Pick Pony takes pride in providing the most accurate expert picks available today. Pick Pony Expert Picks are carefully selected by our team of analysts based on analytics from our advanced Past Performance Sheets and Racing Forms. For potential longshot selections, check out Pick Pony’s AI Picks.
Note: Sometimes, a pick may appear twice; in such cases, we expect the horse to finish in one of the two predicted positions.
Race 1 – Claiming – 1542Y – Dirt – $41,000
Win: #2 Dark Vector (93% confidence)
Place: #1 Leading Role (93% confidence)🥉
Show: #4 Enduring Spirit (64% confidence)🥇
Alternative: #6 Wajda (36% confidence)🥈
Notes: Competitive claiming race with several horses coming off solid recent efforts. Leading Role adds blinkers for the first time, which could enhance focus. Dark Vector has hit the board in all three starts this year and handles the distance well. Both top selections have near-universal support from handicappers.
Race 2 – Claiming – 8F – Dirt – $41,000 WIN
Win: #3 Systemic Change (79% confidence)🥇
Place: #2 Brew Pub (93% confidence)
Show: #1 Skylander (79% confidence)
Alternative: #4 Hours In A Day (43% confidence)
Notes: Brew Pub running back quickly after finishing second by a length last week. Systemic Change has been alternating wins and losses, with strong local form. Track condition could play a role in the outcome. Skylander provides value as a fresh horse moving up in class.
Race 3 – Maiden Claiming – 1323Y – Turf – $70,000
Win: #1 Hellacious (57% confidence)🥈
Place: #7 Billy White Shoes (71% confidence)
Show: #3 Snare (86% confidence)🥉
Alternative: #4 Joker On Fire (29% confidence)🥇
Notes: Turf maiden claimer with several horses returning from layoffs. Hellacious draws the rail and has been training well during the break. Surface switch could benefit several runners. Note that Fiddling Felix (16) was scratched. Snare shows consistency with strong show confidence.
Race 4 – Claiming – 9F – Dirt – $41,000
Win: #7 Peek (92% confidence)🥈
Place: #3 O P Firecracker (85% confidence)
Show: #2 Bob John Ray (54% confidence)🥇
Alternative: #4 Winter’s Ghost (46% confidence)
Notes: Peek returns from a layoff after winning two months ago. The class drop is notable. Bob John Ray showed versatility by running well on turf at Meadowlands last time despite the poor finish position. Run Happy Pappy (6) was scratched. O P Firecracker has been competitive and gets strong support.
Race 5 – Maiden Special Weight – 8F 110Y – Turf – $70,000 WIN + TRIFECTA ($194.92)!
Win: #12 Livin The Breeze (64% confidence)🥇
Place: #5 Silly Season (64% confidence)🥈
Show: #9 Raynham Hall (57% confidence)🥉
Alternative: #10 Cara’s Dreamchaser (36% confidence)
Notes: Wide-open maiden special weight on turf with several lightly-raced prospects. Silly Season debuts for Chad Brown, who excels with first-time starters on turf. Livin The Breeze returns from a layoff after placing when fresh. Several horses stretching out in distance. This race has the most divided handicapping opinion.
Race 6 – Allowance Optional Claiming – 9F 108Y – Turf – $88,000 BOXED TRIFECTA
Win: #5 Dirand (71% confidence)🥈
Place: #3 Space Legend (64% confidence)🥉
Show: #2 Mutaawid (50% confidence)🥇
Alternative: #8 Interceptor (21% confidence)
Notes: Allowance optional claiming on turf with horses moving up after maiden victories. Dirand won impressively last time to break maiden and rates as the top choice. Land D’oro (13) was scratched. The field features several improving three-year-olds. Mutaawid and Space Legend split handicapping opinion for place honors.
Race 7 – Allowance – 1433Y – Dirt – $96,000 WIN
Win: #7 Senza Parole (79% confidence)🥇
Place: #5 Mazayaat (50% confidence)
Show: #10 Grammy Girl (50% confidence)🥈
Alternative: #6 Army Gal (71% confidence)🥉
Notes: Competitive allowance on dirt. Senza Parole is the morning line favorite after returning from a layoff. Grammy Girl brings momentum from a recent win at Belmont. Army Gal returns from a spell and won last time when fresh. Sandy’s Garden adds blinkers. Mazayaat getting increased attention from multiple experts.
Race 8 – Key Cents Stakes – 8F – Turf – $125,000
Win: #7 Cosmic Candy Girl (71% confidence)🥈
Place: #4 Boomington (64% confidence)🥉
Show: #8 Fancy Lights (43% confidence)
Alternative: #2 Neshika (36% confidence)
Notes: Key Cents Stakes for two-year-old fillies on turf. Cosmic Candy Girl and Fancy Lights both won to break maiden last time out and face winners for the first time. This race was switched to turf this year, which has attracted a solid field. Boomington drops from stakes company and gets strong support.
Race 9 – Maiden Special Weight – 8F 110Y – Turf – $70,000
Win: #6 Disclaimer (57% confidence)🥉
Place: #4 Wicked Improbable (64% confidence)
Show: #3 A Bourbon For Toby (64% confidence)🥇
Alternative: #5 Operation Overlord (50% confidence)
Notes: Maiden special weight on turf for horses seeking their first career win. Operation Overlord finished second last time and has been improving with each start. Disclaimer has been knocking on the door with consistent efforts. Roger Roger represents powerful Chad Brown barn. Wide-open maiden with strong opinion splits among handicappers.
RECOMMENDED EXOTIC BETS AND VALUE PLAYS
Early Pick 4 (Races 1-4)
Looking at consensus strength, consider keying Race 4 winner Peek (92% confidence) with spreads in the other legs.
Ticket A: Race 1 (1,2,4) x Race 2 (1,2,3) x Race 3 (1,3,7) x Race 4 (7)
Cost: $27 ($1 base)
This ticket keys the strongest single consensus horse while spreading in competitive races.
Middle Pick 4 (Races 4-7)
Ticket B: Race 4 (7) x Race 5 (5,9,10,12) x Race 6 (2,3,5) x Race 7 (5,7,10)
Cost: $36 ($1 base)
Multiple solid consensus choices in races 4 and 7, spreading wider in the maiden race 5.
Late Pick 4 (Races 6-9)
Ticket C: Race 6 (5) x Race 7 (7) x Race 8 (4,7,8) x Race 9 (3,4,5,6)
Cost: $12 ($1 base)
Keying the two strongest favorites with spread in the stakes race and closing maiden.
Exacta Value Plays
Race 1: 1-2 and 2-1 box. Both horses have exceptional consensus support (93% each). Consider $5 box for $10 total. Highest consensus agreement of the day.
Race 3: 1-7-3 box. Three horses with strong confidence spread across positions. Strong value opportunity in maiden race.
Race 4: 7 with 2,3 box. Peek is near-unanimous choice with two strong place contenders. Cost: $4 ($2 base)
Trifecta Value Plays
Race 2: 2,3 with 1,2,3 with 1,2,3,4. Brew Pub and Systemic Change as top two choices with spread.
Cost: $12 ($1 base)
Race 4: 7 with 2,3 with 2,3,4. Peek rates as clear top choice returning from layoff with class drop.
Cost: $6 ($1 base)
Race 7: 7 with 5,10 with 5,6,10. Senza Parole has strong consensus confidence with three contenders for minor awards.
Cost: $6 ($1 base)
Superfecta Value Play
Race 1: 1,2 with 1,2,4 with 1,2,4,6 with 1,2,4,6. The top four consensus horses with excellent confidence ratings. Covers all logical combinations of the top choices with near-perfect handicapper agreement.
Cost: $24 ($0.10 base)
Daily Double Value Plays
Race 1-2: 1,2 with 2,3. Top consensus choices in both races.
Cost: $4 ($1 base)
Race 3-4: 1,3,7 with 7. Spread maiden into Peek single.
Cost: $3 ($1 base)
Race 7-8: 7 with 4,7. Senza Parole single into stakes race contenders.
Cost: $2 ($1 base)
Win Bet Value Plays
Several horses offer value based on consensus support relative to their odds:
Dark Vector (Race 1): 93% consensus confidence represents strongest single-race support. Near-universal handicapper agreement.
Brew Pub (Race 2): 93% confidence with quick turnaround. Strong consensus despite short rest.
Peek (Race 4): 92% consensus with class drop. Overwhelming favorite among all experts.
Dirand (Race 6): 71% confidence, likely underbet against experienced allowance runners.
Longshot with a Chance
Hours In A Day (Race 2): 43% consensus confidence at 8-1 morning line. Multiple experts included this fresh horse, suggesting legitimate chance.
Raynham Hall (Race 5): 57% consensus confidence. Improving with each start, included by multiple experts in wide-open maiden.
Army Gal (Race 7): 71% alternative confidence. Strong local record and fresh off layoff win.
Neshika (Race 8): 36% confidence in stakes race. Hitch Abernathy made this horse the win selection.
