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Race 1 – Starter Allowance, 1 Mile, Dirt, 5:15 PM, $17,600 Purse
Win: 2 Real Naughty (57%)
Place: 5 Shivaree (43%)
Show: 6 Puff’smagicdragon (43%)🥇
Alternative: 7 Sudden Shift (29%)🥈
Notes: Real Naughty enters with four wins from six starts this campaign and demonstrates strong form at Mahoning Valley. Shivaree seeks a fifth consecutive victory after winning over the course and distance last start, having won all previous races as the favorite. Puff’smagicdragon also boasts an unbeaten record when favored. Sudden Shift is a track specialist with three Mahoning Valley wins and solid current form. This race features two horses on winning streaks battling for favoritism, creating potential value in exacta combinations.
Race 2 – Claiming, 6 Furlongs, Dirt, 5:43 PM, $14,600 Purse
Win: 2 Pearl Magic (43%)
Place: 4 Calcolery (14%)
Show: 5 Our Lady Peace (57%)
Alternative: 1 Save The Date (29%)
Notes: Pearl Magic narrowly missed last start and shows two placings from four runs this preparation. Our Lady Peace receives extremely strong support for an in-the-money finish despite a recent disqualification. Save The Date has placed in higher-grade company and draws the rail. Shady Nights broke maiden at Mahoning Valley last start and attracted support from some analysts. This field appears evenly matched, suggesting value in wider exotic coverage.
Race 3 – Claiming, 1 Mile, Dirt, 6:11 PM, $14,900 Purse
Win: 2 Amazingness (57%)
Place: 7 My Fine Aquiline (29%)
Show: 9 Magically Vanished (29%)
Alternative: 4 Sicilian Style Two (29%)
Notes: Amazingness drops in class after a solid fourth-place finish and receives strong support. Shieldmewithprayer shows good form with two wins from eight starts this campaign but could only place as favorite last out. My Fine Aquiline comes off a Mahoning Valley victory. Magically Vanished won two straight at Mountaineer. Sicilian Style Two finished second over a shorter trip recently. The class dropper Amazingness looks the play, but Shieldmewithprayer represents live competition from the local form angle.
Race 4 – Claiming, 6 Furlongs, Dirt, 6:39 PM, $15,400 Purse
Win: 3 Reno Touch (57%)
Place: 2 Countryclub Couple (43%)
Show: 9 American Of Course (29%)
Alternative: 10 Chipotle Pepper (29%)
Notes: Reno Touch won last start at Mahoning Valley and has won two of three as a favorite, generating strong analyst support. Countryclub Couple placed second here most recently with a prior win at Charles Town. American Of Course demonstrates consistency with two wins and placings in all other starts this campaign. Chipotle Pepper steps down in class off an eight-week freshening and could bounce back. The top two choices appear clear-cut, with the bottom half of the ticket offering multiple viable options.
Race 5 – Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs, Dirt, 7:07 PM, $24,300 Purse
Win: 1 Docs Legend (86%)
Place: 8 Bozaano (29%)
Show: 2 Fracture (29%)
Alternative: 4 Caesarea (29%)
Notes: Docs Legend generates overwhelming consensus support, having finished just three-quarters of a length behind the winner in his last start at Mahoning Valley before a 36-week layoff. Bozaano narrowly missed as the favorite at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Fracture returns from an 81-week layoff with early promise shown. Caesarea placed at Mahoning Valley in his second start and finished fourth last out at Mountaineer. The strong consensus around Docs Legend suggests a potential single in multi-race wagers.
Race 6 – Allowance, 6 Furlongs, Dirt, 7:35 PM, $26,400 Purse
Win: 4 Khali J (86%)
Place: 1 She’s So Sexy (43%)
Show: 9 Vespera (43%)
Alternative: 5 Little Miss Munny (29%)
Notes: Khali J comes off the bench with an unbeaten two-for-two record and generates near-unanimous analyst support. She’s So Sexy won last start at Mahoning Valley and draws favorably to save ground. Vespera returns from eight weeks off with an unblemished record when favored. Little Miss Munny won at Presque Isle Downs and has placed twice at this venue. The top three are tightly bunched in the betting, but Khali J’s perfect record makes her the standout selection.
Race 7 – Allowance, 6 Furlongs, Dirt, 8:03 PM, $33,700 Purse
Win: 1 Curious Corn (100%)
Place: 4 Duo (43%)
Show: 7 Mobil Mission (29%)
Alternative: 9 P J’s Boy (29%)
Notes: Curious Corn achieves unanimous consensus support from all seven analysts, having won or placed in all three career starts while drawing the rail. This represents the strongest consensus of the entire card. Duo has shown promise in this class and could challenge for place honors. Professor Nick placed at long odds last start. Mobil Mission returns to a shorter distance. P J’s Boy returns from a 25-week layoff as a last-start maiden winner at Thistledown. Use Curious Corn as a key single in exotic wagers.
Race 8 – Allowance, 6 Furlongs, Dirt, 8:31 PM, $25,900 Purse
Win: 1 Truth N Soul (57%)
Place: 9 Couple Beers Deep (57%)
Show: 4 Bumpkin (29%)
Alternative: 7 Be An Eddie (29%)
Notes: Truth N Soul and Couple Beers Deep both broke maiden at Mahoning Valley in their last starts and receive equal support for win consideration. After Sunrise has been consistent at this level and attracted backing from some analysts. Bumpkin returns from eight weeks off after a runner-up finish at Thistledown. Be An Eddie also resumes from a layoff. This race presents a competitive finish with multiple legitimate win candidates, suggesting boxing the top three in exacta and trifecta structures.
Recommended Exotic Bets and Value Plays
Best Bets of the Day:
Pick Pony analysts identify Race 7 as the most bankable race with Curious Corn receiving 100% consensus support. Consider using this runner as a single in Pick 3, Pick 4, and Pick 5 sequences. Race 5 (Docs Legend at 86%) and Race 6 (Khali J at 86%) also represent strong standalone plays.
Daily Double (Races 7-8):
Key Curious Corn in the first leg with Truth N Soul, Couple Beers Deep, and After Sunrise in the second leg for a three-horse spread.
Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8):
Khali J to Curious Corn to Truth N Soul/Couple Beers Deep/After Sunrise provides solid structure. Consider adding She’s So Sexy and Vespera in Race 6 for deeper coverage.
Exacta Value Plays:
Race 1: Real Naughty over Shivaree and Puff’smagicdragon offers value if Shivaree regresses from the win streak.
Race 2: Pearl Magic over Our Lady Peace represents the most likely combination at reasonable odds.
Race 4: Reno Touch over Countryclub Couple with Chipotle Pepper included in boxes.
Trifecta Recommendations:
Race 5: Docs Legend with Bozaano, Fracture, and Caesarea for all positions below the key.
Race 7: Curious Corn keyed on top with Duo, Professor Nick, and P J’s Boy underneath.
Race 8: Box Truth N Soul, Couple Beers Deep, and After Sunrise for a competitive finish.
Superfecta Play:
Race 1 offers a competitive field where the top four consensus picks (Real Naughty, Shivaree, Puff’smagicdragon, Sudden Shift) could fill the superfecta in various orders at solid prices.
Value Longshot Alerts:
Race 3: Magically Vanished (9) at likely double-digit odds brings a two-race winning streak from Mountaineer.
Race 4: Computadora (1) received support from one analyst and could outrun odds from the rail.
Race 8: After Sunrise (8) at 5/2 morning line represents potential value against the two maiden winners.