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Race 1: Maiden Special Weight, 6 1/2 Furlongs, Dirt
Win: Running Faith (7) – 75% confidence
Place: Chicka Chick (8) – 25% confidence
Show: Lost Art (3) – 50% confidence
Alternative: Alizae (1) – 25% confidence
Race Notes: Three out of four analysts selected Running Faith (7) to win, creating a high-confidence consensus favorite to start the card. While Alizae (1) received one win vote, the majority opinion heavily favors the number 7 horse. The minor placings are less settled, though Lost Art (3) appears frequently in the lower rungs of the analyst selections.
Race 2: Claiming, 5 Furlongs, Dirt
Win: Double L’s Army (5) – 50% confidence
Place: Aye Bay Bay (6) – 50% confidence
Show: Hold The Drama (4) – 50% confidence
Alternative: Ridearoundsalley (1) – 25% confidence
Race Notes: This race is a clear two-horse affair in the eyes of the analysts, with win votes split evenly between Double L’s Army (5) and Aye Bay Bay (6). No other horse received a win selection. The consensus suggests these two should be used as a team in multi-race wagers, as they are the only two viewed as contenders for the top spot.
Race 3: Maiden Claiming, 5 Furlongs, Dirt
Win: Dogwood Blessing (8) – 50% confidence
Place: Dat Hint (1) – 75% confidence
Show: Boston Moon (4) – 50% confidence
Alternative: Shadow Dancer (6) – 25% confidence
Race Notes: While Dogwood Blessing (8) has the slight edge in win votes, Dat Hint (1) is the most consistent horse on the board, appearing in the top two or three selections for 75% of the analysts. The disagreement on the winner combined with high placement frequency for Dat Hint suggests a competitive race where the 1 horse is a must-use in exotics.
Race 4: Claiming, 6 1/2 Furlongs, Dirt
Win: Clever Race (5) – 50% confidence
Place: Anslie’s Gumdrop (6) – 50% confidence
Show: Kerrigan’s Touch (2) – 50% confidence
Alternative: Goldzone (9) – 25% confidence
Race Notes: Similar to Race 2, this is a polarized event. Clever Race (5) and Anslie’s Gumdrop (6) command all the attention for the win and place positions. The 50-50 split in win votes indicates a tight contest between these two, with the rest of the field largely relegated to fighting for show money.
Race 5: Maiden Claiming, 5 Furlongs, Dirt
Win: Pakula (7) – 75% confidence
Place: Knight’s Valor (3) – 75% confidence
Show: Mischievous Intent (5) – 50% confidence
Alternative: Get The Boss (2) – 25% confidence
Race Notes: Pakula (7) is a strong consensus favorite with 75% of the win support. Knight’s Valor (3) is solidly entrenched as the second choice, also appearing on 75% of tickets but mostly in the place position. This alignment suggests a highly probable 7-3 exacta outcome according to the data.
Race 6: Claiming, 1 Mile, Dirt
Win: Miss St. Claire (1) – 100% confidence
Place: She’s A Bandit (5) – 50% confidence
Show: Plum Wine (7) – 50% confidence
Alternative: Smart Izzy (4) – 25% confidence
Race Notes: This is the only unanimous consensus on the entire card. Every single analyst selected Miss St. Claire (1) to win. This level of agreement marks her as the “lock” of the night and a foundational single for any pick sequences. The battle for second is evenly divided between She’s A Bandit (5) and Plum Wine (7).
Race 7: Allowance, 5 Furlongs, Dirt
Win: Storm After Dark (6) – 75% confidence
Place: Echo Juliet (1) – 50% confidence
Show: Hint Of Promise (5) – 50% confidence
Alternative: Final Shipman (4) – 25% confidence
Race Notes: Storm After Dark (6) dominates the analysis with 75% of the win votes. The lone dissenting vote went to Echo Juliet (1), who is also the consensus choice for second place. The data depicts a clear hierarchy: the 6 is the horse to beat, the 1 is the main danger, and the rest are fighting for minor shares.
Race 8: Allowance, 1 Mile, Dirt
Win: Big Drinker (4) – 50% confidence
Place: Hamlin (2) – 75% confidence
Show: Indian Cat (1) – 50% confidence
Alternative: Hegs (7) – 25% confidence
Race Notes: Opinion is fractured here. Big Drinker (4) leads with 50% of the win votes, but Hamlin (2) is actually the more frequent selection overall, appearing in the top two on 75% of cards. Indian Cat (1) adds to the confusion with a win vote of his own. This race has the highest potential for volatility among the top contenders.
Race 9: Claiming, 5 Furlongs, Dirt
Win: Storm Sniper (9) – 50% confidence
Place: Longneck (1) – 50% confidence
Show: Valid Deelite (5) – 75% confidence
Alternative: Run Pistol Magic (6) – 25% confidence
Race Notes: The nightcap is a scramble. Storm Sniper (9) has a tenuous hold on the favorite status with 50% of the win votes. However, Valid Deelite (5) is the most common name mentioned, appearing on 75% of analyst lists, primarily in exotic slots. Longneck (1) is another live contender. This race requires spreading coverage.
Recommended Exotic Plays by Race
Race 1: Trifecta Key Key Running Faith (7) over Chicka Chick (8), Lost Art (3), and Alizae (1). The strong consensus on the winner makes this a low-cost, high-probability structure.
Race 2: Exacta Box Box Double L’s Army (5) and Aye Bay Bay (6). The analysts have effectively narrowed this race down to a match race; boxing them ensures you cash regardless of which one prevails.
Race 3: Trifecta Box Box Dat Hint (1), Boston Moon (4), and Dogwood Blessing (8). With no dominant win consensus but three clear top selections, a box covers the likely permutation.
Race 4: Exacta Straight Play Clever Race (5) over Anslie’s Gumdrop (6). While the win vote is split, the preference for Clever Race in the top slot is slightly stronger in the underlying data. Consider a smaller reverse saver (6-5).
Race 5: Cold Exacta Play Pakula (7) over Knight’s Valor (3). The alignment of 75% confidence for the win (Pakula) and 75% confidence for the place (Knight’s Valor) creates a mathematically strong straight wager.
Race 6: Daily Double Key Key Miss St. Claire (1) in the first leg. She is the unanimous choice. Pair her with Storm After Dark (6) and Echo Juliet (1) in Race 7 to leverage the two strongest opinions on the card.
Race 7: Trifecta Key Key Storm After Dark (6) over Echo Juliet (1), Hint Of Promise (5), and Final Shipman (4). The 6 is a standout, and using him on top of the consensus minor award winners offers decent value.
Race 8: Trifecta Box Box Indian Cat (1), Hamlin (2), and Big Drinker (4). The disagreement on the winner here makes a straight bet risky; a box ensures you catch the winner among the three capable contenders.
Race 9: Superfecta Wheel Wheel Storm Sniper (9) and Longneck (1) in the first position, with Valid Deelite (5) keyed in the second and third spots, and All in the fourth spot. This captures the volatility of the finale while respecting the consistency of the 5 horse.
Value Play Observations
Race 1: Chicka Chick (8) offers potential value. While Running Faith is the heavy favorite, Chicka Chick is a consistent Place selection. If the public overbets the favorite, the Place and Show pools on the 8 may be underlaid relative to her probability of hitting the board.
Race 3: Dat Hint (1) is a prime “board hitter” value. Despite only one win vote, she appears on 75% of tickets. In a race with a shaky favorite, she is a reliable anchor for vertical wagers (trifectas/superfectas) even if she doesn’t win.
Race 8: Hamlin (2) is the hidden value. He received only one win vote but appeared in the top two on 75% of analyst cards. This profile often results in higher win odds than warranted by consistency. He is an excellent candidate for “across the board” wagers or as a key in the second leg of doubles.
Race 9: Valid Deelite (5) is the defensive key. With 75% mentions but mostly for minor awards, this horse is likely to drift in the win pool. Using him in the 2nd or 3rd spot of exotics adds stability to tickets in a chaotic race without paying a premium price.
Overall Wagering Strategy
The analytical profile of the February 11 card at Delta Downs suggests a “barbell” approach to wagering: aggressive isolation in the middle of the card where consensus is strong, and defensive spreading in the bookend races where opinions diverge.
Strongest Consensus Races Race 6 provides the cornerstone of the entire evening. Miss St. Claire (1) is a unanimous selection, a rarity that signals extreme confidence. Races 1 (Running Faith), 5 (Pakula), and 7 (Storm After Dark) also feature dominant favorites with 75% backing. These four races are the “Singles” around which all multi-race tickets (Pick 3, Pick 4, Pick 5) should be constructed.
Split-Opinion Races Races 2, 4, and 8 serve as the “separators.” In Races 2 and 4, the field is essentially reduced to two horses. Bettors should not overcomplicate these legs; simple two-horse boxes or small spreads are sufficient. Race 8 is the most dangerous leg of the late sequences. With three credible winners (1, 2, 4) and no clear hierarchy, this is the race most likely to produce a price or bust a ticket that is too narrow.
Multi-Race Sequences The Pick 4 covering Races 5-8 is the most attractive sequence. A ticket structure of 7 / 1 / 6 / 1,2,4 costs very little and covers the three high-confidence singles while spreading three-deep in the contentious Race 8. For a Pick 5 starting in Race 5, use the same structure but add deep coverage (All or 5+ horses) in the volatile Race 9.
Exotic Value Opportunities The “Cold Exacta” opportunities in Races 5 (7-3) and 6 (1-5/1-7) allow for concentrated straight bets that maximize return on investment. Conversely, Race 9 is a “chaos” race. The lack of a dominant favorite and the spread of picks among the 1, 5, and 9 suggests that high-paying exotic combinations are possible. This is the place to deploy Superfecta wheels or wide Trifecta boxes.
Environmental/Track Factors With several races featuring clear “Speed” favorites (Running Faith, Miss St. Claire) in sprint distances, pay close attention to the track profile early. If the rail is dead or speed is not holding in Races 1 and 2, downgrade the “Singles” in Races 5 and 7 accordingly and look for closers like Echo Juliet or Hamlin to upgrade their chances.
Key Takeaways
- Single the 1 in Race 6: It is the only unanimous play; build everything around it.
- Respect the “Match Races”: In Races 2 and 4, do not try to beat the top two; box them and move on.
- Survive the Nightcap: Race 9 is wide open. Save budget from the singles in the middle to buy as much coverage as possible in the final leg.
