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Race 1 – Maiden Special Weight, 6F, Dirt, 11:40am WIN
Win: Just Tell Anne (3) 36% ConfidencePlace: For the Ladies (1) 55% Confidence🥇
Show: She’s All Clover (2) 45% Confidence🥉
Alternative: Rage Bait (5) 27% Confidence
This race features a competitive maiden special weight with four credible runners. Pick Pony analysts note that Just Tell Anne has improved with each start at Aqueduct, while For the Ladies is a heavy odds-on favorite off a sharp runner-up debut. Rage Bait brings a strong gate work and draws ideally in post five. The race shapes as a three-way battle with late-running potential from She’s All Clover. The consensus suggests value exists with the alternative selection if the favorite encounters traffic.
Exotic Plays & Value Recommendations:
Exacta Box 1-2-3-5 offers strong payout potential given the competitive nature of this maiden field. The trifecta 1-3-2 with multiple underneath combinations (particularly incorporating 5) provides robust value. Pick Pony analysts recommend using Just Tell Anne (3) as a key in early-card multi-race wagers, while wheeling Rage Bait (5) underneath in exacta plays offers contrarian value at 8-5 morning line odds.
Race 2 – Maiden Special Weight, 1M, Dirt, 12:10pm
Win: Baffle (1) 55% Confidence🥉
Place: Romala (5) 75% Confidence
Show: Three Sixty (2) 45% Confidence🥈
Alternative: Two Bits (3) 18% Confidence🥇
Pick Pony analysts align on Baffle as the most likely winner, though opinion splits between Romala and Three Sixty for the place position. Baffle makes her second start off a layoff with blinkers added—a high-percentage equipment move for her trainer. Romala, a well-bred first-timer for a barn strong with debut routers, has experienced connections and draws favorably. The consensus model slightly favors Romala over Three Sixty for place, though the former has multiple winning attempts at Aqueduct previously.
Exotic Plays & Value Recommendations:
Exacta 1-5 represents the strongest consensus play. Trifecta combinations incorporating 1-5-2 and 1-5-4 offer solid payoff potential given the 55% confidence on the heavy favorite. Pick Pony analysts suggest using this race’s top three selections in Pick 3 sequences with longer-shot underlays from later races. Two Bits (3) at 7-2 offers value for those seeking an alternative route; she improved significantly from her first to second dirt attempt.
Race 3 – Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 1/8M, Dirt, 12:40pm WIN + EXACTA
Win: Higher Force (7) 40% Confidence🥇
Place: Fast And Frisky (3) 40% Confidence🥈
Show: Ah Ca Ira (4) 30% Confidence
Alternative: Royal Bobbie (6) 30% Confidence🥉
This route race carries significant decision-making variance among analysts. Pick Pony analysts recognize a tactical race where pace and trip will determine outcome. Higher Force showed winning form recently while Fast And Frisky maintains consistency. Ah Ca Ira was decisive in her sole two-turn attempt at this track previously—a potentially significant angle for the cutdown from longer distances. Royal Bobbie returns off a 16-week layoff but carries a Saratoga win in her recent past, making her a credible long-shot play.
Exotic Plays & Value Recommendations:
Given the split consensus, Pick Pony analysts recommend wide exacta box play incorporating 3-4-6-7, particularly at 1-2 exacta wagering. Trifecta combinations box-wheeling these four horses offer expanded return potential. Ah Ca Ira (4) at 5-1 represents potentially the best value selection, given her demonstrated affinity for the distance and class level. This race suggests deeper exotic plays over straight wagering.
Race 4 – Starter Allowance, 6.5F, Dirt, 1:10pm WIN
Win: Hue (1) 40% Confidence🥇
Place: Kadena (3) 50% Confidence
Show: Sassy Princess (7) 30% Confidence🥈
Alternative: Hey Cookie (6) 20% Confidence
Pick Pony analysts highlight Hue as a strong second-off-the-layoff play—a statistically profitable angle for these connections. Kadena, however, generates significant consensus backing for the place position, suggesting a contentious stretch duel. Sassy Princess enters off a recent Aqueduct victory and maintains consistent form, making her a reliable board-hitter. The race structure favors tactical speed, and analysts recommend monitoring post positions for potential pace-setting assignments.
Exotic Plays & Value Recommendations:
Exacta 1-3 or reverse 3-1 captures the primary consensus. Trifecta 1-3-7 or modified combinations incorporating 1-3-6 offer solid value. Pick Pony analysts suggest using this race in vertical wagering given the moderate confidence levels; Sassy Princess (7) at 3-1 offers potential overlay value if morning-line odds exceed 5-2. The Pick 4 sequence beginning in Race 4 suggests key-race play with multiple horse combinations to maximize carryover potential.
Race 5 – Claiming, 1 1/8M, Dirt, 1:39pm
Win: Shipsational (3) 40% Confidence🥈
Place: Stewie (7) 40% Confidence
Show: Thrill Of It (4) 30% Confidence
Alternative: Looms Boldly (1) 20% Confidence🥇
This claiming event presents mixed analyst opinion, with Shipsational and Stewie receiving near-equal backing. Pick Pony analysts note that Shipsational receives blinkers back—an equipment change that typically indicates trainer confidence. Stewie carries speed but maintains a concerning record at this specific track. Thrill Of It is a noted “horse for course” with four wins at Aqueduct, suggesting angle-play opportunity. Looms Boldly has demonstrated declining form recently despite track-specific success.
Exotic Plays & Value Recommendations:
Trifecta play offers superior value to straight win wagering in this contentious claiming heat. Box combinations 3-4-7-1 provide balanced coverage. Pick Pony analysts specifically recommend key-racing Thrill Of It (4) at 5-1 in multi-race vertical plays; his consistent Aqueduct success represents strong value given the moderate win confidence on Shipsational. This race suggests using multiple underlays in Pick 5 and Pick 6 sequences rather than committing capital to win-only positions.
Race 6 – Claiming, 6F, Dirt, 2:09pm WIN
Win: Ridgewood Runner (3) 40% Confidence🥇
Place: Cicciobello (7) 40% Confidence🥉Show: Mr. Papagiorgio (5) 30% ConfidenceAlternative: Tabeguache (1) 20% Confidence
Pick Pony analysts see a focused race where Ridgewood Runner returns from a brief freshening—a move suggesting trainer intent to run a forward race. Cicciobello, however, carries similar backing for the place position, indicating a potentially tight contest. Mr. Papagiorgio maintains consistency but historically settles for minor awards. Tabeguache enters at 12-1 morning line odds, offering potential value for those seeking contrarian plays at this stage of the card.
Exotic Plays & Value Recommendations:
Exacta 3-7 or reverse 7-3 captures consensus opinion. Pick Pony analysts suggest using Ridgewood Runner (3) as a single in vertical plays while incorporating 7-5-1 combinations underneath for trifecta and superfecta expansion. The 40% win confidence suggests moderate willingness to use single-horse bets, but exotic play with multiple runners offers superior risk-reward positioning. Cicciobello (7) offers overlay value if wagering odds exceed 10-1.
Race 7 – Maiden Claiming, 7F, Dirt, 2:39pm
Win: Freedom Maker (3) 70% Confidence
Place: Grey Ace (8) 40% Confidence🥈
Show: How About It (4) 30% Confidence
Alternative: Career Risk (2) 20% Confidence
Pick Pony analysts recognize Freedom Maker as a strong consensus play despite her troubled recent run. The 70% win confidence suggests widespread analyst agreement. Grey Ace returns from a 10-week layoff for a barn with strong fresh-horse records at this track—a significant statistical advantage. How About It won this specific race nine weeks prior at 16-1 odds, returning to what has historically been a favorable routing assignment. Career Risk benefits from a class drop and represents sneaky value.
Exotic Plays & Value Recommendations:
Win play on Freedom Maker (3) represents one of the strongest consensus picks of the late card. Exacta 3-8 offers direct value. Trifecta 3-8-4 with multiple wheel combinations provides balanced approach to this maiden claimer. Pick Pony analysts recommend using Freedom Maker (3) as a key horse across multiple vertical plays while incorporating How About It (4) and Career Risk (2) as contrarian value underlays. The single strongest recommendation: straight win wager on Freedom Maker (3) at current morning line odds.
Race 8 – Claiming, 1M, Dirt, 3:09pm
Win: The Boondocker (6) 50% Confidence🥉
Place: Last Man Standing (8) 40% Confidence
Show: Nantz (7) 30% Confidence
Alternative: Union Express (2) 20% Confidence🥇
Pick Pony analysts view this race as fundamentally two-horse for the win between The Boondocker and Last Man Standing. The Boondocker drops to his lowest career class level, typically a “win now” move suggesting full readiness. Last Man Standing enters off a recent maiden-breaking victory, demonstrating form trajectory favorable for this specific opponent group. Nantz finished narrowly second in this exact race three weeks prior and won previously at the distance-class combination, making him a reliable third-place candidate.
Exotic Plays & Value Recommendations:
Exacta 6-8 or reverse 8-6 represents Pick Pony consensus. Cold exacta 6-8 offers direct value given the two-horse focus. Trifecta 6-8-7 provides logical wheel-down structure. Pick Pony analysts recommend straight exacta wagering over single-horse win plays, given the moderate 50% confidence on The Boondocker and the demonstrated form of Last Man Standing. Union Express (2) offers exotic underlay value if seeking trifecta and superfecta expansion.
Race 9 – Starter Allowance, 6F, Dirt, 3:39pm BOXED TRIFECTA
Win: Nuanced (2) 50% Confidence🥈
Place: Porosity (3) 40% Confidence🥉
Show: Bermuda Blitz (1) 30% Confidence🥇
Alternative: Brave Bear (10) 20% Confidence
Pick Pony analysts identify Nuanced as the strongest play of the late card, though not overwhelming—particularly given his maiden-breaking victory came in different class circumstances. The 50% confidence suggests meaningful support but not universal analyst agreement. Porosity enters off a maiden-breaking win under similar conditions, making him the logical alternative for place consideration. Bermuda Blitz returns from Keeneland maiden competition at attractive odds, positioning him as value in multi-race sequences.
Exotic Plays & Value Recommendations:
Win play on Nuanced (2) at current morning-line odds (2-1) carries value for Pick Pony analysts. Exacta 2-3 offers direct consensus. Trifecta 2-3-1 with 2-3-10 underlays provides balanced approach. Pick Pony analysts specifically recommend Nuanced (2) as a key horse for Pick 6 construction in the final three races. This race offers one of the few genuinely strong consensus picks of the late card, justifying single-horse win consideration alongside multi-race vertical plays.
Race 10 – Allowance, 1M, Dirt, 4:09pm
Win: Mozambique (4) 40% Confidence
Place: Concorde Spirit (13) 40% Confidence🥈
Show: Mo For The King (2) 30% Confidence
Alternative: Moe Eighty Eight (8) 20% Confidence🥇
Pick Pony analysts recognize final-race consensus divergence with Mozambique and Concorde Spirit receiving near-equal backing. Mozambique maintains consistent form with solid recent performances, while Concorde Spirit carries strong form from outside posts despite the unfavorable 13-post position. Mo For The King returns from a 10-week layoff off second-place finish in similarly-configured race. Moe Eighty Eight, despite strong Belmont form, carries alternative status here given the deeper-fielded Allowance configuration.
Exotic Plays & Value Recommendations:
Exacta box 4-13 or straight combinations 4-13 and 13-4 capture primary consensus. Given the split opinion and wide post position for Concorde Spirit (13), Pick Pony analysts recommend deeper exotic play: superfecta boxes incorporating 2-4-8-13 to maximize final-race carryover potential in Pick 6 sequences. This race’s 40% confidence levels suggest meaningful reserve opinion on Moe Eighty Eight (8), justifying his inclusion in all multi-horse combinations. Mo For The King (2) at 6-1 offers solid value for place-position plays.
Pick Pony Analyst Consensus Notes
Strong Consensus Races: Freedom Maker (Race 7) at 70% generates the strongest late-card consensus. Baffle (Race 2) at 55% and Nuanced (Race 9) at 50% offer secondary strong-consensus opportunities.
Competitive Races: Races 3, 5, and 10 show significant analyst disagreement, suggesting deeper exotic play over single-horse wagering. These races benefit from multi-horse combinations in exacta, trifecta, and superfecta structures.
Value Opportunities: Thrill Of It (Race 5) at 5-1, Ah Ca Ira (Race 3) at 5-1, and How About It (Race 7) at 9-2 represent analysts’ identified value plays. Brave Bear (Race 9) and Union Express (Race 8) offer further exotic underlay opportunities.
Track Conditions: With cool temperatures (37°F) and potential moisture, Pick Pony analysts note that track bias toward speed or closers may materialize as the day progresses. Monitor track reports before final wagering decisions.
Recommended Exotic Sequences
Early Pick 5 (Races 1-5): Box combinations 1-3-5 / 1-5 / 1-3-4-5-7 / 3-4-7 / 1-3-4 provide comprehensive coverage with moderate cost structure.
Pick 4 (Races 4-7): Key horse structures incorporating Kadena (Race 4) or Hue (Race 4) over Ridgewood Runner (Race 6) and Freedom Maker (Race 7) offer balanced risk positioning.
Late Pick 5 (Races 6-10): Freedom Maker (3) single / Ridgewood Runner (3) / Freedom Maker (3) / Nuanced (2) / Mozambique (4) with multiple-horse underlays on Race 10.
Pick 6 (Races 5-10): Coordinate vertical sequences from early-card races through Nuanced (Race 9) key with Mozambique (Race 10) underlay combinations to maximize carryover capture.
