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Pick Pony takes pride in providing the most accurate expert picks available today. Pick Pony Expert Picks are carefully selected by our team of analysts based on analytics from our advanced Past Performance Sheets and Racing Forms. For potential longshot selections, check out Pick Pony’s AI Picks.
Race 1 – Claiming, 7f 110yds, Turf, $23,000 Purse
Win: 7-Malibu Smart (57% confidence)
Place: 2-Say I Do Sadie (43% confidence)
Show: 1-No Map Needed (29% confidence)
Alternative: 5-Romany Road (14% confidence)
Early speed expected from Malibu Smart and Romany Road. Say I Do Sadie profiles as a closer with room for improvement. No Map Needed represents reliable form returning from layoff. Watch for Maylen as potential surprise at extended odds if leaders fade late.
Race 2 – Maiden Special Weight, 6f, Dirt, $54,000 Purse
Win: 1-Cloud Number Nine (29% confidence)
Place: 5-Hay Evabody (29% confidence)
Show: 2-Sunshine Daydream (29% confidence)
Alternative: 3-Sister Lily (14% confidence)
Evenly matched maiden division with top three selections separated by modest margins. Hay Evabody brings proven experience while Cloud Number Nine showed progression at Churchill Downs. Sunshine Daydream capable of finishing with strong closing effort. Sister Lily poses closing threat from outside positions.
Race 3 – Claiming, 1m 1f 110yds, Turf, $28,000 Purse
Win: 5-Half Brother (57% confidence)
Place: 2-Liar’s Poker (29% confidence)
Show: 1-Tahoe Run (29% confidence)
Alternative: 4-Summer In Adriane (14% confidence)
Half Brother overwhelmingly favored based on recent third-place finish at Canterbury Park. Liar’s Poker showed placing ability at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Tahoe Run represents genuine danger if finding improvement at favorable odds. Summer In Adriane fresh off layup with form improvement possible. Extended distance favors pace-tracking runners.
Race 4 – Maiden Claiming, 6f, Dirt, $14,000 Purse
Win: 4-Surfin Bayou (43% confidence)
Place: 2-Cajun Dance (57% confidence)
Show: 5-Spiritual Duty (29% confidence)
Alternative: 3-Dayofthewarrior (14% confidence)
Maiden field with uncertain outcomes, though Surfin Bayou debuting for strong connections represents most reliable win candidate. Cajun Dance extremely popular in place position across multiple analysts. Spiritual Duty capable of improvement returning from 11-week layoff despite previous gap to winner. Debutants add uncertainty to forecast.
Race 5 – Allowance, 5f 110yds, Turf, $55,000 Purse
Win: 5-Bosun (43% confidence)
Place: 2-I’m Wide Awake (29% confidence)
Show: 4-Vesture (43% confidence)
Alternative: 1-Hit That Review (14% confidence)
Bosun carries three wins this campaign and excels at trip distance. I’m Wide Awake returning to non-metro class after lengthy layoff. Vesture capable finisher with two recent placings. Hit That Review profiles as closer capable of late rally. Expect honest tempo throughout with closing effort decisive.
Race 6 – Maiden Special Weight, 8f, Dirt, $54,000 Purse
Win: 1-Wherethehitsare (71% confidence)
Place: 7-Gary P (29% confidence)
Show: 4-Joey D (43% confidence)
Alternative: 3-Antiphon (29% confidence)
Wherethehitsare commands overwhelming support as win choice despite having missed as favorite in sole Fair Grounds appearance. Excellent draw should negate any previous bias issues. Gary P represents first-time entry for consideration. Joey D offers newcomer intrigue. Antiphon split opinion between analysts but profiles as alternative in exotic wagering. Extended distance favors runners with stamina indicators.
Race 7 – Allowance, 5f 110yds, Turf, $55,000 Purse
Win: 1-Mega Magic (29% confidence)
Place: 2-Kenmore West (29% confidence)
Show: 7-Pharoah’s Dynasty (29% confidence)
Alternative: 4-I Am Lowkey (14% confidence)
Top contenders evenly divided between Mega Magic and Kenmore West with both carrying solid credentials. Mega Magic returns from 10-week hiatus with fair showing at Churchill Downs. Kenmore West boasts multiple Fair Grounds victories with fresh form advantageous. Pharoah’s Dynasty quick-finishing type with closing capabilities. I Am Lowkey in strong form with two wins from seven attempts. Expect determined speed early.
Race 8 – Maiden Optional Claiming, 6f, Dirt, $30,000 Purse
Win: 3-Halo Music (29% confidence)
Place: 6-Kazoom (29% confidence)
Show: 1-Chasing Gray (29% confidence)
Alternative: 5-Athletic Like (14% confidence)
Three-way tie at win position reflects competitive nature of below-standard maiden field. Election Night ran midfield at Churchill Downs but shows signs of improvement. Halo Music brings established form relative to competition. French Knight represents seasoned threat among mostly inexperienced field. Kazoom as first-timer carries typical uncertainty. Chasing Gray debutant drawn favorably in ideal spot. Expect open contest with possible surprise contender.
Race 9 – Maiden Claiming, 6f, Dirt, $19,000 Purse
Win: 8-Voodoo Lady (57% confidence)
Place: 4-Ve Nina (29% confidence)
Show: 1-Love Getaway (29% confidence)
Alternative: 3-El Star (14% confidence)
Voodoo Lady dominates win position with solid backing across most analysts. Fresh off five-week layup with fourth-place finish as sole race experience. Ve Nina profiles as first-timer capable of surprise. Love Getaway debutant drawn ideally carries typical newcomer appeal. El Star first-time entry adds competitive uncertainty. Simple Spice lurking with fair claims if race unfolds slowly.
Recommended Exotic Wagering Strategies
Pick Pony analysts suggest the following opportunities based on consensus formation and analytical divergence:
Race 1 Exotics:
Consider exacta combinations with early-speed runners (Malibu Smart, Romany Road) over closers (Say I Do Sadie). Trifecta combinations favor runners showing turf form and proven stamina. Include Linda Faye as wild-card option if drawn favorably.
Race 2 Exotics:
Maiden profile contains overlapping form among top selections. Exacta and trifecta boxes with Cloud Number Nine, Hay Evabody, and Sunshine Daydream offer value. Sister Lily provides wild-card option at favorable odds. Consider reverse combinations.
Race 3 Exotics:
Half Brother appears heavily favored. Consider exacta combinations using Half Brother with secondary picks (Liar’s Poker, Summer In Adriane) rather than standard win betting. Trifecta formations with Tahoe Run as potential shock bring value pricing.
Race 4 Exotics:
Maiden Claiming uncertainty suggests exacta boxes rather than straight wagering. Surfin Bayou across position with Cajun Dance as primary supporting choice shows promise. Include Go Get Trae as alternative win possibility if morning line odds prove favorable.
Race 5 Exotics:
Bosun-Vesture exacta represents consensus foundation. Trifecta with I’m Wide Awake as show option or Hit That Review as late-running longshot adds coverage. Play The Trumpet offers potential surprise option if race develops with honest tempo.
Race 6 Exotics:
Wherethehitsare presents steep win odds probability. Exacta and trifecta wagering using Wherethehitsare across multiple positions could improve returns. Antiphon, Gary P, and Joey D provide diverse alternative win options. Structure trifectas with multiple finishing combinations.
Race 7 Exotics:
Divided opinion at top creates natural exacta opportunities. Mega Magic and Kenmore West wagers in both directions provide coverage. Pharoah’s Dynasty as show option or I Am Lowkey as surprise finisher warrants consideration in extended exotic formations.
Race 8 Exotics:
Competitive field with no clear consensus winner creates opportunity for exacta and trifecta surprise valuations. Avoid heavy favorites. Consider exacta box with Halo Music, French Knight, and Election Night while adding Kazoom or Chasing Gray as potential shock finishers.
Race 9 Exotics:
Voodoo Lady represents strongest consensus of night. Exacta using Voodoo Lady as primary win with secondary finishers offers value over straight wagering. Trifecta coverage with Love Getaway, Ve Nina, and El Star addresses debutant unpredictability while maintaining Voodoo Lady as anchor.
