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Race 1 – Claiming, 5F, Dirt
Win: G Speedy (2) – 50% confidence
Place: Beauty Bolt (3) – 70% confidence🥇
Show: Saint Cloud (10) – 50% confidence
Alternative: Lamcaro (9) – 60% confidence
Pick Pony analysts view G Speedy as a solid foundation for vertical and horizontal coverage, with Beauty Bolt as the consensus place finisher. The pace dynamics should see a competitive early battle followed by Beauty Bolt’s consistency providing security.
Race 2 – Maiden Claiming, 1M, Turf
Win: Pass Failed (5) – 60% confidence
Place: Starship Aspen (3) – 50% confidence
Show: Amelia (6) – 50% confidence🥇
Alternative: Lilys Back (2) – 40% confidence🥈
The field appears competitive with three viable contenders for the exacta. Pass Failed represents solid value as a first-call win selection. Multiple angles exist for the superfecta, with Amelia and Lilys Back providing breadth across pick types.
Race 3 – Claiming, 7F, Dirt
Win: Sneak Preview (5) – 80% confidence🥈
Place: Tshiebwe (2) – 70% confidence🥇
Show: Endrick (4) – 70% confidence
Alternative: Shea D World (6) – 40% confidence
Sneak Preview emerges as a heavy consensus choice with outstanding recent form. The exacta of Sneak Preview and Tshiebwe carries strong support across the analyst community. Endrick completes the trifecta path, while Shea D World merits exotic consideration given experience in similar company.
Race 4 – Maiden Claiming, 5.5F, Dirt
Win: Depth Perception (2) – 70% confidence
Place: Evil Empire (6) – 60% confidence🥈
Show: Sniper Jack (7) – 50% confidence🥇
Alternative: Deuxieme Chance (5) – 40% confidence🥉
The race presents a three-way competitive battle for the top spot. Depth Perception leads the way with pick consensus, while Evil Empire and Sniper Jack offer tactical placement options. The field carries relative evenness suggesting varied exotic approaches for coverage.
Race 5 – Claiming, 1M, Turf
Win: Hammerstein (4) – 60% confidence🥇
Place: Irish Gent (7) – 60% confidence🥉
Show: Gene And Jude (3) – 70% confidence
Alternative: English Law (8) – 50% confidence
This race shows less consensus dominance than earlier contests, with the field offering balanced betting value. Hammerstein and Irish Gent both merit serious consideration, while Gene And Jude provides reliability in exacta and trifecta tickets. The turf contest features multiple capable veterans and fresh types with solid form cycles.
Race 6 – Starter Allowance, 5.5F, Dirt
Win: Travel Happy (3) – 80% confidence
Place: Royally Blue (7) – 60% confidence🥈
Show: Free To Roam (8) – 50% confidence🥉
Alternative: Lionza (4) – 50% confidence
Travel Happy commands consensus support with the strongest form profile. The place-show picture offers multiple viable combinations, suggesting vertical coverage with Travel Happy holding the top spot. Superfecta combinations can incorporate four or five runners given the competitive nature of the field.
Race 7 – Allowance Optional Claiming, 5F, Dirt
Win: Sol Hope (3) – 60% confidence
Place: Foggy Note (4) – 70% confidence🥉
Show: Love Actually (6) – 40% confidence
Alternative: City Minute (2) – 30% confidence🥈
Sol Hope and Foggy Note split analyst opinion at the top, presenting a split-ticket scenario. Foggy Note edges Sol Hope in total mention frequency, suggesting potential exacta value with a slight contrarian lean on Foggy Note. The field remains competitive with tactical speed options and late-running threats available for coverage.
Race 8 – Maiden Claiming, 1M, Turf
Win: Cairo Comedy (1) – 70% confidence🥇
Place: Hot Cocoa (2) – 70% confidence
Show: Affirming (3) – 60% confidence
Alternative: Estrella (9) – 40% confidence
Cairo Comedy and Hot Cocoa emerge with strong consensus, offering a reliable foundation for exacta and trifecta plays. Affirming rounds out the core ticket with Estrella providing superfecta value. The one-mile turf maiden shows reasonable consensus structure supporting pick continuity across bet types.
Recommended Exotic Plays by Race
Race 1
Win-Place-Show Parlay: Structure coverage around G Speedy and Beauty Bolt, as the consensus places both runners in top positions. A three-way vertical using G Speedy, Beauty Bolt, and Saint Cloud provides conservative coverage of the consensus finish.
Pick 3 (Races 1-3): The first two races present split opinions worth incorporating into three-race sequences. Starting Race 1 with G Speedy and Beauty Bolt over multiple combinations in Races 2 and 3 creates manageable ticket costs.
Race 2
Trifecta Value Play: The field lacks dominant single choice, creating opportunity for modest-priced tickets incorporating Pass Failed, Amelia, and Lilys Back in varied combinations. Starship Aspen merits inclusion given recent jockey connection and inside draw advantages.
Superfecta: Four-horse boxes including Pass Failed, Starship Aspen, Amelia, and Lilys Back capture the consensus while maintaining reasonable costs.
Race 3
Heavy Favorite Position: Sneak Preview sits atop the consensus with 80% confidence. Tightly constructed exactas using Sneak Preview with Tshiebwe or Endrick present optimal value if the race shapes favorably. Consider 2-3 leg exactas for cost efficiency.
Trifecta Key: Using Sneak Preview as a key horse in trifecta sequences limits ticket construction while capturing the consensus choice. Box Tshiebwe and Endrick for position flexibility.
Race 4
Win-Loss Play: The race presents competitive positioning without a standout, creating win-and-place-and-show strategies with Depth Perception supported across multiple positions. Exacta wheels using Depth Perception over multiple contenders merit consideration.
Pick Four Opportunity: Races 1-4 present varied consensus levels, suggesting Pick Four construction starting from Race 3 forward, where Sneak Preview provides stronger control at the top position.
Race 5
Each-Way Coverage: Analysts show split opinions between Hammerstein and Irish Gent for the win, suggesting each-way play on both runners for place and show value. Gene And Jude carries strong show confidence supporting trifecta combinations.
Spread Strategy: With consensus less dominant, three-horse trifecta keys incorporating varied finish orders capture the analytical breadth.
Race 6
Dominant Favorite: Travel Happy commands 80% consensus support, positioning strongly as vertical coverage play. Paired with Royally Blue in exacta plays, the combination presents minimal favoritism risk for standard selections.
Superfecta Values: Four-horse boxes including Travel Happy, Royally Blue, Free To Roam, and Lionza capture consensus while incorporating place and show depth.
Race 7
Split Support: Sol Hope and Foggy Note divide analyst opinion, suggesting exacta coverage of both combinations (Sol Hope over Foggy Note and vice versa) for balanced approach. This presents opportunity for contrarian exacta value if one receives modest odds.
Pick Six Positioning: Starting coverage from Race 4 or 5 forward, analysts can structure pick sequences through Race 8, capturing the competitive section while using Travel Happy as anchor in Race 6.
Race 8
Reliable Pairing: Cairo Comedy and Hot Cocoa both command 70% confidence, providing strong foundation for exacta construction. Trifecta combinations incorporating Affirming capture the consensus while maintaining ticket efficiency.
Late Pick Sequence: The race can anchor Pick Six sequences if constructed from earlier races, with Cairo Comedy presenting primary coverage path.
Value Play Observations
Race 1 Value
McMullen (4) carries 2-1 morning line odds but appears in multiple analysts’ tickets as a fourth-place alternative. When overlooked favorites run into traffic, this runner presents place value at underlaid odds against the consensus favorites.
Race 2 Value
Lilys Back (2) merits more consideration than consensus positioning suggests. Multiple placings and track record warrant each-way play at 6-1 odds, particularly as an exacta second with Pass Failed overlooked by some contrarians.
Race 3 Value
Shea D World (6) emerges as a fourth-place alternative across multiple picks, indicating potential superfecta bomb potential if early pace dynamics produce an upset scenario. At 6-1 morning line, the runner carries underdog appeal for exotic construction.
Race 4 Value
Deuxieme Chance (5) appears consistently as a third or fourth option for analysts despite limited recent action. The runner’s inexperience combined with trainer credentials and fresh approach presents potential value in place and show wagering at 5-1 odds.
Race 5 Value
English Law (8) enters the race at 6-1 odds following an extended layoff, yet multiple analysts include the runner across various positions. Coming back from time off at a mile on the turf with solid trainer connections, the runner presents value for each-way consideration.
Race 6 Value
Lionza (4) merits more respect than general audience recognition suggests, appearing consistently in the consensus. At 5-1 odds with tactical speed options, the runner offers place and show value, particularly in combination tickets with Travel Happy on top.
Race 7 Value
Love Actually (6) returns from a layoff with blinkers added, representing potential value at 9-2 odds if the pace setup accommodates a late rally. Multiple analysts include the runner in show and superfecta consideration, creating underlay conditions for place wagering.
Race 8 Value
Estrella (9) carries longshot odds yet maintains appearance across multiple analyst tickets in superfecta and fourth-place positions. At 5-1 morning line, the runner merits consideration in multi-leg exotics where modest odds adjustment creates value propositions.
