Pick Pony takes pride in providing the most accurate expert picks available today. Pick Pony Expert Picks are carefully selected by our team of analysts based on analytics from our advanced Past Performance Sheets and Racing Forms. For potential longshot selections, check out Pick Pony’s AI Picks.
Note: Sometimes, a pick may appear twice; in such cases, we expect the horse to finish in one of the two predicted positions.
Race 1 – Claiming – 8F 66Y Dirt
Win: 4 Scenic Justice – 44% confidence
Place: 5 Vaccinator – 56% confidence🥉
Show: 6 Mohtafil – 33% confidence
Alternative: 2 Black White N Gold – 22% confidence🥈
Strong competition in the claiming opener with Scenic Justice receiving the most top selections despite Vaccinator appearing more frequently overall in the picks. Scenic Justice has been competitive at this level with a recent fifth-place finish. Vaccinator showed a solid fourth-place effort in the last outing and merits respect. Mohtafil arrives with a third-place finish at Presque Isle Downs. The pace should be moderate with tactical speed favored in this sprint distance.
Race 2 – Claiming – 8F 110Y Dirt WIN + EXACTA
Win: 7 Tap Bonnet – 56% confidence🥇
Place: 1 Pink Picture – 67% confidence🥈
Show: 3 Happy Match – 44% confidence
Alternative: 9 Midnight Caper – 11% confidence🥉
Tap Bonnet and Pink Picture dominate the expert selections as both finished second in their respective last starts at Horseshoe Indianapolis. This appears to be a two-horse race with Happy Match as the most logical third choice. The extended sprint distance should suit the pace-pressing types. Pink Picture drops in class after competitive efforts which could be the edge needed.
Race 3 – Allowance Optional Claiming – 1M 323Y Dirt WIN + TRIFECTA ($40.80)
Win: 3 Don’t Miss Out – 44% confidence🥇
Place: 5 Crosley – 33% confidence🥈
Show: 2 Lil Gin N Class – 22% confidence🥉
Alternative: 9 Sweet Saint – 22% confidence
Don’t Miss Out placed second last time at this track and has shown consistent form over course and distance. Crosley is a track specialist with four wins at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Sweet Saint has won four of five recent starts and could be dangerous at a price. The routing distance favors horses with proven stamina at this venue.
Race 4 – Allowance Optional Claiming – 1M 323Y Dirt WIN
Win: 11 Sleepy – 67% confidence🥇
Place: 8 Molly’s Town (Scratched) – Alternative: 4 Taillights – 22% confidence
Show: 1 Goldwyn – 11% confidence🥉
Alternative: 3 Commander Storm – 11% confidence
Sleepy is the overwhelming consensus choice after winning three straight races, all at Horseshoe Indianapolis. The scratch of Molly’s Town weakens the competition. Goldwyn drops in class which could provide improvement. Taillights placed third last time and has tactical speed. Sleepy’s current form makes this race look like a formality barring trouble.
Race 5 – Maiden Special Weight – 8F Dirt
Win: 5 Troubleonthegreen – 67% confidence🥈
Place: 4 Rosso Fuoco – 22% confidence
Show: 1 Brazilian Conexao – 33% confidence🥇
Alternative: 9 Tainted Justice – 33% confidence
Troubleonthegreen returns from a layoff after placing well when fresh previously. The class drop from stakes company to maiden special weight gives a significant edge. Rosso Fuoco finished third over course and distance last time. Tainted Justice has placed in all three career starts showing consistency. Brazilian Conexao returns from a break with a favorable post position.
Race 6 – Claiming – 8F Dirt WIN
Win: 5 Mr Negativity – 22% confidence🥇
Place: 1 Gimmel – 22% confidence
Show: 9 Buckle Up – 22% confidence
Alternative: 3 Bella’s Prayer – 11% confidence🥈
The scratch of favorite Highest Memories opens up this claiming sprint. Mr Negativity won last time at this track and has strong current form. Gimmel also comes off a maiden-breaking victory over course and distance. Buckle Up and Bella’s Prayer add depth to the exotic wagering. This race appears wide open with several legitimate contenders at attractive odds.
Race 7 – Maiden Special Weight – 1M 214Y Dirt
Win: 2 Seen You Later – 56% confidence
Place: 5 Powerful Justice – 22% confidence
Show: 10 Z’s Fireball – 33% confidence
Alternative: 1 Ta Ta Today Junior – 11% confidence
Seen You Later has placed in tougher stakes company and drops to maiden special weight, making this runner the one to beat. Powerful Justice finished a close second last time and should improve with the added distance. Z’s Fireball returns on short rest after finishing second as the favorite. The routing distance and two-turn configuration favor horses with proven stamina.
Race 8 – Maiden Claiming – 8F Turf
Win: 7 Boris Badenov – 33% confidence
Place: 8 My Lunar Charm – 22% confidence🥈
Show: 6 Veneno Futuro – 11% confidence
Alternative: 9 Stolen Power – 22% confidence🥇
Boris Badenov makes the debut for powerful trainer Michael Maker who excels with first-time starters. My Lunar Charm has been consistent with three placings from five starts and returns on short rest. Veneno Futuro drops in class after competing at Churchill Downs. The turf surface adds an element of unpredictability with several runners switching surfaces.
Race 9 – Allowance – 8F Dirt
Win: 5 Rapid Justice – 56% confidence🥈
Place: 1 Governor Ron – 22% confidence
Show: 3 Gin And Whiskey – 11% confidence🥇
Alternative: 10 Oil Man – 11% confidence
Rapid Justice receives strong support despite Governor Ron winning his last two races impressively. Governor Ron draws the rail which provides a significant positional advantage. Rapid Justice finished fourth in stronger competition last time. The pace scenario could favor closers if Governor Ron and other speed horses engage early.
Race 10 – Miss Indiana Stakes – 8F 66Y Dirt
Win: 2 Spirited Anne – 33% confidence🥈
Place: 1 Sahara Hottie – 44% confidence
Show: 6 Eltinge – 22% confidence
Alternative: 3 Over And Above – 11% confidence
The stakes quality elevates this competitive field. Sahara Hottie won impressively last time and has multiple wins at this venue. Spirited Anne has won or placed in three starts to begin her career. Eltinge has won or placed in all three career starts including a win at this track. Over And Above broke her maiden here last time. This race could produce upsets with several evenly-matched fillies.
Race 11 – Indiana Futurity – 8F 66Y Dirt WIN + EXACTA
Win: 2 Mister T – 67% confidence🥇
Place: 1 Young Angus – 56% confidence🥈
Show: 10 Mystik Justice – 22% confidence
Alternative: 7 Tail Gunner – 11% confidence
Mister T won a stakes race at this track last time and has won two straight races, both at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Young Angus finished second in that same stakes race and has won or placed in all three career starts. Mystik Justice broke his maiden here last time. This futurity appears to be a two-horse race between Mister T and Young Angus with exotic players needing to find the third and fourth finishers.
Race 12 – Maiden – 350Y Dirt – Quarter Horse
Win: 5 Jess R Patriot – 78% confidence
Place: 8 Cv B Dynamic – 22% confidence🥇
Show: 12 Seize The Big Bang – 11% confidence
Alternative: 6 I Stoli Yo Ferrari – 11% confidence
Jess R Patriot dominates the selections with strong support from multiple handicappers. This runner has two placings from six starts this prep and finished fourth last time at this track. Cv B Dynamic finished three lengths off the winner last start. Seize The Big Bang brings placed form. The quarter horse sprint should produce fast early fractions with little room for error.
Race 13 – Maiden – 350Y Dirt – Quarter Horse
Win: 12 Zoomin Cartel6 – 33% confidence
Place: 9 Tayler – 22% confidence
Show: 5 Gv Little Guy – 22% confidence🥇
Alternative: 11 Hh Chasing Cj – 22% confidence🥈
The finale features split opinions among handicappers. Zoomin Cartel6 has shown consistent form without winning. Tayler ran five lengths back from the winner last start. Gv Little Guy finished four lengths back last time and should improve. The quarter horse distance requires explosive speed from the gate making post position critical.
Recommended Exotic Bets and Value Plays
Early Pick 4 (Races 1-4): $48 ticket
Race 1: 4 Scenic Justice, 5 Vaccinator, 6 Mohtafil
Race 2: 1 Pink Picture, 7 Tap Bonnet
Race 3: 2 Lil Gin N Class, 3 Don’t Miss Out, 5 Crosley
Race 4: 11 Sleepy
The early Pick 4 builds around the standout Sleepy in Race 4 while spreading in the competitive first three races. This structure provides coverage of the top contenders at reasonable cost.
Middle Pick 4 (Races 5-8): $96 ticket
Race 5: 1 Brazilian Conexao, 4 Rosso Fuoco, 5 Troubleonthegreen, 9 Tainted Justice
Race 6: 1 Gimmel, 5 Mr Negativity, 9 Buckle Up
Race 7: 2 Seen You Later, 5 Powerful Justice, 10 Z’s Fireball
Race 8: 6 Veneno Futuro, 7 Boris Badenov, 8 My Lunar Charm, 9 Stolen Power
The middle Pick 4 spreads through unsettled races with multiple contenders. Race 6 looks particularly vulnerable after the scratch of the favorite.
Late Pick 4 (Races 10-13): $72 ticket
Race 10: 1 Sahara Hottie, 2 Spirited Anne, 6 Eltinge
Race 11: 1 Young Angus, 2 Mister T
Race 12: 5 Jess R Patriot, 8 Cv B Dynamic, 12 Seize The Big Bang
Race 13: 5 Gv Little Guy, 9 Tayler, 11 Hh Chasing Cj, 12 Zoomin Cartel6
The late Pick 4 keys the strong duo in Race 11 while spreading in the other three legs to catch value.
Race 4 Win Bet: 11 Sleepy
The strongest single-race play of the card. Sleepy has won three consecutive races at this track and receives overwhelming handicapper support. This runner should be bet to win with confidence.
Race 7 Exacta Box: 2 Seen You Later / 5 Powerful Justice ($4 for $1)
These two runners separate from the maiden field based on recent performances. Seen You Later drops from stakes company while Powerful Justice finished a close second last time.
Race 11 Exacta: 2 Mister T over 1 Young Angus, 7 Tail Gunner, 10 Mystik Justice ($6 for $1)
Mister T looks like the clear top choice coming off the stakes victory. Using Young Angus, Tail Gunner, and Mystik Justice underneath provides value with the exacta structure.
Race 2 Trifecta: 1,7 / 1,7 / 1,3,7,9 ($8 for $1)
The top two runners Pink Picture and Tap Bonnet should finish in the top two positions. Adding Happy Match and Midnight Caper for third creates solid trifecta value.
Race 10 Trifecta Box: 1 Sahara Hottie / 2 Spirited Anne / 6 Eltinge ($6 for $1)
The three top fillies all have legitimate winning chances in this competitive stakes. The trifecta box provides full coverage of the likely outcome.
Value Play: Race 3 – 9 Sweet Saint to Win
Sweet Saint has won four of five recent starts and offers value at the projected 15-1 morning line odds. This runner has been on fire since October first and gets top jockey Joe Ramos who has excelled in sprints recently.
Value Play: Race 9 – 1 Governor Ron to Win
Governor Ron has won two straight races at this track and draws the favorable rail position. The morning line odds appear generous given the current winning streak and tactical advantages.
