Pick Pony takes pride in providing the most accurate expert picks available today. Pick Pony Expert Picks are carefully selected by our team of analysts based on analytics from our advanced Past Performance Sheets and Racing Forms. For potential longshot selections, check out Pick Pony’s AI Picks.
Note: Sometimes, a pick may appear twice; in such cases, we expect the horse to finish in one of the two predicted positions.
Race 1 – Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile, Dirt, $43,000 BOXED TRIFECTA
Win: #1 Momentum Files – 100%🥈
Place: #2 Kavanaugh – 67%🥇
Show: #6 Sequential – 53%🥉
Alternative: #4 Quiet Moon – 27%
Momentum Files is the overwhelming consensus choice receiving every single win vote from 10 of 15 handicappers. The Linda Rice trainee drops in class and stretches out to a mile, which appears to be an ideal scenario. The horse has shown consistent form in recent starts and should be heavily favored. Kavanaugh provides solid value as the place horse with multiple trainers projecting improvement. The battle for show appears tight between Sequential, who benefits from the distance stretch, and Dr. Insel, who showed improved speed in his last start.
Race 2 – Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile, Dirt, $38,000
Win: #3 Solo Jim – 79%
Place: #6 Metatron – 86%🥇
Show: #8 Good Cop – 57%🥉
Alternative: #7 Lucky Dragon – 36%
Solo Jim receives strong support for the win despite Metatron having higher overall confidence percentage. The key factor is Solo Jim’s return to dirt after a disappointing turf try. Mark Hennig trainee with Johnny Velazquez returns to his preferred surface. Metatron drops to his lowest claiming level and rates as a strong place contender in his third start off the bench. Good Cop was narrowly beaten last time as a favorite and brings Todd Pletcher credentials.
Race 3 – Pebbles Stakes – Grade 3, 1 Mile, Turf, $175,000
Win: #5 Fast Market – 75%
Place: #6 Peak Hype – 58%
Show: #4 Love You Anyway – 50%
Alternative: #2 It Ain’t Two – 42%
Fast Market narrowly missed in her last start and appears to be peaking at the right time. The Grade 2 runner-up performance suggests she can handle Grade 3 company. Peak Hype returns from a six-week layoff with two wins already this campaign and a strong record with Chad Brown off the bench. Love You Anyway provides value after running third at Keeneland in similar company. This appears to be a wide-open Grade 3 with multiple legitimate win candidates.
Race 4 – Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 1/8 Mile, Turf, $90,000
Win: #7 Spirit Prince – 85%
Place: #5 Exact Estimate – 62%
Show: #4 Starship Titan – 54%
Alternative: #2 Niagara Skyline – 23%
Spirit Prince is the strong consensus selection returning from an 11-week layoff. The Miguel Clement trainee with Manuel Franco has shown ability first-up in the past. Exact Estimate for Brad Cox after being claimed is a dangerous combination, especially given Cox’s 37 percent strike rate with recent claims. Starship Titan seeks a hat trick after consecutive wins and could be tough to hold off if the pace sets up favorably for closers.
Race 5 – Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile, Dirt, $85,000
Win: #1 Credit History – 86%
Place: #6 Fightforallegiance – 64%
Show: #7 Felonious – 43%
Alternative: #2 Ottinho – 36%
Credit History for Bill Mott has placed in both career starts and draws ideally on the inside. The breeding suggests the mile distance will suit perfectly. Fightforallegiance was only beaten four lengths on debut and should improve significantly second time out for Linda Rice. Felonious burned money as a beaten favorite on debut but returns to dirt from turf, which could spark improvement given the pedigree. The Todd Pletcher surface switchers historically perform well second time out.
Race 6 – Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/16 Mile, Turf, $85,000
Win: #1 Big Magic – 75%
Place: #3 Marketplaceofideas – 67%
Show: #4 Ellesmere Island – 58%
Alternative: #6 Dimensionality – 33%
Big Magic narrowly missed by a neck last start and draws the rail with Johnny Velazquez returning. The Tony Dutrow trainee appears ready to graduate. Marketplaceofideas returns from a 34-week layoff for Chad Brown, who excels with returning horses. The narrow defeat on debut at Tampa Bay suggests significant ability. Ellesmere Island also represents the powerful Chad Brown barn with Manuel Franco. Brown runners dominate the consensus suggesting this could be a barn vs. field scenario.
Race 7 – Forever Together Stakes, 1 1/16 Mile, Turf, $150,000
Win: #7 Oversubscribed – 83%
Place: #3 Sirona – 50%
Show: #5 Spinning Colors – 50%
Alternative: #4 Malleymoo – 33%
Oversubscribed returns from a 53-week layoff for Chad Brown, who has proven mastery bringing horses back from long absences. The British-bred mare has done her best work at Aqueduct. Sirona improved significantly in her second American start and the Graham Motion trainee with Jaime Rodriguez is a potent combination. Spinning Colors brings tactical speed that could control the pace, while Malleymoo has been knocking on the door with three placings from three starts this prep.
Race 8 – Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 1/2 Furlongs, Dirt, $90,000
Win: #8 With The Angels – 92%
Place: #7 All Class – 67%
Show: #3 Twirling Beauty – 50%
Alternative: #2 Top Gun Girl – 33%
With The Angels is undefeated from all career starts and won impressively fresh last time at Belmont. The Linda Rice trainee receives near-universal support and should be very short-priced. All Class for the same barn provides the exacta backup after a seven-week freshening. Both Rice runners appear to have significant class advantages. Twirling Beauty returns from a nine-week break and could pick up the pieces if either favorite falters. This sets up as a Linda Rice exacta with limited upset potential.
Race 9 – Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 1/8 Mile, Turf, $88,000
Win: #6 Cynane – 67%
Place: #3 Siyouni Flash – 75%
Show: #9 Trail Of Gold – 33%
Alternative: #2 Perky – 42%
Cynane for Brad Cox has been remarkably consistent, placing in all starts this campaign including a win at Saratoga. Despite finishing second as the favorite last time, the filly has shown she belongs at this level. Siyouni Flash has improved with each American start since arriving from France and appears to have more upside. Trail Of Gold has been alternating wins and losses and is due for a victory based on the pattern. Perky returns from a 31-week break having won both previous starts, making this a difficult puzzle.
Recommended Exotic Bets and Value Plays
Race 1 Exotics: The 1-2 exacta is the logical play with Momentum Files on top. For value, consider boxing 1-2-6 in the trifecta or using 1/2,6/2,4,6 for better payouts.
Race 3 Value Play: This Grade 3 appears wide open with multiple contenders. Consider a trifecta box of 5-6-4-3 or a superfecta with 5,6/5,6,4/5,6,4,2/ALL for maximum coverage.
Race 4 Exacta: Play 7/5,4,2 for value or reverse it to 5/7,4,2 if Exact Estimate shows early speed in the post parade.
Race 5 Strategy: Despite strong consensus, consider 1-7 exacta boxes given Felonious’s pedigree advantage and Pletcher’s history with surface switchers.
Race 7 Best Bet: Oversubscribed appears to be the strongest consensus play of the day at 83 percent. Consider win-place betting or using as a single in multi-race exotics.
Race 8 Chalk Play: The 7-8 exacta with Linda Rice runners appears nearly unstoppable. For value, add 3 underneath in a trifecta.
Late Pick 3 (Races 7-9): Key 7 in Race 7, spread in Race 8 with 7,8,3, and use 6,3,9 in Race 9 for a solid closing sequence.
Pick 4 Strategy (Races 6-9): Use 1,3,4/7/7,8/3,6,9 for balanced coverage hitting consensus choices while maintaining value.
Early Double: The 1-6/3-6 daily double from Race 1 to Race 2 offers solid value given the strong consensus support for all four horses.
