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Race 1 – Allowance Optional Claiming – 1M Dirt – 12:40pm – $90,000
Win: #1 Points Is Points (89%)
Place: #3 Maggie Go (67%)
Show: #2 Cupid’s Heart (67%)🥈
Alternative: #5 Curlin’s Girl (44%)🥇
Points Is Points returns from a 10-week layoff after a strong win at Belmont, drawing unanimous support from analysts. Maggie Go steps back after 17 weeks off, with Chad Brown training and Flavien Prat aboard. Cupid’s Heart enters off a third-place finish and shows consistent form racing back at this level. The top three choices represent a competitive mix of recent form, class, and trainer/jockey combinations.
Race 2 – Claiming – 6 1/2F Dirt – 1:09pm – $45,000
Win: #1 Proud Foot (89%)🥈
Place: #2 Problematica (89%)
Show: #3 Jackie The Joker (33%)
Alternative: #5 Defended (22%)
Proud Foot and Problematica emerge as co-favorites with near-identical analyst support. Proud Foot brings tactical speed and track specialization with four previous Aqueduct wins. Problematica returns from a 16-week break after bolting to victory at Saratoga in her last start. The race sets up as a two-horse battle with tactical pace likely to favor stalkers.
Race 3 – Allowance Optional Claiming – 6F Dirt – 1:38pm – $90,000 BOXED EXACTA
Win: #6 Vettriano (75%)🥈
Place: #5 Victory Way (62%)🥇
Show: #1 Toxic Gray (75%)
Alternative: #3 Locke And Key (62%)🥉
Vettriano returns from a six-week freshening as the consensus choice despite outside post draw. Victory Way faces questions returning from a layoff after finishing seventh last time. Toxic Gray brings the most intrigue after 35 weeks off but has four previous Aqueduct wins. Track specialists dominate this field with multiple horses showing strong Aqueduct history.
Race 4 – Maiden Claiming – 1M Dirt – 2:08pm – $38,000 BOXED EXACTA
Win: #1 Mo Curls (100%)🥈
Place: #4 Drop Me A Dime (50%)🥇
Show: #2 Red Fern (38%)Alternative: #3 Reign It In (62%)
Mo Curls receives universal backing from all analysts making him a clear consensus favorite. The field drops to maiden claiming level with most runners seeking their first career victory. Drop Me A Dime and Red Fern provide value alternatives despite both facing class questions. Rail post gives Mo Curls tactical advantage in a race lacking established early speed.
Race 5 – Claiming – 6F Dirt – 2:37pm – $28,000
Win: #4 Open Soul Autism (75%)
Place: #5 Spiritual Lady (62%)🥇
Show: #7 Play Good Pay Good (50%)
Alternative: #8 Maggie T (38%)
Open Soul Autism seeks fourth consecutive win after strong performances at Finger Lakes. Spiritual Lady and Play Good Pay Good both trained by the Englehart barn bring dangerous late speed. The race features multiple horses stretching out or dropping in class. Pace scenario favors closers with several confirmed early speed types.
Race 6 – Starter Allowance – 1 1/8M Dirt – 3:06pm – $65,000
Win: #1 House United (62%)🥉
Place: #7 Adventurist (50%)
Show: #4 Complex Agenda (62%)
Alternative: #9 Hamilton’s Way (50%)
House United and Adventurist both enter off recent victories at Aqueduct. The nine-furlong distance tests stamina and pace distribution. Hamilton’s Way brings Flavien Prat and strong recent form as a legitimate threat. Complex Agenda adds first-time blinkers after breaking maiden last time, indicating confidence.
Race 7 – Allowance – 7F Dirt – 3:35pm – $81,000
Win: #2 Pantherian (88%)🥈
Place: #3 Wamo (62%)🥉
Show: #5 Gaming Wizard (50%)
Alternative: #1 Lawyer Mason (38%)
Pantherian looks to build on impressive maiden victory with Todd Pletcher training. Wamo won impressively last time on a sloppy track, showing versatility. Gaming Wizard drops back in class after competing at higher levels. This New York-bred allowance features several runners with upside potential.
Race 8 – Claiming – 1M Dirt – 4:04pm – $55,000 BOXED EXACTA
Win: #1 Interceptor (100%)🥈
Place: #6 Reynolds Channel (62%)🥇
Show: #5 Fully Booked (38%)
Alternative: #4 Amy’s Music (25%)
Interceptor receives unanimous support from all analysts as the clear choice. Reynolds Channel offers value as a distance specialist with tactical speed. Multiple horses enter off layoffs or class adjustments creating pace uncertainty. The one-mile distance should favor runners with tactical speed and stamina.
Recommended Exotic Bets and Value Plays
Race 1 Value Plays
Exacta Box: 1-3 provides value with two strong contenders
Trifecta Key: 1 with 3,2,5 covers the top consensus choices
Superfecta: 1/3,2/3,2,5/ALL offers coverage with small investment
Race 2 Value Plays
Exacta: 1-2 and 2-1 represent the two dominant choices
Trifecta: 1,2/1,2,3/3,5,7 captures likely scenarios
Daily Double: Race 2 (1,2) to Race 3 (6,5,1) connects strong favorites
Race 3 Value Plays
Exacta Box: 6-5-1 covers three horses with near-equal support
Trifecta: 6/5,1/5,1,3 keys top choice over contested place positions
Pick 3: Races 3-4-5 using 6,5,1 / 1 / 4,5,7 targets value sequence
Race 4 Value Plays
Exacta: 1 with 4,2,3 keys overwhelming favorite over value alternatives
Trifecta: 1/4,2,3/4,2,3,8 provides coverage beneath strong top choice
Daily Double: Race 4 (1) to Race 5 (4,5,7) connects favorites
Race 5 Value Plays
Exacta Box: 4-5-7 covers Englehart barn advantage and top choice
Trifecta: 4,5/4,5,7/4,5,7,8 spreads coverage among contenders
Pick 3: Races 5-6-7 using 4,5,7 / 1,7,9 / 2,3,5 targets value
Race 6 Value Plays
Exacta Box: 1-7-9 includes three horses with strong recent form
Trifecta: 1,7/1,7,9/1,4,7,9 provides coverage across competitive field
Pick 4: Races 6-7-8 using 1,7,9 / 2,3 / 1 connects strong sequences
Race 7 Value Plays
Exacta: 2-3 and 3-2 focuses on two dominant consensus choices
Trifecta: 2,3/2,3,5/1,5,6 covers logical scenarios
Daily Double: Race 7 (2,3) to Race 8 (1) connects favorites to close card
Race 8 Value Plays
Exacta: 1 with 6,5,4 keys universal choice over value alternatives
Trifecta: 1/6,5/6,5,4,9 provides coverage beneath strong favorite
Pick 3 closer: Races 6-7-8 using 1,7 / 2,3 / 1 targets strong finish
Pick Pony analysts identify strong multi-race sequences connecting consensus favorites across the card. The Pick 3 spanning Races 3-4-5 offers solid value targeting two strong favorites with coverage in the middle leg. The late Pick 4 from Races 5-8 provides opportunity to leverage unanimous support for Mo Curls and Interceptor while spreading across competitive middle races. Daily doubles connecting co-favorites in Race 2 to strong consensus picks in Race 3 present value opportunities. Vertical exotic plays in Races 4 and 8 where consensus is unanimous allow for deeper coverage underneath. Horizontal coverage in competitive Races 3 and 6 balances risk across horses with similar analyst support.
