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Race 1 – Maiden Special Weight, 6F Dirt, $20,034
Win: 4-Kiddie Cocktail (80% confidence)
Place: 6-Mshawish’girl (80% confidence)
Show: 2-Franchetti (40% confidence)
Alternative: 5-Golden Haul (20% confidence)
Multiple analysts favor Kiddie Cocktail to break through in this maiden special weight. The colt has shown steady improvement and benefits from strong trainer Robert M. Gorham guidance. Mshawish’girl appears as the primary competition, having finished as a beaten favorite in her most recent outing. The filly’s connections remain confident with the slight class adjustment. Franchetti debuts from Justin Radosevich’s barn and receives consideration from multiple analysts for exotics.
Race 2 – Claiming, 1M Dirt, $9,388
Win: 2-Third City (60% confidence)
Place: 4-Tetched (40% confidence)
Show: 5-Kykeon (60% confidence)
Alternative: 1-All My Life (20% confidence)
Third City emerges as the consensus choice despite some disagreement among analysts. The gelding won his previous start at Mahoning Valley and maintains steady form at this track. Tetched bolted home last start and represents Anthony Farrior’s stable, which commands respect. Kykeon brings consistent place performances and fits this competitive claiming field well.
Race 3 – Allowance, 1M Dirt, $16,632
Win: 6-Runningforjoy (80% confidence)
Place: 5-Patriarchal (60% confidence)
Show: 1-Casual Attire (20% confidence)
Alternative: 4-Hidden Access (40% confidence)
Runningforjoy receives overwhelming support as the standout in this allowance field. The gelding has won his last start at Mahoning Valley and shows strong form with three wins from eleven attempts this campaign. Patriarchal provides the main challenge with solid track history and trainer Caryn Vecchio’s strong stable. Hidden Access brings proven track form and could surprise if pace dynamics favor a closer.
Race 4 – Claiming, 1M Dirt, $9,388
Win: 2-Diamonds N Dew (100% confidence)
Place: 4-Power Banker (60% confidence)
Show: 1-Truly Inclusive (20% confidence)
Alternative: 5-Tale Of The Lyon (20% confidence)
Diamonds N Dew achieves unanimous support from all handicapping sources. The mare won at Thistledown and has placed twice this campaign, demonstrating consistent form. Trainer Shane Meyers has the gelding perfectly placed for this spot. Power Banker provides the most likely competition from Robert C. Cline’s stable and fits the level well.
Race 5 – Claiming, 1M Dirt, $9,388
Win: 3-Action Man (40% confidence)
Place: 1-Z Boss (60% confidence)
Show: 4-Valid Connection (40% confidence)
Alternative: 7-Cocktails At Noon (20% confidence)
Race 5 presents the most divided opinion among analysts. Action Man holds a slight edge with Jason DaCosta training, though Z Boss commands significant support with strong recent form showing two wins from fourteen attempts. Valid Connection represents value from the Guaranteed Tip Sheet selection, while Cocktails At Noon could provide upset potential at longer odds.
Race 6 – Allowance, 6F Dirt, $16,632
Win: 2-Trigger Point (60% confidence)
Place: 4-Ruffin (60% confidence)
Show: 6-Excitement (40% confidence)
Alternative: 1-Thunderian (20% confidence)
The allowance sprint features strong competition between the top three selections. Trigger Point finished a nose back from the leader in his most recent start and benefits from consistent trainer Jay P. Bernardini guidance. Ruffin has three placings from six runs this prep and ran third last start. Excitement brings two wins from nine attempts this campaign and finished third most recently.
Race 7 – Claiming, 1210Y Dirt, $9,388
Win: 2-Kingdom Trails (60% confidence)
Place: 3-Olympic Wings (40% confidence)
Show: 4-Angel I’m Not (60% confidence)
Alternative: 7-Rosetta (20% confidence)
Kingdom Trails receives strong support after winning two consecutive races at Mahoning Valley. The gelding’s current form makes him difficult to oppose. Olympic Wings provides credible competition with a Thistledown victory this campaign. Angel I’m Not brings tactical speed and consistent placing from Robert C. Cline’s stable.
Race 8 – Starter Allowance, 1M 70Y Dirt, $11,088
Win: 1-Dreaming Of Audrey (100% confidence)
Place: 4-Redwhiteandtacos (80% confidence)
Show: 2-Chess Not Checkers (40% confidence)
Alternative: 7-Princessofthenorth (20% confidence)
Dreaming Of Audrey achieves complete consensus as the dominant selection. The mare seeks her fourth consecutive victory after another win at Mahoning Valley last start. Her strong track record and current form make her nearly unbeatable in this spot. Redwhiteandtacos won his last two races at Mountaineer and represents the primary threat.
Race 9 – Allowance, 6F Dirt, $16,318
Win: 5-Fashion Victim (40% confidence)
Place: 7-Arrogarsi (60% confidence)
Show: 2-Vanished (40% confidence)
Alternative: 6-Kass N Kiki (40% confidence)
The final race presents balanced opinions across multiple contenders. Fashion Victim narrowly lost as a heavily-backed favorite last start at Charles Town. Arrogarsi won last start breaking maiden status at Mountaineer when resuming and brings strong trainer William E. Morey support. Vanished provides place value after finishing second most recently at Thistledown.
Recommended Exotic Plays by Race
Race 1
Exacta Box: 4-Kiddie Cocktail, 6-Mshawish’girl
The top two selections dominate analyst support and represent the most likely combination. Both horses bring different running styles that set up well for an exacta finish.
Trifecta: 4-Kiddie Cocktail/6-Mshawish’girl with 2-Franchetti, 5-Golden Haul
Adding the debut runner Franchetti and Golden Haul provides coverage for the third position while maintaining strong win candidates.
Race 2
Exacta: 2-Third City with 4-Tetched, 5-Kykeon
Third City represents the win play with Tetched and Kykeon providing value in the place position.
Trifecta Key: 2-Third City over 4-Tetched, 5-Kykeon, 1-All My Life with 4-Tetched, 5-Kykeon, 1-All My Life
Keying Third City on top maximizes value while covering the contentious place and show positions.
Race 3
Win/Place Double: 6-Runningforjoy
The overwhelming consensus warrants straightforward win and place betting on the top selection.
Trifecta: 6-Runningforjoy over 5-Patriarchal, 4-Hidden Access with 5-Patriarchal, 4-Hidden Access, 1-Casual Attire
Structuring with Runningforjoy on top while boxing the competitive place horses maximizes potential returns.
Race 4
Win Bet: 2-Diamonds N Dew
Unanimous support makes this a standalone win bet opportunity.
Exacta: 2-Diamonds N Dew with 4-Power Banker
The top two represent clear separation from the field and offer solid exacta value.
Race 5
Trifecta Box: 3-Action Man, 1-Z Boss, 4-Valid Connection
The divided opinions warrant boxing the top three selections to capture the competitive nature of this race.
Exacta Wheel: 3-Action Man, 1-Z Boss with ALL
Wheeling the top two selections with all runners provides coverage given the uncertainty.
Race 6
Exacta Box: 2-Trigger Point, 4-Ruffin
Both horses receive strong support and represent logical exacta combinations.
Trifecta: 2-Trigger Point, 4-Ruffin with 2-Trigger Point, 4-Ruffin, 6-Excitement with 2-Trigger Point, 4-Ruffin, 6-Excitement, 1-Thunderian
The competitive allowance field warrants broader coverage in trifecta wagering.
Race 7
Exacta: 2-Kingdom Trails with 3-Olympic Wings, 4-Angel I’m Not
Kingdom Trails’ winning streak positions him well for another victory with the other selections providing place value.
Trifecta: 2-Kingdom Trails over 3-Olympic Wings, 4-Angel I’m Not with 3-Olympic Wings, 4-Angel I’m Not, 7-Rosetta
Keying the favorite while boxing underneath maximizes value potential.
Race 8
Win Bet: 1-Dreaming Of Audrey
The unanimous consensus and strong winning streak justify straightforward win betting.
Exacta: 1-Dreaming Of Audrey over 4-Redwhiteandtacos, 2-Chess Not Checkers
Locking Dreaming Of Audrey on top with the competitive place horses provides solid exotic value.
Race 9
Trifecta Box: 5-Fashion Victim, 7-Arrogarsi, 2-Vanished, 6-Kass N Kiki
The balanced analyst opinions warrant boxing all four primary contenders.
Daily Double (Race 8-9): 1-Dreaming Of Audrey with 5-Fashion Victim, 7-Arrogarsi
Connecting the dominant Race 8 winner with the top two Race 9 selections creates attractive double value.
Multi-Race Wagers
Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8): 2-Trigger Point, 4-Ruffin with 2-Kingdom Trails, 3-Olympic Wings with 1-Dreaming Of Audrey
This sequence combines logical favorites with competitive races for solid Pick 3 value.
Pick 4 (Races 6-7-8-9): 2-Trigger Point, 4-Ruffin with 2-Kingdom Trails, 3-Olympic Wings with 1-Dreaming Of Audrey with 5-Fashion Victim, 7-Arrogarsi, 2-Vanished
The late Pick 4 offers strong potential returns by connecting competitive middle legs with a dominant favorite and balanced finale.
Value Play Observations
Race 1 Value Analysis
5-Golden Haul at 3-1 represents potential value as a debut runner from Smokin C LLC. While receiving limited analyst support, the breeding and stable connections suggest improvement potential beyond current expectations.
Race 2 Value Analysis
6-Why Not Me at 6-1 received singular support from FanDuel analysts but represents interesting value. The gelding’s connections with Chad T. Skelton training could produce surprise results at attractive odds.
Race 3 Value Analysis
2-Secret Trouble at 4-1 provides value consideration with FanDuel backing despite limited broader support. The gelding brings strong recent form that could translate to competitive performance.
Race 4 Value Analysis
7-Line Dancer at 7-2 offers value alternative to the consensus favorite. Single analyst support from Tip Meerkat suggests potential for upset returns at reasonable odds.
Race 5 Value Analysis
This race presents the strongest value opportunity given divided analyst opinions. 7-Cocktails At Noon at 8-1 represents longshot potential with single analyst backing. 4-Valid Connection at 7-2 provides middle-ground value as the Guaranteed Tip Sheet selection, suggesting hidden form not universally recognized.
Race 6 Value Analysis
3-Golden Flag at 10-1 received FanDuel support and could provide value returns. The gelding’s connections with Timothy E. Hamm training warrant consideration for deeper exotic plays.
Race 7 Value Analysis
7-Rosetta at 12-1 brings longshot value despite running at long odds. The mare’s strong campaign form with three wins from fifteen attempts suggests competitive ability that could produce surprise results.
Race 8 Value Analysis
Limited value exists given unanimous consensus on Dreaming Of Audrey. 6-Gracie Dance at 15-1 represents the only contrarian value play with single FanDuel backing for exotics consideration.
Race 9 Value Analysis
The balanced field creates multiple value opportunities. 6-Kass N Kiki at 5-1 receives support across multiple sources and represents solid value. 2-Vanished at 5-2 provides place value given strong recent form finishing second at Thistledown.
Overall Value Strategy
Focus value wagering on Races 2, 5, and 9 where analyst opinions diverge most significantly. These competitive fields create overlay opportunities on horses with legitimate winning chances but divided support. Race 5 particularly warrants attention for value players given the wide distribution of selections across multiple contenders.
