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Race 1 Claiming 6 F Dirt Purse: $14,000
Win: Princess Celine (5) – 60% confidence
Place: Spirit To Inspire (4) – 40% confidence
Show: Little Bit O Storm (3) – 40% confidence
Alternative: Great Fortune (6) – 20% confidence
Analysts show strong support for Princess Celine (5) coming off a sharp maiden score. While Spirit To Inspire (4) has supporters, most analysts view Princess Celine (5) as the primary class of this field. Little Bit O Storm (3) is consistently noted as a reliable underneath option for vertical wagers.
Race 2 Maiden Claiming 6 F Dirt Purse: $17,000
Win: Deceitful Banker (5) – 50% confidence
Place: Funny Bunny (2) – 33% confidence
Show: Mya Papaya (1) – 33% confidence
Alternative: Veronicaforthewin (4) – 33% confidence
Opinion is highly fragmented in this maiden claimer. An analyst suggests Deceitful Banker (5) is the one to beat dropping in class, but Mya Papaya (1) and Funny Bunny (2) both receive top billing from separate sources, suggesting a spread-friendly race for multi-race sequences.
Race 3 Maiden Special Weight 5 F Turf Purse: $54,000
Win: Vitruvius (8) – 80% confidence
Place: Jus Surprise Me (5) – 40% confidence
Show: My Boy J (2) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Sassi Royal (1) – 20% confidence
One of the strongest consensus plays on the card is Vitruvius (8). Nearly every analyst lists this horse in the top spot, expecting a rebound performance. Jus Surprise Me (5) is the primary challenger identified by analysts to fill the exacta.
Race 4 Claiming 1 1/16 M Dirt Purse: $28,000
Win: Glen Airy (5) – 80% confidence
Place: Eye Dee Kay (1) – 60% confidence
Show: Curahee (6) – 40% confidence
Alternative: Flamingproposition (2) – 20% confidence
Analysts are largely unified on Glen Airy (5) after a narrow defeat last time out. Eye Dee Kay (1) is viewed as a specialist at this track and is the consensus pick to complete the exacta, while Curahee (6) is noted as a strong pace factor.
Race 5 Claiming 1 1/16 M Turf Purse: $23,000
Win: Western Run (4) – 40% confidence
Place: Battle Drum (3) – 40% confidence
Show: Maki Monarchy (7) – 40% confidence
Alternative: Il Cavallino (6) – 20% confidence
This turf route presents a three-way split among analysts. Western Run (4) and Battle Drum (3) are often paired together by analysts as the most likely win candidates, with Maki Monarchy (7) frequently mentioned as a horse that was unlucky in previous starts.
Race 6 Allowance Optional Claiming 1 M 70 Y Dirt Purse: $57,000
Win: Benoit (4) – 50% confidence
Place: Highland Creek (3) – 50% confidence
Show: Cosmic Train (1) – 33% confidence
Alternative: Macho Beanie (5) – 20% confidence
Analysts are divided between Benoit (4) dropping in class and Highland Creek (3), who is in consistent form. An analyst notes that Cosmic Train (1) should run fitter in this spot, making the top of the ticket competitive.
Race 7 Allowance Optional Claiming 5 1/2 F Turf Purse: $56,000
Win: Hey Bertie (3) – 33% confidence
Place: Epic Style (5) – 33% confidence
Show: She’s A Tempest (1) – 33% confidence
Alternative: Lovely Emma (7) – 16% confidence
This is the widest spread on the card. Analysts are selecting four different horses for the win spot. Hey Bertie (3) is respected for past track performance, but Lovely Emma (7) and Epic Style (5) arrive with recent winning momentum that makes analysts hesitant to name a clear favorite.
Race 8 Claiming 1 M 70 Y Dirt Purse: $22,000
Win: Now And Later (2) – 66% confidence
Place: Bernin Tune (7) – 50% confidence
Show: Space (6) – 33% confidence
Alternative: American Blaze (5) – 33% confidence
Now And Later (2) is the preferred choice for analysts in the nightcap, though Bernin Tune (7) has significant backing as a high-value alternative moving back to the dirt surface. Space (6) is consistently mentioned as a must-use in exotic structures.
Recommended Exotic Plays by Race
Race 1 Analysts suggest a straight Exacta 5-4 or a Trifecta Key 5 over 3, 4, 6. Princess Celine (5) is viewed as a standout, so vertical plays should focus on capturing the battle for second between Spirit To Inspire (4) and Little Bit O Storm (3).
Race 2 Analysts recommend a wide Exacta Box 1, 2, 5. Due to the lack of consensus, a Superfecta Box with 1, 2, 4, 5 is also suggested to catch a potential price in a wide-open field.
Race 3 This race is viewed as a prime opportunity for a cold Exacta 8-5 or a Trifecta 8 over 5 over ALL. Analysts suggest using Vitruvius (8) as a single in horizontal wagers like the Pick 3 or Pick 4.
Race 4 Analysts favor an Exacta Box 1-5 or an Exacta Key 5 over 1, 6. If playing Trifectas, analysts suggest 5 over 1, 6 over 1, 2, 6.
Race 5 Analysts suggest an Exacta Box 3, 4, 7. Because Maki Monarchy (7) has shown winning ability before trouble, analysts recommend including this horse on the win line in any turf multi-race bets.
Race 6 Analysts recommend an Exacta Box 3-4 and a Trifecta 3, 4 over 1, 3, 4 over 1, 2, 3, 4. This ensures coverage of the two primary contenders while accounting for a potential jump from Cosmic Train (1).
Race 7 Analysts warn this is a “spread” race. They suggest a 3, 5, 7, 11 box for Exactas and Trifectas. In multi-race wagers, analysts recommend using at least three horses to survive this leg.
Race 8 Analysts suggest an Exacta 2-7 and 2-6. A Trifecta 2 over 6, 7 over 1, 5, 6, 7 is recommended to leverage the consensus strength of Now And Later (2) while covering the competitive minor placings.
Value Play Observations
In Race 1, Little Bit O Storm (3) is identified as an underlaid horse relative to the heavy interest in Princess Celine (5). While Princess Celine (5) is the likely winner, analysts see 3/1 as a fair price for the place spot.
Race 2 presents Deceitful Banker (5) at 9/5, which analysts feel is an overlay if the horse replicates its potential. Conversely, Funny Bunny (2) at 2/1 is viewed as an underlay given the lack of consistent form.
Race 3 shows Vitruvius (8) as a massive favorite at 7/5. Analysts believe this is a fair price, but note that Jus Surprise Me (5) at 4/1 represents value if the favorite fails to handle the turf sprint.
Race 5 features Maki Monarchy (7) at 3/1. Analysts suggest this is the best value on the card as the horse has crossed the wire first recently only to be disqualified, suggesting a higher win probability than the current odds imply.
In Race 7, Lovely Emma (7) at 9/2 is highlighted by analysts as a potential overlay. Given the fragmented opinion in this race, a 9/2 price on a recent winner represents significant value compared to shorter-priced contenders who have been away from the track.
Overall Wagering Strategy
The racing card at Fair Grounds on February 6, 2026, presents a clear distinction between high-confidence anchors and wide-open tactical battles. Analysts have reached a strong consensus in Race 3 and Race 4, where Vitruvius (8) and Glen Airy (5) respectively command 80 percent confidence. These two races serve as the logical foundation for any multi-race wagering strategies, such as Pick 3 or Pick 4 sequences. Bettors looking to minimize costs should consider these horses as potential singles, as the analyst community is largely unified on their superiority over their respective fields.
In contrast, the middle and late stages of the card feature significant analytical tension. Race 5 and Race 7 are identified as split-opinion races where no single horse holds more than 40 percent confidence. In Race 5, the turf route creates a three-horse deadlock between Western Run (4), Battle Drum (3), and Maki Monarchy (7). Race 7 is even more volatile, with analysts spreading selections across four different contenders. These races are the primary sources of potential carryover value and high-priced exotic payouts. Analysts suggest using a “spread” approach here, utilizing multiple horses in horizontal sequences and considering box structures for vertical bets to capture the upset potential.
Environmental factors remain standard with a fast dirt track and firm turf expected. This favors tactical speed in the dirt sprints, particularly in Race 1 and Race 2. Analysts note that while the favorites in these early races are strong, the surface consistency at Fair Grounds often rewards horses that can secure an early position near the rail. In the turf events, specifically Race 5 and Race 7, the ability to navigate traffic in full fields will be paramount, which explains the analytical preference for experienced turf runners like Hey Bertie (3) and Western Run (4).
The most actionable insights for today prioritize the “bridge” between the high-confidence early-to-mid-card favorites and the volatile late-card turf sprints. Bettors should focus on leveraging the 80 percent confidence in Race 4 to build into the high-variance Race 5. Additionally, the nightcap in Race 8 offers a solid consensus on Now And Later (2), providing a reliable bookend for late Pick 4 or Pick 5 tickets. Prioritize aggressive vertical plays in the high-confidence races while maintaining broad coverage in the turf allowance races to maximize the chances of a profitable day.
