Pick Pony takes pride in providing the most accurate expert picks available today. Pick Pony Expert Picks are carefully selected by our team of analysts based on analytics from our advanced Past Performance Sheets and Racing Forms. For potential longshot selections, check out Pick Pony’s AI Picks.
Note: Sometimes, a pick may appear twice; in such cases, we expect the horse to finish in one of the two predicted positions.
Race 1 – Claiming, 6 Furlongs, Dirt, Purse: $28,000 WIN
Win: 6 Echo In Eternity (67%)🥇
Place: 2 Mambagigi (58%)
Show: 3 Spring Magic (42%)
Alternative: 1 Maggie T (33%)🥈
Race Notes: This claiming race features a competitive field with Echo In Eternity drawing strong support across most handicappers. Mambagigi shows good early speed and consistency with four wins from six attempts this campaign after an eight-week freshening. Echo In Eternity drops to her lowest level and has performed well third off the layoff. Spring Magic moves down in distance after winning once this prep. The pace scenario could favor closers if the speed horses engage early.
Race 2 – Claiming, 6 Furlongs, Dirt, Purse: $43,000 WIN
Win: 6 Social Hour (50%)🥇
Place: 7 Golden Plate (50%)
Show: 1 Capt Jax Parrow (58%)
Alternative: 3 Free Dance (25%)🥉
Race Notes: Social Hour makes his first start off the claim for Orlando Noda, who is dangerous with this maneuver. Golden Plate won a similar spot two starts back and is perfect from the outside posts. Capt Jax Parrow returns to a more comfortable level third off the layoff and has a win when breaking from the rail. The race sets up as a tight contest between the top three selections with minimal separation in quality.
Race 3 – Maiden Special Weight, 6.5 Furlongs, Dirt, Purse: $80,000 WIN
Win: 4 Merica’s Back (75%)🥇
Place: 3 Counter Move (50%)
Show: 6 Guilty (58%)
Alternative: 7 Poppy’s Ticket (33%)🥉
Race Notes: Merica’s Back returns after an 11-week spell and gets a significant jockey upgrade to Flavien Prat. Despite disappointing as the favorite last start at Saratoga, rates well ahead of this field on paper. Counter Move returns from a layoff after running 11 lengths back when resuming. The maiden special weight conditions suggest several improving types could factor with natural progression.
Race 4 – Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs, Turf, Purse: $85,000
Win: 5 Gypsy Art (75%)🥉
Place: 2 Eva Ready (67%)🥇
Show: 8 Chasing Freedom (58%)
Alternative: 9 Brooklyn Styles (25%)
Race Notes: Gypsy Art was scratched from Sunday to run in this spot and shows superior speed figures compared to the field. Both previous Belmont stakes returnees won their next starts with improved figures. Eva Ready just missed last time, finishing three-quarters of a length back at Keeneland, and should run fitter. Chasing Freedom impressed when placing in the Keeneland debut with a pedigree suggesting the performance was legitimate.
Race 5 – Notebook Stakes, 8 Furlongs, Turf, Purse: $125,000
Win: 1 Spirit of New York (50%)
Place: 6 Jaxer (42%)🥇
Show: 2 Truman’s Commander (42%)
Alternative: 5 Caroline St. Beat (25%)🥈
Race Notes: Spirit of New York has won or placed in all three starts and draws favorably to do minimal work. Jaxer broke his maiden last start at this distance and should benefit from the step up in trip. This New York-bred stakes race features several lightly raced types with room for improvement. The routing distance on turf should separate the true stayers from the speed-dependent runners.
Race 6 – Maiden Claiming, 6.5 Furlongs, Dirt, Purse: $48,000
Win: 2 Red Fern (42%)
Place: 8 Kid Rich (42%)
Show: 11 Rumblyoungmanrumbl (33%)
Alternative: 1 The Toy Cannon (33%)🥈
Race Notes: Limited data makes this race challenging to assess. Red Fern placed in only career start running third at Belmont. Kid Rich ran eight lengths back at only start but could improve significantly with experience. Rumblyoungmanrumbl ran fourth last start and should move forward. Wide-open maiden claimer with several horses capable of breakthrough performances.
Race 7 – Claiming, 6.5 Furlongs, Dirt, Purse: $43,000 WIN
Win: 5 Brave Buck (58%)🥇
Place: 3 Tarpaulin (67%)
Show: 9 Heavyweight Champs (42%) lost rider
Alternative: 8 Ride Up (25%)
Race Notes: Brave Buck ran a length back from the winner when first up and returns to non-metro competition. Tarpaulin shows strong form with two wins from seven attempts but hasn’t improved for current connections. Heavyweight Champs returns from a layoff with solid Aqueduct form. The pace dynamics favor horses with tactical speed who can position early without excessive effort.
Race 8 – Starter Optional Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles, Turf, Purse: $88,000
Win: 2 Mr Flowers (75%)
Place: 8 Hedge the Risk (50%)
Show: 3 Oat Coutour (25%)
Alternative: 9 Vintage Vino (25%)
Race Notes: Mr Flowers just missed when heavily backed last start at Laurel Park and has won at Colonial Downs this campaign. Hedge the Risk has been running well with two wins and placings in all other outings. Oat Coutour broke maiden last start while Vintage Vino also graduated recently. The distance and turf surface should suit closers, particularly with the large field potentially setting up a contested pace scenario.
Race 9 – Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs, Turf, Purse: $85,000
Win: 4 Twenty One Red (50%)
Place: 1 Dinghy Bar (42%)🥈
Show: 9 Music in Motion (50%)
Alternative: 10 My Munny Talks (33%)
Race Notes: Twenty One Red returns from a seven-week layoff having placed when fresh previously. Dinghy Bar has placed in both career starts including a second last time at Belmont. Music in Motion represents Linda Rice who has strong numbers in these spots. My Munny Talks makes career debut for Brad Cox with Flavien Prat aboard. First-time starters from Cox deserve respect, making the exotic pools interesting.
Recommended Exotic Bets and Value Plays
Early Pick 5 (Races 1-5):
Race 1: 6, 2
Race 2: 6, 7, 1
Race 3: 4
Race 4: 5, 2, 8
Race 5: 1, 6
The Pick Pony analysts recommend keying Merica’s Back in Race 3 as a single given the overwhelming consensus and significant jockey upgrade. Spread in Races 2, 4, and 5 where the competition appears more evenly matched.
Race 1 Exacta Box: 6-2, 6-3 for value given the divided opinion between the top three selections.
Race 4 Win Bet: Gypsy Art represents the strongest consensus play of the day with 75% support and superior figures. The scratch-to-enter maneuver combined with positive pattern from recent stakes returnees makes this a confident selection.
Late Pick 4 (Races 6-9):
Race 6: 2, 8, 11, 1
Race 7: 5, 3
Race 8: 2
Race 9: 4, 1, 9, 10
Single Mr Flowers in Race 8 where he dominates the handicapper consensus. Spread widest in Race 6 given the uncertainty with limited form, and include multiple contenders in Race 9 where first-time starters add intrigue.
Race 5 Trifecta: 1-6 with 1-6-2-5 for third position. Spirit of New York and Jaxer appear most likely to occupy the top two spots, with Truman’s Commander and Caroline St. Beat offering value for third.
Race 7 Exacta: 5-3 box represents the strongest two-horse consensus outside of the singles. Brave Buck and Tarpaulin both show recent form and class advantages.
Value Play – Race 2: Golden Plate at 2-1 morning line offers value given the 50% consensus support for the win position. Perfect record from outside posts and recent victory in similar conditions make this an overlay opportunity.
Superfecta Strategy – Race 8: Key 2 Mr Flowers on top with 8-3-9 for second, 8-3-9-7-11 for third, and all for fourth. The overwhelming support for Mr Flowers combined with uncertainty about place positions creates favorable superfecta odds.
Race 3 Win/Place: Merica’s Back shows 75% consensus and returns with top jockey after a freshening. The 11-week layoff concern is mitigated by strong previous form and trainer pattern. Win bet recommended with place coverage for safety.
