Pick Pony takes pride in providing the most accurate expert picks available today. Pick Pony Expert Picks are carefully selected by our team of analysts based on analytics from our advanced Past Performance Sheets and Racing Forms. For potential longshot selections, check out Pick Pony’s AI Picks.
Note: Sometimes, a pick may appear twice; in such cases, we expect the horse to finish in one of the two predicted positions.
Race 1 – Claiming, 5F Dirt, Purse 16,000
First post has been moved to 12:00 PM to try and beat incoming storm. Del Mar has lowered the bottom claiming level to 5k, this five-furlong sprint is the first Del Mar race at the level.
Win: 6-Halo Uncle (67% confidence)🥈
Place: 7-Too Much Info (50% confidence)
Show: 1-Evenerevenworse (42% confidence)🥇
Alternative: 8-Hot Chicks Only (33% confidence)
Notes: Halo Uncle is strongly favored with 8 of 12 experts selecting him for win, place, or show. The gelding is 2-for-4 at Del Mar with natural speed and rallied for second at this level with best last-out dirt Beyer of 73. Too Much Info has positional speed and was bumped at break last time. Evenerevenworse won last time stretching out from 1,000-yard race at Los Al. Hot Chicks Only broke through gate pre-race last time, toss that effort.
Race 2 – Maiden Special Weight, 1M Turf, Purse 60,000
Three scheduled grass races on the Friday card, monitor for potential late changes due to rain. Mirco Demuro enters third week of meet on top of standings with 8 wins from only 15 mounts.
Win: 7-Druliner (75% confidence)
Place: 2-Cecilia Street (67% confidence)🥇
Show: 3-Coyote Cafe (58% confidence)🥉
Alternative: 5-Humidity (42% confidence)
Notes: Druliner runner-up as favorite both recent starts in similar situations, finished in front of four of six rivals she meets here. Cecilia Street finished much-improved third when switched to grass last time, fired pair of smart four-furlong drills since. Gets hot rider Demuro. Coyote Cafe first-up after 11 week spell, had trouble in common race with Druliner. Humidity only two and quarter lengths behind Druliner on debut, trainer 25% winners with second-start maidens.
Race 3 – Claiming, 5.5F Dirt, Purse 21,000 BOXED TRIFECTA
Win: 5-Shop Till You Drop (75% confidence)🥉
Place: 7-Anna’s Wish (50% confidence)🥈
Show: 2-Danzing Cat (42% confidence)🥇
Alternative: 4-Fondest Dream (33% confidence)
Notes: Shop Till You Drop drops to career-low 10k claiming tag third off bench, making this the money run. Baltas reclaimed her earlier this year, suggesting confidence she can clear this condition. Anna’s Wish showed courage last time running second at this level, blinkers off responded positively. Class dropper with good late kick but short distance concern. Danzing Cat has speed, switching to Maldonado and running over track where she finished one-two in four of seven. Fondest Dream adds blinkers with good early speed, wired 12.5k field two back at Los Al.
Race 4 – Maiden Special Weight, 6.5F Dirt
Win: 5-Latitude (64% confidence)🥉
Place: 2-Simple Song (64% confidence)🥇
Show: 8-Cheever (50% confidence)Alternative: 6-Mutaz (25% confidence)
Notes: Highly competitive maiden with top two closely matched. Latitude posted 92 Beyer in debut, finished behind next-out winner Modus Bestia who won N1X allowance. Gets Mike Smith aboard. Simple Song surrendered three-length lead on debut to finish second with 88 Beyer, clearly the one to catch as likely pacesetter. Cheever was gelded prior to most recent start, third-place finish in same race as Latitude. Will be running in lane. Mutaz placed at Santa Anita second-up but finished 25 lengths off winner when fresh.
Race 5 – Claiming, 1M Turf
Win: 3-Starry Night (73% confidence)Place: 5-Cheekiest (64% confidence)
Show: 6-Shin Jidai (36% confidence)🥈
Alternative: 7-Giggle Giggle (36% confidence)🥉
Notes: Wide-open 25k claiming mile for fillies and mares on turf. Starry Night won back-to-back nine-furlong races recently at Colonial Downs, looking for hat trick first-up after 10 week break. Ships in from Colonial for trainer Jonathan Thomas with favorable jockey-trainer combo at 36% wins with grass runners. Cheekiest runs well over Del Mar turf with one win and two thirds from three starts, off five months but runs well fresh. Shin Jidai finished strong third beaten only neck off five-month layoff, should appreciate stretch-out to mile with field’s best last-out turf Beyer of 75. Giggle Giggle’s two Del Mar turf starts were highest rated of career, productive Eurton-Fresu combo.
Race 6 – Maiden Special Weight, 1M Dirt
Win: 7-Banzai Betty (42% confidence)
Place: 8-Consequent (42% confidence)🥇
Show: 1-Conquistadora (42% confidence)
Alternative: 2-Shane’s The Brains (42% confidence)
Notes: Extremely competitive maiden race with four different horses receiving nearly equal expert support. No clear favorite emerges from handicapping. Banzai Betty drops back to maiden ranks after well-beaten fourth in Grade 2 Oak Leaf, was runner-up here at Del Mar in debut. Consequent makes debut for powerful Baffert barn with Juan Hernandez, full sister to two-time stakes winner Show Card, trainer won with 3 of last 6 dirt-route firsters. Conquistadora showed promise in debut on grass with late rally, trainer McCarthy adds blinkers for second start. Shane’s The Brains ships from Kentucky with blinkers off, switches to dirt third career try, O’Neill-Fresu combo at 26% wins since spring 2023.
Race 7 – Maiden Claiming, 1M Turf
Win: 6-Sasafran (58% confidence)Place: 2-Dialing Destiny (58% confidence)🥈
Show: 4-Big A’s Little One (42% confidence)
Alternative: 1-Jenny’s Wine Girl (25% confidence)🥉
Notes: Competitive maiden claiming event on turf. Sasafran adds first-time claiming tag after troubled start last time, jumped in air and lost all chance. Maximus Mischief filly has enough gate speed to grab lead if minds manners. Dialing Destiny drops in class from maiden special weight to maiden claiming, meets much easier competition. Adds Umberto Rispoli after series of troubled trips. Big A’s Little One tries turf and route for first time, looms upset candidate. Dam won on turf, should be forwardly placed. Runner-up finish two starts back in dirt sprint ranks among fastest by any in field. Jenny’s Wine Girl broke slow on debut, moves to grass on stretch-out. Baltas barn 27% winners with dirt-to-turf second-time starters.
Race 8 – Claiming, 6.5F Dirt
Win: 3-Atomic Drop (91% confidence)
Place: 7-Geezer (50% confidence)🥇
Show: 4-Cupid’s Crusader (33% confidence)
Alternative: 2-Major Tom (25% confidence)
Notes: Atomic Drop is overwhelming consensus choice, selected by 10 of 11 experts. Class dropper is 10 for 41 lifetime and multiple winner over this main track. Drops to 10k claiming after misfiring in tougher race where two-three finishers returned to win. Adds aggressive rider Edwin Maldonado, sure to use speed and should control pace from start. Standout play of the day. Geezer has multiple Del Mar wins, won once this prep at track 10 runs back. May be listed too low, never raced at this claiming level before. Cupid’s Crusader moves back to dirt off troubled trip when breaking slow and running up on heels, figures to be making up good ground late. Major Tom respected after close second recently.
Recommended Exotic Bets and Value Plays
Race 1 Multi-Race Anchor: Key 6-Halo Uncle in Early Pick 5 and Daily Double with Race 2. Strongest consensus horse in opening race with 67% confidence rating. Natural speed for favorable tracking position at new 5k claiming level where he has proven Del Mar form.
Race 2 Exacta Strategy: Box 7-Druliner with 2-Cecilia Street for solid value. Part the top two with 3-Coyote Cafe. Cecilia Street gets Mirco Demuro who is on fire at meet with 8 wins from 15 mounts. Both top selections have finished in front of multiple rivals they meet here. Monitor weather for potential turf-to-dirt change.
Race 3 Trifecta Box: Key 5-Shop Till You Drop over 7-Anna’s Wish, 2-Danzing Cat, 4-Fondest Dream. Shop Till You Drop third off bench at career-low tag represents money run. Add 4-Fondest Dream on top for upset potential with new blinkers and early speed. Baltas has strong record with class droppers making third start of form cycle.
Race 4 Exacta Wheel: Play 5-Latitude over 2-Simple Song, 8-Cheever, 6-Mutaz. Also reverse with 2-Simple Song on top over 5-Latitude. These two are evenly matched with 64% confidence each but contrasting running styles. Latitude gets top jockey Mike Smith, posted higher Beyer figure. Simple Song likely controls pace.
Race 5 Rolling Exacta: Use 3-Starry Night with ALL both ways given wide-open nature of this turf claiming race. Multiple horses returning from layoffs creates uncertainty. Starry Night has highest confidence at 73% but field is deep. Alternative play: Box 3-Starry Night, 5-Cheekiest, 6-Shin Jidai for trifecta coverage.
Race 6 Value Upset Play: 2-Shane’s The Brains at 6-1 morning line represents best value in extremely competitive maiden. Blinkers off, switches to dirt, gets Antonio Fresu. Trainer Doug O’Neill has been loaded this meet. Race has no clear favorite with four horses at 42% confidence, creating perfect upset scenario for good-priced horse.
Race 7 Trifecta Coverage: Box 6-Sasafran, 2-Dialing Destiny, 4-Big A’s Little One with 1-Jenny’s Wine Girl fourth. Top three closely bunched at 58%, 58%, 42% confidence. First-time tag on Sasafran adds intrigue. Dialing Destiny class dropper with rider upgrade. Big A’s Little One first-time turf/route with strong recent dirt sprint form.
Race 8 Single and Anchor: Use 3-Atomic Drop as single in all multi-race wagers including Pick 3, Pick 4, Pick 5. Unanimous selection with 91% confidence, highest of entire card. Class dropping 7-year-old gelding with 10 lifetime wins gets aggressive rider, should wire field. Build Late Pick 3 and Late Pick 4 around this standout.
Best Bet of the Day: Race 8, 3-Atomic Drop to WIN. Consensus pick across all major handicappers. Class drop, proven Del Mar winner, speed with rail-sitting trip likely. Near lock play.
Late Pick 4 Construction: Races 5-8. Spread in Race 5 using 3-Starry Night, 5-Cheekiest, 6-Shin Jidai, 7-Giggle Giggle. Use 4 horses in Race 6 given competitive nature: 7-Banzai Betty, 8-Consequent, 1-Conquistadora, 2-Shane’s The Brains. Narrow to 3 in Race 7: 6-Sasafran, 2-Dialing Destiny, 4-Big A’s Little One. Single 3-Atomic Drop in Race 8. Total combinations: 4x4x3x1 = 48 combinations at $0.50 = $24 investment targeting $100-200 payout.
Late Pick 5 Strategy: Races 4-8. Use A-B-C structure. Race 4: A horses 5-Latitude, 2-Simple Song. Race 5: B horses 3-Starry Night, 5-Cheekiest, 6-Shin Jidai. Race 6: C horses ALL (spread wide given competitiveness). Race 7: B horses 6-Sasafran, 2-Dialing Destiny, 4-Big A’s Little One. Race 8: Single 3-Atomic Drop. Combinations: 2x3x8x3x1 = 144 at $0.50 = $72 investment.
Weather Advisory: Three turf races scheduled (Races 2, 5, 7). Over inch of rain forecast, Saturday already canceled. First post moved to 12:00 PM to beat storm. Monitor late scratches and surface changes. If turf races move to dirt, reconsider all turf-specific analysis.
