Pick Pony takes pride in providing the most accurate expert picks available today. Pick Pony Expert Picks are carefully selected by our team of analysts based on analytics from our advanced Past Performance Sheets and Racing Forms. For potential longshot selections, check out Pick Pony’s AI Picks.
Note: Sometimes, a pick may appear twice; in such cases, we expect the horse to finish in one of the two predicted positions.
Race 1 – Maiden Claiming – 6.5F Dirt – Purse $19,100
Win: Fab Girl (2) – 78% confidence🥈
Place: Quotient (4) – 56% confidence
Show: Citified (1) – 44% confidence
Alternative: Dice Arm (3) – 44% confidence
This race features fillies and mares seeking their first win. Fab Girl shows the most consistent form with multiple placings and drops in class. The inside post positions should prove advantageous on the speed-favoring Charles Town surface. Quotient returns from a layoff with early speed that could prove effective if fitness is not an issue. Citified has shown some ability but needs to step forward. The pace scenario should favor forwardly-placed runners.
Race 2 – Claiming – 8F 110Y Dirt – Purse $12,400
Win: Dame Catherine (4) – 78% confidence🥈
Place: Slanderous (7) – 67% confidence🥉
Show: Miss Pixy Stix (1) – 22% confidence
Alternative: Can I Get Awitness (6) – 22% confidence
Dame Catherine returns on short rest after a strong runner-up effort at this level. The quick turnaround suggests connections are confident in her condition. Slanderous brings solid Charles Town form and has won at this distance previously. The longer route should suit closers if the pace is honest. Miss Pixy Stix showed ability in recent starts and gets the rail. Consider the exacta with Dame Catherine over Slanderous as the most likely outcome.
Race 3 – Claiming – 995Y Dirt – Purse $12,400
Win: Favorite Road (1) – 56% confidence🥉
Place: River Warrior Rvf (4) – 44% confidence
Show: Take Your Time (5) – 44% confidence
Alternative: Beechmont (7) – 33% confidence🥇
This appears to be one of the more competitive races on the card. Favorite Road has excellent recent form at Charles Town including wins over this course and distance. River Warrior Rvf drops in class and returns to a distance that has produced placings. Take Your Time comes off a win but faces tougher competition. The pace could set up for a closer if the speed horses engage early. Consider spreading tickets in the exotics given the competitive nature of the field.
Race 4 – Claiming – 995Y Dirt – Purse $15,800 WIN + TRIFECTA
Win: Hopping Henry (8) – 56% confidence🥇Place: Gold Fiber (1) – 56% confidenceShow: Auburn Mill (7) – 67% confidence🥈
Alternative: Hardly Ever Better (4) – 22% confidence🥉
The top three selections show clear separation from the rest of the field. Hopping Henry finished third last time and won two starts back at Mountaineer. Gold Fiber comes off a win at this level and has strong speed figures. Auburn Mill consistently finishes in the money and gets a favorable post. This looks like a good race for exacta and trifecta coverage using these three horses in multiple combinations.
Race 5 – Claiming – 1542Y Dirt – Purse $12,400
Win: Genghis (4) – 56% confidence🥉
Place: Bustin Bullet (5) – 56% confidence
Show: Larz (7) – 33% confidence🥇
Alternative: Abuelo Paps (6) – 33% confidence
The distance of approximately 1.5 furlongs (about 7.5 furlongs) favors horses with tactical speed and stamina. Genghis drops in class after competing at higher levels and should appreciate the distance. Bustin Bullet also benefits from the class drop and has shown ability at the distance. Larz enters in good form with a recent second-place finish. The pace scenario will be critical in this two-turn race.
Race 6 – Allowance – 995Y Dirt – Purse $31,700 BOXED EXACTA
Win: Fashion Victim (2) – 78% confidence🥈
Place: Naval Hospital (1) – 67% confidence🥇
Show: Sweet Manhattan (7) – 33% confidence
Alternative: Ride To Remember (6) – 22% confidence🥉
Fashion Victim looks like one of the strongest plays on the card after an impressive maiden win over course and distance. The step up to allowance company appears manageable given the dominant nature of the victory. Naval Hospital has experience at this level with a win two starts back. Sweet Manhattan has placed at the track but faces tougher competition. Consider Fashion Victim as a single in multi-race wagers.
Race 7 – Allowance Optional Claiming – 995Y Dirt – Purse $32,800
Win: Redhotchiliphilly (3) – 56% confidence🥉
Place: Country Cherry (4) – 67% confidence
Show: Maddie Ten (2) – 22% confidence
Alternative: Valid Reason (7) – 22% confidence
Handicappers are split on this race between Redhotchiliphilly and Country Cherry. Redhotchiliphilly has won four of her last five starts and shows excellent consistency at Charles Town. Country Cherry also demonstrates strong track form with multiple wins. The key will be pace positioning and jockey tactics. Both horses merit serious consideration for the win spot, making this an ideal race for exacta boxes and trifecta coverage.
Race 8 – Claiming – 1542Y Dirt – Purse $14,600
Win: Bold Ambition (1) – 44% confidence🥉
Place: Motivating (3) – 33% confidence
Show: Spinning Heart (7) – 44% confidence
Alternative: Crown That Saint (6) – 33% confidence🥇
The final race features a wide-open claiming affair with multiple contenders. Bold Ambition draws the rail and finished second two starts ago. Motivating drops in class and could benefit from the easier competition. Spinning Heart returns from a layoff but has shown ability when fresh. Crown That Saint has been consistent at this level with three placings from three starts. This race presents an opportunity for value plays as opinions are divided.
Exotic Wagers and Value Plays
Best Single-Race Bets:
Race 6 Win: Fashion Victim (2) – The highest confidence selection of the evening with strong recent form and favorable conditions. Consider win and place wagers.
Race 1 Win: Fab Girl (2) – Dominant consensus pick with multiple experts in agreement. Offers reasonable value given the consistency shown.
Exacta Opportunities:
Race 4: Box Hopping Henry (8), Gold Fiber (1), and Auburn Mill (7) – All three horses show similar confidence levels and form. A $2 box costs $12 and covers all combinations.
Race 7: Key Country Cherry (4) and Redhotchiliphilly (3) over Maddie Ten (2), Battleshipper (8), and Valid Reason (7) – $10 total for five combinations.
Trifecta Value:
Race 3: Box Favorite Road (1), River Warrior Rvf (4), Take Your Time (5), and Beechmont (7) – $24 for $1 box given the competitive nature and divided opinions.
Race 5: Key Genghis (4) and Bustin Bullet (5) with Larz (7), Abuelo Paps (6), and Rol Again Dancer (2) – $12 total using a part-wheel strategy.
Pick 3 Sequence:
Races 6-7-8: Fashion Victim (2) with Country Cherry (4) and Redhotchiliphilly (3) with Bold Ambition (1), Motivating (3), and Spinning Heart (7) – $6 for all combinations. This sequence includes the strongest play on the card in Race 6 and spreads risk in the more contentious final races.
Pick 4 Value:
Races 5-6-7-8: Genghis (4) and Bustin Bullet (5) with Fashion Victim (2) with Country Cherry (4) and Redhotchiliphilly (3) with Bold Ambition (1), Motivating (3), Spinning Heart (7) – $12 total. Focus on the most confident selections while spreading in the more competitive contests.
Daily Double Opportunities:
Races 1-2: Fab Girl (2) with Dame Catherine (4) and Slanderous (7) – $4 total. Both races feature strong consensus favorites.
Races 6-7: Fashion Victim (2) with Country Cherry (4) and Redhotchiliphilly (3) – $4 total. Links the strongest win bet of the card with a competitive but manageable second leg.
Longshot Value:
Race 2: Hannahs Red Ruby (5) at potential odds offers value if the favorite falters. One expert selection as the win choice suggests possible hidden form.
Race 8: Consider Zen Master (8) as a saver in trifecta combinations given the wide-open nature of the race and potential for surprise finishes in the finale.
