Pick Pony takes pride in providing the most accurate expert picks available today. Pick Pony Expert Picks are carefully selected by our team of analysts based on analytics from our advanced Past Performance Sheets and Racing Forms. For potential longshot selections, check out Pick Pony’s AI Picks.
Race 1 – Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile 70Y Synthetic, Purse $53,000 WIN
Win: 1 Timeforpeace – confidence 75%🥇
Place: 2 Lady Rockula – confidence 55%🥉
Show: 5 Souper Landslide – confidence 50%
Alternative: 3 Blazing Bridgette – confidence 45%🥈
Notes: Analysts expect stretching 1 Timeforpeace around two turns on Tapeta to move her forward, with data models favoring her slightly over debuting runners. 2 Lady Rockula and 3 Blazing Bridgette are reliable for exotics, proven over the surface, while 5 Souper Landslide is an upside unknown best watched on the tote.
Race 2 – Maiden Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $29,000
Win: 7 Serenity Path – confidence 90%Place: 3 Toasttothestones – confidence 75%
Show: 5 Goldie Glory – confidence 55%🥉
Alternative: 6 Bella’s Breeze – confidence 30%🥈
Notes: Despite often burning money, 7 Serenity Path is most reliable on overall form. Pace analysts see speed from 3 Toasttothestones and 6 Bella’s Breeze as key, possibly impacting whether 7 Serenity Path finally wins or settles for second.
Race 3 – Claiming, 1 Mile 70Y Synthetic, Purse $24,500 BOXED TRIFECTA
Win: 5 Il Alchemysta – confidence 80%🥈
Place: 3 Will of a Warrior – confidence 60%🥇
Show: 2 Cryptonym – confidence 55%🥉
Alternative: 1 Sponge Time – confidence 30%
Notes: 5 Il Alchemysta’s second-off-layoff and new barn are considered strong angles, with the surface a positive. Lack of clear speed makes trip tactics critical, as 3 Will of a Warrior or 1 Sponge Time could upset data-favored runners with aggressive rides.
Race 4 – Maiden Claiming, 7 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $26,500
Win: 2 Araucano – confidence 90%
Place: 8 Final Payment – confidence 75%🥉
Show: 6 Sweet Lazarus – confidence 55%🥇
Alternative: 5 Expert Witness – confidence 35%🥈
Notes: Lacking depth, 2 Araucano is often marked a best bet or single. 5 Expert Witness could be a longshot exotic saver off a layoff and class drop; main appeal is in deeper vertical plays.
Race 5 – Starter Optional Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs Synthetic, Purse $33,000
Win: 4 Demar’s Legacy – confidence 70%
Place: 3 Heir to the Roar – confidence 65%🥈
Show: 1 St. Olaf Rose – confidence 55%
Alternative: 5 Happy Ride – confidence 35%
Notes: Handicappers call this a “three-deep” race—4 Demar’s Legacy, 3 Heir to the Roar, 1 St. Olaf Rose—with trip dynamics likely to determine the winner. A rapid early pace could enhance 3 Heir to the Roar’s late-run credibility.
Race 6 – Maiden Special Weight, 5 1/2 Furlongs Synthetic, Purse $56,000
Win: 2 Hot Lead – confidence 85%
Place: 4 Thought Control – confidence 65%
Show: 7 Escapades – confidence 55%
Alternative: 3 Deep Dusk – confidence 35%
Notes: 2 Hot Lead gets most analyst support off a strong local return, though the field’s debut runners could surprise. 4 Thought Control and 7 Escapades are treated as interchangeable B-levels for multis due to similar figures.
Race 7 – Claiming, 1 Mile Dirt, Purse $24,500
Win: 1 El Guty – confidence 70%
Place: 7 Sneak Preview – confidence 65%
Show: 3 Triumphant Road – confidence 55%
Alternative: 8 Song So Sweet – confidence 35%
Notes: Models back 1 El Guty for class and position; analysts also like 7 Sneak Preview’s claim-and-stretch angle. 3 Triumphant Road and 8 Song So Sweet have upset potential, so single-race spreads could be beneficial.
Race 8 – Allowance Optional Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs Synthetic, Purse $43,000
Win: 6 Be Thankful – confidence 85%
Place: 2 Baby Blocks – confidence 70%
Show: 4 Airdrie Hill – confidence 60%
Alternative: 3 Lucy’s Cookie – confidence 40%
Notes: 6 Be Thankful’s local synthetic form and class are seen as strong positives but her finish can be inconsistent, opening spots for 2 Baby Blocks, 4 Airdrie Hill, and 3 Lucy’s Cookie (especially if public underestimates).
Race 9 – Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $24,500
Win: 1 Pop Rox – confidence 75%
Place: 5 Fully Entitled – confidence 70%
Show: 2 Grace the Law – confidence 55%
Alternative: 3 Carroll’s Honor – confidence 35%
Notes: 1 Pop Rox switching to Gulfstream dirt for a new barn is a key positive, but 5 Fully Entitled is nearly as consistent. 2 Grace the Law and 3 Carroll’s Honor are good value options, with pace collapse making not using 3 Carroll’s Honor risky.
Exotic Bets and Value Plays (Updated)
Pick Pony analysts now see the early double (Races 1–2) as a strong structure point, with Timeforpeace and Serenity Path as primary A horses, supplemented by saver tickets that swap in Souper Landslide and Toasttothestones in the win leg to guard against an upset at fair prices.
The middle of the card, especially Races 4 and 5, still shapes up as a good spot to lean on Araucano and the Demar’s Legacy–Heir to the Roar–St. Olaf Rose trio in multi‑race wagers, constructing small “press” tickets that single Araucano and Demar’s Legacy together and larger coverage tickets that include the other two as B‑type backups.
For trifectas and superfectas, Pick Pony analysts recommend:
Race 2 – key Serenity Path in the top two slots with Toasttothestones, Goldie Glory, and Bella’s Breeze, but also build a small box or partial wheel giving Toasttothestones some win leverage against a potentially overbet favorite. Race 5 – play exactas and tris around Demar’s Legacy and Heir to the Roar, using St. Olaf Rose and Happy Ride underneath, emphasizing combinations that keep the three main contenders in the first two positions.
In the late Pick 4 (Races 6–9), updated consensus supports a strategy of using Hot Lead and Be Thankful as strong singles on some tickets, while alternate tickets spread more in Race 7 among El Guty, Sneak Preview, Triumphant Road, and Song So Sweet, and in Race 9 among Pop Rox, Fully Entitled, Grace the Law, and Carroll’s Honor to maximize payout potential if one leg produces a mild upset.
