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Race 1: Maiden Claiming, 5 Furlongs (Turf)
Win: Royal Retinue (1) – 50% confidence
Place: Viking Quest (11) – 50% confidence
Show: Max (5) – 67% confidence
Alternative: Oh Sheila (4) – 50% confidence
Race Notes: Opinions are split between Royal Retinue (1) and Viking Quest (11) for the win, with the former favored by those valuing the rail draw and the latter by form analysts. Max (5) is the universal “board hitter,” appearing in nearly every trifecta construction as a defensive key. Oh Sheila (4) is a consistent alternative for exotics.
Race 2: Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards (Dirt)
Win: Il Alchemysta (6) – 67% confidence
Place: Guys Trip (5) – 83% confidence
Show: Swinging Solo (10) – 50% confidence
Alternative: Bobby Bob (9) – 33% confidence
Race Notes: Il Alchemysta (6) is the dominant selection here, with analysts citing strong recent speed figures. Guys Trip (5) is a near-unanimous selection to hit the board, frequently paired directly with the top choice in exactas. Contrarian handicappers show interest in Swinging Solo (10), suggesting potential value if the favorite falters.
Race 3: Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs (Dirt)
Win: Epico (2) – 83% confidence
Place: Best Artist (8) – 67% confidence
Show: Value Inthe Clouds (7) – 50% confidence
Alternative: Four Guns (1) – 50% confidence
Race Notes: Epico (2) commands heavy respect across the board, with most analysts projecting a win or a strong second. Best Artist (8) is identified as the main danger, often flipping positions with Epico in boxes. Value Inthe Clouds (7) separates the top tier from the rest of the field in show projections.
Race 4: Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile (Dirt)
Win: Betty’s Pearl (7) – 67% confidence
Place: Joyful Justice (2) – 83% confidence
Show: Wiretapped (8) – 50% confidence
Alternative: Point Of Reference (4) – 33% confidence
Race Notes: This is a classic duel between Betty’s Pearl (7) and Joyful Justice (2). Analysts are nearly evenly split on the winner, but almost all include both in their top two, suggesting a race prime for cold exactas. Wiretapped (8) is the consensus “best of the rest” choice.
Race 5: Claiming, 1 Mile (Dirt)
Win: Beastly Speed (2) – 86% confidence
Place: I Don’t Get It (6) – 83% confidence
Show: Real Macho (5) – 71% confidence
Alternative: Dai Vernon (1) – 57% confidence
Race Notes: Beastly Speed (2) appears in the top three of nearly every expert’s card, making him the metric favorite. However, the win slot is contested by I Don’t Get It (6) and Real Macho (5), suggesting pace scenarios could dictate the outcome. Dai Vernon (1) is consistently viewed as the fourth wheel.
Race 6: Starter Optional Claiming, 1 Mile (Turf)
Win: Harrow (9) – 83% confidence
Place: Ice Chocolat (10) – 67% confidence
Show: St. Armands Key (6) – 67% confidence
Alternative: Quereme Pass (5) – 33% confidence
Race Notes: Harrow (9) has emerged as the clear consensus favorite. Ice Chocolat (10) is heavily favored to hit the board, often as the primary danger. The race becomes chaotic underneath these two, with St. Armands Key (6) receiving mixed support for the minor awards.
Race 7: Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile (Dirt)
Win: Mainstream (8) – 100% confidence
Place: Love’m Or Liam (5) – 71% confidence
Show: Freaky (3) – 43% confidence
Alternative: Sidearm (2) – 29% confidence
Race Notes: Mainstream (8) is the strongest consensus play on the card, appearing on every expert list, mostly in the top two spots. The race for second is wide open between Love’m Or Liam (5) and Freaky (3). Outlier win picks for other horses suggest high payouts if the favorite misses.
Race 8: Allowance Optional Claiming, 5 Furlongs (Turf)
Win: Shape Note (1) – 83% confidence
Place: Boat’s A Rockin (7) – 83% confidence
Show: Cyclonite (8) – 67% confidence
Alternative: Itza Boss (10) – 67% confidence
Race Notes: An incredibly competitive turf sprint. Shape Note (1) has a slight edge, but the field is deep. Boat’s A Rockin (7) and Cyclonite (8) are universally respected, making this a “spread” race for multi-race wagers. Opinions on the winner are split, indicating high volatility.
Race 9: Starter Optional Claiming, 7 Furlongs (Dirt)
Win: Sadie The Goat (5) – 86% confidence
Place: St. Olaf Rose (3) – 86% confidence
Show: Neom City (1) – 43% confidence
Alternative: Pop Rox (7) – 43% confidence
Race Notes: A strong two-horse race on paper between Sadie The Goat (5) and St. Olaf Rose (3). These two are linked in almost every forecast, often in that specific 5-3 order. Neom City (1) is the primary spoiler identified by contrarian handicappers.
Race 10: Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile (Turf)
Win: Credit History (9) – 83% confidence
Place: Boss Dylan (7) – 83% confidence
Show: Comprehensive (12) – 67% confidence
Alternative: Drop Shot (5) – 33% confidence
Race Notes: Credit History (9) garners the most support in the finale, but Boss Dylan (7) is right there on nearly every ticket. The wide draw for Comprehensive (12) complicates things, but the horse remains a top-three fixture.
Recommended Exotic Plays by Race
Race 1: Trifecta Box: 1, 5, 11. The top three selections here are consistent across nearly all expert cards.
Race 2: Exacta: 6 over 5. A very strong correlation exists between Il Alchemysta winning and Guys Trip finishing second.
Race 4: Exacta Box: 2, 7. This is a “two-horse race” scenario. Analysts are split on the winner but agree these are the top two.
Race 5: Superfecta Key: 2. Use Beastly Speed in the top two spots (Win/Place) keyed with 1, 5, and 6 underneath.
Race 7: Exacta Key: 8 over 2, 3, 5. Mainstream is the strongest consensus single on the card; play him to win over the scramble for second.
Race 9: Cold Exacta: 5-3. The data strongly points to Sadie The Goat beating St. Olaf Rose.
Value Play Observations
Race 3: Best Artist (8) offers value relative to consensus. While Epico is the favorite, Best Artist appears on just as many tickets in the Place spot and could drift up in odds.
Race 6: St. Armands Key (6) is a lively longshot. The consensus is heavy on Harrow, but St. Armands Key has enough support to suggest he is “live” for a piece of the trifecta at a better price.
Race 7: Freaky (3) is often listed as the third choice behind the heavy favorite Mainstream. If the favorite falters, Freaky is the horse likely to be overlooked by the public compared to Love’m Or Liam.
Race 8: Cyclonite (8) is a “sneaky” consensus pick. In a wide-open race, he appears on almost every card but rarely on top, meaning he could be a great key for 2nd/3rd place at good odds.
Overall Wagering Strategy
Strongest Consensus Races The clearest opportunities for “singles” in multi-race wagers appear in Race 7 with Mainstream (8) and Race 9 with Sadie The Goat (5). Both horses command over 80% confidence from the expert panel to finish in the top two, with Mainstream being the closest thing to a “lock” on the card. These races are excellent anchors for Pick 3 or Pick 4 tickets.
Split-Opinion Races Race 8 (Turf Sprint) and Race 1 (Turf Sprint) are the most volatile events on the card. Analysts are deeply divided, with win picks scattered across four or five different horses. In these races, the “All” button or a wide spread (using 3-4 horses) is recommended. Do not try to get clever with a single here; the variance is too high.
Multi-Race Sequences A promising Pick 3 sequence exists from Race 2 through Race 4. You have a strong opinion in Race 2 (Il Alchemysta), a solid favorite in Race 3 (Epico), and a two-horse lock in Race 4 (Betty’s Pearl/Joyful Justice). This structure allows for a condensed ticket with high probability. Conversely, the Late Pick 4 (Races 7-10) requires a “single” in Race 7 (Mainstream) to afford the necessary coverage in the chaotic Race 8 and Race 10.
Exotic Value Opportunities Target Race 5 and Race 6 for Trifecta and Superfecta plays. In both races, there is a “soft favorite” (Beastly Speed and Harrow) who are respected but vulnerable to pace scenarios. By playing against these favorites in the Win spot (placing them 2nd or 3rd on your ticket) while using the consensus alternatives (Real Macho or Ice Chocolat) on top, you can capture significantly higher payouts if the favorite runs a “good but not great” race.
Environmental/Track Factors The analysis heavily favors outside closers in the turf routes (Race 6, Race 10) while favoring speed/stalking types in the dirt miles (Race 2, Race 5). Pay close attention to the rail in the early turf races; if Royal Retinue (1) in Race 1 or Shape Note (1) in Race 8 get stuck inside and fail to fire, downgrade all rail horses in subsequent turf events.
Key Takeaways
- Anchor your day around Mainstream (8) in Race 7 and Sadie The Goat (5) in Race 9.
- Spread wide in the turf sprints (Race 1 and Race 8); expert consensus is non-existent there.
- Box the Exacta in Race 4 (2-7) and Race 9 (5-3) rather than trying to split hairs on the winner.
