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Race 1 – Maiden Special Weight – 8F – Turf
Win: Classic Move (1) – 45% confidence
Place: Tam Tam (6) – 18% confidence
Show: Candy Rockette (2) – 9% confidence
Alternative: Conquering Marin (12) – 9% confidence
Strong consensus has formed around the favorite here, backed by five separate handicappers to win. The secondary market is split between two other contenders, suggesting a potential Exacta box opportunity rather than a straight win bet. The alternative selection appears in several top-3 lists but rarely on top.
Race 2 – Claiming – 8F – Dirt
Win: Bless America (7) – 36% confidence
Place: Lou The Body (2) – 18% confidence
Show: Bold Advance (5) – 18% confidence
Alternative: Blue Slide Park (4) – 18% confidence
This is a highly contentious race with opinion nearly evenly split among the top four contenders. While one horse has a slight edge in win picks, the “Place” and “Show” slots are interchangeable across most expert cards. This volatility suggests the race is a prime candidate for upset value or spread-out multi-race tickets.
Race 3 – Maiden Claiming – 1100Y – Dirt
Win: No Bills Campaign (8) – 36% confidence
Place: Mully’s Moon (1) – 27% confidence
Show: Jaker (4) – 18% confidence
Alternative: Authentic Honour (2) – 18% confidence
Analysts favor the outside post runner here, though confidence is moderate. The disagreement largely centers on the second and third spots, where three different horses have received significant support. The consensus winner is the only one consistently appearing in the top slot across multiple distinct data providers.
Race 4 – Allowance – 8F – Turf
Win: Laigina (4) – 82% confidence
Place: Vita Mia (1) – 27% confidence
Show: Beware Of Ooh Lala (2) – 18% confidence
Alternative: Covered In Crystal (3) – 9% confidence
This is the strongest consensus play of the day. A vast majority of handicappers have singled out the favorite, making this a potential “single” for horizontal wagers. The race for second is clearer than in previous events, with the rail runner appearing as the most frequent exact-mate.
Race 5 – Claiming – 1540Y – Dirt
Win: Little Town Street (6) – 82% confidence
Place: Dakota’s Lil Auror (5) – 27% confidence
Show: Samaritan’s Joy (7) – 18% confidence
Alternative: Royalties Riches (2) – 18% confidence
Another dominant consensus emerges here, mirroring the previous race. The top selection is heavily favored, leaving the remaining field to fight for the minor awards. The lack of variance in the win slot suggests the morning line favorite is viewed as a standout, though exotic value may be found in determining the second and third finishers.
Race 6 – Maiden Special Weight – 1540Y – Dirt
Win: High Camp (10) – 64% confidence
Place: Growth Equity (8) – 36% confidence
Show: Unsearchable (5) – 18% confidence
Alternative: Bridgesong (11) – 9% confidence
A solid consensus has formed, but it is not unanimous. The primary selection has strong backing, but a significant minority of analysts have tipped the second choice to upset. This creates a classic “A vs B” scenario for bettors, where the race likely runs through one of these two key horses.
Race 7 – Allowance Optional Claiming – 1100Y – Turf
Win: Masseto (9) – 36% confidence
Place: Twisted Filigree (7) – 18% confidence
Show: Souper Quest (3) – 18% confidence
Alternative: Niagara Skyline (6) – 18% confidence
This race features a “soft” consensus. While one horse leads the win count, the field is deep with viable alternatives. Several analysts have looked elsewhere for value, and the spread of opinions for the minor placings indicates a wide-open affair suitable for coverage in Pick N sequences.
Race 8 – Maiden Special Weight – 8F 110Y – Dirt
Win: The Puma (3) – 45% confidence
Place: Easterly (6) – 36% confidence
Show: Mr. Miracle (1) – 18% confidence
Alternative: Chess Match (8) – 18% confidence
Analysts are largely focused on two runners here, with the top choice holding a slight edge over the second. The gap between these two and the rest of the field is noticeable in the data, suggesting a two-horse race on paper. Vertical wagers utilizing these two in the top slots appear to be the preferred strategy.
Race 9 – Claiming – 8F 110Y – Dirt
Win: Ninja Star (12) – 45% confidence
Place: Carentan (4) – 36% confidence
Show: American Speed (6) – 18% confidence
Alternative: Neural Network (3) – 9% confidence
Opinion is heavily weighted toward the outside runner, though a respectable contingent supports the second choice. The drop-off in support after the top two is steep, isolating this event as a likely battle between the consensus favorite and the primary challenger.
Race 10 – Ladies’ Turf Sprint Stakes – 1100Y – Turf
Win: Moon Spun (7) – 64% confidence
Place: Flamingo Way (1) – 27% confidence
Show: Without Cause (4) – 18% confidence
Alternative: Cart Girl Sam (8) – 9% confidence
A strong agreement exists on the winner, backed by over half the panel. The race for place is somewhat contested, but the winner’s position seems secure in the eyes of the experts. This looks like a race where the favorite is expected to perform well, anchoring many tickets.
Race 11 – Allowance Optional Claiming – 1320Y – Dirt
Win: Fast Town (3) – 64% confidence
Place: Nothingsubtle (2) – 27% confidence
Show: Mo Work (4) – 18% confidence
Alternative: Latch The Hatch (7) – 18% confidence
The data points to a convincing favorite here. With nearly two-thirds of the analysts selecting the top choice to win, this race offers stability in the late pick sequences. The remaining contenders are shuffling for position, but the winner is clearly defined by the group.
Race 12 – Allowance Optional Claiming – 1650Y – Turf
Win: Wine On Sunday (2) – 64% confidence
Place: Meilani (4) – 18% confidence
Show: Just a Minute (9) – 18% confidence
Alternative: Slippers (7) – 18% confidence
The card concludes with a relatively strong opinion on the winner. While there are dissenting voices, the majority aligns on the inside runner. The exotic slots are muddled, with no clear consensus on who fills out the trifecta, suggesting a “Key” strategy is most appropriate.
Recommended Exotic Plays by Race
Race 1
Exacta Box: Classic Move (1), Tam Tam (6), Candy Rockette (2) Analysis: The consensus significantly favors Classic Move and Tam Tam. Boxing them with the value play Candy Rockette covers the most likely outcomes while offering a hedge against a minor upset.
Race 4
Trifecta Key: Laigina (4) over Vita Mia (1), Beware Of Ooh Lala (2), and Covered In Crystal (3) Analysis: With Laigina commanding over 80% of the win confidence, this is an ideal spot to key the favorite in the first position. Spreading underneath captures the race for place/show, where opinions are more divided.
Race 5
Superfecta Wheel: Little Town Street (6) with Dakota’s Lil Auror (5), Samaritan’s Joy (7), Royalties Riches (2), and Boombox Betty (1) Analysis: Similar to Race 4, Little Town Street is a dominant favorite. A wheel structure allows bettors to capitalize on price horses filling out the bottom of the superfecta while relying on the heavy favorite to win.
Race 6
Exacta: High Camp (10) / Growth Equity (8) Box Analysis: The data indicates a two-horse race. Boxing High Camp and Growth Equity is the most efficient way to play the strong duality in the expert opinions, as they far outstrip the rest of the field in selection frequency.
Race 12
Pick 3: Wine On Sunday (2) / Fast Town (3) / Moon Spun (7) Analysis: This sequence links three strong consensus picks (Races 10, 11, 12). Using these three “singles” or primary keys creates a cost-effective ticket structure for the late multi-race wagers.
Value Play Observations
Race 1: Classic Move (1) represents an overlay if the morning line holds near 9-2, given the 45% win consensus. The public may undervalue this entry relative to the expert agreement.
Race 4: Laigina (4) is a “Fair Value” favorite. At 1-1 Morning Line and 82% analyst confidence, the low price is justified by the overwhelming data support. Don’t expect a bargain, but the probability of winning is high.
Race 9: Ninja Star (12) at 2-1 Morning Line matches the 45% analyst confidence well. This is a standard favorite play where the price accurately reflects the risk profile derived from the consensus.
Race 7: Masseto (9) is a potential underlay. With only 36% confidence and a soft consensus, a short price on this runner would be risky. The field is deep enough to look for higher-odds alternatives like Twisted Filigree (7).
Overall Wagering Strategy
Strongest Consensus Races
The data reveals three pillars for today’s card: Race 4 (Laigina), Race 5 (Little Town Street), and Race 10 (Moon Spun). In each of these events, a single horse commands over 60% of the expert win selections. These runners should be viewed as the foundational anchors for any multi-race wagers (Pick 4, Pick 5, Pick 6). The agreement among analysts suggests these horses have a significant class or form advantage over their respective fields.
Split-Opinion Races
Race 2 and Race 7 stand out as the most volatile events on the card. In Race 2, expert opinion is fractured almost evenly across four different horses. Similarly, Race 7 shows a “soft” consensus where the favorite is vulnerable. These races are the “spread” legs of the sequence; bettors should allocate more budget here to cover multiple runners, as the likelihood of a price horse winning is significantly higher than in the consensus-heavy races.
Multi-Race Sequences
A distinct pattern emerges in the late Pick 4 and Pick 5 sequences. Races 10, 11, and 12 all feature strong consensus favorites (Moon Spun, Fast Town, Wine On Sunday). This alignment creates a highly playable “Late Pick 3” or “Late Pick 4” structure. Bettors can aggressively single or “lean” heavily on these three races, allowing for deeper coverage in the more contentious Race 9 or the earlier legs of the sequence.
Exotic Value Opportunities
The greatest potential for exotic payouts lies in Race 5. While the winner (Little Town Street) is heavily favored, the analysts are widely disagreed on the minor placings. This scenario—a “standout” winner with a chaotic scramble for second and third—is perfect for Trifecta and Superfecta wheels. By keying the favorite on top and spreading deep in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th positions, bettors can capture high-odds horses hitting the board without needing to predict a massive upset for the win.
Environmental/Track Factors
The forecast calls for turf racing. Note that several consensus picks (Classic Move, Laigina, Moon Spun, Wine On Sunday) are turf runners. Any degradation in course condition or a move to the main track (off-the-turf) would drastically alter the validity of these specific consensus data points. Monitor scratches and changes closely.
Key Takeaways
- Anchor the Card: Build tickets around Laigina (R4) and Little Town Street (R5); they are the statistical standouts.
- Attack the Late Sequence: The final three races offer a rare alignment of strong opinions, providing a clear path to closing out the day profitably.
- Spread Early: Treat Race 2 and Race 7 with extreme caution; these are the designated “chaos” races where coverage is essential.
