Pick Pony takes pride in providing the most accurate expert picks available today. Pick Pony Expert Picks are carefully selected by our team of analysts based on analytics from our advanced Past Performance Sheets and Racing Forms. For potential longshot selections, check out Pick Pony's AI Picks.
Note: Sometimes, a pick may appear twice; in such cases, we expect the horse to finish in one of the two predicted positions.
Race 1 – Maiden Special Weight, 8F Dirt, $32,600 WIN
Win: 2. Hey Pal – 80%🥇
Place: 5. Almez – 60%
Show: 1. By Mink Standards – 60%
Alternative: 8. Reign It In – 30%🥉
This maiden special weight features juveniles with limited experience competing at one mile on the main track. Hey Pal receives overwhelming support after stepping down from stakes company and draws strong backing from eight different handicapping sources. The class relief should benefit this runner who has faced tougher competition. Almez has been knocking on the door with consecutive placings at Finger Lakes and the distance stretch to one mile appears suitable based on pedigree. By Mink Standards showed promise in debut and the rail post provides tactical advantages. Cold temperature of 36 degrees may favor horses with tactical speed who can avoid wide trips.
Race 2 – Maiden Special Weight, 8F Dirt, $32,600 BOXED TRIFECTA
Win: 2. Sliceaway – 70%
Place: 1. Back To Khali – 60%🥈
Show: 3. Liljestrom – 60%🥇
Alternative: 6. Espresso Tini – 40%🥉
Sliceaway draws strong consensus support after a promising third-place effort in her debut. The Nicholas Zito trainee typically brings fillies along gradually and second-time starters from this barn show improvement. Back To Khali has raced twice at Finger Lakes and the route distance should benefit as she gains experience. Liljestrom makes her career debut for Miguel Clement and receives attention from multiple handicappers despite no racing history. First-time starters at Finger Lakes can be competitive, particularly those training well. Espresso Tini ships in from Belmont and the class drop could prove beneficial.
Race 3 – Claiming, 8F Dirt, $11,000 WIN
Win: 1. Dorothys Happiness – 90%🥇
Place: 7. Flash Kiss – 50%
Show: 3. In A Minute – 40%
Alternative: 2. Don't Poke The Cat – 20%🥈
Dorothys Happiness receives near-unanimous support from handicappers as the overwhelming favorite. This mare has won three times at Finger Lakes and demonstrates strong course-and-distance form. Staying at the same claiming level after being claimed suggests connections believe she fits well here. Flash Kiss has been consistent with four placings from seven starts this prep but was soundly beaten last time. Forgiveness may be warranted for that performance. In A Minute disappointed as the favorite last start but should be fitter now. The claiming ranks at this level typically produce competitive racing with small margins separating contenders.
Race 4 – Claiming, 8F 66Y Dirt, $14,000BOXED TRIFECTA
Win: 2. Turnupthemusic – 50%🥈
Place: 4. Rumint – 70%🥇
Show: 1. Cabernet – 40%🥉
Alternative: 5. Silent Sandy – 30%
This fillies and mares claiming event lacks a clear consensus favorite with handicappers divided among the top four. Turnupthemusic has two wins from six attempts this campaign and placed second last start at Finger Lakes, finishing just three lengths behind. Rumint drops to the bottom claiming level which should make her competitive, and she placed when fresh earlier this year. Cabernet steps down significantly in class and that relief could prove decisive. Silent Sandy seeks three consecutive victories and has winning momentum, though this represents her toughest test. The extended distance of 8.5 furlongs may favor horses with proven stamina.
Race 5 – Maiden Special Weight, 6F Dirt, $32,600 BOXED TRIFECTA
Win: 7. Princess Azara – 60%
Place: 3. Scarlett Queen – 50%🥈
Show: 1. Galileans Girl – 40%🥇
Alternative: 9. Purple Divine – 20%🥉
Princess Azara has placed in both career starts and appears ready to break through for Nicholas Zito. The trainer excels with juvenile fillies making their third career start. Scarlett Queen also has two placings from two starts and finished third last time at Finger Lakes. The sprint distance of six furlongs suits early speed types. Galileans Girl drew interest from three handicappers despite limited public information suggesting she may be training sharply. Purple Divine makes her debut for Chris Englehart and first-time starters always warrant respect. The maiden ranks for two-year-old fillies often produce tight finishes with minimal separation.
Race 6 – Claiming, 8F 110Y Dirt, $14,000
Win: 5. Nilruc – 50%🥈
Place: 2. Majestic Frontier – 50%
Show: 4. America's Justice – 50%
Alternative: 8. Utamaro – 40%
Nilruc seeks four consecutive victories after a dominant winning streak at Finger Lakes. The track specialist has won three times at this venue and demonstrates strong course-and-distance form. Majestic Frontier receives significant support and plunges in claiming value which often signals connections have found a soft spot. America's Justice goes back to her preferred distance and stays at the bottom claiming level. The mare has won five times at Finger Lakes previously. Utamaro finished just half a length behind the winner last start and warrants respect. This competitive claiming event features minimal separation with four horses receiving nearly equal support.
Race 7 – Claiming, 8F 110Y Dirt, $14,000 WIN
Win: 9. Finalist – 60%🥇
Place: 7. Golden Reign – 30%
Show: 11. Datesfreedom – 30%
Alternative: 6. Centavo – 30%🥉
Finalist emerges as the consensus selection after narrowly missing as the favorite last start at Finger Lakes. The consistent performer has not missed the board since dropping to the five-thousand claiming level. Golden Reign drops significantly in value which multiple handicappers view as a positive indicator. Datesfreedom has won eight times at Finger Lakes and captured a race at this track three starts back. The experience and familiarity with the surface provide advantages. Mr. Einstein draws some attention with winning form at this level. The claiming conditions create wide-open competition with numerous legitimate contenders making exotic wagers particularly appealing.
Race 8 – Claiming, 6F Dirt, $13,800 WIN
Win: 8. Hypnotic Flair – 80%🥇
Place: 2. Je T'adore – 30%
Show: 3. Padrino's Gold – 50%
Alternative: 9. Cozee Magic – 30%
Hypnotic Flair receives overwhelming support after winning impressively last start at Finger Lakes. The drop in class preceded that victory and remaining at this level suggests connections believe she fits well. Eight different handicappers select this mare demonstrating rare consensus. Je T'adore has strong course-and-distance credentials winning twice at Finger Lakes over six furlongs. The inside post provides tactical advantages. Padrino's Gold demonstrates versatility with two wins from eleven attempts and drops back to the sprint distance where she has shown competitiveness. Red Butterfly finished just a neck behind the winner last start and enters in good current form.
Exotic Wagers and Value Plays
Race 1 Exacta Box: Key 2-Hey Pal with 5-Almez, 1-By Mink Standards, and 8-Reign It In. The overwhelming consensus on Hey Pal makes him the logical single but the place position shows strong support for multiple horses creating exacta value.
Race 3 Vertical Play: Use 1-Dorothys Happiness as a single in early Pick 3 and Pick 4 sequences. The 90% consensus support makes this the strongest selection across all eight races.
Race 4 Trifecta: Box the top four (2-Turnupthemusic, 4-Rumint, 1-Cabernet, 5-Silent Sandy) as handicappers show no clear consensus. The divided opinion suggests a competitive race ideal for trifecta value.
Race 6 Superfecta: Include 5-Nilruc, 2-Majestic Frontier, 4-America's Justice, and 8-Utamaro as the four horses receive nearly equal support at 40-50% each. The tight grouping indicates potential for premium superfecta payouts.
Race 7 Pick 3: Start with a single on 8-Hypnotic Flair in Race 8 (80% consensus) and work backward spreading in Races 6 and 7 where opinions are more divided. This structure provides coverage while anchoring on the day's strongest selection.
Late Pick 4 (Races 5-8): Consider using Princess Azara and Scarlett Queen in Race 5, spreading four horses in Race 6, using three horses in Race 7, and keying Hypnotic Flair in Race 8. The strong closer combined with strategic spreading in competitive middle legs offers value potential.
Best Single-Race Value: Race 4 appears most contentious with handicappers split among four horses at similar percentages. A small exacta box focusing on Rumint (highest place percentage at 70%) with Turnupthemusic and Cabernet offers value at likely generous odds.
