Pick Pony Picks – Consensus Expert Picks for Turfway Park, March 20, 2026.

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Race 1 – Starter Allowance – 1 mile (8f) – Tapeta – Purse not listed – WIN + EXACTA

Win: Silver Quarters (5) 🥇 – 40% confidence
Place: Gucci Man (6) 🥈 – 30% confidence
Show: Faster (4) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Catalina Cat (2) – 10% confidence

Race notes: Analysts cluster strongly around Silver Quarters (5) and Gucci Man (6) as the key win candidates, with Faster (4) consistently rated as a solid underneath piece rather than the primary win play. Catalina Cat (2) draws some support as a late inclusion in exotics, suggesting mild upset potential but not a primary single. Other runners include: Streamsong (1), King Of Kentucky (3), Bay Street Money (7), Sagittarius (8).

Race 2 – Maiden Claiming – 6.5f (1430y) – Tapeta – Purse available on entries

Win: Belle Of Liberty (7) 🥉 – 45% confidence
Place: Hope Rising (6) – 35% confidence
Show: Shez Twisted (5) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Noulikeabook (3) – 5% confidence

Race notes: This race shows a strong but not absolute tilt toward Belle Of Liberty (7) and Hope Rising (6), who dominate the win and exacta discussions. Shez Twisted (5) and Noulikeabook (3) project as logical underneath pieces for tris and supers rather than primary win threats. Other runners include: Screeched In (1), Loving Mischief (2), Mother Lode (8), Hardly Ready (9).

Race 3 – Maiden Claiming – 6.5f (1430y) – Tapeta – Purse available on entries

Win: Itchy (6) – 55% confidence
Place: Captain Gabe (4) 🥈 – 25% confidence
Show: Vino Subito (3) 🥇 – 15% confidence
Alternative: Rippin (1) – 5% confidence

Race notes: Analysts are heavily aligned on Itchy (6) as the likeliest winner, giving this race one of the clearest single candidates on the card. Captain Gabe (4) and Vino Subito (3) are widely respected but mostly slotted as exacta and trifecta companions rather than alternatives to the top choice. Other runners include: Circle The Storm (2), Race For Cover (5), Playonwords (7).

Race 4 – Claiming – 6.5f (1430y) – Tapeta – Purse available on entries

Win: Hilarious Affair (1) – 35% confidence
Place: Crowned Jewel (4) 🥉 – 30% confidence
Show: On Palm Sunday (5) – 25% confidence
Alternative: Masen (7) 🥇 – 10% confidence

Race notes: Opinion in this claiming event is more diffuse, with three horses—Hilarious Affair (1), Crowned Jewel (4), and On Palm Sunday (5)—sharing most of the projected win equity. Masen (7) is treated as a capable fresh threat but more often appears in supporting roles. Other runners include: Ready To Roll (2), Ready Pursuit (3), Hometown Hero (6), English Tide (8), Caballo Feliz (9), Dontkissdaminister (10).

Race 5 – Allowance Optional Claiming – 8f 110y – Tapeta – Purse available on entries

Win: Skyro (6) 🥈 – 35% confidence
Place: Clyde's Got A Gun (10) – 30% confidence
Show: Bullard (12) 🥉 – 25% confidence
Alternative: Siesta Key (1) – 10% confidence

Race notes: Analysts consistently highlight Skyro (6), Clyde's Got A Gun (10), and Bullard (12) as the core of the race, with sequencing of those three depending on emphasis on recency versus upside. Siesta Key (1) is acknowledged as a live longshot-type win threat but is more frequently used to spice up vertical exotics. Other runners include: Izzy D'oro (2), Urban Planner (3), Special Justice (4), Sugoi (5), Big To Do (7), Friar Newton (8), Just A Fair Shake (9), Army Officer (13), Azoi (14).

Race 6 – Maiden Claiming – 6f (1320y) – Tapeta – Purse available on entries

Win: Calling On Heaven (4) – 60% confidence
Place: Hellacious (5) 🥉 – 20% confidence
Show: Love In Lights (7) 🥇 – 15% confidence
Alternative: Sinatra (6) – 5% confidence

Race notes: Calling On Heaven (4) has one of the strongest consensus profiles on the card, with analysts repeatedly making this runner their top choice off consistent form and class. Hellacious (5) and Love In Lights (7) are broadly respected as logical chasing types, while Sinatra (6) tends to appear as a deeper exotic add rather than a primary threat. Other runners include: J David (1), Barstool (2), Easy Dial (3), El Oso (8).

Race 7 – Allowance Optional Claiming – 6f (1320y) – Tapeta – Purse available on entries

Win: Fantastical (1) – 45% confidence
Place: Girl Of My Dreams (2) – 30% confidence
Show: Marmalade Skye (6) 🥇 – 15% confidence
Alternative: Ripassare (4) 🥈 – 10% confidence

Race notes: Fantastical (1) emerges as a narrow but meaningful consensus top choice, helped by recent course-and-distance success and broad analyst support. Girl Of My Dreams (2) and Marmalade Skye (6) both project as very live exacta and trifecta players, while Ripassare (4) is treated as a talented but slightly more volatile alternative. Other runners include: Baby No Worries (3), Just An Opinion (5).

Race 8 – Claiming – 1 mile (8f) – Tapeta – Purse available on entries – WIN + TRIFECTA

Win: Scoville (8) 🥇 – 50% confidence
Place: Rachael's Wagon (5) 🥈 – 30% confidence
Show: Coasting By (3) 🥉 – 15% confidence
Alternative: Connect The Brocks (1) – 5% confidence

Race notes: Analysts are notably aligned on Scoville (8) as the most likely winner, aided by recent course form and a small edge in perceived class. Rachael's Wagon (5) and Coasting By (3) are repeatedly identified as key underneath pieces and valid win savers, while Connect The Brocks (1) offers some tactical appeal as a lower-percentage alternative. Other runners include: Cue Country Roads (2), It Takes A Cowboy (4), K's Storm Ready (6), Il Marchesse (7), White Blue (9), Moonrise Drive (10).

Race 9 – Claiming – 6.5f (1430y) – Tapeta – Purse available on entries

Win: Don't Cross Alexis (10) – 40% confidence
Place: Couldyoubeloved (6) 🥇 – 30% confidence
Show: Hand It Over (9) – 20% confidence
Alternative: But Seriously (3) 🥈 – 10% confidence

Race notes: This claiming sprint has a fairly clear pecking order headed by Don't Cross Alexis (10) and Couldyoubeloved (6), who receive the bulk of the win calls across analysts. Hand It Over (9) and But Seriously (3) are consistently used underneath, making this a race where many analysts play a narrow four-horse box in verticals. Other runners include: Army Girl (1), Pretti Boujee (2), Tricky Furey (4), I'm A Cookie Lover (5), Extreme Dream (7), Fifth Wheel (8), Mo Indian Lady (11).

Race 10 – Maiden Claiming – 8f 110y – Tapeta – Purse available on entries

Win: Bravitas (8) – 45% confidence
Place: Hyperbolize (5) 🥇 – 35% confidence
Show: Otzelberger (2) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Keen Talent (3) – 5% confidence

Race notes: Analysts view this finale as a two-horse affair between Bravitas (8) and Hyperbolize (5), with most expecting one of them to break through at this level. Otzelberger (2) and Keen Talent (3) are seen as viable underneath pieces and defensive win savers rather than true co-favorites. Other runners include: Highlighter (1), Bar Fight (4), Turnbuckle (6), Ando (7), Ton A Laughs (9), Kick It In (10), Jinxzi (11), Very Tall Somethin (12).

Recommended Exotic Plays by Race

Race 1 – Recommended Exotics

Analysts' alignment around Silver Quarters (5), Gucci Man (6), and Faster (4) supports an exacta and trifecta strategy keyed over those three, with Catalina Cat (2) as the main price play to include underneath. A recommended structure is exacta boxes using Silver Quarters (5), Gucci Man (6), and Faster (4), and trifecta wheels 5,6 over 2,4,5,6 over 2,4,5,6,7 for coverage that leans on the two main win candidates while still capturing a Bay Street Money (7) upset in the lower rungs.

Race 2 – Recommended Exotics

Given the strong consensus around Belle Of Liberty (7) and Hope Rising (6), analysts would likely favor a narrow exacta and trifecta approach, anchoring those two in the top spots. A common construction is exacta 7,6 over 7,6,5,3 and trifectas 7,6 over 7,6,5,3 over 7,6,5,3, with Shez Twisted (5) and Noulikeabook (3) filling out the verticals.

Race 3 – Recommended Exotics

With Itchy (6) a clear consensus top choice, many analysts would structure exactas and trifectas around that runner as a key or strong single. Exacta strategies such as 6 over 4,3,1 and 6,4 over 6,4,3,1, plus trifectas 6 over 4,3,1 over 4,3,1,5,7, capture the main opinion while allowing for price horses like Race For Cover (5) and Playonwords (7) to spice up the bottom.

Race 4 – Recommended Exotics

The split opinion among Hilarious Affair (1), Crowned Jewel (4), and On Palm Sunday (5) points to multi-horse boxes rather than a hard single. Analysts would likely recommend exacta boxes using 1,4,5 and trifectas 1,4,5 over 1,4,5,7 over 1,2,4,5,7, with Masen (7) as a key alternative to include in all deeper verticals.

Race 5 – Recommended Exotics

Skyro (6), Clyde's Got A Gun (10), and Bullard (12) form a natural trifecta core, with Siesta Key (1) a logical fourth for broader coverage. Analysts are likely to suggest exacta boxes among 6,10,12 and trifecta or superfecta constructions like 6,10,12 over 1,6,10,12 over 1,2,6,10,12, looking to catch a mild upset while retaining a tight opinion on the main contenders.

Race 6 – Recommended Exotics

With Calling On Heaven (4) a strong consensus choice, many approaches will key that runner on top while using Hellacious (5) and Love In Lights (7) most heavily underneath. Exacta plays such as 4 over 5,7,6 and 4,5 over 4,5,7,6, plus trifectas 4 over 5,7 over 5,7,6,1, create efficient leverage on the apparent class edge.

Race 7 – Recommended Exotics

Fantastical (1) and Girl Of My Dreams (2) provide a logical exacta focus, while Marmalade Skye (6) and Ripassare (4) are prominent as third and fourth players. Analysts would likely employ exacta 1,2 over 1,2,6,4 and trifectas 1,2 over 1,2,6,4 over 1,2,3,4,5,6, using Baby No Worries (3) and Just An Opinion (5) to raise payouts in deeper rungs.

Race 8 – Recommended Exotics

The repeated pairing of Scoville (8) with Rachael's Wagon (5) and Coasting By (3) argues for an exacta and trifecta strategy centered on these three. Exacta plays like 8 over 5,3,1 and 8,5 over 8,5,3,1, and trifectas 8 over 5,3 over 5,3,1,2,7,10, allow analysts to lean on Scoville (8) while still accommodating price horses like Moonrise Drive (10) or Il Marchesse (7) underneath.

Race 9 – Recommended Exotics

Given the fairly clear four-horse consensus, many analysts will confine their primary vertical action to Don't Cross Alexis (10), Couldyoubeloved (6), Hand It Over (9), and But Seriously (3). Exacta boxes of 10,6,9 and trifectas 10,6 over 10,6,9,3 over 10,6,9,3,4,5,7 line up with the projected hierarchy while allowing a horse such as Tricky Furey (4) to upset the bottom of the ticket.

Race 10 – Recommended Exotics

Analysts see Bravitas (8) and Hyperbolize (5) as the key win players, making 8–5 and 5–8 exactas a central theme. Trifectas 8,5 over 8,5,2,3 over 8,5,2,3,11,10, and superfectas anchoring 8 and 5 in the top two slots, capitalize on the top-heavy nature of the race while bringing Keen Talent (3), Otzelberger (2), and Jinxzi (11) into the mix at better prices.

Value Play Observations

Value Play Observations

Across the card, the strongest consensus singles—Itchy (6) in Race 3 and Calling On Heaven (4) in Race 6—are likely to be underlays in the win pool and in horizontal sequences, meaning their true winning chances may be more in line with mid-even money than the shorter odds they could attract. Bettors seeking value might instead emphasize these runners in verticals while looking for more generous overlays in races with divided analyst opinion, such as Race 4 and Race 5.

In the early races, Silver Quarters (5) in Race 1 and Skyro (6) in Race 5 carry strong analyst support but face several credible alternatives, suggesting that if the morning line prices are short, they may be underlays relative to their actual winning probabilities. Horses like Catalina Cat (2) in Race 1 and Siesta Key (1) in Race 5, who appear consistently in secondary slots yet may be overlooked in the win market, shape up as potential overlays if they drift to double-digit odds.

Later on the card, Fantastical (1) in Race 7 and Scoville (8) in Race 8 project as likely favorites with legitimate win chances but also face competitive fields where analyst confidence does not reach the same peak as in the clearest single races. If public money over-commits to these runners, horses like Girl Of My Dreams (2) and Rachael's Wagon (5) could represent better value plays, especially in exactas and small win savers.

Overall Wagering Strategy

Overall Wagering Strategy

From an analytical standpoint, the card offers a mix of strong consensus anchors and more contentious races that invite creative structuring. The clearest consensus races—Race 3 with Itchy (6), Race 6 with Calling On Heaven (4), and to a slightly lesser extent Race 10 with the Bravitas (8) and Hyperbolize (5) tandem—are the most suitable spots to consider as single candidates in multi-race wagers or as heavy keys in vertical exotics. These races show relatively high combined confidence percentages and repeated top rankings from independent analysts, indicating that market pressure will likely drive their odds downward, but also that they offer structural stability when building tickets.

By contrast, Race 4 and Race 5 are the primary split-opinion affairs, with several runners sharing similar analyst support and no single horse dominating projections. In these spots, attempting to force a single can be unnecessarily risky; instead, using 3–4 horses in horizontal sequences and leaning on boxes or spread tris and supers vertically better captures the inherent uncertainty. This is especially true in Race 5, where Skyro (6), Clyde's Got A Gun (10), and Bullard (12) all attract heavy attention, yet none reaches the top consensus levels seen in the strongest races on the card.

The presence of strong anchors in Races 3 and 6 encourages construction of mid-sequence horizontal bets such as a Pick 3 covering Races 4–6 or a Pick 4 spanning Races 3–6, using Itchy (6) and Calling On Heaven (4) as primary or even solo A-level inclusions. Bettors can then use broader, more aggressive spreads in the surrounding contentious races to chase value while still maintaining a high overall hit probability for the sequence. Similarly, late sequences including Races 7–10 can reasonably treat the Bravitas (8)/Hyperbolize (5) pair in Race 10 as an A/A-type combination while admitting more diversity in the earlier legs.

Exotic value is most likely to emerge in the races where analysts agree strongly on only one or two horses and then diverge substantially beyond that—Races 1, 2, 7, and 8 fit this profile. Structuring superfecta or trifecta tickets with narrow tops and wide, price-sensitive bottoms is a high-leverage approach in these spots, especially when leveraging horses the analysts mention only as secondary or “watch out for” types. By constructing wheels that lock in the consensus horses in the top positions and then use deeper spreads in third and fourth, bettors can target scenarios where the public underbets live longshots that still sit within the consensus orbit.

Environmental factors at Turfway Park, notably the Tapeta surface and typical evening conditions, tend to produce relatively consistent pace and fewer extreme biases, which increases the predictive value of form and analyst consensus. However, synthetic surfaces can reward certain running styles more consistently when pace scenarios collapse or when fields are tightly matched, so monitoring early races on the card for any emergent pattern—such as stalkers repeatedly grinding down leaders—can help fine-tune which consensus horses to emphasize. Given the mix of clear and contentious races, bettors should prioritize leveraging strong consensus opinions as structural anchors while using spread tactics and price sensitivity in the less certain events, always balancing the temptation to chase large payouts against the need to preserve bankroll through disciplined ticket construction.

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