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Race 1 – Maiden Special Weight, 7.0F Dirt
Win: 6 Trust The Climb – 100% confidence
Place: 2 Not My Circus – 71% confidence
Show: 3 Mr Mahomes – 57% confidence
Alternative: 7 My Brothers Angel – 43% confidence
Analysts strongly favor Trust The Climb, who has placed in all three career starts and demonstrates consistent early speed. Not My Circus shows improvement and could challenge for the place position. The stretch-out to seven furlongs may benefit Mr Mahomes if he can secure favorable positioning. My Brothers Angel represents an interesting value option with limited career starts but improving form patterns.
Race 2 – Claiming, 7.0F Dirt
Win: 8 Ridiculous – 57% confidence
Place: 6 Woke Up In Love – 57% confidence
Show: 2 Subject To Change – 57% confidence
Alternative: 1 Smooth Rico – 29% confidence
This competitive claiming race features strong opinions on the top three selections. Ridiculous drops in class after decent efforts and possesses strong course form. Woke Up In Love returns from a brief layoff and has won over this course and distance previously. Subject To Change benefits from the quick turnaround and tactical speed.
Race 3 – Claiming, 7.0F Dirt, Fillies and Mares
Win: 3 Sassy Maxine – 86% confidence
Place: 2 Empire’s Treat – 57% confidence
Show: 5 Ritz On Broadway – 29% confidence
Alternative: 4 Emm Ess Eh – 57% confidence
Sassy Maxine garners near-unanimous support from Pick Pony analysts after a strong second-place finish last time combined with a previous victory at the track. Empire’s Treat offers consistent placing efforts throughout her current campaign. The race appears wide open for the show position between Ritz On Broadway and Emm Ess Eh.
Race 4 – Allowance, 7.0F Dirt
Win: 2 Coastal Cruise – 100% confidence
Place: 1 Zachamundo – 86% confidence
Show: 6 Gimmethatsugar – 57% confidence
Alternative: 4 Candy Man Can – 43% confidence
Coastal Cruise receives unanimous support from all Pick Pony analysts after winning his seasonal debut and demonstrating strong Charles Town form. Zachamundo consistently places and should provide the main challenge. Gimmethatsugar and Candy Man Can both offer competitive efforts for the minor placings.
Race 5 – Allowance, 7.0F Dirt
Win: 8 Holiday Cash – 50% confidence
Place: 3 Indicator – 50% confidence
Show: 7 Fiber Proof – 71% confidence
Alternative: 2 Swift Waters – 43% confidence
This allowance race presents a challenging handicapping puzzle with divided opinions. Holiday Cash narrowly missed last start and seeks redemption. Indicator stretches out in distance for the first time, which adds uncertainty despite strong placing form. Fiber Proof has demonstrated Charles Town proficiency with a victory earlier in the campaign.
Race 6 – Claiming, 7.5F Dirt
Win: 6 C R’s Mandate – 50% confidence
Place: 8 Strategist – 71% confidence
Show: 1 Bear Hunt – 57% confidence
Alternative: 2 Sir Banana Brian – 29% confidence
Opinions split between C R’s Mandate and Strategist for the win position. C R’s Mandate enters off a victory and shows consistent Charles Town form. Strategist drops in class after difficult recent efforts and has strong career numbers as a favorite. Bear Hunt won earlier this campaign and returns to favorable conditions.
Race 7 – Allowance Optional Claiming, 8.5F Dirt
Win: 7 Classic Joke – 71% confidence
Place: 5 Memory Bouquet – 57% confidence
Show: 9 Game Keeper – 29% confidence
Alternative: 1 Gran Andrews – 29% confidence
Classic Joke draws strong support after winning his most recent start over course and distance. Memory Bouquet has won consecutive races and demonstrates consistent tactical speed. Game Keeper and Gran Andrews both possess strong credentials but face challenging assignments in this competitive allowance optional claiming event.
Race 8 – Claiming, 7.0F Dirt, Fillies and Mares
Win: 3 Talbot Heirloom – 71% confidence
Place: 2 Lil Sweezey – 86% confidence
Show: 4 Want All The Smoke – 43% confidence
Alternative: 7 Maidens Blush – 29% confidence
Talbot Heirloom receives majority support despite a disappointing most recent effort, based on a strong victory two starts back. Lil Sweezey just broke her maiden impressively and attempts her first start at Charles Town. Want All The Smoke and Maidens Blush both possess upset potential in this competitive claiming event.
Recommended Exotic Bets and Value Plays
Early Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3): Key 6 Trust The Climb in Race 1, use 6 Woke Up In Love and 8 Ridiculous in Race 2, spread to 2 Empire’s Treat, 3 Sassy Maxine, and 5 Ritz On Broadway in Race 3. This structure captures the consensus top selections while maintaining reasonable ticket cost.
Middle Pick 4 (Races 4-5-6-7): Single 2 Coastal Cruise in Race 4, use 3 Indicator, 7 Fiber Proof, and 8 Holiday Cash in Race 5, box 6 C R’s Mandate and 8 Strategist in Race 6, then spread to 5 Memory Bouquet, 7 Classic Joke, and 9 Game Keeper in Race 7. This aggressive approach targets strong consensus selections.
Late Double (Races 7-8): Connect 5 Memory Bouquet and 7 Classic Joke in Race 7 with 2 Lil Sweezey and 3 Talbot Heirloom in Race 8. Both races feature competitive fields where multiple outcomes remain possible.
Exacta Value Play Race 1: Box 2 Not My Circus and 7 My Brothers Angel as a value exacta option. While Trust The Climb dominates handicapper selections, these two horses offer competitive odds and legitimate upset potential.
Trifecta Value Play Race 5: Key 8 Holiday Cash on top, use 3 Indicator and 7 Fiber Proof for second, then spread to 2 Swift Waters, 3 Indicator, 5 Renegade Rabbit, 6 Blessings Bestowed, and 7 Fiber Proof for third. This competitive allowance race creates opportunities for enhanced payouts.
Superfecta Play Race 7: Use 5 Memory Bouquet and 7 Classic Joke for first, box 1 Gran Andrews, 2 Head Lad, 9 Game Keeper, and 10 Don Tequilas underneath. The route distance and class conditions create tactical racing scenarios that could produce generous superfecta dividends.
Pick Pony analysts identify Race 4 as offering the strongest betting opportunity with Coastal Cruise receiving unanimous support at reasonable morning line odds. Race 5 presents the most challenging handicapping puzzle with divided expert opinions creating value opportunities for astute bettors.
