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Race 1 – Claiming – 1 Mile 70 Yards – Dirt
Win: FRAME UP (5) – 100% confidence
Place: BOZAANO (3) – 50% confidence
Show: KLIMTSTER (6) – 33% confidence
Alternative: CHARLIESLITLDEVIL (1) – 50% confidence
Race Notes: A rare unanimous consensus. Every single analyst reviewed has identified Frame Up as the winner, signaling extremely high confidence in this runner’s current form. The minor placings are debated, but the top spot is locked in by the data.
Race 2 – Maiden Special Weight – 6 Furlongs – Dirt
Win: ROGUES A PLOTTING (6) – 83% confidence
Place: LEGAL JARGON (7) – 50% confidence
Show: LOWELLS LEGACY (4) – 33% confidence
Alternative: EL CANELO ONE (5) – 33% confidence
Race Notes: Strong agreement on the winner here, with nearly all sources pointing to Rogues A Plotting. Legal Jargon appears frequently in the exactas, suggesting a very logical 6-7 straight bet structure.
Race 3 – Claiming – 6 Furlongs – Dirt
Win: FEELING EASY (3) – 67% confidence
Place: KAT TRAX (6) – 50% confidence
Show: MOBIL MEMORY (7) – 17% confidence
Alternative: COMMISSIONER D (4) – 17% confidence
Race Notes: While there is a clear favorite in Feeling Easy, there is some dissent with Mobil Memory and Kat Trax receiving top-choice nods from isolated sources. The data suggests Feeling Easy is the class of the field, but the race is not as locked down as the opener.
Race 4 – Claiming – 5 1/2 Furlongs – Dirt
Win: PARTY POOPER (4) – 83% confidence
Place: MATTHEW’S PATRIOT (1) – 60% confidence
Show: GAPPER (8) – 33% confidence
Alternative: CONDEMNATION (6) – 33% confidence
Race Notes: Another high-confidence race. Party Pooper is the dominant selection. The 1 horse, Matthew’s Patriot, appears consistently in the place position, creating a very strong 4-1 exacta key based on analyst patterns.
Race 5 – Claiming – 6 Furlongs – Dirt
Win: BOX STEP (1) – 67% confidence
Place: LADY LOTTIE (7) – 33% confidence
Show: DIAMONDS N DEW (6) – 50% confidence
Alternative: LADY FORTUNE (2) – 17% confidence
Race Notes: Box Step commands the majority of the win picks, but there is a notable faction supporting Lady Lottie. This divergence suggests Lady Lottie could offer value if the public overbets Box Step.
Race 6 – Maiden Special Weight – 6 Furlongs – Dirt
Win: SHALLOWBROOK (4) – 50% confidence
Place: DR SPIRITO (1) – 50% confidence
Show: H F S MEMORIES (2) – 67% confidence
Alternative: WATCH DUST FLY (3) – 17% confidence
Race Notes: A dead heat in analyst opinion. The field is split evenly between Shallowbrook and Dr Spirito for the win. However, H F S Memories is the most consistent horse on the board, appearing in the top three across almost all sources, making it a reliable board hitter.
Race 7 – Claiming – 6 Furlongs – Dirt
Win: INSTIGATION (5) – 50% confidence
Place: LIONISTIC (4) – 50% confidence
Show: SHE’S CRAFTY (1) – 33% confidence
Alternative: CHANEL SPIRIT (2) – 17% confidence
Race Notes: This race presents a classic duel. The analysts are divided strictly down the middle between Instigation and Lionistic. These two horses absorb almost all the win and place sentiment, indicating a two-horse race where the rest of the field is largely ignored.
Race 8 – Claiming – 6 Furlongs – Dirt
Win: MISS FOXANN (9) – 33% confidence
Place: PATTY’S HAVING FUN (1) – 33% confidence
Show: HERE KITTY KITTY (4) – 50% confidence
Alternative: LUNA LLENA (8) – 33% confidence
Race Notes: The most chaotic race of the day. Four different horses received win selections (Miss Foxann, Patty’s Having Fun, Luna Llena, and Geegee’s Story). Confidence is low, meaning this race is a prime candidate for “spread” bets or simply skipping the win pool.
Race 9 – Allowance – 6 Furlongs – Dirt
Win: BIG PRANKSTER (6) – 33% confidence
Place: CHRIS’S REVENGE (10) – 33% confidence
Show: MEGASTAR (1) – 33% confidence
Alternative: CARNIVAL ROCK (2) – 33% confidence
Race Notes: Similar to Race 8, opinion is highly fragmented. Big Prankster and Chris’s Revenge have slight edges, but the presence of win picks for Megastar and Carnival Rock suggests a very open contest with potential for a price.
Race 10 – Maiden Special Weight – 6 Furlongs – Dirt
Win: WILD DOMAIN (5) – 100% confidence
Place: MY FOR O ONE KAY (8) – 33% confidence
Show: SILVER B B (1) – 33% confidence
Alternative: BOLD WINDSOR (3) – 17% confidence
Race Notes: The card concludes with a lock. Wild Domain is the second unanimous selection of the day. The vertical exotics (place/show) are scattered, but the win position is heavily fortified by analyst agreement.
Recommended Exotic Plays by Race
Race 1: The consensus is absolute on Frame Up (5). A Trifecta Key is the most efficient play here: 5 over 3, 6, 1. This leverages the unanimous win view while covering the minor shuffle for place and show.
Race 2: With Rogues A Plotting (6) as a strong favorite and Legal Jargon (7) consistently appearing in the runner-up spot, a Straight Exacta 6-7 is the value play. For a safer approach, Box 6-7, but the data leans heavily toward the 6 on top.
Race 4: The data presents a “Cold Exacta” opportunity. Analysts like Party Pooper (4) to win and Matthew’s Patriot (1) to place. An Exacta Straight 4-1 aligns perfectly with the frequency data.
Race 6: Since opinion is split between the 1 and 4, this is an ideal Exacta Box 1-4. H F S Memories (2) is a very strong “show” candidate, so a Trifecta 1,4 / 1,4 / 2 is a structured way to capitalize on the two favorites finishing 1-2 with the reliable board-hitter in 3rd.
Race 7: This is a two-horse duel. A Daily Double linking the winner of Race 6 (using both 1 and 4) to the two favorites here (4 and 5) covers the most probable outcomes. For single-race wagers, an Exacta Box 4-5 is the safest route.
Race 8: Due to high volatility and four different win picks, this is a Superfecta Box race. Combining the 1, 3, 8, and 9 allows you to capture a potentially high payout if the favorites falter. This is a “spread” race—do not rely on a single key.
Race 10: Wild Domain (5) is a “Single” candidate. Use this horse to close out Pick 3 or Pick 4 tickets. For straight wagers, a Trifecta Key 5 over 1, 6, 8 captures the scattered opinion for the minor awards.
Value Play Observations
Race 5: While Box Step (1) has the volume of picks, Lady Lottie (7) has picked up win endorsements from high-profile sources despite not being the consensus leader. If Lady Lottie floats up in odds (5-1 or higher), she represents a mathematical overlay compared to her analyst backing.
Race 6: H F S Memories (2) is consistently projected to hit the board (Place/Show) but rarely picked to win. This profile often results in good “Show” prices or value on the bottom of exotic tickets, as the public may ignore him for the win spot.
Race 8: Geegee’s Story (3) and Patty’s Having Fun (1) are picked to win by some sources but ignored by others. In a chaotic field, any horse with a legitimate win vote that goes off at double-digit odds is a statistically sound “value” bet.
Overall Wagering Strategy
Strongest Consensus Races
The card is bookended by two distinct “locks.” Race 1 (Frame Up) and Race 10 (Wild Domain) both command 100% consensus from the analyzed sources. These two runners are the pillars of the day. They should be used as “Singles” in any multi-race sequence (Daily Double, Pick 3, Pick 4). Their failure to win would be a significant statistical anomaly based on the expert data, so maximizing ticket efficiency by singling them allows for deeper coverage in the more difficult middle races.
Split-Opinion Races
The middle of the card, specifically Race 6 and Race 7, presents a different challenge. In Race 6, the divide is between Dr Spirito and Shallowbrook. In Race 7, it is between Instigation and Lionistic. In these scenarios, the wager should effectively be a “match race” bet. Avoid trying to find a longshot third party; the data indicates the winner will almost certainly come from the pair of favorites. Structure tickets to survive these legs by using “2-deep” coverage rather than spreading too thin.
Multi-Race Sequences
A highly logical Pick 4 sequence presents itself from Race 1 through Race 4. You have a single in leg 1 (Frame Up), a strong favorite in leg 2 (Rogues A Plotting), a semi-strong favorite in leg 3 (Feeling Easy), and a dominant favorite in leg 4 (Party Pooper). This structure suggests a ticket cost can be kept very low while still retaining high probability. A more aggressive sequence is the Late Pick 3 (Races 8-10), but Race 8 requires a “spread” (using ALL or many horses) due to the lack of consensus, before narrowing down to the single in Race 10.
Exotic Value Opportunities
Race 8 is the primary target for upset hunting. With four different horses receiving top-pick status, the public money will be fractured. This creates pools where even a moderate longshot can trigger an oversized Exacta or Trifecta payout. This is the race to play “against the grain”—if there is a hot favorite on the tote board, the analyst data suggests they are vulnerable, justifying a bet on the second or third tier of odds.
Environmental Factors
The forecast calls for cold temperatures (12°F), which often tightens the track surface. Be wary of horses returning from long layoffs (marked as “let-up” in notes), as the cold air can be harsh on fitness. The consensus favorites today are largely those with recent, sharp form, which aligns well with the expected conditions.
Key Takeaways
- Bookend the Card: Anchor your budget on Race 1 and Race 10. These are the most statistically secure investment vehicles of the day.
- Attack the Middle Duels: In Race 6 and 7, do not overthink. Box the two favorites in Exactas; the analysts see a wide gap between them and the rest of the field.
- Spread in Race 8: Do not trust a favorite in Race 8. The expert data is too noisy. Use this leg to hunt for a price or cover as many runners as your budget permits in multi-race bets.
