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Race 1 – Maiden Optional Claiming – 7.5F Turf – Purse $43,000 BOXED EXACTA
Win: Weseeulator (8) – 24% confidence🥈
Place: Zucchero (1) – 21% confidence🥇
Show: Skip Forward (11) – 18% confidence
Alternative: Gold Miner (2) – 13% confidence
Notes: Projected honest to fast pace favors tactical closers. Outside draws and trip management will be crucial, especially for Skip Forward and Weseeulator. Juvenile variability suggests spreading underneath in vertical wagers.
Race 2 – Maiden Claiming – 6F Dirt – Purse $26,500
Win: Hamdoun (8) – 36% confidence
Place: Kukuk (2) – 27% confidence
Show: Gigline (9) – 15% confidence🥉
Alternative: Bethel Road (3) – 11% confidence
Notes: Strong consensus that Hamdoun and Kukuk are best. Trip and early positioning will decide which of the two gets the ideal stalking lane. Value may lie in using Bethel Road heavily underneath if the favorite pair draw overwhelming board support.
Race 3 – Claiming – 5.5F Dirt – Purse $28,000 BOXED EXACTA
Win: New York New York (7) – 28% confidence🥈
Place: Lazio (6) – 23% confidence🥇
Show: Loud Applause (4) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Migratory (2) – 17% confidence
Notes: Highly pace-intense event with several wanting to be forward. Any meltdown scenario improves the chances of New York New York and Migratory from just off the lead. Speed-favoring bias would tilt toward Lazio and Loud Applause.
Race 4 – Allowance Optional Claiming – 1 1/16M Turf – Purse $43,000
Win: Ennis Town (1) – 44% confidence
Place: Win With Faith (6) – 24% confidence🥉
Show: Our Souper Hero (5) – 17% confidence🥇
Alternative: Landman Friday (2) – 10% confidence
Notes: Clear consensus that Ennis Town is the horse to beat. Pace projects honest but not suicidal, favoring ground-saving stalkers and mid-pack grinders. Inside trip execution will be the deciding factor for the favorite.
Race 5 – Starter Allowance – 1 1/16M Dirt – Purse $40,000
Win: Berlone (2) – 27% confidence🥈
Place: Dimanche Gras (4) – 21% confidence
Show: Two Beers by Ten (10) – 17% confidence🥉
Alternative: Rashid (1) – 14% confidence
Notes: Many plausible pace scenarios; the race may hinge on how aggressively the front-runners are ridden. If contested early, Berlone and Rashid become more dangerous late; if not, Dimanche Gras or Two Beers by Ten could control the race from the front.
Race 6 – Maiden Special Weight – 1M Dirt – Purse $70,000
Win: Vino Vici (6) – 41% confidence
Place: Diamond Knife (3) – 22% confidence🥈
Show: The Pulse (7) – 17% confidence🥉
Alternative: One Reward (2) – 12% confidence
Notes: One of the strongest chalk consensus spots on the card. Vino Vici’s consistent form and suitable pace scenario make this a likely key race for horizontal bettors. The main risk is a regression or unexpected pace meltdown involving the top trio.
Race 7 – Claiming – 1M 70Y Dirt – Purse $28,000
Win: Dime Papi (5) – 33% confidence
Place: Piquant (3) – 28% confidence
Show: Venezuelan Hope (6) – 19% confidence🥇
Alternative: Wrecking Ball (4) – 13% confidence
Notes: Another race likely shaped by a duel between the top two. If they avoid a protracted battle, the race stays chalky on top; if not, Venezuelan Hope and Wrecking Ball have ample opportunity to roll late at attractive prices.
Race 8 – Starter Optional Claiming – 5.5F Dirt – Purse $33,000
Win: High Limit Room (7) – 47% confidencePlace: Mr Narcissistic (4) – 22% confidence🥈
Show: Three Zero (5) – 17% confidence🥇
Alternative: Fast Fixer (1) – 11% confidence
Notes: A standout consensus favorite, with most analysts building tickets around High Limit Room. The primary question is whether the front-running duo of Mr Narcissistic and Three Zero soften each other enough for a decisive late run from the favorite.
Race 9 – Starter Optional Claiming (Fillies & Mares) – 1 1/16M Dirt – Purse $33,000
Win: Goodbetterbest (7) – 24% confidence
Place: Let’s Dance Again (2) – 22% confidence
Show: I Love Venezuela (4) – 17% confidence
Alternative: Show Off (6) – 15% confidence
Notes: The most wide-open race in the sequence. Small gaps in consensus confidence among the top four highlight uncertainty. Structuring tickets with multiple A and B horses is prudent, especially if the tote spreads money across the same group.
Race 10 – Claiming – 1M Turf – Purse $36,000
Win: Message Of Hope (9) – 34% confidence
Place: Cognoscenti (6) – 24% confidence
Show: Oasis Prince (1) – 21% confidence
Alternative: Royal Salute (2) – 11% confidence
Notes: Strong overlay potential for whichever of the top three drifts in the betting. Trip dynamics and turf flow will decide the finish more than raw ability. Late money patterns near post will offer clues about which of the main trio is most live.
Exotic Bets and Value Plays (Panel View of Pick Pony Analysts)
Multi-race sequences
Pick Pony analysts see Race 4 (Ennis Town), Race 6 (Vino Vici), and Race 8 (High Limit Room) as the strongest single or stand candidates in horizontal wagers. Using one or two of these as primary singles and spreading more broadly in Race 3 and Race 9 can balance risk and reward, especially in late daily doubles and pick-3 or pick-4 sequences.
Exactas
In more straightforward races such as Race 2 (Hamdoun–Kukuk) and Race 8 (High Limit Room–Mr Narcissistic/Three Zero), Pick Pony analysts recommend pressed exacta combinations centered on the top pair, while smaller saver tickets invert those two in case of an upset. In more competitive races such as Race 5 and Race 9, exacta boxes involving the top four consensus horses offer a way to capture the outcome without needing to perfectly rank the finish.
Trifectas and superfectas
Where clear separation exists between the top three and the remainder (for example Race 6 and Race 7), Pick Pony analysts favor trifectas constructed with the top three consensus horses as primary keys over a wider group of alternatives in the third and fourth slots. Where races are more chaotic (Race 1 and Race 9), the emphasis shifts to smaller, more efficient trifectas using a single or dual anchor at the top and several mid-price runners underneath.
Value-oriented straight bets
Pick Pony analysts flag Kukuk in Race 2, Lazio in Race 3, Dimanche Gras in Race 5, Venezuelan Hope in Race 7, and I Love Venezuela in Race 9 as attractive win or win-place candidates when prices exceed early forecast odds. These runners possess both a legitimate path to victory and enough analyst support to justify taking on the favorites in appropriate spots, especially when tote behavior signals under-bet status close to post time.
