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Race 1: Maiden Claiming – 6 1/2 Furlongs – Dirt – $38,000
Win: 4 – Let’s Get Weird (25% confidence)
Place: 4 – Let’s Get Weird (42% confidence)
Show: 1 – Liberty Rising (33% confidence)
Alternative: 3 – Chilly Cheesesteak (33% confidence)
Competitive field with strong support for Let’s Get Weird and Liberty Rising. Killybegs Kid is highlighted as a dangerous value play; the barn has strong stats with runners returning off similar layoffs at this level. Dormello and Ridolfi are considered capable of hitting the board, with the latter expected to improve second off the layoff.
Race 2: Allowance Optional Claiming – 1 Mile – Dirt – $82,000
Win: 6 – Kay Cup (50% confidence)
Place: 4 – Embraceable Gal (40% confidence)
Show: 4 – Embraceable Gal (44% confidence)
Alternative: 5 – Sweetest Princess (44% confidence)
Kay Cup is a strong favorite among experts, cited for her class and ability to win fresh. Sweetest Princess is a specialist at the distance with a perfect record when cutting back from two turns to one. Embraceable Gal is expected to be a factor for minor awards. City Blocks is noted for her perfect record at this specific distance.
Race 3: Claiming – 1 Mile – Dirt – $28,000
Win: 4 – Bold Endeavor (60% confidence)
Place: 4 – Bold Endeavor (44% confidence)
Show: 7 – Suerte (37% confidence)
Alternative: 5 – Six Kings (37% confidence)
Heavy support for Bold Endeavor, who drops in class and returns from a brief freshening. Suerte is seen as a consistent check-earner who figures to be in the mix for exotics. Commandperformance is an interesting longshot; while winless at this trip, he often runs well in his second start off a layoff. Six Kings is a reliable board-hitter.
Race 4: Claiming – 1 Mile – Dirt – $28,000
Win: 1 – Spirit of Esther (22% confidence)
Place: 5 – Blenheim Baby (42% confidence)
Show: 1 – Spirit of Esther (75% confidence)
Alternative: 6 – Bow To Clara (25% confidence)
Race appears wide open with conflicting opinions. Spirit of Esther is favored by many for her consistency and inside draw, having hit the board in four of her last nine starts. Bow to Clara is considered a major threat, dropping in class. Calling An Audible is a nibbler who often finishes in the money at this distance. That’sthefactjack is a value play to watch.
Race 5: Maiden Optional Claiming – 6 Furlongs – Dirt – $70,000
Win: 5 – Fort Griffin (40% confidence)
Place: 5 – Fort Griffin (60% confidence)
Show: 4 – Final Joke (40% confidence)
Alternative: 7 – Game For It (40% confidence)
Fort Griffin is a logical contender who has improved with every start and recently placed ahead of a next-out winner. Waitin’onasunnyday is the narrow top choice for several analysts, dropping slightly in class. Tinseltown is a notable first-time starter with strong gate works and a pedigree suggesting early speed. Final Joke also draws interest on debut with the highest speed figures in the field.
Race 6: Maiden Claiming – 6 1/2 Furlongs – Dirt – $38,000
Win: 1 – Island Charlie (33% confidence)
Place: 1 – Island Charlie (44% confidence)
Show: 3 – Fric And Frac (50% confidence)
Alternative: 4 – Hello Newman (37% confidence)
Hello Newman is the consensus choice, bringing consistent form and a recent placing at Belmont at the Big A. Island Charlie takes a significant drop in class, which analysts believe makes him a serious player. Fric and Frac showed improvement in his second start and adds blinkers today. Until Last Call is another runner adding blinkers and dropping in class.
Race 7: Claiming – 7 Furlongs – Dirt – $58,000
Win: 2 – Rithm Nic (40% confidence)
Place: 5 – Disarmed (40% confidence)
Show: 7 – Celestial Glaze (66% confidence)
Alternative: 2 – Rithm Nic (33% confidence)
Rithm Nic is a popular pick to hit the board. Let It Ride is a horse for the course, having hit the superfecta in 11 of 13 starts and owning two wins at Aqueduct. Sergeant Capps is in peak form coming off back-to-back wins and is hard to ignore. Disarmed is a consistent exotic player who often runs well for this barn.
Race 8: Allowance Optional Claiming – 6 1/2 Furlongs – Dirt – $82,000
Win: 1 – Man In Finance (60% confidence)
Place: 5 – What’s Up Bro (60% confidence)
Show: 1 – Man In Finance (42% confidence)
Alternative: 4 – Yo Banana Boy (42% confidence)
Man In Finance is the clear horse to beat, entering off a win and a six-week freshening. What’s Up Bro is a sensible alternative with a strong record at Aqueduct and a jockey upgrade. Factually Correct is a consistent runner who often gives a solid account of himself and is considered a value play. Yo Banana Boy enters in good form with back-to-back placings.
Race 9: Claiming – 6 Furlongs – Dirt – $28,000
Win: 10 – Wajda (30% confidence)
Place: 6 – Shoot The Nickel (66% confidence)
Show: 5 – Leading Role (40% confidence)
Alternative: 6 – Shoot The Nickel (40% confidence)
The finale is a scramble. Leading Role is a tepid favorite, respected for his recent placing and prior win at the meet. Cousin Ed is a dangerous dropper; he has never been entered this cheaply and won his only prior start at this level. Wajda has outstanding course form and is expected to be a threat. Shoot The Nickel is a plunger dropping in class.
Recommended Exotic Bets & Value Plays
Value Plays
Race 1: #5 Killybegs Kid (12-1 Morning Line) – A puncher’s chance play. The barn excels with horses returning off this specific layoff at this class level.
Race 5: #2 Tinseltown (8-1 Morning Line) – A first-time starter with excellent gate works and a high-percentage trainer. A strong win candidate at a price.
Race 8: #7 Factually Correct (9-2 Morning Line) – A consistent runner who often hits the board at fair odds, making him a key for trifectas and superfectas.
Race 9: #2 Cousin Ed (4-1 Morning Line) – Takes a significant class drop to a level where he has previously won.
Exotic Wagers
Early Pick 4 (Races 2-5) – Affordable ticket structure focusing on the vulnerability of the Race 4 favorites.
Leg 1 (Race 2): 4, 5, 6
Leg 2 (Race 3): 4, 7
Leg 3 (Race 4): 1, 3, 6
Leg 4 (Race 5): 2, 4, 5, 8
Trifecta Key (Race 6) – Hello Newman is the most consistent closer in a race full of question marks.
Key: 4 – Hello Newman (Win/Place)
Underneath: 1 – Island Charlie, 3 – Fric And Frac, 7 – Until Last Call
Daily Double (Races 8-9) – Lean on the strong favorite in Race 8 to cover a wider spread in the chaotic finale.
Leg 1 (Race 8): 1, 5
Leg 2 (Race 9): 2, 5, 6, 10
