Pick Pony takes pride in providing the most accurate expert picks available today. Pick Pony Expert Picks are carefully selected by our team of analysts based on analytics from our advanced Past Performance Sheets and Racing Forms. For potential longshot selections, check out Pick Pony’s AI Picks.
Race 1 – Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile, Dirt, $48,000 WIN + TRIFECTA
Win: 1 Stay Beautiful (85%)Place: 7 G Rocks (77%)🥇
Show: 5 Golexgo (46%)🥈
Alternative: 2 Midnight Flight (31%)🥉
Notes: Stay Beautiful emerges as the consensus favorite with 11 of 13 analysts backing her in some capacity. The filly has demonstrated consistency with two runner-up finishes from three starts and placed second last time at Horseshoe Indianapolis. G Rocks receives strong support as the class dropper who could rebound from a troubled trip at Churchill Downs previously. The outside post draw with Tyler Gaffalione provides tactical advantages. Golexgo offers value as an alternative with course experience, while Midnight Flight enters the equation with three analysts including her in their selections despite limited public form information.
Race 2 – Claiming, 6 Furlongs, Dirt, $45,000 WIN
Win: 2 Starlit Nite (77%)🥇
Place: 1 Cinnamon Sugar (69%)
Show: 3 Dos Amores (56%)🥉
Alternative: 7 Aye Bay Bay (31%)🥈
Notes: Starlit Nite commands strong consensus after winning impressively at Churchill Downs two runs back. The filly gets Irad Ortiz Jr in the saddle, adding confidence. Cinnamon Sugar has been knocking on the door with consistent form at this distance, showing two placings at Churchill Downs but unable to secure victory. Dos Amores finished a solid second in similar company last time and won earlier this prep at Belterra Park. Early speed figures prominently in this six-furlong sprint, making pace scenario critical for handicapping.
Race 3 – Claiming, 6 1/2 Furlongs, Dirt, $78,000 WIN ($4.38) + EXACTA ($9.56)
Win: 3 Patty Van Twinkle (69%)🥇
Place: 5 Promises To Dance (69%)🥈Show: 2 Copper Em (54%)
Alternative: 4 Curlin’s Magic (23%)
Notes: The top two selections receive equal confidence percentages, creating genuine uncertainty about the winner. Patty Van Twinkle steps down in class after consistent efforts at higher levels and returns from a 31-week break as a last-start winner at Aqueduct. Promises To Dance won over course and distance last time and shows strong affinity for Churchill Downs. Copper Em provides value as a class dropper bouncing back from a poor effort, garnering support from seven analysts. The race setup suggests early pace pressure could benefit closers.
Race 4 – Claiming, 6 Furlongs, Dirt, $62,100 WIN + BOXED TRIFECTA
Win: 3 Ravin’s Ransom (54%)🥇Place: 2 Kirin (62%)Show: 4 Sexagenarian (46%)🥉
Alternative: 5 Shan (46%)🥈
Notes: Kirin won over course and distance last time and looks well-placed to follow up, drawing the strongest place support. Ravin’s Ransom returns from a six-week freshening in excellent form with an impressive strike rate of four wins from seven attempts this campaign. Sexagenarian has shown promise and placed when fresh, while Shan comes back to non-metro class after finishing third at Keeneland. The pace scenario appears favorable with multiple speed types ensuring honest fractions that could set up tactical types.
Race 5 – Allowance, 1 Mile, Turf, $127,000
Win: 8 Something Stronger (38%)
Place: 4 Tricky Kitty (38%)
Show: 5 Low Key in Love (46%)🥈
Alternative: 9 Princess Attitude (54%)
Notes: This allowance turf contest features exceptional depth with widespread analyst opinions reflecting genuine uncertainty. Something Stronger returns from a 27-week layoff after breaking her maiden at Churchill Downs when fresh last time. Tricky Kitty brings solid form and owns a course and distance victory. Low Key in Love makes her first start in 32 weeks as a maiden winner from Tampa Bay Downs. Princess Attitude leads the alternative category with consistent form against tougher opposition at Keeneland. The wide-open nature creates outstanding exotic wagering opportunities with multiple legitimate contenders.
Race 6 – Maiden Claiming, 6 1/2 Furlongs, Dirt, $67,000
Win: 11 Desperate Dreams (46%)
Place: 7 Justice Addition (38%)
Show: 12 Honorisia (23%)
Alternative: 10 Souperrazzledazzle (31%)
Notes: Limited form makes this maiden claiming event particularly challenging for analysts. Desperate Dreams finished a close third last time at Churchill Downs and could improve with that fitness foundation. Justice Addition represents the powerful Brad Cox barn with Irad Ortiz Jr riding, adding credibility despite limited public workouts. Honorisia debuts with morning training suggesting readiness. Souperrazzledazzle placed when fresh before a stint at Woodbine. The spread of analyst opinions across multiple horses reflects genuine uncertainty, suggesting longshots could factor prominently in the finish.
Race 7 – Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles, Dirt, $63,000
Win: 5 Manage Xpectations (69%)
Place: 10 Wits And Wagers (54%)🥉
Show: 1 Aggro (23%)
Alternative: 6 Mizmalice (31%)
Notes: Manage Xpectations earned strong consensus support after winning last time at Keeneland with rock-solid form in her previous three races. Wits And Wagers brings strong recent form with two placings from four starts this prep, finishing third at Churchill Downs last time. Aggro has shown ability at this level and distance, particularly in off-track conditions. Mizmalice possesses strong Churchill Downs credentials with multiple wins at the track. The two-turn, 1 1/16-mile distance favors horses with tactical speed who can maintain stamina through the stretch.
Race 8 – Maiden Special Weight, 6 1/2 Furlongs, Dirt, $120,000
Win: 4 Joke Maker (62%)
Place: 7 Kayla’s Komet (54%)🥈
Show: 8 Touch Of Magic (38%)🥉
Alternative: 3 Marjoram (38%)🥇
Notes: Joke Maker has been ultra-consistent without winning, including a strong placed form with a close second last time at Keeneland. The colt appears on the verge of graduation. Kayla’s Komet returns from rest with encouraging placed efforts in both career starts and should benefit from the freshening. Touch Of Magic returns after eight weeks off following a fifth-place finish at Churchill Downs. Marjoram debuts with impressive morning workouts leading up to her first start. The maiden special weight conditions attract quality prospects making debuts or seeking breakthrough victories.
Race 9 – Claiming, 7 Furlongs, Dirt, $76,000
Win: 1 Thunderhawk (62%)Place: 8 Good Lord (38%)
Show: 2 Bob’s Carrot (38%)🥈
Alternative: 10 Colonel Caliente (23%)
Notes: Thunderhawk receives strong consensus backing despite returning from a 42-week layoff for Peter Eurton. The rail draw provides advantages in this one-turn, seven-furlong test. Good Lord brings current form and tactical speed. Bob’s Carrot finished runner-up here recently as the favorite and won earlier at Churchill Downs this prep. The Chalk broke his maiden last time at Churchill Downs but faces a step up in class. The configuration favors forwardly-placed runners who can control the pace.
Race 10 – Commonwealth Turf Stakes (Grade 3), 1 1/16 Miles, Turf, $300,000
Win: 2 Troubleshooting (69%)
Place: 3 Montador (54%)
Show: 6 Mansetti (31%)
Alternative: 7 Giocoso (23%)🥇
Notes: Troubleshooting looks well-placed to follow up on Grade 3 success, seeking a third consecutive victory after wins at Keeneland and Kentucky Downs. Montador is progressing nicely and poses the main threat after flying late to win at Churchill Downs. Mansetti brings strong credentials with three wins from six starts this campaign but disappointed when favored last time at Woodbine on synthetic surface. The switch to turf could spark improvement. Giocoso has solid form and offers value at longer odds. This Grade 3 stakes features quality depth with multiple graded stakes winners.
Race 11 – Starter Allowance, 1 1/16 Miles, Dirt, $83,000 WIN
Win: 2 Sleepingonfreedom (46%)🥇
Place: 8 Horse Of The Sea (38%)
Show: 5 Just Asap (38%)
Alternative: 6 Big Apple Patrick (15%)🥉
Notes: Sleepingonfreedom looks well-placed to build on his maiden victory at Keeneland when returning from a layoff. The colt has won or placed in both career starts showing early talent. Horse Of The Sea won at Churchill Downs and placed once this campaign as a consistent performer. Just Asap steps down in class after a Grade 1 attempt, potentially finding this level more suitable. Big Apple Patrick earned best bet status from one analyst despite limited overall support, suggesting possible value. The two-turn distance rewards horses with tactical speed and closing ability.
Recommended Exotic Bets and Value Plays
Early Pick 4 (Races 1-4)
Pick Pony analysts suggest keying 1 Stay Beautiful and 7 G Rocks in the opener, spreading through 2 Starlit Nite and 1 Cinnamon Sugar in Race 2, then using all top selections in Race 3 led by 3 Patty Van Twinkle and 5 Promises To Dance, and spreading in the competitive Race 4 with 2 Kirin, 3 Ravin’s Ransom, and 4 Sexagenarian.
Middle Pick 4 (Races 5-8)
The turf allowance opens interesting opportunities. Spread wide in Race 5 including 8 Something Stronger, 4 Tricky Kitty, 5 Low Key in Love, and 9 Princess Attitude, then cover multiple horses in the challenging Race 6 maiden claimer including 11 Desperate Dreams, 7 Justice Addition, and 12 Honorisia, before returning to strength with 5 Manage Xpectations in Race 7 and 4 Joke Maker in Race 8.
Late Pick 4 (Races 8-11)
Structure around 4 Joke Maker and 7 Kayla’s Komet in Race 8, include 1 Thunderhawk and 8 Good Lord in the claiming sprint Race 9, single or key 2 Troubleshooting in the Grade 3 stakes, then spread the finale with 2 Sleepingonfreedom, 8 Horse Of The Sea, and 5 Just Asap.
Exacta Value Plays
Race 1: Box 1-7 for the top two consensus selections at solid value given their combined 162 percent confidence.
Race 3: Box 3-5 for Patty Van Twinkle and Promises To Dance who received equal support.
Race 7: Key 5 Manage Xpectations over 10 Wits And Wagers and 1 Aggro.
Race 10: Box 2 Troubleshooting with 3 Montador in the Grade 3 Commonwealth Turf Stakes.
Trifecta Opportunities
Race 2: 2 Starlit Nite with 1 Cinnamon Sugar and 3 Dos Amores provides strong value with all three receiving significant analyst support from 10 of 13 handicappers.
Race 8: Box 4 Joke Maker, 7 Kayla’s Komet, and 8 Touch Of Magic in the maiden special weight.
Race 10: Use 2 Troubleshooting on top over 3 Montador and 6 Mansetti in the stakes race for solid returns.
Superfecta Value
Race 5 presents excellent superfecta potential given the even distribution of analyst support across four legitimate contenders. Box 8 Something Stronger, 4 Tricky Kitty, 5 Low Key in Love, and 9 Princess Attitude for maximum coverage. Any combination could produce significant returns given the wide-open nature.
Best Single-Race Bets
Race 10 offers the strongest consensus with 2 Troubleshooting receiving 69 percent confidence in the Grade 3 Commonwealth Turf Stakes. The horse seeks a third straight win with proven graded stakes ability, representing excellent value for win wagering at likely favorable odds.
Longshot Value
Race 6 presents the most uncertain contest where multiple longshots could offer significant value. The open nature of the maiden claiming event suggests 15 Lady Upstart or 12 Honorisia could produce substantial returns as alternative selections despite receiving limited overall support.
Derby City Six Strategy
Analysts recommend constructing tickets with chalk in the strongest consensus races (Races 1, 2, 7, 8, 10) while spreading in the wide-open contests (Races 3, 5, 6, 11) to maximize coverage while controlling costs. Single 2 Troubleshooting in Race 10 as the strongest play of the day.
Daily Double Opportunities
Race 9-10: Key 1 Thunderhawk in Race 9 with 2 Troubleshooting in the Grade 3 stakes for attractive odds.
Race 10-11: Single 2 Troubleshooting then spread Race 11 with 2 Sleepingonfreedom, 8 Horse Of The Sea, and 5 Just Asap.
Best Value Plays
Race 4: 2 Kirin offers the best value play of the day with 62 percent place confidence but moderate win support, suggesting the horse could outperform odds.
Race 9: 1 Thunderhawk returning from a 42-week layoff with strong analyst backing at potentially generous odds.
