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Pick Pony takes pride in providing the most accurate expert picks available today. Pick Pony Expert Picks are carefully selected by our team of analysts based on analytics from our advanced Past Performance Sheets and Racing Forms. For potential longshot selections, check out Pick Pony’s AI Picks.
Race 1 – Maiden Special Weight, 7 Furlongs, Dirt
Win: Relevate (80% Confidence)🥉
Place: Waveless (80% Confidence)🥇
Show: Formaggio (60% Confidence)🥈
Alternative: Laylani Lou (40% Confidence)
Notes: Relevate placed when fresh and seems perfectly placed for this event. Formaggio placed at Churchill Downs in a fresh run and remains an outside hope. Waveless is making a debut, while Laylani Lou could get into the money with some luck after being beaten easily last start.
Race 2 – Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile, Dirt
Win: Time To Win (100% Confidence)🥇
Place: Salvation (60% Confidence)🥈
Show: Roger Roger (60% Confidence)🥉
Alternative: Lovem Or Liam (40% Confidence)
Notes: Time To Win has placed in all three career races and rates significantly ahead of the field. Salvation was in the money last start and should be fitter. Lovem Or Liam placed at Gulfstream previously but struggled last start; consider for exotics.
Race 3 – Claiming, 6 Furlongs, Dirt
Win: Spirit Dragon (60% Confidence)🥈
Place: Shadow Surge (80% Confidence)🥇
Show: Dark Vector (60% Confidence)🥉
Alternative: Pandemic Hero (40% Confidence)
Notes: Spirit Dragon has started their career well and placed last start. Shadow Surge has won at this track previously but ran seventh recently; however, support remains strong. Dark Vector has been consistent with three placings from four runs this preparation.
Race 4 – Allowance Optional Claiming, 7 Furlongs, Dirt
Win: Acoustic Ave (80% Confidence)Place: Exact Estimate (40% Confidence)🥈
Show: Light The Way (40% Confidence)🥇
Alternative: Breslau (40% Confidence)
Notes: This race appears to be a toss-up. Acoustic Ave performs well at Aqueduct. Exact Estimate is a strong winning chance despite finishing at the rear after a break last start. Breslau surprised bettors with a win at long odds recently.
Race 5 – Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs, Dirt
Win: Three Nines Fine (83% Confidence)🥈
Place: Forever To Go (50% Confidence)
Show: Rare Society (33% Confidence)🥇Alternative: Red Velvet Cake (33% Confidence)
Notes: Forever To Go resumes after a 27-week spell and has placed in four of five previous attempts at Aqueduct. Three Nines Fine placed last start when fresh and has drawn the rails, making them a key chance. Sassetti is considered a real danger in the race.
Race 6 – Claiming, 1 Mile, Dirt
Win: Divine Grace (60% Confidence)
Place: Miss Lao (80% Confidence)🥈
Show: Spring Magic (40% Confidence)
Alternative: Foxy Cara (40% Confidence)
Notes: Divine Grace is the testing material here despite a lackluster run at Laurel Park. Miss Lao placed recently when unwanted in betting and draws well. Spring Magic is racing back at non-metro class and should not be treated lightly.
Race 7 – Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 Mile, Dirt
Win: Kings Leap (60% Confidence)
Place: Cut The Cord (60% Confidence)
Show: Russian Realm (60% Confidence)🥇
Alternative: Alan Turing (40% Confidence)🥈
Notes: Kings Leap is looking for a hat trick after two consecutive wins. Cut The Cord is in strong form with two wins from six attempts this campaign. Alan Turing has been consistent and narrowly missed last start.
Race 8 – Claiming, 7 Furlongs, Dirt
Win: Smilensaycheese (60% Confidence)
Place: Frizzante (60% Confidence)🥇
Show: Aero Star (20% Confidence)
Alternative: Jungle Glow (20% Confidence)
Notes: Smilensaycheese won last start after a let-up and is a big chance. Frizzante narrowly missed as the favorite last time and has previous success at this track. Complex Music narrowly missed recently and is a solid option for exotics.
Recommended Exotic Bets and Value Plays
Pick Pony analysts have identified the following value opportunities based on the consensus data.
Race 1 Exacta Box: Relevate / Waveless
With Relevate showing 80% confidence and Waveless also at 80% despite being a debut runner or lower on points, these two form a standout pair for a secure exacta play.
Race 2 Key Bet: Time To Win
Time To Win is a unanimous top selection (100% confidence) across multiple analysts. This horse makes an excellent “key” for trifecta or superfecta wagers, with Salvation and Roger Roger filling out the minor placings.
Race 3 Value Play: Shadow Surge
While Spirit Dragon leads on points, Shadow Surge appears in more analyst lists (80% confidence) and may offer better value if the morning line holds. Using Shadow Surge in the Place/Show slot or boxing with Spirit Dragon is recommended.
Race 4 Upset Potential: Light The Way
Despite Acoustic Ave leading the consensus, Light The Way garnered top selection status from multiple experts. Including Light The Way in multi-race wagers (Pick 3/Pick 4) provides coverage against the favorites.
Race 5 Trifecta: Three Nines Fine / Forever To Go / Rare Society
Three Nines Fine has the highest confidence rating (83%) in a competitive field. Boxing these three provides comprehensive coverage of the most likely outcomes.
Race 6 Value Play: Miss Lao
Miss Lao has high confidence (80%) but is often listed below the favorite Divine Grace. This indicates a strong potential for a Place/Show finish at good odds, or even an upset win.
Race 8 Longshot: Jungle Glow
Jungle Glow appears as a top pick from one analyst despite lower consensus elsewhere. In a claiming race like this, including a potential upsetter in the Alternative slot of your superfecta tickets can significantly boost payouts.
