Pick Pony Tip Sheet – Expert picks for Charles Town, December 11, 2025. 33% WIN RATE + 1 EXACTA


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Race 1 – Claiming – 1542Y – Dirt – Purse: $9,000

Win: #3 Guns N’ Rojas (68%)🥈

Place: #2 Baron’s Legacy (61%)

Show: #1 Subject To Change (29%)🥇

Alternative: #6 Woke Up In Love (21%)

Notes:

Solid support for #3 Guns N’ Rojas with 68% of analysts favoring this runner.

Very tight race between top two selections, with #2 Baron’s Legacy (61%) closely challenging the favorite.

#1 Subject To Change (29%) represents viable show option with multiple analyst endorsements.

Race 2 – Claiming – 995Y – Dirt – Purse: $19,300

Win: #5 Candy Connection (86%)🥈

Place: #4 Youthful Energy (25%)🥉

Show: #2 Super Puncher (25%)

Alternative: #7 Juba Marches On (21%)

Notes:

Strong consensus on #5 Candy Connection with 86% analyst support as the top selection.

Sprint distance favors early speed and quick breakers.

Race 3 – Claiming – 1433Y – Dirt – Purse: $12,400

Win: #9 Pico Plat (57%)🥈

Place: #7 Favorite Road (50%)

Show: #2 Bid On Blue (32%)

Alternative: #5 Gogogetem (21%)🥉

Notes:

Solid support for #9 Pico Plat with 57% of analysts favoring this runner.

Very tight race between top two selections, with #7 Favorite Road (50%) closely challenging the favorite.

#2 Bid On Blue (32%) represents viable show option with multiple analyst endorsements.

Race 4 – Allowance Optional Claiming – 8F 110Y – Dirt – Purse: $28,700

Win: #6 Deadpan (57%)

Place: #5 Epic Luck (46%)🥇

Show: #4 Direct Appeal (36%)🥈

Alternative: #2 Game Keeper (29%)

Notes:

Solid support for #6 Deadpan with 57% of analysts favoring this runner.

Route distance rewards horses with closing ability and stamina.

Allowance conditions bring together competitive runners at similar class levels.

#4 Direct Appeal (36%) represents viable show option with multiple analyst endorsements.

Race 5 – Claiming – 1433Y – Dirt – Purse: $21,500 WIN

Win: #2 Fortunate Son (96%)🥇

Place: #3 Jack’s Aloha (46%)

Show: #1 Candy Man Can (29%)🥈

Alternative: #5 Union Branch (11%)

Notes:

Strong consensus on #2 Fortunate Son with 96% analyst support as the top selection.

#1 Candy Man Can (29%) represents viable show option with multiple analyst endorsements.

Race 6 – Maiden Special Weight – 1433Y – Dirt – Purse: $30,600 WIN

Win: #7 Red Dawn Coming (64%)🥇

Place: #9 Seatherny (54%)

Show: #5 Spicy Years (29%)🥉

Alternative: #2 Fiber Rocks (14%)

Notes:

Solid support for #7 Red Dawn Coming with 64% of analysts favoring this runner.

Very tight race between top two selections, with #9 Seatherny (54%) closely challenging the favorite.

Maiden race introduces uncertainty with first-time winners.

#5 Spicy Years (29%) represents viable show option with multiple analyst endorsements.

Race 7 – Allowance Optional Claiming – 1542Y – Dirt – Purse: $34,000 WIN + EXACTA

Win: #7 Overnight Pow Wow (82%)🥇

Place: #1 In My Memories (61%)🥈

Show: #4 Charge Nurse (21%)

Alternative: #2 Juba’s Parade (11%)🥉

Notes:

Strong consensus on #7 Overnight Pow Wow with 82% analyst support as the top selection.

Allowance conditions bring together competitive runners at similar class levels.

Race 8 – Allowance Optional Claiming – 1433Y – Dirt – Purse: $34,000

Win: #1 Hammer (54%)

Place: #2 Im The Director (50%)

Show: #7 Falcon Blue (39%)🥇

Alternative: #8 Ozone (25%)🥈

Notes:

Solid support for #1 Hammer with 54% of analysts favoring this runner.

Very tight race between top two selections, with #2 Im The Director (50%) closely challenging the favorite.

Allowance conditions bring together competitive runners at similar class levels.

Race 9 – Claiming – 1433Y – Dirt – Purse: $13,600

Win: #1 Still Grumpy (64%)🥈

Place: #4 Addy Mae (54%)

Show: #10 Juba’s Topaz (36%)

Alternative: #2 Butterfly Effect (29%)

Notes:

Solid support for #1 Still Grumpy with 64% of analysts favoring this runner.

Very tight race between top two selections, with #4 Addy Mae (54%) closely challenging the favorite.

#10 Juba’s Topaz (36%) represents viable show option with multiple analyst endorsements.

RECOMMENDED EXOTIC WAGERS AND VALUE PLAYS

Pick Pony analysts have identified the following exotic wagering opportunities based on consensus picks and value analysis:

Race 1 – Claiming

Exacta Box: #3 Guns N’ Rojas / #2 Baron’s Legacy

Trifecta Box: #3, #2, #1

Daily Double (1-2): #3 / #5, #4

Pick 3 (Races 1-3): #3, #2 / #5 / #9, #7

Race 2 – Claiming

Exacta: Key #5 Candy Connection on top with #4 Youthful Energy

Trifecta: #5 over #4, #2 with #4, #2, #7

Daily Double (2-3): #5 / #9, #7

Pick 3 (Races 2-4): #5 / #9, #7 / #6, #5

Race 3 – Claiming

Exacta Box: #9 Pico Plat / #7 Favorite Road

Trifecta Box: #9, #7, #2

Daily Double (3-4): #9 / #6, #5

Pick 3 (Races 3-5): #9, #7 / #6, #5 / #2

Race 4 – Allowance Optional Claiming

Exacta Box: #6 Deadpan / #5 Epic Luck

Trifecta Box: #6, #5, #4

Daily Double (4-5): #6 / #2

Pick 3 (Races 4-6): #6, #5 / #2 / #7, #9

Race 5 – Claiming

Exacta: Key #2 Fortunate Son on top with #3 Jack’s Aloha

Trifecta: #2 over #3, #1 with #3, #1, #5

Daily Double (5-6): #2 / #7, #9

Pick 3 (Races 5-7): #2 / #7, #9 / #7, #1

Race 6 – Maiden Special Weight

Exacta Box: #7 Red Dawn Coming / #9 Seatherny

Trifecta Box: #7, #9, #5

Daily Double (6-7): #7 / #7, #1

Pick 3 (Races 6-8): #7, #9 / #7, #1 / #1, #2

Race 7 – Allowance Optional Claiming

Exacta: Key #7 Overnight Pow Wow on top with #1 In My Memories

Trifecta: #7 over #1, #4 with #1, #4, #2

Daily Double (7-8): #7 / #1, #2

Pick 3 (Races 7-9): #7, #1 / #1, #2 / #1, #4

Race 8 – Allowance Optional Claiming

Exacta Box: #1 Hammer / #2 Im The Director

Trifecta Box: #1, #2, #7

Daily Double (8-9): #1 / #1, #4

Race 9 – Claiming

Exacta Box: #1 Still Grumpy / #4 Addy Mae

Trifecta Box: #1, #4, #10

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