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Race 1 – Maiden Special Weight – 1 mile Dirt – Purse $54,000
Win: Remi (4) – 70% confidence
Place: Musical Band (3) – 70% confidence
Show: Top Notch Protocol (7) – 80% confidence
Alternative: Seize The Win (1) – 40% confidence
Race 1 shows a tight cluster among three main contenders, with analysts repeatedly keying Remi (4), Musical Band (3), and Top Notch Protocol (7) on top and underneath in exotics, implying a relatively formful outcome but with trip-dependent order of finish.
Race 2 – Allowance – about 6 furlongs Dirt – Purse $56,000
Win: Mister Banderas (5) – 90% confidence
Place: Wholelottadeal (1) – 45% confidence
Show: Hesper (6) – 60% confidence
Alternative: Starry Eyed (3) – 55% confidence
Race 2 is one of the strongest single-horse opinions on the card with Mister Banderas (5) virtually unanimous on top, while underneath positions are more fluid between Wholelottadeal (1), Hesper (6), and Starry Eyed (3), creating exacta and trifecta leverage despite a likely short-priced winner.
Race 3 – Allowance Optional Claiming – 1 mile 70 yards Dirt – Purse $58,000
Win: Canal Street (2) – 95% confidence
Place: Sweet Alexis (5) – 65% confidence
Show: Cool Lucky Lady (4) – 70% confidence
Alternative: Pickin Ana Grinnin (6) – 35% confidence
Race 3 is a classic “key favorite” situation with Canal Street (2) sweeping the win slot across sources, while Sweet Alexis (5) and Cool Lucky Lady (4) dominate the underneath slots, suggesting many analysts will build vertical exotics around a single win key plus a tight supporting cast.
Race 4 – Maiden Special Weight – 1 mile 110 yards Turf – Purse $54,000
Win: Mount Vernon (5) – 70% confidence
Place: Citatus (2) – 80% confidence
Show: Jarrett (8) – 55% confidence
Alternative: Maximum Effort (10) – 35% confidence
In Race 4 analysts largely converge on Mount Vernon (5) and Citatus (2) as the two most likely winners, with Jarrett (8) and a few others providing depth, indicating a race where debut and lightly raced upside are heavily respected and pace or turf handling could create mild upset possibilities within that top tier.
Race 5 – Maiden Optional Claiming – 1 mile 110 yards Dirt – Purse $54,000
Win: Flash Of Chaos (5) – 80% confidence
Place: Fake Smart (6) – 65% confidence
Show: Twenty Two Black (1) – 70% confidence
Alternative: Props (3) – 35% confidence
Race 5 offers a strong but not absolute lean to Flash Of Chaos (5) up top, with a notably consistent presence of Fake Smart (6) and Twenty Two Black (1) in the money slots, hinting at a race where the main uncertainty is the exact order among the three more than who actually hits the frame.
Race 6 – Allowance – 1 mile 110 yards Turf – Purse $58,000
Win: Exclusive Star (6) – 80% confidence
Place: Ontario (5) – 75% confidence
Show: Sy B (1) – 70% confidence
Alternative: Malibu Smart (3) – 35% confidence
Race 6 has a very tight consensus triangle around Exclusive Star (6), Ontario (5), and Sy B (1), suggesting a relatively predictable top tier but potentially chaotic outcome if any of the three encounter trip trouble given the field’s depth and turf-routing dynamics.
Race 7 – Maiden Special Weight – 1 mile 110 yards Dirt – Purse $54,000
Win: Abilene (5) – 55% confidence
Place: Love And Trust (2) – 60% confidence
Show: Lady Law (1) – 50% confidence
Alternative: Tap To Open (3) – 45% confidence
Race 7 is one of the more divided races, with analysts spreading opinions among Abilene (5), Love And Trust (2), Lady Law (1), and Tap To Open (3), indicating an event where pedigree, second-start improvement, and trip may trump raw figures and where prices could be more attractive.
Race 8 – Mardi Gras Stakes – about 5½ furlongs Turf – Purse $125,000
Win: Shining Star (6) – 70% confidence
Place: Lotsandlotsofcandy (7) – 80% confidence
Show: Big Trouble (1) – 85% confidence
Alternative: Civetta (5) – 40% confidence
Race 8 presents a high-class sprint with a clear top trio as analysts repeatedly prioritize Shining Star (6), Lotsandlotsofcandy (7), and Big Trouble (1), yet there is a subtle split between turf-proven Shining Star (6) and synthetic-dirt specialist Lotsandlotsofcandy (7) that could create value if surface preference decides the outcome.
Race 9 – Maiden Special Weight – 6 furlongs Dirt – Purse $54,000
Win: A Hint Of Scandel (9) – 65% confidence
Place: I Got The Hint (5) – 70% confidence
Show: My Touch (3) – 65% confidence
Alternative: Dirty Straight Up (8) – 60% confidence
Race 9 is a nuanced maiden with analysts respecting both proven consistency from A Hint Of Scandel (9) and I Got The Hint (5) and the debut upside of My Touch (3), suggesting exotics should emphasize coverage of all three while using Dirty Straight Up (8) as a live price horse to spice up deeper tickets.
Recommended Exotic Plays by Race
Race 1
Analysts would be inclined to structure Race 1 around a three-horse core of Remi (4), Musical Band (3), and Top Notch Protocol (7), using combinations like exactas 4–3, 3–4, and 4–7 with the third horse underneath in trifectas. Including Seize The Win (1) and My Boy J (2) on the bottom of trifectas and superfectas offers modest coverage against a minor upset without diluting the budget.
Race 2
Race 2 profiles as an exacta and trifecta race with Mister Banderas (5) as a strong single in the win slot while rotating Wholelottadeal (1), Hesper (6), and Starry Eyed (3) underneath, for example 5 over 1,6,3 in exactas and 5 over 1,6,3 over 1,6,3,4,7 in trifectas. Analysts would likely avoid spreading against Mister Banderas (5) in multi-race sequences, instead using him as an anchor in Pick 3s and Pick 4s.
Race 3
In Race 3, Canal Street (2) is a classic trifecta key, with suggested tickets like 2 over 5,4 over 5,4,6,1 and superfectas 2 over 5,4 over 5,4,6 over 5,4,6,1,3,7. Analysts may also recommend a saver exacta 4–2 or 5–2 to guard against Cool Lucky Lady (4) or Sweet Alexis (5) turning the tables if Canal Street (2) encounters traffic.
Race 4
Race 4 offers fertile ground for exacta and trifecta wheels built around the Mount Vernon (5) and Citatus (2) axis, such as 5,2 over 5,2,8,10 over 5,2,8,10,7. Analysts may also include Jarrett (8) and Maximum Effort (10) as key underneath horses in superfecta structures, while lightly using longshots like Li Grand Zombi (6) only on the bottom rung for price enhancement.
Race 5
For Race 5, analysts would frame Flash Of Chaos (5) as a central key in exactas and trifectas, employing constructions like 5 over 6,1,3 over 6,1,3,4 and 5,6 over 5,6,1 over 5,6,1,3,4 in superfectas. Given recurring support for Twenty Two Black (1) and Fake Smart (6), multi-race tickets might lean on 5 and 1 as co-anchors while relegating Props (3) to underneath slots at a potentially fair price.
Race 6
Race 6 appears suited to tight trifecta and superfecta formulations using Exclusive Star (6), Ontario (5), and Sy B (1) in all slots, for example 6 over 5,1 over 5,1,3,9,11 and 6,5 over 6,5,1 over 6,5,1,3,9,11. Analysts may also suggest modest coverage with Malibu Smart (3) and Channel Check (9) on the back end of deeper exotics to capture a more chaotic turf outcome without excessive cost.
Race 7
Race 7’s divided opinions encourage broader exotic spreading, with analysts likely to recommend trifectas such as 5,2,1 over 5,2,1,3,4 over 5,2,1,3,4,6 and superfectas that rotate Abilene (5), Love And Trust (2), Lady Law (1), and Tap To Open (3) in all key positions. Because of the competitive nature of the field, multi-race wagers through this leg would probably require at least three horses, accepting lower leverage in exchange for survival.
Race 8
In the Mardi Gras Stakes, analysts would favor exacta boxes and trifectas built around Shining Star (6), Lotsandlotsofcandy (7), and Big Trouble (1), using patterns like 6,7 over 6,7,1 over 6,7,1,5 and 6 single on top in some tickets for added leverage. A subset of strategies might incorporate Civetta (5) as a key superfecta inclusion given her repeated mention as a value challenger, especially if the turf plays fairly to mid-pack closers.
Race 9
Race 9 supports structured but inclusive exotics, with analysts inclined to play A Hint Of Scandel (9), I Got The Hint (5), and My Touch (3) as a primary trio in exactas and trifectas, for instance 9,5,3 over 9,5,3,8 over 9,5,3,8,2,1. Superfecta tickets can use Dirty Straight Up (8) plus price horses like Von Erich (2) and A Lotta Shance (4) in the fourth position to take advantage of the race’s blend of experience and debut potential.
Value Play Observations
Race 1’s consensus centers heavily on Remi (4), Musical Band (3), and Top Notch Protocol (7), so any board scenario where Seize The Win (1) or My Boy J (2) floats well above double-digit odds would represent an overlay relative to modest but non-zero analyst support. Probability assessments implied by the collective picks suggest Remi (4) and Musical Band (3) are fair only at relatively short prices, making them underlays if they crush the market into odds-on territory.
In Race 2, Mister Banderas (5) is a likely underlay given overwhelming analyst confidence and a short morning line, yet Wholelottadeal (1) and Starry Eyed (3) project as potential overlays if they drift beyond mid-single-digit odds because their selection frequency implies true winning chances closer to the mid-teens percentage range. Hesper (6) also sits on the cusp between fair and overlay; if the price extends beyond the morning line, analysts’ frequent placing of this runner underneath suggests mild positive expectation.
Race 3’s extreme consensus on Canal Street (2) sets the stage for underlay risk if the tote collapses below even-money, while Cool Lucky Lady (4) and Sweet Alexis (5) profile as value if they hold near or above their morning lines, since analyst support implies a more competitive true probability distribution among the top three. Secondary mentions of Pickin Ana Grinnin (6) and Pasila (1) indicate they could be longshot overlays in vertical exotics if left largely ignored on the board.
Race 4’s mix of Mount Vernon (5), Citatus (2), and Jarrett (8) as key players suggests that any one of them going off much higher than its morning line creates an overlay, particularly if skepticism about first-time turf or debut status suppresses public support. Conversely, Maximum Effort (10) might slide into underlay territory if heavy attention to prior higher-grade placing drives the price down despite moderate analyst backing.
Race 5 appears to offer potential overlay status for Twenty Two Black (1) if bettors over-focus on Flash Of Chaos (5) and Fake Smart (6), since analyst frequency hints at a truer probability for Twenty Two Black (1) that is closer to co-third choice than a distant outsider. Props (3) and Street Party (4) could offer exotics value if they remain mid-priced yet continue to appear in “watch” and underneath roles across multiple analysts.
In Race 6, Exclusive Star (6), Ontario (5), and Sy B (1) collectively command so much attention that any drift on Sy B (1) in particular would stand out as an overlay, given a nearly equal share of place and show mentions compared to the other two. Turf-capable runners like Malibu Smart (3) and Channel Check (9) may be overlooked by the market relative to their consistent, if secondary, representation in projections, thereby offering hidden value in multi-horse exotic structures.
Race 7’s fragmented opinions likely yield overlays on whichever of Abilene (5), Love And Trust (2), Lady Law (1), or Tap To Open (3) drifts farthest above its morning line, since the consensus does not strongly separate them in true probability terms. Deep prices on newcomers like Tiffany Cross (6) or Countess (8) would only marginally affect value projections, as analysts have assigned them more peripheral chances.
In Race 8, Shining Star (6) and Lotsandlotsofcandy (7) both figure strongly, but the turf experience edge may cause analysts to view Shining Star (6) as slightly under-bet relative to Lotsandlotsofcandy (7) if the market focuses on the latter’s win streak without adjusting for surface. Big Trouble (1) and Civetta (5) carry enough recurring mentions that odds in the high single digits or more would likely represent overlays versus inferred probabilities.
Race 9’s intertwined opinions on A Hint Of Scandel (9), I Got The Hint (5), and My Touch (3) indicate that any one of the trio going off significantly above its morning line could be an overlay, especially given strong work-based upside for My Touch (3) and consistent placing for the other two. Dirty Straight Up (8) appears as a recurring underneath horse; if left near double-digit odds, analysts would view this as a live price for inclusion rather than a toss.
Overall Wagering Strategy
Strongest Consensus Races on the card are Race 2 and Race 3, where Mister Banderas (5) and Canal Street (2) respectively command overwhelming analyst support and appear in nearly every projected win slot. These runners function as classic “free squares” in multi-race sequences and as logical keys in vertical exotics, with the main strategic concern being underlay risk that can be mitigated by pressing exotics rather than betting large win wagers at very short prices.
Split-Opinion Races include Race 7 and, to a lesser extent, Race 4 and Race 9, where multiple horses hold viable win shares and analyst support is spread among Abilene (5), Love And Trust (2), Lady Law (1), Tap To Open (3), and the main trio in Race 9. These events should be approached with broader coverage and smaller denomination tickets, exploiting the higher likelihood of mid-priced winners and rejecting the temptation to over-commit to any single narrative when projections do not coalesce.
From a multi-race sequence perspective, the clustering of strong consensus in Races 2, 3, 5, 6, and 8 sets up attractive Pick 3 and Pick 4 opportunities that string together several races where analysts agree on one or two primary contenders. Bettors can build aggressive sequences by singling Mister Banderas (5) and Canal Street (2) while using one or two-deep coverage in races like 5 and 6, thereby leveraging strong opinions to chase carryovers or higher effective payouts without excessive ticket cost.
Exotic Value Opportunities are most pronounced in Race 1, Race 4, Race 7, and Race 9, where form lines and lightly raced profiles introduce greater uncertainty and where analyst variance suggests pricing inefficiencies in the mid-odds range. Superfecta wheels that anchor one or two logical horses in the top three slots while fanning out to four or five runners for the fourth position (especially longshots that analysts still mention) can capture outsized returns when one non-obvious horse sneaks into the frame.
Environmental and track factors, based on the projected conditions, point to a fair 59°F day with no extreme weather noted and a standard dirt and turf configuration, implying that pace dynamics and trip will be more decisive than off-track biases. Turf routes and sprints may reward tactical speed and efficient ground loss management, something analysts implicitly recognize by favoring proven turf performers like Shining Star (6) and well-bred debut types in Race 4.
Key Takeaways for experienced bettors are that first, the card offers several strong single candidates (notably Mister Banderas (5) and Canal Street (2)) that can be leaned on heavily in multi-race strategies. Second, races with divided analyst opinion such as Race 7 should be treated as spread legs where hitting a modest upset can dramatically improve sequence value. Third, vertical exotics should focus on leveraging consensus horses as keys while consciously searching for overlays among the repeatedly mentioned but less heralded runners, particularly in late races where public fatigue sometimes leads to mispriced odds.
