: not listed

Win: Rainbow's Pride (6) – 45% confidence
Place: Mor Spring Spirit (3) – 25% confidence
Show: Power Attack (1) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Raydar Control (4) – 10% confidence

Race notes: Rainbow's Pride (6) and Mor Spring Spirit (3) form a strong analytical axis, with several opinions converging on their current form and course affinity as key advantages. Power Attack (1) and Raydar Control (4) provide tactical alternatives and may be especially interesting if the main pair take overwhelming tote support, opening exotics value on modestly backed but capable rivals.

Other runners include: Samurai Prince (5), Go Otto Go (7), Rocket Dragon (8), Capture The Time (9), Toddchero (2)

Race 9 – Claiming – 8 furlongs 110 yards – Turf – Purse: not listed

Win: Americandreammaker (6) – 55% confidence
Place: Cocktail Kisses (10) – 25% confidence
Show: D'argento Bolt (9) – 10% confidence
Alternative: Awesome Campaign (13) – 10% confidence

Race notes: Americandreammaker (6) dominates the analyst landscape and profiles as a quintessential “banker” in horizontals, with Cocktail Kisses (10) repeatedly endorsed as the main danger. D'argento Bolt (9) and Awesome Campaign (13) offer late-running upside and appear on enough cards to warrant inclusion in deeper exotics, particularly if the favorite's price becomes prohibitive.

Other runners include: Promaja (1), Kuku (2), High Hearts (3), Major Mayhem (4), Eazy Whirled (5), Jaantje (7), Apple Shake Shake (8), My Gal (11), Patient Fi (12), Better Have Cash (14)

Recommended Exotic Plays by Race

Race 1 – Recommended Exotics

Analysts' concentration on Mary's Lad (IRE) (5), Canuto (2), and Embrace My Uncle (7) suggests a relatively top-heavy structure, so an exacta box 2–5–7 and a trifecta leaning 5 over 2,7 over 2,3,7 may track the consensus while admitting a mild upset from Doroteo (3). More aggressive players could key Mary's Lad (IRE) (5) on top in superfectas with 2,3,7 in the second and third spots and a wider spread in fourth, using Troops (1) and Develop Product (6) as longshot closers.

Race 2 – Recommended Exotics

Given the fragmented views, analysts would likely recommend spreading in verticals, with a trifecta that uses Float On (2), My Man Woody (3), Ronic (5), and Machismo (10) in all slots and sprinkles in price horses like Limit Up (9) and Star Kanoo (7). Exacta savers focusing on 2–3 and 3–5 in both directions can protect against the most common opinion while still allowing prices to filter in underneath.

Race 3 – Recommended Exotics

With Circle Back Jack (5) and Reverend Moon (6) emerging as the main win candidates, an exacta 5–6 and 6–5 represents the analyst core, while trifectas that key 5 and 6 in the first two positions and use Happy Instead (8), Ace Ventura (CHI) (7), and Osprey (2) for third match the broader view. Superfecta players might modestly expand to include Newyearsblockparty (1) and Supreme Song (3) in the fourth slot to leverage any collapse among overbet favorites.

Race 4 – Recommended Exotics

Miss Uproar (7) projects as the central lever, so a single-on-top structure in exactas and trifectas such as 7 over 8,9,11 over 1,5,8,9,10,11 mirrors analyst confidence. For those wary of a layoff or trip issue, a saver exacta box 7–8–11 captures the other most respected types while still emphasizing the perceived talent gap over the remainder of the field.

Race 5 – Recommended Exotics

Analysts' overwhelming support for Grand Liam (9) suggests he is a natural single in vertical and horizontal sequences; a trifecta 9 over 4,8,12 over 1,3,4,5,6,8,10,12 reflects the consensus that the rest of the field is more evenly matched. Players hunting value might box Neostar (8), Xiao Long (12), and Dominator C. (4) in a secondary trifecta or even a small superfecta that uses Grand Liam (9) in second, anticipating a rare regression scenario at what should be short odds.

Race 6 – Recommended Exotics

With Night Raven (1) as the most common top selection but with meaningful support for Turbo Fire (5) and Lighting Arrow (6), an exacta three-horse box 1–5–6 is consistent with analyst positioning. A more nuanced trifecta could key Night Raven (1) first and second with 2,4,5,6 in the remaining slots, acknowledging that Strong Temptation (2) and Fast Prince (4) have enough backing to upset or fill out exotics if the pace melts down.

Race 7 – Recommended Exotics

Analysts broadly indicate that North Ship (6) and Alrasikh (1) hold the strongest win chances, so an exacta 1–6 and 6–1, with a third slot in trifectas reserved mainly for Sky Masterson (7) and Moralito (5), reflects that structure. For more speculative coverage, adding Deportivo (9) and Mr Business (11) in the lower rungs of trifectas and superfectas can exploit their minor but noteworthy mention without committing heavy win capital.

Race 8 – Recommended Exotics

Rainbow's Pride (6) and Mor Spring Spirit (3) anchor most analyst opinions, making them natural keys in exactas and trifectas; a common structure would be 3,6 over 1,3,4,6 over 1,2,3,4,6,9. Players seeking to capitalize on potential mispricing in Power Attack (1) and Raydar Control (4) might mix them more aggressively into second and third, particularly if the main pair attract disproportionate win-pool attention.

Race 9 – Recommended Exotics

With Americandreammaker (6) as a strong focal point and Cocktail Kisses (10) the clear second choice among analysts, an exacta 6–10 and 10–6 is the natural starting point. Trifectas and superfectas that extend to D'argento Bolt (9), Awesome Campaign (13), and High Hearts (3) in the minor slots can align with the broader view while still harnessing upside if one of the price horses sneaks into the frame behind the consensus pair.

Value Play Observations

Analysts' unanimity on Grand Liam (9) and near-unanimity on Americandreammaker (6) and Miss Uproar (7) imply that these horses may be underlaid relative to their actual winning probabilities, especially if public bettors follow the same narratives and compress the win odds below fair value. Conversely, horses like Neostar (8), Xiao Long (12), and Awesome Campaign (13) receive respectable but secondary analyst support and could be overlaid if the market focuses too heavily on the headliners, creating profitable opportunities in exotics and smaller win bets at inflated prices.

Middle-confidence races such as Race 2 and Race 6, where opinions are more evenly divided, are fertile ground for overlays, as horses like Ronic (5), Machismo (10), Turbo Fire (5), and Strong Temptation (2) may be dismissed on the tote despite being legitimate win candidates in the analyst models. The key for value-minded bettors is to exploit these discrepancies selectively, emphasizing overlays in races with inherently higher uncertainty while avoiding overcommitting to short-priced consensus favorites whose odds do not compensate for their residual risk.

Overall Wagering Strategy

Across the card, the strongest consensus races are Race 4, Race 5, and Race 9, where Miss Uproar (7), Grand Liam (9), and Americandreammaker (6) respectively command clear majority support and appear repeatedly as top selections in independent opinions. These runners serve as natural structural pillars in both vertical and horizontal wagers, and their presence allows bettors to reduce combinations and increase stake sizes in those sequences where they are used as singles, accepting that occasional upsets are offset by significantly improved efficiency when they win.

In contrast, Race 2 and Race 6 fall into the split-opinion category, with several plausible winners and no single horse attracting overwhelming analyst allegiance, which increases both volatility and potential return. In these events, bettors are better served by widening coverage and avoiding aggressive singling; instead, they can use multi-horse spreads in pick sequences, or construct trifectas that combine multiple mid-priced runners, recognizing that the analytical tension reflects an underlying parity in form.

From a multi-race perspective, one logical approach is to build a late pick 4 or pick 3 that leans heavily on Grand Liam (9) in Race 5, North Ship (6) or Alrasikh (1) in Race 7, Rainbow's Pride (6) or Mor Spring Spirit (3) in Race 8, and Americandreammaker (6) in Race 9, treating the more contentious races earlier in the card as either stand-alone exotic opportunities or as legs where coverage is deliberately wider. Because these consensus anchors cluster more toward the middle and end of the program, bettors can calibrate bankroll by starting with modest outlays in early sequences and ramping up investment once the card transitions into the more predictable stretch of races.

Exotic value is most likely to arise where the consensus is broad but not overwhelming and where several second-tier horses retain realistic winning chances, which describes Races 1, 3, 6, and 8 in particular. In these races, superfecta and trifecta structures that lean on the favored consensus horses in the top slots but intentionally include multiple moderately regarded runners in third and fourth can generate substantial returns if the public over-concentrates on a narrower subset than the analysts' distributions imply, especially in larger fields where minor upsets in underneath positions have outsized effects on payouts.

Environmental and track factors from recent Tampa Bay Downs reports suggest a fair but occasionally pace-sensitive main track and turf course, which means that tactical speed and trip efficiency remain critical but no single running style has been systematically advantaged in the short term. Bettors should monitor live track conditions and early-race pace outcomes closely; if a clear bias emerges, it may warrant adjusting reliance on certain consensus selections whose running styles clash with evolving realities, particularly in races where analysts already express only moderate confidence.

The key takeaways are that bettors should embrace Grand Liam (9), Americandreammaker (6), and Miss Uproar (7) as structural keystones while still demanding fair prices, expand coverage and seek overlays in the more contentious races like Race 2 and Race 6, and use the clustering of high-confidence opinions in mid-to-late races to frame efficient pick 3 and pick 4 tickets. Within that framework, the best opportunities will come from balancing the stability of consensus with targeted contrarian positions on well-supported but potentially underbet runners, ensuring that bankroll is allocated where analytical and market inefficiencies intersect most favorably.

Comments

No comments yet. Why don’t you start the discussion?

Talkback