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Race 1 Maiden Claiming 1320Y Dirt
Win: AS THE BELL TOLES (3) – 38% confidence
Place: BACK WALL BANDIT (5) – 46% confidence
Show: IZZY’S ROCK STAR (8) – 38% confidence
Alternative: STYLISH GEM (2) – 46% confidence
Analyst notes indicate that As The Bell Toles (3) is the class of the field dropping down for a top barn. Back Wall Bandit (5) receives an upgrade based on a troubled trip last out where she was shuffled and caught wide. Stylish Gem (2) is expected to benefit from a cutback in distance after showing early speed in a longer route.
Race 2 Allowance Optional Claiming 8F 110Y Dirt
Win: MIGHTY LINDSEY (1) – 46% confidence
Place: MISS FULTON GAL (5) – 62% confidence
Show: IVY GIRL (6) – 38% confidence
Alternative: TACIT VALUE (4) – 31% confidence
The field is led by Mighty Lindsey (1), who analyst consensus favors despite a green debut. Miss Fulton Gal (5) has strong support in the place position after a powerful gallop-out in her last effort. Ivy Girl (6) is a high-profile class dropper after competing in Grade 2 company, making her a dangerous inclusion in exotics.
Race 3 Maiden Claiming 1320Y Dirt
Win: JUNIPER’S JUBILEE (2) – 77% confidence
Place: MY GIRL BACK HOME (1) – 62% confidence
Show: HOOF AND BOOTS (8) – 38% confidence
Alternative: GRIPEN (6) – 23% confidence
This is a heavy consensus race for Juniper’s Jubilee (2), who analyst reports describe as being eligible for a major step forward after a disastrous trip involving checking and being boxed in. My Girl Back Home (1) is the logical secondary choice, while Hoof and Boots (8) adds lasix for a new barn.
Race 4 Claiming 1210Y Dirt
Win: BARBADOS BULLDOG (6) – 46% confidence
Place: NO MO MUFFINS (8) – 38% confidence
Show: YES PICNIC (2) – 46% confidence
Alternative: RERUN TABLE (7) – 31% confidence
Opinion is fractured here, but Barbados Bulldog (6) carries the most analyst momentum following a commanding win. Rerun Table (7) is highlighted as a value play by an analyst who notes the barn is 42% when dropping from allowance to claiming. Kuaga (1) is also an upgrade candidate after setting a fast pace on a closer-biased track.
Race 5 Claiming 8F Dirt
Win: WHAT DOES IT TAKE (2) – 46% confidence
Place: MISTICAL CURLIN (8) – 38% confidence
Show: COACHES MEETING (6) – 23% confidence
Alternative: BIGTONTEN (5) – 31% confidence
What Does It Take (2) is a track specialist with strong support. However, analyst notes give a significant upgrade to Mistical Curlin (8), who was boxed in along the rail when full of run last time and arguably should have won. Quincannon (12) is also mentioned as having more talent than the margin suggested last out.
Race 6 Nellie Morse Stakes 8F 110Y Dirt
Win: COMPLEXITY JANE (7) – 77% confidence
Place: SULTRY LASS (1) – 46% confidence
Show: DOCTOR ABBIE (6) – 23% confidence
Alternative: LATE NITE CALL (5) – 38% confidence
Complexity Jane (7) is the dominant choice looking for a hat trick. Analysts suggest Late Nite Call (5) is a major upgrade candidate because she set a fast pace against a noted closer bias last time and was only caught late by the favorite. Sultry Lass (1) also faced that bias and should improve back at this distance.
Race 7 Post Time Stakes 9F Dirt
Win: CALL ME FAST (5) – 77% confidence
Place: OTTER MISCHIEF (2) – 54% confidence
Show: WARP NINE (6) – 46% confidence
Alternative: CADET CORPS (4) – 31% confidence
Call Me Fast (5) is the most consistent selection across all analyst sheets. Cadet Corps (4) is noted for a huge effort in Grade 3 company recently. Jokestar (1) is highlighted as a sleeper returning to dirt, as he recently ran against a track flow that favored speed.
Race 8 Barbara Fritchie Stakes 1540Y Dirt
Win: TAKETHEMONEYHONEY (4) – 85% confidence
Place: DRY POWDER (1) – 62% confidence
Show: PASSAGE EAST (7) – 62% confidence
Alternative: HOLD YOUR BREATH (2) – 23% confidence
The heaviest favorite on the card is Takethemoneyhoney (4), who analysts note barely got out of second gear in her last stakes win. Dry Powder (1) returns from the Breeders’ Cup Distaff and represents the primary class threat, though she must overcome a potential track bias.
Race 9 General George Stakes 1540Y Dirt
Win: QUINT’S BREW (4) – 62% confidence
Place: POINT DUME (5) – 38% confidence
Show: SLAM NOTION (7) – 38% confidence
Alternative: BLUE KINGDOM (1) – 31% confidence
Quint’s Brew (4) is the consensus choice, but analysts warn that Point Dume (5) recently posted a massive speed figure despite getting out on the turn. Blue Kingdom (1) is viewed as a game contender who may be able to float the favorites wide if the tactics align.
Race 10 Maiden Claiming 1320Y Dirt
Win: RUN TZU (9) – 38% confidence
Place: SOUPER VINNIE (2) – 46% confidence
Show: TWELVE NELSON (6) – 54% confidence
Alternative: RAILROAD INN (4) – 23% confidence
Analysts are split between the speed of Run Tzu (9) and the trouble-line of Souper Vinnie (2). Vinnie (2) was boxed in on a speed-biased synthetic track last out and receives a major upgrade for his return to dirt. Twelve Nelson (6) is consistently placed in the show spot across most analyst selections.
Recommended Exotic Plays by Race
Analysts suggest focusing on Race 3 and Race 8 as the anchors for multi-race sequences. In Race 3, Juniper’s Jubilee (2) is viewed as a standout single for Pick 3 and Pick 4 players. For Race 8, Takethemoneyhoney (4) commands similar respect, though analysts recommend a cold Exacta with Dry Powder (1) to maximize return on a heavy favorite.
In Race 4, analysts recommend a Trifecta box featuring Barbados Bulldog (6), No Mo Muffins (8), Yes Picnic (2), and Rerun Table (7). The wide distribution of picks in this race suggests that a “spread” approach here could catch a high-paying combination if the favorites falter. Similarly, Race 10 presents an opportunity for a Superfecta wheel using Run Tzu (9) and Souper Vinnie (2) on top, with Twelve Nelson (6), Railroad Inn (4), and Destination (3) underneath to capture value from the deeper field.
Value Play Observations
The most significant value play identified by analysts is Late Nite Call (5) in Race 6. While Complexity Jane (7) will likely be a short price, Late Nite Call (5) set an honest pace against a severe closer bias in their last meeting. If the track is neutral today, her 8/1 morning line is a massive overlay compared to her actual win probability.
Rerun Table (7) in Race 4 also stands out as an overlay. While consensus leans toward Barbados Bulldog (6), the trainer stats for Rerun Table (7) dropping into claiming ranks suggest she has a much higher win percentage than her 7/2 odds imply. Conversely, analysts warn that Point Dume (5) in Race 9 may be an underlay; despite his 97 Beyer, his tendency to drift out could prove fatal against a seasoned stakes winner like Quint’s Brew (4).
Overall Wagering Strategy
The Laurel Park card for February 14 presents a distinct bifurcated structure between high-confidence anchors and wide-open claiming events. Analyst consensus reaches its peak in Race 3, Race 6, Race 7, and Race 8, where dominant favorites like Juniper’s Jubilee (2), Complexity Jane (7), Call Me Fast (5), and Takethemoneyhoney (4) command over 65% confidence. These horses serve as the logical foundations for Pick 4 and Pick 5 constructions, allowing bettors to focus their financial resources on more volatile races.
The primary tension on the card is found in the split-opinion races of Race 4 and Race 10. In Race 4, analysts are deeply divided between Barbados Bulldog (6) and Yes Picnic (2), with a significant value argument made for Rerun Table (7). This analytical tension suggests a race where form is transitioning, and bettors should consider using multiple horses to survive horizontal sequences. In Race 10, the conflict between Run Tzu (9) and the troubled-trip candidate Souper Vinnie (2) creates a classic betting dilemma between established speed and potential improvement, making it an ideal candidate for Exacta boxes.
Strategic guidance for multi-race sequences suggests a Pick 4 starting in Race 6 and ending in Race 9. With heavy favorites in the first three legs of this sequence, the carryover potential is concentrated on finding the correct combination in the General George Stakes (Race 9). Analysts recommend using a “skinny” approach in the first three legs to afford a deeper spread in the final leg, where the potential for Point Dume (5) to drift or Blue Kingdom (1) to upset the favorite creates pricing inefficiency.
Environmental factors remain a critical variable, specifically regarding track bias. Multiple analysts noted a recent closer bias at Laurel Park that impacted several runners on today’s card. If this bias persists, horses like Late Nite Call (5) and Sultry Lass (1) may find their front-running styles compromised, while off-the-pace types like Navani (3) would see a significant boost in probability. Bettors should observe the early races to determine if the rail is “dead” or if speed is holding before committing to large wagers on the stakes races.
Key takeaways for the card include prioritizing the class relief of Rerun Table (7) as a value play, using Takethemoneyhoney (4) as a definitive single in all multi-race wagers, and giving heavy weight to the troubled-trip upgrades for Mistical Curlin (8) and Souper Vinnie (2). These three insights represent the highest probability for capturing value relative to the likely public betting patterns.
